NFC locks:
- San Francisco (West champ)
- Green Bay (North champ)
- Seattle (wildcard)
NFC bubble:
- Washington, New York, Dallas (could see any winning the East)
- Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay (could see any winning the South)
NFC longshots:
- St. Louis, Chicago, Minnesota
NFC hopeless:
- Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, Philadelphia
My picks: Atlanta (South champ), Dallas (East champ), New York (wildcard)
Commentary: Can't see San Francisco or Seattle getting left out, but I think it's at least a year early to project a big jump for St. Louis. Green Bay will cruise to the North title. The East and South will be so competitive it's hard to envision the second wildcard not coming from one of those races. My Dallas pick is sort of a shot in the dark as I'm literally projecting all three teams at 9-7 or 10-6. I think Atlanta will be just a little too much for New Orleans and an improved Tampa Bay. New York will squeak past Washington for second place and New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Washington will all be disappointingly left at home.
AFC locks:
- Denver (West champ)
- New England (East champ)
- Houston, Indianapolis (South champ, wildcard)
AFC bubble:
- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore (could see any winning the North; runner-up likely the second wildcard)
AFC longshots:
- Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, New York, Cleveland
AFC hopeless:
- Oakland, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Tennessee
My picks: Cincinnati (North champ), Pittsburgh (wildcard)
Commentary: Denver and New England are #4 and #5 in my power rankings and are in the same category as Green Bay for easy division titles. Houston and Indianapolis are so far ahead of Tennessee and Jacksonville that the South's second-place team feels like a wildcard lock (I think Indianapolis will jump Houston for first place). The North race is tied with the NFC East for most fascinating race. I think Cincinnati continues its steady rise and edges it out for first place. I think Pittsburgh has a bit of a wake-up season while Baltimore has a bit of a hangover season. But I could see both teams getting left home if one of my "longshot" teams can get to 9-7 or 10-6 and take the tiebreaker over the North loser.
[ Edited by LieutKaffee on May 8, 2013 at 2:09 AM ]