Paraag Marathe: "Our Level of Spending on Defense is not sustainable over time"

Not sure if anyone caught some of the comments coming out of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, but Paraag Marathe was a panel member on it. One comment he made was that the 49ers have the most expensive defense in the league on an average-per-year basis...and that is not sustainable. Full Quote:

"We have the most expensive defense in the league on an average per-year basis, and that is not sustainable over time," Marathe said. "Because of the cap, if every veteran on the team took a 15 percent discount on their market value, you couldn't field that team still under the cap because the difference between wholesale [draft] and retail [free agency] is so wide."

"You have to figure out which players to keep and which players to let move on and churn out. Because you have to continue to replenish the system."

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/92769/nfl-econ-49ers-sustainability-rams-plan

Based on those comments, I see re-signing Goldson as highly unlikely, probably less likely than Rogers or Whittner being cut. We have to re-balance and keep 2014+ in mind, when we will probably have to pay Kaepernick and Aldon Smith a combined $30m+ a season. So, what would an offseason look like that took this approach, assuming compensatory picks in the 4th, 6th, and 7th? It allows us to get younger -- and perhaps better -- in the secondary very quickly. It frees up a ton of money for 2014 -- we can almost pay out signing bonuses up front!

Released/Not Re-Signed: K Akers, DL Sopoaga, DL Jean-Francois, LB Grant, LB Haralson, S Goldson, S Whitner, CB Rogers, WR Ginn
Re-signed: CB Brock, S McBath, TE Walker

Free Agents: Kicker, Reserve Safety, Reserve Defensive Lineman

Draft:

1-31 - Datone Jones, DE, UCLA - huge plus-up at the defensive end position
2-34 - Jonathan Cyprien, SS, Florida International – Big, Rangy Safety
2-61 - David Amerson, S/CB, N.C. State - CB/Safety hybrid that will allow us to put him at safety or corner, depending on how the rest of the roster develops
3-74 - Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State – big bodied nose tackle
3-93 - Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers – Excellent Technique, sound tackler, physical as can be. Not that fast, but I'm not convinced raw speed translates that well at CB anyway…technique matters a lot more.
4-125 - Xavier Nixon, OT, Florida - Big tackle who can fill in if something happens to Staley or Davis...and Davis is a free agent after 2014 with a voided final year.
4-comp - Matt Scott, QB, Arizona - solid QB prospect with some athleticism and is a good fit for our system
5-150 – Rodney Smith, WR, Florida State – Big kid, vertical threat, jump-ball guy.
5-157 – Kwame Geathers, NT, Georgia – leaving a year too soon, probably for financial reasons. A little raw.
6-180 - PJ Longeran, C, LSU - Center Depth/Project
6-189 - Marlon Brown, WR, Georgia - Big, Physical Receiver that could be a steal
6-comp - Nickell Roby, DB/PR, USC - Punt Returner, reserve corner
7-211 - Orhian Johnson, SS, Ohio State - special teams contributor, reserve safety
7-221 - Nick Clancy, ILB, Boston College - lots of hustle, we'll need ILB depth
7-comp - La'Rod King, WR, Kentucky - Camp fodder (probably)

Nice post!

Starts thread on Paragg quote. Sneaks in mock offseason for Niners. lol


PS: no chance in hell we actually select 15 players in the draft

Originally posted by StOnEy333:
Starts thread on Paragg quote. Sneaks in mock offseason for Niners. lol


PS: no chance in hell we actually select 15 players in the draft

1. Its an all-inclusive post about the future of the 49ers
2. don't be a jerk - I didn't sneak anything in.
3. I'm well aware we won't draft 15. But I listed all 15 because I HAVE NO IDEA what picks we'll unload.

Its ok for the most part, except from what I understand, the cap savings in cutting Rogers is negligible, so I don't think he'll get cut, at least this year. BTW, I don't see a kicker in the draft or FA signing

I like your draft, even if it means not getting anyone to contribute on offense through the draft. The only problem I see is that we're still relying on Manningham/Williams/Jenkins to fill the #2 WR position, for which I believe none of them are adept.

You do have 3 WRs, but at pick 150+, it would be a big surprise if any of them made a difference.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I like your draft, even if it means not getting anyone to contribute on offense through the draft. The only problem I see is that we're still relying on Manningham/Williams/Jenkins to fill the #2 WR position, for which I believe none of them are adept.

You do have 3 WRs, but at pick 150+, it would be a big surprise if any of them made a difference.

They're developmental, yeah.

Originally posted by kentc1978:
Its ok for the most part, except from what I understand, the cap savings in cutting Rogers is negligible, so I don't think he'll get cut, at least this year. BTW, I don't see a kicker in the draft or FA signing

corrected the Kicker oversight -- it was supposed to be in there.

As for Rogers, it saves $1.25m this year -- not a lot, but it saves a TON in 2014 and 2015! Out out-years suddenly look much brighter.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by StOnEy333:

Starts thread on Paragg quote. Sneaks in mock offseason for Niners. lol


PS: no chance in hell we actually select 15 players in the draft

1. Its an all-inclusive post about the future of the 49ers
2. don't be a jerk - I didn't sneak anything in.
3. I'm well aware we won't draft 15. But I listed all 15 because I HAVE NO IDEA what picks we'll unload.

I made a perfectly truthful observation. You're the one calling people names. Practice what you preach.

Originally posted by StOnEy333:
I made a perfectly truthful observation. You're the one calling people names. Practice what you preach.

I advised that you not be a jerk, not that you are one .

But you're implying that I put a wrapper around a mock draft, which is stupid.

VERY interesting. Based on those comments, it would seem highly likely that we let Goldson walk.

Carlos Rogers has 3 years left on his deal, but I don't expect him to last that long. He will be cut before then, just not this offseason.

Whitner is in the last year of his contract at a fairly reasonable salary, so he stays.

I expect RJF to be re-signed, takeover the starting NT spot, and we let Sopoaga go.

If you think about the Paraag Marathe quote and what it means, you shouldn't expect the Niners to be drafting many offensive players this time around. He's clearly saying that their defense needs to get cheaper and we know it never hurts to get younger. The fact that this is acknowledged to be a draft heavy with defensive talent ices the deal. I'll be surprised if they take ANY offensive players with their first five picks.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by StOnEy333:
I made a perfectly truthful observation. You're the one calling people names. Practice what you preach.

I advised that you not be a jerk, not that you are one .

But you're implying that I put a wrapper around a mock draft, which is stupid.

Well I think you put a wrapper on your mock draft, and that isnt stupid. There is so much going on in the OP, you forced me to think that.

Now quit arguing and continue your convo's or I will lock this.

Originally posted by AmpLee:
We will need starters at WR and S. I can see our first two picks going there. We need D-line depth, and I'm not opposed to grabbing one if the value is there early, but we could also explore bringing in a relatively cheap veteran to rotate in (like a Seymour). I'd rather have RJF stay, but he's probably a goner. However, I don't see a lot of teams interested in a guy like Soap who's play dropped off last year. We could probably bring him back on the cheap and draft a guy to rotate with him and eventually take over. I don't see us dropping Whitner if we can't sign Goldson to a long-term deal (which seems unlikely). I'd like to drop Rogers, but he's still solid and while we have to think about the future, we must also keep our defense strong for a run this year.

We have starters at WR. We'd have 1st and second day rookies competing for the starting S spots against Spillman, Robinson, McBath, and maybe Cox (he's listed as a safety).

Whitner gave up more TDs than any other safety in the NFL, If I'm correct.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by StOnEy333:
I made a perfectly truthful observation. You're the one calling people names. Practice what you preach.

I advised that you not be a jerk, not that you are one .

But you're implying that I put a wrapper around a mock draft, which is stupid.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by StOnEy333:
I made a perfectly truthful observation. You're the one calling people names. Practice what you preach.

I advised that you not be a jerk, not that you are one .

But you're implying that I put a wrapper around a mock draft, which is stupid.

I think it was a wise and good post by nick. i think we need to temper our thoughts about goldsen getting a big deal from us and also about us running out and signing a bunch of free agents or trading for hot shots like revis. i think the boss is basically telling us goldsen will be allowed to walk and we will find his replacement in the draft plus there are some people whose names are not ed reed or charles woodson we can sign to replace goldsen. people should know by now not to get attatched to players