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Revisiting last year's WR prospects and what it can tell us...

Originally posted by blm7754:
Just for completeness:

Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville): 64 catches, 865 yards, 5 TD

Michael Floyd (Arizona): 45 catches, 562 yards, 2 TD


Are we still missing anybody significant from that draft class?

I limited my list to guys we could've had at the same spot as AJ Jenkins or later.
Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
I limited my list to guys we could've had at the same spot as AJ Jenkins or later.

My mistake, but it is interesting to see how the entire draft class performed. As you've said, measurables aren't everything. The fact that Hilton put up similar numbers to Blackmon is evidence of that.
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
And the conclusions of the matter are what?

"Hilton was far and away the most productive of the bunch, despite being by far the smallest. Granted his success had a lot to do with Indy's scheme, depth chart, etc., but I think this should be taken as a reminder that we all get way too caught up in measurables. For example, people were drooling over Streeter because he's tall and fast, but he fell all the way to Round 6 and couldn't even dress for a game in his first year."

The main conclusions are...

1. When we evaluate WRs, we shouldn't go nuts about guys just because they're tall and run fast 40s. Givens outperformed Quick. Hilton outperformed Streeter, etc.

2. WR is a position with a relatively high learning curve and bust rate. While I still don't love the Jenkins pick, we should be patient as a lot of other rookie WRs also failed to make any kind of meaningful contribution in year one.
Originally posted by blm7754:
My mistake, but it is interesting to see how the entire draft class performed. As you've said, measurables aren't everything. The fact that Hilton put up similar numbers to Blackmon is evidence of that.

Absolutely. I'm glad you posted those guys. A lot of people would've preferred Stephen Hill to Michael Floyd here last year, just based on the height and 40 time, but we saw that Floyd was a much more talented and polished receiver.


People knocked Kendall Wright due to a poor performance at the combine, yet he was more than twice as productive as everyone's favorite workout warrior, Stephen Hill.

And your Hilton-Blackmon comparison raises another solid point about the ability to find productive receivers later in the draft.
[ Edited by JamesGatz83 on Feb 19, 2013 at 12:42 PM ]
Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
not much, its only year 1 and most of the players played as expected. If you judged WRs off their rookie year, you would have written off the Denver WR from G-Tech, forget his name at the moment.

Exactly. Big learning curve for WRs in the NFL and a lot of their success is based on situation and opportunity.

Not a huge fan of AJ Jenkins and I thought we reached big time on him, but it's way too early to write him off.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by DaDivaRecieva15:
I wanted Stephen Hill.

Hill posted pretty similar numbers to Randy Moss this year....for what it's worth.

His QB is hot trash IMO FWIW TBH
[ Edited by DaDivaRecieva15 on Feb 19, 2013 at 12:46 PM ]
Originally posted by DaDivaRecieva15:
His QB is hot trash IMO FWIW TBH

Though I pretty much agree with you, in fairness to Sanchez, he posted decent numbers the year prior. His OL and lack of weapons really hurt him.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
You forgot Chris Givens from St. Louis. 42 catches, almost 700 receiving yards, 16.6 yards per reception and 3 TD catches.

Context is key though.......Amendola was injured a lot, Gibson and Givens were all the Rams had essentially as Quick was a major disappointment. If you swap out Randle and Givens, I would reasonably suspect that they pretty much swap out their overall stats as well.
Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
Absolutely. I'm glad you posted those guys. A lot of people would've preferred Stephen Hill to Michael Floyd here last year, just based on the height and 40 time, but we saw that Floyd was a much more talented and polished receiver.


People knocked Kendall Wright due to a poor performance at the combine, yet he was more than twice as productive as everyone's favorite workout warrior, Stephen Hill.

And your Hilton-Blackmon comparison raises another solid point about the ability to find productive receivers later in the draft.

He was lousy for most of the year, take away that huge game against the 49ers to end the season and he was pretty mediocre, even with the Cardinals junior college level QB situation considered. Cardinals fans here were calling him a bust about 3 games in. He picked up nearly 30% of his total years production in that game.


I think he could be a decent #2 WR as he develops, but I was blown away by him, he's still got a long way to go.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Feb 19, 2013 at 1:09 PM ]
Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
Just posted this in a thread regarding Jenkins, and I thought it was interesting. Here are a bunch of WR prospects this forum discussed for us at various points in the 2012 Draft.

Hilton was far and away the most productive of the bunch, despite being by far the smallest. Granted his success had a lot to do with Indy's scheme, depth chart, etc., but I think this should be taken as a reminder that we all get way too caught up in measurables.

For example, people were drooling over Streeter because he's tall and fast, but he fell all the way to Round 6 and couldn't even dress for a game in his first year.

Stephen Hill, 21 rec for 252 yds and 3 TDs

Rueben Randle, 19 rec for 298 yds and 3 TDs

Brian Quick, 11 rec for 156 yds and 2 TDs

Tommy Streeter, inactive all year for Baltimore

Marvin Jones, 18 rec for 201 yds and 1 TD

Marvin McNutt, played in 4 games, 0 catches

T.Y. Hilton, 50 rec for 861 yds and 7 TDs

Greg Childs, inactive all year for Minnesota

Nick Toon, inactive all year for New Orleans

It would really help when you start a thread like this you post ALL of the rookie NFL WR's stats.

Stephen Hill was banged up all year and had knee surgery and when he was healthy still had Sanchez & Tebow throwing him the ball.

Stephen Hill fans will love Cordarrelle Patterson - way better than Hill IMHO.
[ Edited by SkyGod on Feb 19, 2013 at 1:19 PM ]
Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
Though I pretty much agree with you, in fairness to Sanchez, he posted decent numbers the year prior. His OL and lack of weapons really hurt him.
Put into context Hill's season, he was hurt before they played us and was out a few weeks than was placed on IR with a knee injury. He played in only 11 games. So his season wasn't even a full 16 games.
Great thread. WR may be the trickiest position to draft.

What we do at the position in the draft will indicate what the team thinks of Jenkins potential/improvement in year 2 and beyond.

This and defensive line are going to be the most interesting position groups to monitor in free agency/the draft.
Originally posted by NinerPrideinNJ:
Great thread. WR may be the trickiest position to draft.

What we do at the position in the draft will indicate what the team thinks of Jenkins potential/improvement in year 2 and beyond.

This and defensive line are going to be the most interesting position groups to monitor in free agency/the draft.

The answer is simple.....just draft Quinton Patton and don't worry about the WR position anymore.










I keed, I keed..........













Maybe.




























































Just do it Baalke.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Feb 19, 2013 at 1:41 PM ]
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
He was lousy for most of the year, take away that huge game against the 49ers to end the season and he was pretty mediocre, even with the Cardinals junior college level QB situation considered. Cardinals fans here were calling him a bust about 3 games in. He picked up nearly 30% of his total years production in that game.


I think he could be a decent #2 WR as he develops, but I was blown away by him, he's still got a long way to go.

45 for 562 as a rookie with arguably the worst QB situation in the entire league for the majority of the year. Not too bad.

I agree that his ceiling is probably as a #2, but I think he'll be significantly more productive than Hill.
Originally posted by SkyGod:
It would really help when you start a thread like this you post ALL of the rookie NFL WR's stats.

Stephen Hill was banged up all year and had knee surgery and when he was healthy still had Sanchez & Tebow throwing him the ball.

Stephen Hill fans will love Cordarrelle Patterson - way better than Hill IMHO.

I posted my criteria. Only a few oversights. Based on my initial premise it didn't make a lot of sense to list guys who weren't available when we picked AJ Jenkins. Obviously someone picked at #5 overall is more likely to produce immediately than someone picked at #30.

Michael Floyd had Ryan Lindley and John Skelton throwing to him most of the year. Josh Gordon had Brandon Weeden throwing him the ball. Justin Blackmon had Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne throwing him the ball. Need I continue?

I agree with you on Patterson. Big-time playmaker.
[ Edited by JamesGatz83 on Feb 19, 2013 at 1:47 PM ]
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