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We will not be drafting a NT high

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by 60sfan:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
The one thing we know about Baalke is that he's not afraid to reach for someone he likes, especially if it's a need.....so if he likes a NT and feels we need more talent there besides two players that have almost zero combined experience playing the 3-4 NT position in an NFL game (Williams and Dorsey), he'll go in that direction. If he feels that a guy like Cyprien or Reed can step in and immediately challenge for the FS spot, he'll grab one of those guys. Same goes with a WR...regardless of need or perceived value, he could easily draft a guy like Quinton Patten in the late first/early 2nd if he/they liked him enough.

But to say what position Baalke WILL or WILL NOT address early on with any level of certainty is a fools game.

That's a safe way to look at it. I believe there is not a pure NT that is worth taking in the first 2 rounds. Star, Jessie Williams and even John Jenkins are not Pure NT's. They are hybrids that can play a 3-4 DE. If any of them are selected, it will not be to play NT only.

It's not safe, it's just the truth. I can't think of too many people who had Aldon Smith #7 overall to us, or AJ Jenkins in the late first. Baalke goes after the guys he wants regardless of perceived value, that's been his track record so far. And yes, it's not likely we select someone to just play a pure NT role because we're not a pure 3-4 team. It stands to reason that we would need someone with the ability to play inside in different fronts, and even someone to play the 5 technique when called for. That's the nature of their scheme.

The one thing I look at with Baalke is when he was acting GM. We needed O-lineman and he took no chances, he went and got the guy he likes in Davis, and then took Iupati a few picks later. IMO our D-line does not necessarily need two top 50 picks like allot of people suggest, but you can't overlook our safety position with DG leaving. If I had to bet on what would happen with the Niners it would be a trade up for a safety to land the guy Baalke likes. But like you said... trying to predict what would happen is fun but also a fools work, it would be interesting to see which odds are better... a perfect bracket in march madness or correctly predicting every pick and team in the 1st round.
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by 60sfan:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
The one thing we know about Baalke is that he's not afraid to reach for someone he likes, especially if it's a need.....so if he likes a NT and feels we need more talent there besides two players that have almost zero combined experience playing the 3-4 NT position in an NFL game (Williams and Dorsey), he'll go in that direction. If he feels that a guy like Cyprien or Reed can step in and immediately challenge for the FS spot, he'll grab one of those guys. Same goes with a WR...regardless of need or perceived value, he could easily draft a guy like Quinton Patten in the late first/early 2nd if he/they liked him enough.

But to say what position Baalke WILL or WILL NOT address early on with any level of certainty is a fools game.

That's a safe way to look at it. I believe there is not a pure NT that is worth taking in the first 2 rounds. Star, Jessie Williams and even John Jenkins are not Pure NT's. They are hybrids that can play a 3-4 DE. If any of them are selected, it will not be to play NT only.

It's not safe, it's just the truth. I can't think of too many people who had Aldon Smith #7 overall to us, or AJ Jenkins in the late first. Baalke goes after the guys he wants regardless of perceived value, that's been his track record so far. And yes, it's not likely we select someone to just play a pure NT role because we're not a pure 3-4 team. It stands to reason that we would need someone with the ability to play inside in different fronts, and even someone to play the 5 technique when called for. That's the nature of their scheme.

The one thing I look at with Baalke is when he was acting GM. We needed O-lineman and he took no chances, he went and got the guy he likes in Davis, and then took Iupati a few picks later. IMO our D-line does not necessarily need two top 50 picks like allot of people suggest, but you can't overlook our safety position with DG leaving. If I had to bet on what would happen with the Niners it would be a trade up for a safety to land the guy Baalke likes. But like you said... trying to predict what would happen is fun but also a fools work, it would be interesting to see which odds are better... a perfect bracket in march madness or correctly predicting every pick and team in the 1st round.

I like your chances of hitting on your NCAA brackets than correctly predicting the first round in the NFL draft. Also, given Baalke's track record, I agree that trading up for a safety or grabbing a safety at #31 that might seem like a reach, is the most likely scenario. They could target Eric Reid at #31 or a dark horse pick (IMO) is David Amerson as conversion FS prospect. Just my take, but if they're willing to invest in a 7th overall pick in a guy who never played stand-up/outside linebacker before (Aldon) and teach him to convert, they could invest a 31st overall on a big college corner who has all the skills/talent to be a top NFL safety.
5280, it is exactly because of what baalke did wti the OL, drafting 2 first rd OLs, (and how did that turn out?) that i think he will take two early picks at 31 and 34 and both will be DLs. Something and somebodies to spell the starters. It is what we need to do, and with a deep DL draft we are well positioned to get both of them. We will need to trade up for the starting FS and that will take a slug of draft pick trades. Right there you have 3 starters, all on D, and i think baalke comes up with one more, tho maybe doesn't start this yr. If lightning strikes, baalke gets insanely lucky and gets a fifth starter, tho for next yr..
Originally posted by tjd808185:
What are you talking about? We spent high picks on the line year after year. They just ended up being busts. Kwame Harris, David Baas, Justin Smiley, Chilo Rachel. Those are 1st and 2nd round picks. The only later round pick we relied on was Adam Snyder.

Either your memory is wrong, or we have a very different perspective on the importance of linemen. In the past 13 years the niners have drafted
  • zero offensive linemen in 4 drafts,
  • top three round guys in 6 drafts, and
  • bottom tier guys in 3 drafts.
  • In the past two years the highest draft pick on the line was Looney in the 4th round.

During those 13 years they drafted:
  • four linemen in the first round--hit on Staley, Davis, and Iupati; missed on Kwame Harris.
  • three linemen in the second round--Smiley and Baas were decent but lost as FAs, missed on Rachal.
  • one lineman in the third round--Adam Snyder, who was a good backup at every position, lost in FAcy.
  • they drafted five linemen in the sixth or seventh rounds--Heitman and Kosier were good and decent, the others were not.

This is an abysmal record of neglect for a very important position. Many teams draft OLinemen every year and not in the seventh round. A team with a strong line can bring in mid-round picks to develop but the niners haven't had a really strong line for a very long time. They tried to rely on FAs for a while (Larry Allen) but that was counter productive, delaying development or putting off drafting talent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_49ers_draft_history#2000_NFL_Draft
[ Edited by dtg_9er on Apr 11, 2013 at 11:27 PM ]
  • KK49
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Originally posted by PhillyNiner:
BPA all day 'ery day. We are set up to have exactly one need, Free Safety and in a class this deep there is no need to get one in the first round. We have the luxury of going after the cream of the crop with no immediate holes to fill and I think anyone who is acting like they know who we will pick with such unyielding certainty is the one kidding themselves. We are really and truely ready to pounce on anybody who slips down the board farther than their talent would indicate.

couldnt ve said it better. not worried about this draft at all. cant wait to sit back , relax and watch Balke do his magic. he has great opportunity to make this team great, and if he messes up......I dont even wanna think about that.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Either your memory is wrong, or we have a very different perspective on the importance of linemen. In the past 13 years the niners have drafted
  • zero offensive linemen in 4 drafts,
  • top three round guys in 6 drafts, and
  • bottom tier guys in 3 drafts.
  • In the past two years the highest draft pick on the line was Looney in the 4th round.

During those 13 years they drafted:
  • four linemen in the first round--hit on Staley, Davis, and Iupati; missed on Kwame Harris.
  • three linemen in the second round--Smiley and Baas were decent but lost as FAs, missed on Rachal.
  • one lineman in the third round--Adam Snyder, who was a good backup at every position, lost in FAcy.
  • they drafted five linemen in the sixth or seventh rounds--Heitman and Kosier were good and decent, the others were not.

This is an abysmal record of neglect for a very important position. Many teams draft OLinemen every year and not in the seventh round. A team with a strong line can bring in mid-round picks to develop but the niners haven't had a really strong line for a very long time. They tried to rely on FAs for a while (Larry Allen) but that was counter productive, delaying development or putting off drafting talent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_49ers_draft_history#2000_NFL_Draft


There's only 5 starters on the offensive line so I'm going to have to go with we have different perspectives. Nobody spends high picks on backup lineman it's just not how the league works. 4 Ist rounders and 3 2nd rounders over the past 13 years I'd like you to compare that to other franchises and get back to me. About 3/5th of our line has always been anchored by 1st round and 2nd round picks and that's pretty standard for the league.

FTR I'm not bashing the importance of the line I'm just telling you the picks have always been there.
Originally posted by tjd808185:
There's only 5 starters on the offensive line so I'm going to have to go with we have different perspectives. Nobody spends high picks on backup lineman it's just not how the league works. 4 Ist rounders and 3 2nd rounders over the past 13 years I'd like you to compare that to other franchises and get back to me. About 3/5th of our line has always been anchored by 1st round and 2nd round picks and that's pretty standard for the league.

FTR I'm not bashing the importance of the line I'm just telling you the picks have always been there.

I'm not inclined to spend the time to do so, but it is beside the point. My argument is with those who say, "We drafted a bunch of high picks at this position so we shouldn't invest any more picks there." My view is that you make sure you have good to great starters on the line and then good back ups as well. They do not have to be first or second round picks, unless you really haven't developed any later round guys. Of course, you can rent a Larry Allen for a year or two, at the end of their careers; but that seems really fool hardy. Your statement was that they had wasted pick after pick--I pointed out that most of the picks were good, just lost some to free agency.

Boone is a great example of developing under valued talent for starting positions. If they are as lucky with Kilgore and Looney they are set...except for a back up tackle. There is a weakness at Center that should be addressed if neither of these guys can fill the bill. First round or fourth round...somewhere they need to have a plan to replace Goodwin. Maybe Goodwin will hold up for another year, but my view is that he was not able to seal the center of the line adequately to prevent pressure up the middle...a very serious problem for an offense wishing to win a super bowl.

Edit: forgot to mention--they missed on two of eight picks (1-3)...not a bad record.
[ Edited by dtg_9er on Apr 13, 2013 at 5:37 PM ]
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
I'm not inclined to spend the time to do so, but it is beside the point. My argument is with those who say, "We drafted a bunch of high picks at this position so we shouldn't invest any more picks there." My view is that you make sure you have good to great starters on the line and then good back ups as well. They do not have to be first or second round picks, unless you really haven't developed any later round guys. Of course, you can rent a Larry Allen for a year or two, at the end of their careers; but that seems really fool hardy. Your statement was that they had wasted pick after pick--I pointed out that most of the picks were good, just lost some to free agency.

Boone is a great example of developing under valued talent for starting positions. If they are as lucky with Kilgore and Looney they are set...except for a back up tackle. There is a weakness at Center that should be addressed if neither of these guys can fill the bill. First round or fourth round...somewhere they need to have a plan to replace Goodwin. Maybe Goodwin will hold up for another year, but my view is that he was not able to seal the center of the line adequately to prevent pressure up the middle...a very serious problem for an offense wishing to win a super bowl.

Edit: forgot to mention--they missed on two of eight picks (1-3)...not a bad record.

Splitting hairs here. My point is they didn't work out for us so we had to replace them (Harris, Baas, Rachal, Smiley). Whether they're serviceable for someone else is besides the point. To us they weren't worth the cost of keeping them.

The points you're bringing up are so far away from the points I responded to that I just have to stop right here. I'm all for bringing in a lineman or 2. Center, swing tackle. No complaints here.
[ Edited by tjd808185 on Apr 13, 2013 at 10:42 PM ]
Why Not draft deline early? We need NT,DT,DE all that fir the 3-4. We have zero depth at these spots and Justin is Long in the tooth and Ray Mac is about Worn out. We need atleast 3 bodies at Deline atleast out of our 13 picks.
Predict when we pick a NT. I say the 6th.
  • Kolohe
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Originally posted by 60sfan:
Predict when we pick a NT. I say the 6th.

Its gotta be the 4th round with Jesse Williams, there really isn't anything after that, and I doubt Tomsula will want a guy that is just big and can't move two feet.
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Originally posted by 60sfan:
Predict when we pick a NT. I say the 6th.

Its gotta be the 4th round with Jesse Williams, there really isn't anything after that, and I doubt Tomsula will want a guy that is just big and can't move two feet.

I agree. If we don't trade up for Jesse, NT isn't happening this year.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I like your chances of hitting on your NCAA brackets than correctly predicting the first round in the NFL draft. Also, given Baalke's track record, I agree that trading up for a safety or grabbing a safety at #31 that might seem like a reach, is the most likely scenario. They could target Eric Reid at #31 or a dark horse pick (IMO) is David Amerson as conversion FS prospect. Just my take, but if they're willing to invest in a 7th overall pick in a guy who never played stand-up/outside linebacker before (Aldon) and teach him to convert, they could invest a 31st overall on a big college corner who has all the skills/talent to be a top NFL safety.

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  • Kolohe
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Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Originally posted by 60sfan:
Predict when we pick a NT. I say the 6th.

Its gotta be the 4th round with Jesse Williams, there really isn't anything after that, and I doubt Tomsula will want a guy that is just big and can't move two feet.

I agree. If we don't trade up for Jesse, NT isn't happening this year.

Worst case scenario is that Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams fills in at the nose, see what kind of cheap free agents are out there, suck it up and hope for the best and draft one next year. Although I'm not too sure of the NT prospects next year, only one I can think of is Louis Nix of Notre Dame. And I don't know how good Nix would be after getting rolled up against Alabama.
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Worst case scenario is that Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams fills in at the nose, see what kind of cheap free agents are out there, suck it up and hope for the best and draft one next year. Although I'm not too sure of the NT prospects next year, only one I can think of is Louis Nix of Notre Dame. And I don't know how good Nix would be after getting rolled up against Alabama.

I hope we take Jesse Williams on day 3, but if not there is Daniel McCullers 6'7" 370 from Tennessee next year. The guy is a monster and moves pretty well for being so massive. Not sure what round he will be projected next year, but I have been impressed by him.
[ Edited by 9RVOLS on Apr 27, 2013 at 12:26 AM ]