MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Thanks MD, your analysis is always appreciated

Well, we certainly have a provocative thread here...

Not sure who said it but getting 6 guys in MD's Top 108 seems like a pretty good haul to me. I understand why MD grades certain guys down, and i agree with him that Reid will almost certainly end up at SS in a year or two (and will probably be great in that role). However, unless the coaches can really work wonders with this guy, the team still really needs a true FS....and trading up to 18 to get a future SS, even a really good one, seems like a bit of a reach. This leads me to believe that the team feels they can coach him back to his 2011 level, which was very high. One last thing about Reid... He was a team captain this year and was playing with essentially an all new defensive backfield. The point is that I think he probably tried to do a bit too much. I can't prove that but it is what I'm surmising.

Unlike MD, though, I'm cool with the McDonald pick. I just think he has a boatload of untapped talent which the Niners are going to tap. In 2 years that guy is going to be a stud. The Dial pick I like too because the dude is very athletic for his size...and he is extremely big. That guy is as big as 2 refrigerators put side by side...and unlike them, he can move. He is very very raw of course as MD pointed out, but again, he has true talent, and that shouldn't be underestimated with the quality of this coaching staff.

All of that stated, I do have a big problem with this draft in that a pretty glaring need has still gone unmet...a very quick CB that can cover the slot receivers that have suddenly sprung up all over the place...especially in the NFC West! Maybe the Niners feel like they can just hit the crap out of those slot guys at the LOS and just knock them off their routes with all the big corners they have now. Not sure that will be an effective strategy all of the time though. I'm hoping that T Brown can fill that role and that they move Rogers, who proved he couldn't hang with the slot guys, back out on the edge where he was so effective in 2011.

Any good slot cover CBs left in free agency?

Great job as always, MD... Always enjoy reading your stuff. Keep it comin'!

Cheers!

maddog always has his opinions, which are well thought out and supported by a reasoning he explains well
but we have to remember nniners have access to so much more info than even the most diligent of draftniks have...not only the medicals but the combine interviews
i have read that some scouts were of the impression that football really isnt that important to tyler eifert, that he plays it mainly because he is good at it--one characteristic i found in descriptions of the niners 2013 draft class is that football is important to them

i read everything i can on the draft and buy all the magazines and must confess i had never heard of nick moody, carter bychowski and marcus cooper before their names flashed on the tv as the niners picks--but i never heard of eric johnson before walsh took him out of yale in the 6 th round
alaways look forward to reading maddogs comments but ill go with baalke herer

Stopped reading at desperation honestly.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

31. Tank Carradine-DE
34. Justin Hunter- WR
61. Jesse Williams-NT/DE
74. BW Webb-CB
93. Phillip Thomas-S
128. Quinton Patton-WR
131. Cornelius Washington-OLB
157. Josh Evans-S
173. David Quessenberry-OT/G
180. Rex Burkhead-RB
237. Reid Fragel-OT
246. Marcus Cromartie-CB
252. Lucas Reed-TE

I give myself an "A" grade...of course, these were my picks.

Gotta admit it's hard to knock that haul, too. Actually, if both your version and the real version showed up in here as posters' mocks in the week before the draft, they both would have gotten thumbs up from just about everyone. Yours would get knocked for not adequately addressing TE, but you came away with two safeties that a lot of people wanted as well as two of the draft's top WRs, an NT that a lot of people wanted, a promising slot CB, and a highly rated OT. Not to mention Tank Carradine, who shows up either way.

The difference between the two versions in five years will come down to the gap between Reid and Thomas/Evans, as well as Lattimore's rehab and whether McDonald becomes a stud TE. The battle of mid-round pass rushers Lemonier and Washington (both were very popular in mocks around here, actually) will be fun to track through their careers as well. I would say the real-life 49ers swung for the fences more than your draft. More star power, more boom-or-bust and upside.

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:

Gotta admit it's hard to knock that haul, too. Actually, if both your version and the real version showed up in here as posters' mocks in the week before the draft, they both would have gotten thumbs up from just about everyone. Yours would get knocked for not adequately addressing TE, but you came away with two safeties that a lot of people wanted as well as two of the draft's top WRs, an NT that a lot of people wanted, a promising slot CB, and a highly rated OT. Not to mention Tank Carradine, who shows up either way.

The difference between the two versions in five years will come down to the gap between Reid and Thomas/Evans, as well as Lattimore's rehab and whether McDonald becomes a stud TE. The battle of mid-round pass rushers Lemonier and Washington (both were very popular in mocks around here, actually) will be fun to track through their careers as well. I would say the real-life 49ers swung for the fences more than your draft. More star power, more boom-or-bust and upside.

I agree it's more boom or bust. If Tank is a monster the draft will go down as great. Reid is a heady player that brings the wood and Patton is not a reach. Lattimore is with the perfect team. This draft may come down to the advancements in the medical field.

Every year we so call reach for a player. AD was a reach, Aldon was a reach, Colin was a reach, Culliver was a reach. Yet for all these players Trent so called reach for, not one of them a year after is considered a reach. Trent drafts who Trent and Jim want, they don't care if they reach for a guy it's better to reach and get the guy you want than to not reach and miss out on the guy. I liked all his picks and don't think one was a reach. We don't need a Cb everyone thinks we do, we have 6 guys who will make the roster at Cb, everyone says well the secondary sucked in the playoffs. I'll tell you what when the entire front 7 was injured yeah the back half is going to look like crap, the only guy not injured was willis. So in a year when we talk about this draft all the people who think we reached as in the years past will be like ok maybe we didn't and trent was right...

First off i enjoyed reading the write-up.

I actually love the Reid pick. I had a feeling he was higher on team's big board then the media thought. Anyways to each his own.

I was thinking about the Tank pick. I think everyone on here loves it including me but I just can't help to think how high was Tank really on the 49ers big board? If he was high then i doubt we traded back 6 slots especially considering the teams between 34 and 40 (Philly, Cincy and the NYJ) were all arguably looking for a pass rusher.

Time and time again you waste your time writing nonsense. I'm glad you're not our GM cause you would run us right into the ground straight into hell. Bottom line, you don't know S#%T!

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
MD, do you have examples of players that lead you to believe so strongly in statistical regression as a red flag against a prospect? I've heard some in the draftnik community say almost the opposite. Since football scouting is necessarily the victim of small sample sizes, you can actually find a steal by going deeper into the tape and looking further into the past and taking a guy whose stock dropped based on later games. After all, if he was good enough to produce once upon a time, the NFL coaching staff should be able to get him producing again.

In other words, why do you believe statistical regression in college is such a strong indication of lack of ability or lack of potential?

You nailed it. There can be numerous reasons why a player's statistics drop off one season to the next. For instance, Aldon Smith battled injuries during his last season in college and his statistics fell because of it (tackles went from 44 to 8 and sacks from 11.5 to 3).

There appears to be outside circumstances for Eric Reid as well. After the 2011 season, LSU lost its two top corners (Claiborne and Matthieu), a DL in the 1st round, and 2 other mid-round DBs. The team's coverage abilities took a major hit as a result of losing so much talent. One possible explanation is that Reid's stats took a hit because he had to focus on covering up to his new teammates rather than making plays.

MD, you self admittedly have ZERO COACHES TAPE...so how can you analyze any DB's without the coaches tape??? safe to say your opinion on db's is a pure guess and you really can't say for sure????

Originally posted by BleedRednGold:

Time and time again you waste your time writing nonsense. I'm glad you're not our GM cause you would run us right into the ground straight into hell. Bottom line, you don't know S#%T!

That will cost you. Write something like that again and it will be your last day on the board. PM me if you dont understand.

Great thread and many posts are really interesting!

Among them: LieutK and Rum53 beat me to the point about reasons for a drop in production. With the loss of Sop and RJF the niners may not be as strong in the middle...do we blame Willis? Team sports make difficult analysis of individual performance.

Great points Buck--Boldin and the 3rd pick next year should increase this draft's grade and medicals are not the only reason for J Williams drop. It seems he is a very odd duck and perhaps his interviews turned teams off?

My major disagreement with you MD is on McDonald. What I have read indicates he has good hands and is an excellent route runner...VD's weaknesses when he came into the NFL. I see McDonald as the logical counterbalance to VD. He is big, strong and was not asked to block much because he was too valuable as a receiver. I did not like the choice until I settled on the idea that VD is a better blocker than escape valve for the QB, making blocking and longer routes his forte.

Thanks for all the work you put into the draft! Always appreciate your well written posts.

Edit: forgot AB's point about $$! Philadelphia found out how painful it can be to tie up too much money in one area, and perhaps that is why Eifert was less attractive.

Always enjoy reading your take, even tho I don't agree with it all the time.

First, I'd like to point out that it appears Baalke likes to draft players with
prototype size and speed with high upside, with the exception of last
year, where he seemed to draft for speed. He has faith in the coaches
to develop these players, as he should.

1. Reid- I think the 49ers had Vaccaro and Reid as the top tier safeties
in the draft, and went up and got their man. Free safety was our
weakest link and i believe he would've been selected by the bears,
rams or by the cowboys if we didn't trade up. Even the ravens might
of leapfrogged us. He reminds me a lot of Goldson early in his career
in that he sometimes takes wrong angles or misses tackles he should make.
High character guy, while Vaccaro had a couple run ins with the law.
Do agree that he will be eventually moved to SS.

2. Tank- Love the pick too

2. McDonald- Agree he has a high upside and harbaugh has shown
he can develop that position. Questionable hands could be
a problem with the way Kap throws the fastball. Probably the pick
I question the most, but I believe he can eventually be an upgrade
on Walker. Could be a great red zone target.

3. Lemonier- love this pick. Brings more speed off the edge than anybody
we currently had. Good compliment. Agree that he
needs to improve his hands and learn how to finish better.

4. Patton- great value. I knew a really good receiver would fall,
just due to the fact that the 2nd tier of receivers was extremely
deep this year.

4. Lattimore- This just made sense. Got a really good player
we can stash on PUP.

5. Dial- space eater that has the versatility to play all 3 positions.
And unlike KLM, will be fully healthy by training camp. And didn't
play next to 2 potential 1st round picks in Nix and Truitt, which might
inflatted his stats.

All in all, I gotta say I prefer Baalkes draft. To get 6 players who, IMO,
can be starters in this league is incredible. As you, I would've liked to
get another safety, slot corner/punt returner and another o-lineman, but
thats just being nitpicky.

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Here's the fallacy in your reasoning. The bolded is absolutely correct. You and the 49ers agree: TE was a need. And yet they still took Reid over Eifert at 18! That should tell you all you need to know, which is this: You believe Eifert was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point. The 49ers believe Reid was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point.

This isn't a disagreement over strategy or philosophy; it's a simply disagreement in evaluation. Now here's hoping the 49ers were more correct than you this time around, Reid becomes a better safety than Eifert does a tight end.

Both, IMHO would have been great picks for us. I personally wanted Ertz with our second pick and Fleener over AJ last year. That said, let's be real here. In order, our top needs were FS, DE and TE. And we nailed it. The FS is going to play 100% of the time. The DE is going to play, maybe, 50% of the time and we all know the 2nd TE is going to play 50% of the time. If we didn't have Davis already as the #1 TE, then I'd agree with Eifert. But we needed a more "complementary" TE who can line up out of the Q, in the slot, on the LOS, in short yardage, big target in the RZ/EZ, etc. We needed a a guy to be that swiss army knife again since the departure of Walker so Davis can be free in the secondary. Roman is in love with this guy.

So when you factor the specific role the 2nd TE is going to play within our offense, Reid is the clear choice here followed by the DE and then TE.