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Mock Draft - First 130 Picks and explanations

Hey Niner fans - I've been a dedicated follower on this board for the past 11+ years for the draft and I thought it was about time I shared my mock. I read what everyone writes on the net, watch highlights (youtube, espn, DVR) and have a couple friends in the industry to teach me what to look for. With that said, overall, I am just like everyone else... a huge fan but not really sure how this will turn out. I tried to do my best on a combination of BPA and team needs. This is not my ideal mock by any means for the Niners so no need to say you don't like my personal picks for them... I'm just trying to guess how the front office might go. For example, I think J. Williams shouldn't be drafted in the first 3 rounds because he offers zero pash rush and in this new passing/mobile quarterback league I feel he will not be an impact player the first 2 rounds require. Please feel free to share your thoughts though. Also, I know I'm going against the grain with OT being the first 3 picks but I can see it happening if the top 2 are tackles and other teams feel like moving up or Oak just realizes they get a player that can start tomorrow I rely on a big board I put together that I can also post if anyone wants to see - nothing too fancy but why I say BPA a few times.

At the very least I feel like this can give somebody something to read as I do everyday. Have at it (I apologize for spelling errors)...

1 kc Luke Joeckel OT *Better instincts than Fisher. No RT and Albert may be traded.
2 jax Eric Fisher OT *More upside than Joeckel and said he is willing to start at RT. Eugene Monroe is their only tackle with some respect and only 1 year left.
3 oak Lane Johnson OT *Traded for Flynn and already have Pryor. Either way they need to protect their investments.
4 phi Dion Jordan DE *Reunited with his coach to help the conversion to a 3-4
5 det *Dee Milliner CB *Det is a passing team but they can't stop the pass on defense. Potential solution
6 cle Geno Smith QB *Best QB is still here and Lombardi is supposedly not the biggest fan of Weeden.
7 ari Chance Warmack OG *Must protect Palmer but no top tackles available. This will help the pass protection inside and still solidify the run.
8 buf *Sharrif Floyd DT *BPA. Attempt to fix a horrible D from last year. Williams, Williams, Darreus and Floyd seems like a pretty terrifying front to me
9 nyj Star Lotulelei DT *BPA. Star could make an impact right now and what Rex Ryan needs to save his job.
10 ten *Sheldon Richardson DT *BPA. He looks like he will make an impact against the pass and can handle the run.
11 sd *Jarvis Jones OLB *SD need pass rush help and Jones' tape is better than is workout numbers.
12 mia *Xavier Rhodes CB *Lose one big corner and replace him with another - the D knows how to use big corners
13 nyj Desmond Trufant CB *Pair him with Cromartie. You can't replace Revis but it will make them better than last year
14 car Tavon Austin WR *Helps make the offense more explosive and eventual replacement for S. Smith.
15 no *Barkevious Mingo OLB *Athlete for 3-4 conversion.
16 stl Kenny Vaccaro FS *BPA and position of need
17 pit Datone Jones DE *Work on fixing the aging D with a player that can stop the run and pass rush
18 dal Sylvester Williams DT *Lacks football awareness but disrupts the pocket. Should help the 4-3 conversion.
19 nyg *Tyler Eifert TE *BPA. Need. Tool for Eli.
20 chi Jonathan Cooper OG *Cooper is athletic and Cutler likes to hold the ball a while. This would also be a huge upgrade at guard for them.
21 cin *D.J. Fluker OT *Andre Smith replacement
22 stl *Cordarrelle Patterson WR *Speed for Bradford and can be used as an RB in certain packages to make up for loss of Jackson.
23 min *Bjoern Werner DE *Eventual Jared Allen successor. Will probably rotate on several positions early on.
24 ind Ezekiel Ansah DE *Take a risk on athleticism for 3-4 defense as on OLB and pass rush specialist.
25 min *DeAndre Hopkins WR *Receiver for Ponder and pairs with Jennings to make a decent duo
26 gb Jonathan Cyprien SS *Seems like a player Thompson would like. Can cover pass and chase down in backfield
27 hou *Justin Hunter WR *HOU is desperate for a #2 WR and I personally feel like Hunter will be the best of the draft if he regains 2011 form.
28 den *Damontre Moore DE *Denver is going DE (starter), DT (develop/depth) or CB (eventual Bailey successor) with this pick. Think they gamble on this DE.
29 ne Cornellius Carradine DE *NE thinks this is a bargain when they need more pass rush help other than Ninkovich and Chandler
30 atl Johnthan Banks CB *Add length to their secondary
31 sf Jamar Taylor CB *BPA. Baalke sticks to his board
32 bal *Eric Reid FS *BPA. Newsome sticks to his board and he has safeties rated higher due to the need (Huff is new to the team and they still lost Reed and Pollard)
33 jax *Matt Elam SS *Jax has a poor secondary and this is a hometown product. He will bring a determined attitude to the defense
34 sf Jesse Williams DT *BPA. Baalke sticks to his board. I think he doesn't become a starter though. Just like RJF he starts off as a rotational guy.
35 phi *Alec Ogletree OLB/ILB *More speed on D for Kelly
36 det Terron Armstead OT *Det is in desperate need of tackles and Armstead has the physical tools to develop into a good one
37 cin DJ Hayden CB *Health concerns appear alleviated and Cin looks for a steal here
38 ari *Menelik Watson OT *Their tackle of the future. Probably starts at RT and eventually replaces Brown
39 cle forfeit
40 nyj *Eddie Lacy RB *Huge upgrade on Green from previous years
41 ten *Keenan Allen WR *Ten has pretty good receivers with Britt and Wright but they may be thinking long term and replacing Britt and his injury woes. Plus they see a top pick that falls too far
42 buf Ryan Nassib QB *A pairing that everyone sees coming
43 mia *Johnathan Hankins DT *Starts as rotational guy and becomes a starter as he finds his motor
44 tb *Zach Ertz TE *Make or break year for Freeman. Give him more tools to succeed
45 car Robert Alford CB *Replacement for Gamble
46 no forfeit
47 sd Manti Te'o ILB *TKO replacement
48 stl Margus Hunt DE *Fischer doesn't mind developing players. Huge upside if he develops football instincts.
49 dal Alex Okafor DE *Pass rush in the 4-3.
50 pit Arthur Brown OLB/ILB *Pit may move him around the formation but sure they can get the most out of this athlete with their defensive history
51 nyg Kawann Short DT *Starts as rotational guy and becomes a starter as he finds his motor
52 chi Jamie Collins OLB *Add speed to an aging D and one that lost Urlacher
53 wash Jordan Poyer CB *Eventual Hall (1 year contract and already cut once) replacement
54 min *Kevin Minter ILB *They need an MLB
55 cin *Sam Montgomery DE *A top player at one time that Brown sees as a bargain
56 mia *Gavin Escobar TE *Weapon for Tannehill.
57 gb *Robert Woods WR *GB does not mind stock-piling talented WRs especially when they were expected to go much earlier at one point.
58 sea *David Amerson CB *Length that SEA likes. Carrol takes a chance on developing.
59 hou John Jenkins DT *BPA. Either becomes a force or no motor and run over. 2 down player at first.
60 den Darius Slay CB *Adding speed to their secondary.
61 ne Quinton Patton WR *Lloyd replacement.
62 atl Johnathan Franklin RB *Eventual Jackson successor. I think he will be the best running back in this class
63 sf Markus Wheaton WR *SF needs to add speed to their WR crop.
64 bal Terrance Williams WR *Boldin replacement
65 kc EJ Manuel QB *Develop behind Smith.
66 jax Matt Barkley QB *Gabbert has a huge arm and Barkley has the football smarts. One of these will win out because they can't find one guy with both.
67 det Phillip Thomas FS *Secondary help. Will compete with Spievay. Delmas can play more SS and in the box
68 oak Bacarri Rambo FS *Secondary help after loss of Huff
69 phi Barrett Jones C/OG/OT *Kelly will like his versatility
70 cle Blidi Ray Wilson CB *Secondary help. He plays tough and would be a good complement to Haden
71 ari Mike Glennon QB *Develop for Arians deep ball attack
72 ten Larry Warford OG *BPA and position to upgrade
73 buf Sio Moore OLB/ILB *Can play OLB in the 4-3 but I also see some similarities to Navarro Bowman in college and maybe he can play ILB in a 3-4. 74 nyj Tyler Wilson QB *The rookie QB to compete with the butt fumble. I think Bray, Landry and Scott could also be options here.
75 tb Khaseem Greene OLB/ILB *Picked up by old coach. This guy reminds me of Larry Grant for some reason but more physically gifted. I can see him being better at ILB than 4-3 OLB.
76 sf Brian Schwenke C *Goodwin replacement. Depends on how they feel about Looney and Kilgore though. Might be too many guards/center prospects.
77 no Kyle Long OT *O-line depth
78 sd *Travis Frederick C *Oline depth. They need to replace Vasquez so this could be a guard or maybe they try Frederick at guard (he played some for WIS)
79 mia *David Bakhtiari OT *They need RT help and I can see them going possibly going for Fluker in the 1st but is pick 12 too much of a premium? Scouts think he should play guard because he isn't athletic enough for LT but skill set may transition to RT
80 stl Montee Ball RB *STL is comfortable this season with Pead and Richardson splitting carries but I think Ball develops into every down back for them
81 pit *Giovani Bernard RB *BPA and Need. They will still use Redman for the bruising runs
82 dal Travis Kelce TE *Eventual Witten replacement.
83 nyg *Justin Pugh OG/OT/C *Depth. Versatility
84 mia *Da'Rick Rogers WR *Can line up as the #2 when Hartline goes in the slot. Will compete for #3 WR mostly.
85 min Marquise Goodwin WR *Hopkins was more possession and now Goodwin adds the Harvin-like speed.
86 cin *Joseph Randle RB *Brings a shiftier skill set that is different to the Law Firm but will also complement
87 wash Shamarko Thomas SS *Depth but eventual starter this season
88 ind DJ Swearinger S *Should at least start off as the #3 safety if he doesn't flat out win the SS or FS spot
89 sea Vance McDonald TE *pair with Carlson and will help block for Skittles. He will have time to develop reliable hands
90 gb Le'Veion Bell RB *Competes with Dujuan Harris for carries. He has a big bruising back style (almost looks like he runs violently like AP but not as skilled or fast by any means)
91 hou *Corey Lemonier OLB *Depth. Replacement for Barwin if he can show more pass rush than just a speed and bull rush. Needs better use of hands.
92 den T.J. McDonald FS *Adding more speed to the secondary in hopes of nobody getting over the top of them like the Ravens.
93 ne *Tyrann Mathieu CB *The hoodie thinks of ways he can move him around and use him in special packages
94 atl Brandon Williams DT *I think they can use a big clogger at the nose. May be best suited for a 3-4 though…
95 sf Josh Evans FS *With the safeties going quick I think this is where they reach for one. Could be Swearinger too or maybe surprise safety (Okoroha? I throw out this random article just to say I was the only guy on the board that called it if it happens... http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2013/03/25/Exclusive-Okechukwu-Okoroha-Shines-at-Pro-Day-Set-to-be-a-Steal-in-the-NFL-Draft I don't think it will though because the guy appears to be more of a SS and not a lot of skill covering the ball in the air)
96 bal *Logan Ryan CB *Takes him expecting him to develop. A lot of talent but out of position too many times. He could make some big rookie mistakes.
97 hou Dwayne Gratz CB *Good value. Will push Kareem Jackson to keep improving.
98 kc B.W. Webb CB *How long will Smith and Robinson be in KC? Webb will develop as eventual #2 cb.
99 ten *Tyler Bray QB *Backup and potential competition for Locker if he struggles
100 jax Aaron Dobson WR *Competes for #3 or 4 WR position. Possible eventual #2 receiver.
101 kc John Simon DE
102 oak Brian Winters OG *Again, they need to protect their QB and create holes for McFadden.
103 phi Ryan Swope WR *Takes some #3 routes but mostly the #4. Will have a really fast receiving core with Jackson, Maclin and Swope
104 min Sanders Commings CB *He is physical and can press. He will help to replace Winfield
105 ari Leon McFadden CB *Eventual Greg Toler replacement
106 cle Trevardo Williams OLB
107 buf Andre Ellington RB *It is the CJ Spiller show now but Ellington will be brought in to be Jackson's successor
108 nyj Zaviar Gooden OLB
109 ten Jordan Mills OT *Depth on the Oline
110 car Earl Wolf S *They currently have journeymen safety. Wolf will bring speed and power to the backfield
111 no Jordan Reed TE *Payton takes a page out of the Hoodie's book and gets his Hernandez to partner with his Gronk (Graham)
112 sd Stedman Bailey WR *SDs entire receiving corp needs help. Gates is aging, DX is injury prone and Floyd should be a #3. Bailey has the skills to make plays and score.
113 mia Bennie Logan DT
114 tb Malliciah Goodman DE *Potential Bennett replacement
115 stl Reid Fragel OT *If Saffold demands to play LT (this season or next) Fragel could be the RT replacement this year or next
116 dal David Quessenberry OT/OG/C *potential RT for them to replace Free but can also play him where they think he will best boost the line.
117 pit Don Jones S *They start to develop a safety to replacing their aging pair
118 nyg Kiko Alonso LB *Might develop into their MLB of the future but may start off in WLB rotational role
119 chi Jon Bostic MLB *Groomed to be the Urlacher successor
120 cin Tony Jefferson S *Cin is desperate for safeties and they get good value at this point in the draft
121 wash Jelani Jenkins OLB *Rotational player subbing in for Kerrigan or Orakpo
122 min David Bass DE
123 ind Chase Thomas OLB *Seems like a good player to fit in Manusky's 3-4 and IND does have several Stanford ties.
124 gb Oday Aboushi OT *GB seems to have tackle depth issues every year. Here is a player once thought to go in the 1st round to add depth and potential starting ability
125 sea Matt Scott QB *Sea has a pretty stacked roster and this is can be a luxury pick for them to develop a backup and possibly trade later if teams offer a high price
126 hou Landry Jones QB *Schaub will never win a SuperBowl. Jones has time to develop behind him though.
127 den Akeem Spence DT *He would be a good addition to their 4-3. He is strong against the run and won't be asked to pass rush too much.
128 tb Christine Michael RB *Backup RB because the current staff does not seem to have much faith in Blount
129 atl Kenny Stills WR *A number 4 receiver to possibly develop into the #3 receiver. Just adds to their already powerful air arsenal
130 sf William Gholston DE *Either a standout pro compared against college or a complete bust. He has the tools to be a quality 34 end if he finds his motor.
[ Edited by gored49 on Apr 23, 2013 at 12:05 AM ]
Thank you for sharing. Aren't your pick numbers off? Don't we have the 61 and 74 and 93?

Jamar Taylor and Jesse Williams wouldn't surprise me at all. Definitely some surprises in your top 10 though!
I think my numbers are correct. I think it is off what you were expecting because I included the forfeited picks for NO and CLE which makes it seem like we are picking two spots later.
Whats so special about Jamar Taylor? Been hearing a ton about him, but I've never looked into him.
Originally posted by gored49:
I think my numbers are correct. I think it is off what you were expecting because I included the forfeited picks for NO and CLE which makes it seem like we are picking two spots later.

Oh interesting approach. I don't think that's how it works though. Every single site has us at 61, 74, etc. I think those will go down as the official designations for those picks. When the Saints and Browns don't pick, those picks don't exist.
Originally posted by gold49digger:
Whats so special about Jamar Taylor? Been hearing a ton about him, but I've never looked into him.

Seen a lot about him being a very "safe" pick at CB. Not an elite prospect mostly because of his average size, but has decent measurables and locked WRs down at BSU.
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by gold49digger:
Whats so special about Jamar Taylor? Been hearing a ton about him, but I've never looked into him.

Seen a lot about him being a very "safe" pick at CB. Not an elite prospect mostly because of his average size, but has decent measurables and locked WRs down at BSU.

Sounds meh. I don't think I would be too thrilled but I wouldn't go wtf on the pick.
You can't judge a player just on Youtube highlights but you can see some good stuff here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMHLTcEs3bI

I like Taylor because he has ok to good size (he is 5' 11"), really good straight line and recovery speed and he can play both zone and man coverage. He seems to have good instincts and is often right on the hip of the receiver.
LieutKaffee - I know you are right about the numbers. I know the picks will appear like they didn't exist but I still included them just in case somebody was wondering why Cleveland or NO got skipped. Though everyone on this board probably already knows that.
Would be shocked if Ansah fell to 24 and I assume we (and several other teams) would be trying to trade up to get him. Guys 6'5 270+ who run 4.6's with 35+ inch arms don't come along too often and I can't see anyone taking Jones over Ansah even in a 3-4 unless Ansah is really lying about his age and is actually 30. I'd be a little surprised if we wait till 95 to draft a safety and pass over Eric Reid for Jamar Taylor knowing the teams after us are looking at safeties. No one knows where everyone is going to land, so it will be interesting to see if Ziggy actually falls on draft day.
Originally posted by gored49:
LieutKaffee - I know you are right about the numbers. I know the picks will appear like they didn't exist but I still included them just in case somebody was wondering why Cleveland or NO got skipped. Though everyone on this board probably already knows that.

Cool. I'm with you now.
Can you highlight the niners picks please? I like to read who and your opinions on them.. Those are the only ones I really care about lol
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Would be shocked if Ansah fell to 24 and I assume we (and several other teams) would be trying to trade up to get him. Guys 6'5 270+ who run 4.6's with 35+ inch arms don't come along too often and I can't see anyone taking Jones over Ansah even in a 3-4 unless Ansah is really lying about his age and is actually 30. I'd be a little surprised if we wait till 95 to draft a safety and pass over Eric Reid for Jamar Taylor knowing the teams after us are looking at safeties. No one knows where everyone is going to land, so it will be interesting to see if Ziggy actually falls on draft day.

I'd be verrrrry tempted to trade up for Ziggy in that range. Dude is a freak.
Originally posted by gored49:
You can't judge a player just on Youtube highlights but you can see some good stuff here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMHLTcEs3bI

I like Taylor because he has ok to good size (he is 5' 11"), really good straight line and recovery speed and he can play both zone and man coverage. He seems to have good instincts and is often right on the hip of the receiver.

Wow looks pretty good. But I don't like judging prospect with just highlights. I want to see their bad games also.
eastcoast49ers fan - you are probably right and from all the buzz it does sound like he will go higher. I just feel like he shouldn't because you are drafting for what you think he could be and not what he is now. He is almost like Okoye in my mind. If Okoye played 1 year of college ball would be he be a top 10 pick next year?

I just don't feel like Ansah will be a force in his first year in the NFL. Veteran OL players will figure him out and use technique to slow him down. He doesn't know how to use his hands other than trying to use pure force and speed. Watch Tank Carradine. His hands are way more violent to go with his power.

I am probably just too conservative if I was a GM and I would probably take someone with upside but just a little safer. I'm predicting a small slide but I'm ok with being wrong.

FYI... I'm not Erick Ward (so this is not self promoting and nor do I know him) but his videos are really good on youtube. Here is his on Ansah: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L__yGr3mWjs