MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
The Niners draft through 4 rounds was an A.. They hit on major needs, got great value with Tank, Patton, and Lattimore, and picked up a 3rd rounder in a strong 2014 draft. Seriously, its almost impossible to see how this would grade anything lower. Now, I wasnt crazy about the draft from the 5th round down but honestly I dont know the guys who were selected there so its impossible for me to truly judge these picks. I will simply have to trust guys who know MORE than anyone in here.

Would I have liked a speedy corner? Sure. But, I think the need for a corner is much greater in the 2014 draft and will be addressed.

I respect the work MD does but I just think its impossible for him to give the Niners a truly high grade if they pick guys that dont match his feelings. I just wonder how many times he actually watched any of the Niners picks in the last 3 rounds.

Agreed with John. Although Reid may have been a reach at 18, it looks as if other teams did not feel that way and the Niners knew they had to jump up to take him. Tank is a great value pick. Vance McDonald, one of my favorite prospects in this draft, is extremely underrated. Unlike what MadDog said, I feel that McDonald has very good hands and could be all over the field for us due to his versatility.

Sure, we didn't grab any corners early, but what we did was added more to the front 7 with guys to rush the passer. That, alone, will help out our pass coverage.

Originally posted by lamontb:
I don't think Brown works in the slot b/c he doesn't turn his hips quickly to run with wr's That's why they keep him on the outside. Same with Culliver. rogers is best suited for it I just don't think he has the speed left in the tank. Covering the slot is gonna be a issue just like it was last year if the pass rush isn't hitting home. Teams might want to get big corners like Seattle the problem is they aren't good like Seattle corners.

You may be right here about Brown/Rogers. I agree about Rogers...his issue seems more to do with his mindset and motivation. Ever notice how he plays harder once he gets burned and the spot light is on him?

Well, let's be honest here...Seattle CB's and S's are allowed to do whatever they want w/o recourse, unless they are playing IN Washington. With the aforementioned lineup and the shift to bigger, more physical CB's, we may be able to match up like this esp. if we establish that THAT is who we are now...refs identify with that and tend to give more leeway. Also, with more 4-man DL and rotation and an even greater emphasis on pass rush front the front 7, playing tighter up at the LOS and jamming the $%^& out of WR's means they don't have to cover very long and results in more PD's, INT's and disrupting of routes. But we'll need great range by our S's for over-the-top help just in case a WR breaks through the press and gets wide open. Insert Reid.

Originally posted by AB83Rules:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I can't see how taking Eifert would of worked. We have to look financially at this. We aren't gonna pay 2 TEs top dollar in 4 years, because both would be young and still in prime. Plus what does it say to Vernon, if we draft a TE 18?

I always stress, draft for need, but not always the same position under the new CBA, that option, and paying top 10 and top 20 kills you. It makes more sense to draft a WR then a TE, since most teams carry between 5 and 6 WRs each year.

Money comes into this big time, and needs, Reid was a higher need then a 2nd TE.

AB looking at dollars and cents. No surprise. Davis is entering his 8th year in 2013, and I am not sure there is another big payday out there for him. He'll be 32 when he hits free agency in 2016. Have to see how his body holds up over the next three years.

As for selecting Eifert, I was playing devil's advocate with the 18th pick. I didn't want the trade up, but if you are making that move, pick the best guy. NE has shown that they can be a serious headache with two monster TEs on the field at the same time. You burn that contract bridge when you get to it, I would say. Pick the best player.

I always look at it from a financial aspect . I think we had our guy(Reid) rated higher. Baalke said he had the deal agreed to contingent on Reid being there at 18, and the Cowboys wanted to still do the trade.

Idk, I like the pick, I thought the trade up was weird, but I'm cool with it. We got a good FS to be next to whitner, then whoever we add to take over for Whitner.

I'm with AB on this.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by LieutKaffee:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Here's the fallacy in your reasoning. The bolded is absolutely correct. You and the 49ers agree: TE was a need. And yet they still took Reid over Eifert at 18! That should tell you all you need to know, which is this: You believe Eifert was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point. The 49ers believe Reid was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point.

This isn't a disagreement over strategy or philosophy; it's a simply disagreement in evaluation. Now here's hoping the 49ers were more correct than you this time around, Reid becomes a better safety than Eifert does a tight end.

Excellent points you make, Lieut.

MD's entitled to his opinion though, and can give out whatever grades he wants.

Fact is that Baalke has access to coaches film, and has had the time to study quite a bit of it, while MD has stated that he is limited to utube and to whatever video clips might be available on the interwebs, plus he has to study them on his free time, as a hobby. So ultimately Baalke's evaluation of the players in the draft is based on much more information, and is likely to be more accurate and more complete.

Two years ago, for example, MD gave the Niners a "C-" for drafting Aldon Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, Kilgore, and Miller. He was highly critical not only of the Aldon Smith selection, but also of the second round selection of some QB named Kaepernick. Baalke should have taken a QB named Jackson much later, in the 6th or 7th round, and would have gotten equal value, according to MD back then.

Based on that history, it seems wiser to trust Baalke's evaluation of talent over MD's.

Kudos to MD, however, for raising the issues he raises and for giving us all an opportunity to better understand what Baalke does in the draft.

MD's "draft review" every year always makes for an interesting read and challenges us all to think critically about the Niner's draft selections.

Nothing wrong with that. IMHO.

Great points all around. I don't agree with MD's assessment as well. I think he believes he knows more then he does.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by lamontb:
I don't think Brown works in the slot b/c he doesn't turn his hips quickly to run with wr's That's why they keep him on the outside. Same with Culliver. rogers is best suited for it I just don't think he has the speed left in the tank. Covering the slot is gonna be a issue just like it was last year if the pass rush isn't hitting home. Teams might want to get big corners like Seattle the problem is they aren't good like Seattle corners.

You may be right here about Brown/Rogers. I agree about Rogers...his issue seems more to do with his mindset and motivation. Ever notice how he plays harder once he gets burned and the spot light is on him?

Well, let's be honest here...Seattle CB's and S's are allowed to do whatever they want w/o recourse, unless they are playing IN Washington. With the aforementioned lineup and the shift to bigger, more physical CB's, we may be able to match up like this esp. if we establish that THAT is who we are now...refs identify with that and tend to give more leeway. Also, with more 4-man DL and rotation and an even greater emphasis on pass rush front the front 7, playing tighter up at the LOS and jamming the $%^& out of WR's means they don't have to cover very long and results in more PD's, INT's and disrupting of routes. But we'll need great range by our S's for over-the-top help just in case a WR breaks through the press and gets wide open. Insert Reid.

No matter what his ranking was in this draft, Reid appears to be bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter than Goldson. Once he gets some NFL experience, he's gonna be an upgrade at the FS position. IMHO.

And I think you're correct about Rogers--at least part of the problem is motivation. He's got the physical tools and the experience/knowledge needed to cover the slot, he just doesn't always seem to be motivated, doesn't always seem to work as hard at it as he should. Let's see if Asomugha doesn't give him a little competition this year.

Originally posted by AmpLee:

I think you factor in the contract as well as the players. We are getting proven commodities at WR2 and QB2 at fair market value, for low draft picks. It's a positive effect that came from our selection of choices. I would most certainly consider it. In fact, it's consideration is hardly debatable; those traded picks must be accounted for.

For what it's worth, I loved the Boldin acquisition. It was a stellar part of our offseason. But to me it's effectively a free agent signing (in spirit), and has almost nothing to do with the draft (in spite of the fact that it involved a draft pick). I feel it's disingenuous to include it as part of our draft grade, because it artificially boosts our grade.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
No matter what his ranking was in this draft, Reid appears to be bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter than Goldson. Once he gets some NFL experience, he's gonna be an upgrade at the FS position. IMHO.

And I think you're correct about Rogers--at least part of the problem is motivation. He's got the physical tools and the experience/knowledge needed to cover the slot, he just doesn't always seem to be motivated, doesn't always seem to work as hard at it as he should. Let's see if Asomugha doesn't give him a little competition this year.

I'm with you here...his IQ with a 29 Wonderlic score would suggest as much. I love that he was just as interested to go to NY to learn more about the stock market as he was being drafted by the 49ers. LOL. I have a feeling this kid could end up being very special and a much better center fielder over Goldson. Don't be surprised to see him leading our secondary and wearing the dot on his helmet very soon.

Nnamdi, a starting CB spot is yours for the taking! Beware Rogers...you've been placed on alert.

Thinks MD for your draft analysis. I was waiting for it. Personally, I think it is the best analysis that we can get as a 49er fan (other paid analysts may know about the draft in general, but they don't know the 49ers as well).

I don't see why MD gets such strong opinions on this board. I posted my draft analysis as well,as did many others. I didn't see anyone tell me that I don't know what I am talking about (which would be accurate). MD is just posting his opinion like everyone else.

It seems to me that Baalke et. al. use physical skills, intelligence, and (perhaps) attitude along with performance in ranking college players. You look at past selections such as CK or AS that appeared to be reaches because of performance and yet the 49ers valued them more highly than pundits did. It certainly seems to be the case in this draft.

Also, I wonder what grade the 49ers would have gotten from MD had they selected Tank in the first (say, by trading up to the 22nd pick using the 1st and 3rd) and Reid in the second.

Originally posted by fryet:
Thinks MD for your draft analysis. I was waiting for it. Personally, I think it is the best analysis that we can get as a 49er fan (other paid analysts may know about the draft in general, but they don't know the 49ers as well).

I don't see why MD gets such strong opinions on this board. I posted my draft analysis as well,as did many others. I didn't see anyone tell me that I don't know what I am talking about (which would be accurate). MD is just posting his opinion like everyone else.

Probably because you didnt give yourself an A and give the Niners a B-. LOL Maddog brings this on every year when he basically thinks his drafts would be far better than Baalke's. He may know more than most of us in here but he sure doesnt know more than the Niners front office guys.

I actually enjoy reading Maddogs posts. Some are quite informative.

Originally posted by daragon:
Great points all around. I don't agree with MD's assessment as well. I think he believes he knows more then he does.

You better watch it. The MOD POLICE will get you for saying things like that about BS...I mean MD.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

No doubt there must have been some red flags with medicals. At the same time, the team took some risks with Carradine and Lattimore. Hoperfully, they psn out

The red flag was probably immaturity--if I had to guess

Here's what I think...any draft grades are just a waste of time at this point. Not picking on MD, but anyone who does it at this stage, because they're really meaningless 'til the rookies go through camp, preseason and and at least one or two regular seasons before there's enough pro data to justify whatever rating you give them. Players develop at different paces...some will impress the first season, some maybe not 'til their 2nd or even 3rd. That said, I think you underestimated the potential of Reid, McDonald & Lemonier. Only time will tell, and that's the key to draft evaluations...time. I'm also really intrigued by Dial...stats in his case mean little, because he was primarily a b/u at Alabama. But his size, versatility and playing attitude should give Tomsula a lot to work with.

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by BleedRednGold:

Time and time again you waste your time writing nonsense. I'm glad you're not our GM cause you would run us right into the ground straight into hell. Bottom line, you don't know S#%T!

That will cost you. Write something like that again and it will be your last day on the board. PM me if you dont understand.

Is this the Stanford Experiment all over again? Give nobody's some sense of power and they think they can do anything they want. Well if this is the last one ill make it count. I'll tell you as well you don't know s**t either. f**k you and the other jack ass that knows more about jack and s**t MadDog.

31. Tank Carradine-DE
34. Justin Hunter- WR
61. Jesse Williams-NT/DE
74. BW Webb-CB
93. Phillip Thomas-S

I like some of these guys and I can see this for a team building for the future. I do not think it makes sense for a team knocking on the door, however. SB opportunities do not come along often. When you are on the door step and have one glaring need, you fill that need. You do not throw a fourth round developmental guy from a small conference out there and hope it works out. Nor do you sign a 45 year old guy and hope he can find the fountain of youth. You get the low risk high upside SEC guy and give your team the best opportunity to win now.

To the 49ers credit, they were able to get plenty of value picks after round one including lots of guys with upside. None of these, however, were critical to the success of the team this season. A replacement for Goldston was always going to be the overwhelming priority and addressing this was always going to happen in round one. This is the way it was done and should have been done.