There are 236 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

got a good research question for the zone regarding postion drafted

what position *mean position picked in the draft, 1st, 2nd...30th overall picked* in the draft has resulted in more pro bowl players... who knows the answer!?

edit
damnit ment to put this in nfl talk please move mods
[ Edited by sactomkiii on Aug 17, 2009 at 7:59 PM ]
  • ImaMod
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,482
Originally posted by sactomkiii:
what position *mean position picked in the draft, 1st, 2nd...30th overall picked* in the draft has resulted in more pro bowl players... who knows the answer!?

edit
damnit ment to put this in nfl talk please move mods

uhhhh.... i mean.... like....
Can you rephrase that so it is understandable.
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Can you rephrase that so it is understandable.

Of all the pro-bowlers ever drafted, what is their mean position taken in the draft?

It's sort of a way to judge where in the draft, on average, the best talent comes from.

Correct, sactomkiii?
  • alam
  • Info N/A
Just did some quick research with the 1994 draft. I chose '94 because A) it was the first year of the seven round format and B) it is very likely that the list of pro bowlers from that draft doesn't ever change...considering it's doubtful that many players will make the pro bowl for the first time coming into their 15th year.

Anyway, the results:

Total # of pro bowlers: 29
Undrafted pro bowlers: 5
Lowest picked pro bowler: 2 (Marshall Faulk)
Highest picked pro bowler: 218 (Tom Nalen)
Mean: 71.96
Median: 34.5

Mean and median don't include the undrafted players of course, but I don't think that's a very significant measure of anything to be honest. Here's a breakdown of the pro-bowlers by round:

Round 1: 34%
Round 2: 21%
Round 3: 3%
Round 4: 0
Round 5: 7%
Round 6: 7%
Round 7: 10%
Undrafted: 17%

There was a significant drop off after the midway point of round 2. After Larry Allen was drafted at 46, only 9 pro bowlers were selected in the remaining 176 picks.

CONCLUSION: After the initial pool of hot prospects, which in this draft must have been about 50, the draft is an absolute crapshoot in terms of finding pro-bowl quality talent. What intrigues me about this mini-study is that the number of pro bowlers per round actually increased after round 4, and that the undrafted players were the third most prolific pool. It's hard to judge the quality of picks in these later rounds since I don't have more data such as career length or # of starts...but it MIGHT say one thing: late round "project" players (character risks, position changes, small schoolers...etc) are more likely to be home runs than mid-round "safe" picks.

That was fun :)
[ Edited by alam on Aug 17, 2009 at 8:58 PM ]
^^ Before you can draw conclusions with any shred of confidence, you have to use a bigger sample size than one draft.

-9fA
  • alam
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:
^^ Before you can draw conclusions with any shred of confidence, you have to use a bigger sample size than one draft.

-9fA

I know. Forgot to mention that :p Don't feel like doing more, though
Originally posted by pantstickle:
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Can you rephrase that so it is understandable.

Of all the pro-bowlers ever drafted, what is their mean position taken in the draft?

It's sort of a way to judge where in the draft, on average, the best talent comes from.

Correct, sactomkiii?

exactly... sorry for the wording guys I have to quit drinking and posting lol
Got it. I would have to say the first round because over time there are so many players beyond the 1st round who don't make it.
I would guess that the highest number of Pro Bowl players go in the pick 5-15 range. I feel like those players are all elite and proven enough, yet don't face the same pressures of a top 5 pick.

Also as subjective and political as the Pro Bowl is, top 5 teams are bad teams, and bad teams don't send players to the Pro Bowl (since voters and fans aren't passionate about bad teams). Look at the Cowboys 2 years ago for a prime example (sending Roy Williams, and just about every Olineman to the Pro Bowl just because they were a good and large market team).

In addition, much like the stock market, voter sentiment is subject to meeting expectations. If a top 5 pick isn't phenomenal they are a dissaponintment, making voters view the athlete negatively and as less of a talent than they actually are. A 5 to 15 pick type player, will laso have high expectations, just not as unrealistically high due to a lower draft spot and significantly lower payroll.
[ Edited by 49oz2superbowl on Aug 18, 2009 at 11:51 AM ]
im pretty sure he asked which individually pick in the 1st round makes pro bowls most often. like "the 4th overall pick in the 1st round has made the pro bowl at some point in their career X amount of times"

and then seeing which 1st round slot has been the most pro bowl successful. i beleive thats what he said up top. its possible to come up with an answer, but its a couple hours of work sifting thought draft results from 1994-2007 or whatever.

and the slot in which the most pro bowl players are taking in the first, lets say its pick 11, is more of just a coincidence that it is something you strategize for.
Originally posted by sactomkiii:
what position *mean position picked in the draft, 1st, 2nd...30th overall picked* in the draft has resulted in more pro bowl players... who knows the answer!?

edit
damnit ment to put this in nfl talk please move mods

Once upon a time, I stumbled on a website that had that info and if I can find it again I will try and post the link. It's been a year at least since I found it. It listed % of picks by round and even undrafted free agent info.
I'm back and although at first search I didn't find exactly what I was looking for
this website have the % of starters by position in relation to where they were drafted.
Sorry I couldn't find exactly what I was looking for but I'm at work and was searching during my lunch hour.[http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2006/draft-position]
Originally posted by Born49R:
I'm back and although at first search I didn't find exactly what I was looking for
this website have the % of starters by position in relation to where they were drafted.
Sorry I couldn't find exactly what I was looking for but I'm at work and was searching during my lunch hour.[http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2006/draft-position]

Back again and beating my head on the wall because I still haven't found the site I stumbled on. But this draft info is interesting from ESPN.[url=null]null[/url] http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/wrapup/070425&sportCat=nfl