I'm a big believer in statistics predicting victory. As a result, I've built my own statistic for total performance:
Total Offensive Yards
Total Yards Allowed (-)
Net Punting Yards
Net Punting Yards Allowed
Forced Turnover Equivalent (# of turnovers x opp. net punting average)
PR yards allowed
Offensive Turnover Equivalent (# of turnovers x net punting average) (-)
field goal yards (I subtract 17 yds for every FG made, 7 yds for every FG missed)
penalty yards (-)
** I haven't factored in opp. FG yards yet, but I will **
** I haven't thrown in a couple of other stats as well, such as kickoff returns)
Based on those results, there is an extremely strong correlation between wins and what I call "total net real yards". The top 7 teams all made the playoffs, with Miami getting 55 yards per win. There's a drop-off after Philly (#7), with the next 4 teams (NO, NE, CAR, and TB) all being tied around -26/-27 (all within 1 pt of each other). The bottom of the list also mirrors the draft order very closely. Teams at the bottom perform exponentially worse per game than those at the top: St. Louis was 5x worse than Minnesota.
Here is the order: Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, San Diego Chargers, New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Detroit Lions.
So, what did Miami do? They played conservative football, forced turnovers, and kicked field goals. If you think about it, what really matters when you change possession is where the other team takes over. So, if you drive for 30 and punt for 30 (net), its the same as driving for 20 and punting for 40 (net). If you're netting 35 yards a punt, a turnover is like giving up 35 yards on defense.
So, if sing takes this approach, don't get mad if he runs a draw play on 3rd and 8. League-wide, 1 out of every 40 offensive plays will result in a turnover. Reducing risk by avoiding turnovers on 2nd and 3rd down is a logical step towards winning more ballgames.