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MadDog's 2013 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by AllTimeGreat:
I would have taken Kelce over Jesse Williams in your draft. Given how often we are in the nickel, I think we are fine with Dorsey and Ian Williams at that position. Plus, I have to think that Williams' medicals were pretty bad. Obviously we don't have access to the medicals, but when you're grading the draft after the fact you have to take into account what happened during the draft: and it's obvious that his medical issues were concerning enough that he dropped to the 5th round. Given the red flags, to take him at the end of the 2nd round would be very bad value.
No doubt there must have been some red flags with medicals. At the same time, the team took some risks with Carradine and Lattimore. Hoperfully, they psn out
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AllTimeGreat:
I would have taken Kelce over Jesse Williams in your draft. Given how often we are in the nickel, I think we are fine with Dorsey and Ian Williams at that position. Plus, I have to think that Williams' medicals were pretty bad. Obviously we don't have access to the medicals, but when you're grading the draft after the fact you have to take into account what happened during the draft: and it's obvious that his medical issues were concerning enough that he dropped to the 5th round. Given the red flags, to take him at the end of the 2nd round would be very bad value.
No doubt there must have been some red flags with medicals. At the same time, the team took some risks with Carradine and Lattimore. Hoperfully, they psn out
My point was that I don't know how you can give yourself an A for your draft knowing what we now know about Williams.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I see you conveniently left off that Dial had more solo tackles and more tackles for loss than Williams in 2012. All I am saying is that you throw out numbers for Dial and say it should be higher to justify your grade and then ignore numbers for JW. Cant have it both ways.

NT;s in 34 alignments are not going to pad a ton of stats. They are almost always double-teamed, so the 34 DE should naturally have more numbers, which Dial does in solo tackles and tackles for loss , but not in overall tackles.In the end, Williams had nearly twice the amount of tackles in 2012 as Dial. And, as stated before, Kapron Lewis Moore has far more production than Dial did in the same role.

I'm sure you must have seen in your your research that Jesse Williams played DE in their 3-4 as well as DT during his time at Alabama.

Jesse Williams had medical issues that were known to everyone but the mock selectors. Patton has a good shot to be the third wideout. Jenkins must show early (like in now) if he wants a roster spot.
Looks like you and I are on the same page MD. Didn't like most of the trades, didn't like the Reid pick at that number, didn't like the McDonald pick, wasn't big on Lemonier.


To me there are 2 ways to go back and look at this. 1) pick as though no trades are made, and 2) Pick as though the trades are made but take your guy. Of course, you can't use knowledge of where guys eventually went to affect your picks. You can only go off your board and what had happened in the draft so far. I'll ignore everything after #150 for time's sake. Personally:


No Trades:
31 Elam
34 Woods
61 Okafor
74 Allen
93 Brandon Williams
128 Lattimore
131 Toilolo


With the trades:
18 Eifert
40 Woods
55 Okafor
88 Duke Williams
128 Lattimore
131 Jesse Williams


My ideal world lies somewhere between those two. I don't like the TE from theno-trade scenario and I'm not super happy with the Safety situation in the trade scenario.
Eric Reid will have a better year than Vaccaro. Unless Eifert starts over Gresham, he and McDonald (or Celek, whoever is the #2) will have pretty similar stats.
Woohoo!!! We finally broke the barrier and got a B from MadDog!

Great work this year, man. Much appreciated. I feel like this draft will prove to be a home run for us. Now get back to work, because I'm expecting your 2014 big board to be up by Tuesday.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
If the team if moving up to 18, get a player than matches the value. The pick should have been Tyler Eifert, who is going to be a stud in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals should send a Thank You card to the Niners for Christmas. The Niners obviously saw need at TE, as they selected McDonald 37 picks later. They should have picked up the best player on the board at that point, Eifert.

Here's the fallacy in your reasoning. The bolded is absolutely correct. You and the 49ers agree: TE was a need. And yet they still took Reid over Eifert at 18! That should tell you all you need to know, which is this: You believe Eifert was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point. The 49ers believe Reid was a better prospect and therefore BPA at that point.

This isn't a disagreement over strategy or philosophy; it's a simply disagreement in evaluation. Now here's hoping the 49ers were more correct than you this time around, Reid becomes a better safety than Eifert does a tight end.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Great work this year, man. Much appreciated. I feel like this draft will prove to be a home run for us. Now get back to work, because I'm expecting your 2014 big board to be up by Tuesday.

This
first, lattimore already came back from one nasty acl, and was back in form in record time. second, he has already amazed many with his "ahead of schedule " progress from this one. next, not only did latti not play four years, as you stated, but in fact he only played one full year, and only half of two other seasons. so he really only has two full years worth of hits on his body. he has superb vision, and is one of the toughest rb's i've ever seen. he is patient to let the holes open for him, and is one of the hardest rb's to bring down when he finds it. just ask uga! some people want to say he's injury prone, but that just isn't true. both times he got hurt were freak accidents. it wasn't his body breaking down. this is one of the classiest people in sports, let alone football. so anytime you award a grade that is less than an a+ to latti, expect many of us to come after you. this kid was the best rb in the draft, and the 49ers got a steal with him. even if he can't play immediately, which there is no need for that anyway, he will become one of the best players and people on this team.
[ Edited by stevae on Apr 28, 2013 at 10:52 PM ]
stopped reading at "the Dog"
Thanks for all the work and analysis, MD. Definitely one of the attractions of following the draft in here.
  • buck
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by AllTimeGreat:
I would have taken Kelce over Jesse Williams in your draft. Given how often we are in the nickel, I think we are fine with Dorsey and Ian Williams at that position. Plus, I have to think that Williams' medicals were pretty bad. Obviously we don't have access to the medicals, but when you're grading the draft after the fact you have to take into account what happened during the draft: and it's obvious that his medical issues were concerning enough that he dropped to the 5th round. Given the red flags, to take him at the end of the 2nd round would be very bad value.
No doubt there must have been some red flags with medicals. At the same time, the team took some risks with Carradine and Lattimore. Hoperfully, they psn out

We should not assume that medicals were the only reason or even the major reason that Jessie Williams dropped.

Since the team was willing to draft both Carradine and Lattimore with their medical problems, it might be more logical to argue that Jessie Williams fall was not simply because of the medicals. It is hard to imagine that his medical problems are more complicated than Lattimore's.

MD, do you have examples of players that lead you to believe so strongly in statistical regression as a red flag against a prospect? I've heard some in the draftnik community say almost the opposite. Since football scouting is necessarily the victim of small sample sizes, you can actually find a steal by going deeper into the tape and looking further into the past and taking a guy whose stock dropped based on later games. After all, if he was good enough to produce once upon a time, the NFL coaching staff should be able to get him producing again.

In other words, why do you believe statistical regression in college is such a strong indication of lack of ability or lack of potential?
  • buck
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Some pundits, when discussing the Seattle draft, are counting the Percy Harvin trade as part of their draft and raising their draft grade.

If we were to look at the trade for Anquan Boldin as part of our draft, and I am saying that we should, we could almost certainly assume any grade given would be at somewhat higher.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 28, 2013 at 11:14 PM ]