Early Ghost mocking - 2013

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Ghost. I admit that I dont know all of the players on the Lines other than what Ive read. Having said that.. NFL DraftScout would think you are reaching on several picks. Have you seen a lot of these players? I respect that site more than most but they seem to have a far different opinion on these two players.

Joe Kruger - you have him 3rd..... NFL Draftscout has him 7th Rd-FA
Montori Hughes - you have him in 3rd.. NFL Draftscout has him 5th=6th rd

Hughes is about right in that range they have, I have him as moving up to the middle of the 4th but possibly dropping to the 6th round even, he's got terrific physical size but there's major questions about his character and overall dedication. He's a boom or bust prospect but has outstanding athleticism.

Kruger made a mistake skipping his senior year IMO, but that's neither here nor there, I see him as a mid 5th rounder right now, but a good Combine could move him up to the late 3rd/early 4th round. He he great size to play DE and also has some superb athletic ability, somewhat raw but a nice guy to develop.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'll probably be off in where I'm selecting some of these prospects as of today, but I'm projecting them after the combine where I think many of them will go higher than where they're currently ranked. I also project we sign a handful of free agents, but no big names...just guys that fill needs at a good price. We'll also have to restructure/extend a few contracts (like Justin Smith and maybe Vernon) to fit everyone under our cap, but it shouldn't be a big deal. With that said, feel free to rip it to shreds.


Trade
Alex Smith - trade to KC for a 2013 3rd round pick and Chiefs back-up CB Jalil Brown (6'1", 204)

Release
David Akers
Parys Haralson

Do not re-sign
Randy Moss
Delanie Walker
Isaac Sopoaga
Ted Ginn, Jr.
Tramaine Brock
Leonard Davis
Clark Haggans

Re-sign
Dashon Goldson ($5M cap#) - Leader of the defensive backfield and the enforcer; he has to come back
Ricky Jean-Francois ($1.5M cap#) - Could play 3-4 DE if the rookie NT (see Hughes below) steps up
Tavares Gooden ($900k cap#) - Key special-teamer

Free-agent signings
Brandon Gibson, WR (6'0", 210, $1.5M cap#) - Steady veteran who starts opposite Crabs until Mario is fully healthy
Travis Beckum, TE (6'3", 240, $900k cap#) - Injury bug has stopped him from being productive, but very talented receiving TE
Josh Johnson, QB (6'3", 200, $750k cap#) - Veteran QB with great running ability

Comp picks
4th rounder
7th rounder
7th rounder

2013 draft

1.) Datone Jones, DE (6'4", 280) - UCLA - Justin Smith's heir-apparent
2.) Justin Hunter, WR (6'4", 200) - Tennessee - Deep speed to stretch the field
3.) Montori Hughes, NT (6'4", 327) - Tenn-Martin - Eventual starter at NT
3.) B.W. Webb, CB (5'10", 190) - William & Mary - Very athletic corner who adds punt return ability as well
3.) Joe Kruger, DE (6'6", 280) - Utah - 20 year-old version of Margus Hunt with better football bloodlines
4.) Ace Sanders, WR/PR (5'8", 175) - South Carolina - Punt return star and slot WR; might push K-Williams off the roster
4.) Terron Armstead, OT (6'5", 304) - Ark-Pine Bluff - Finally depth at OT; athletic small-school lineman to develop behind Staley
5.) Armonty Bryant, DE/OLB (6'4", 260) - East Central Oklahoma - Could eventually be a better 3-4 pass rusher than Fleming or Johnson
5.) Caleb Sturgis, K (5'10", 186) - Florida - Do I even need to say anything?
6.) Nick Kasa, TE (6'5", 270) - Colorado - Big, fast but very raw TE to develop
6.) T.J. Johnson, OC (6'4", 323) - South Carolina - Interior bruiser; could swing as an OG/OC
7.) Rashard Hall, SS (6'2", 210) - Clemson - Academic All-American with great size and speed for a SS; just needs time to develop
7.) Washaun Ealey, RB (5'11", 220) - Jacksonville St. - Reformed former Georgia Bulldog; he gets a seat on the practice squad
7.) Martavius Neloms, FS (6'0", 190) - Kentucky - Excellent special-teamer, likely practice squad material

Training camp roster
QB - Kap, Tolzien, J-Johnson
RB - Gore, James, Hunter, Dixon, Hampton, Ealey, Miller (FB)
WR - Crabtree, Gibson, Manningham, Jenkins, Hunter, Sanders, K-Williams
TE - V-Davis, Beckum, Celek, Kasa
OT - Staley, A-Davis, Armstead, Netter
OG - Iupati, Boone, Looney, Kilgore (OG/OC)
OC - Goodwin, TJ-Johnson, (Kilgore)

NT - RJF, I-Williams, Hughes
DE - J-Smith, RayMac, D-Jones, Kruger, Tukuafu, Dobbs, Jerrod-Eddie
ILB - Willis, Bowman, Gooden, Wilhoite
OLB - Aldon, Brooks, C-Johnson, Fleming, Bryant
CB - T-Brown, Culliver, Rogers, J-Brown, Cox, Webb
FS - Goldson, Spillman, Neloms
SS - Whitner, T-Robinson, Hall

P - Lee
K - Sturgis
LS - Jennings

Overall i like the mock and the plan. Just have some nitpicking...

1. Alex Smith trade. With so many picks in this years draft i dont think we ask for a 2013 pick. I think its more likely we ask for a 2014 pick for Alex Smith.
2. Kruger is one of the mid round DL i've been reading about (because i like the measurables i've seen on him). He looks like a pretty good mid round guy to me and glad to see him in one our our mocks, though you have him mocked a round earlier then i've been thinking.
3. You have 3x 7th rd picks mocked (2 compensatory)... but with 2 compensatory 7th rounders we should have 4 7th rounders (because we already have 2 7th's before compensatory picks are awarded.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Ghost. I admit that I dont know all of the players on the Lines other than what Ive read. Having said that.. NFL DraftScout would think you are reaching on several picks. Have you seen a lot of these players? I respect that site more than most but they seem to have a far different opinion on these two players.

Joe Kruger - you have him 3rd..... NFL Draftscout has him 7th Rd-FA
Montori Hughes - you have him in 3rd.. NFL Draftscout has him 5th=6th rd

The first sentence in my post:

I'll probably be off in where I'm selecting some of these prospects as of today, but I'm projecting them after the combine where I think many of them will go higher than where they're currently ranked.

IMO, once teams dive into the tape (especially juniors and small-school prospects) and get an up-close look at them at the combine a few of the currently lower-ranked prospects will rise (happens every year). I could be very wrong of course, but this mock stuff is just for fun.

If Isaac Sopoaga is willing to resign for 2.5M/year, then I'd opt for him over Ricky Jean-Francois. RJF showed more promise at DE rather than NT.

The mock is good, but I think you have a huge void at the #2 TE position. The way I understand it, Beckum replaces Walker, and Kasa fights with Celek for the #3 job.

Delanie Walker is on the field for 60+% of the offensive snaps in 2012. I'd feel VERY naked if we replaced Walker with a guy that's been plagued with injuries for his entire career, an UDFA in Celek, and a 5th round raw prospect.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Ghost. I admit that I dont know all of the players on the Lines other than what Ive read. Having said that.. NFL DraftScout would think you are reaching on several picks. Have you seen a lot of these players? I respect that site more than most but they seem to have a far different opinion on these two players.

Joe Kruger - you have him 3rd..... NFL Draftscout has him 7th Rd-FA
Montori Hughes - you have him in 3rd.. NFL Draftscout has him 5th=6th rd

The first sentence in my post:

I'll probably be off in where I'm selecting some of these prospects as of today, but I'm projecting them after the combine where I think many of them will go higher than where they're currently ranked.

IMO, once teams dive into the tape (especially juniors and small-school prospects) and get an up-close look at them at the combine a few of the currently lower-ranked prospects will rise (happens every year). I could be very wrong of course, but this mock stuff is just for fun.

I understand. I was just curious if you had seen these guys play and knew something the guys at Draftscout didnt. I really have never seen them play.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Instead of another retread QB, how about some Matt Scott action in the draft? I'd like to see the 49ers add one quarterback with top athleticism in the later rounds to hopefully develop for a couple of seasons and see what results.

I like what I've seen of Scott. One draft profiler (I believe it was Rob Rang) had very high praise of Scott and said he could be a steal if he's developed by the right coach. We have just that coach. Not saying he'll be a future starter, but finding a good capable backup is essential imo.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Ghost. I admit that I dont know all of the players on the Lines other than what Ive read. Having said that.. NFL DraftScout would think you are reaching on several picks. Have you seen a lot of these players? I respect that site more than most but they seem to have a far different opinion on these two players.

Joe Kruger - you have him 3rd..... NFL Draftscout has him 7th Rd-FA
Montori Hughes - you have him in 3rd.. NFL Draftscout has him 5th=6th rd

The first sentence in my post:

I'll probably be off in where I'm selecting some of these prospects as of today, but I'm projecting them after the combine where I think many of them will go higher than where they're currently ranked.

IMO, once teams dive into the tape (especially juniors and small-school prospects) and get an up-close look at them at the combine a few of the currently lower-ranked prospects will rise (happens every year). I could be very wrong of course, but this mock stuff is just for fun.

I understand. I was just curious if you had seen these guys play and knew something the guys at Draftscout didnt. I really have never seen them play.

No, not likely since that's a pretty respected site. But DraftScout is all about where guys SHOULD be drafted (their rank/value), yet we know guys get drafted sooner than they should all the time due to a variety of factors (need, scheme-fit, coaching preferences, scouting biases, jumping over other teams, etc.) Especially this front office; they don't seem to mind grabbing guys sooner than the perceived value.

Originally posted by GEEK:
If Isaac Sopoaga is willing to resign for 2.5M/year, then I'd opt for him over Ricky Jean-Francois. RJF showed more promise at DE rather than NT.

The mock is good, but I think you have a huge void at the #2 TE position. The way I understand it, Beckum replaces Walker, and Kasa fights with Celek for the #3 job.

Delanie Walker is on the field for 60+% of the offensive snaps in 2012. I'd feel VERY naked if we replaced Walker with a guy that's been plagued with injuries for his entire career, an UDFA in Celek, and a 5th round raw prospect.

I was a huge fane of Walker before this year, but he has really regressed in terms of playmaking and just holding on to the ball. And Beckum was injury free until this past year; he averaged nearly 15 games played per year for the first 3 years of his career. I can live with that.

I like Soap, but think it's time to move on. That said, if he comes back I won't be mad.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Instead of another retread QB, how about some Matt Scott action in the draft? I'd like to see the 49ers add one quarterback with top athleticism in the later rounds to hopefully develop for a couple of seasons and see what results.

Love Scott, but I'm projecting (on nothing other than my intuition) that Harbaugh would rather focus on the continued development of Kap and have guys he already knows/trusts as 2nd and 3rd-stringers. Other than maybe a practice squad kid, having a rookie around next year just seems a little too distracting.

Wow, Ghost. You went to the well a few times on the small school prospects. Don't know the names, but I'm sure you did your homework.

Like the fact that you concentrated on the front seven and the secondary while bolstering the special teams as well. Nice draft! Free agent signings are reasonable based on the Niners cap situation. Would be very happy with this offseason.

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Wow, Ghost. You went to the well a few times on the small school prospects. Don't know the names, but I'm sure you did your homework.

Like the fact that you concentrated on the front seven and the secondary while bolstering the special teams as well. Nice draft! Free agent signings are reasonable based on the Niners cap situation. Would be very happy with this offseason.

Thanks brutha. There's definitely a few gems in the small school talent pool this year!

Ghost.... we might have to rename you SpiritofTrentBaalke soon :) nice job!

A couple of thoughts..... I think we keep Soap for another 2 years at a reasonable price. The college transition to NT is difficult at best and locking down Soap at least for next season would be key. Also, I believe Larry Grant is a FA this year having been signed as an RFA last offseason. If he is a FA this season we'll need some depth at inside LB. I doubt he'll be back in a Niners uniform next year due to both price and he deserves to be a starter. Probably a late 3rd or early 4th could be used here.

I read somewhere that we have upwards of 40 players under contract for 2013 already. With a limited number of roster spots available I wouldn't be surprised to see Baalke package up some 3s and 4s to move up for quality or even trade off a 3 or 4 for higher picks in 2014. its great to have a roster under control, at cap friendly values and talent everywhere you look!

This is probably my favorite offseason I have seen so far.

You might be a tad optomistic on Alex netting a pick and a player. But nobody know that for sure, so I wont argue, and I might try for someone with a little more upside than Gibson in a deep free Agent Wr year as the replacement for Moss. But truely if this was our offseason we would have to be extatic about our chances to be right back here next year....eagerly awaiting the national anthem on sunday.

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:
This is probably my favorite offseason I have seen so far.

You might be a tad optomistic on Alex netting a pick and a player. But nobody know that for sure, so I wont argue, and I might try for someone with a little more upside than Gibson in a deep free Agent Wr year as the replacement for Moss. But truely if this was our offseason we would have to be extatic about our chances to be right back here next year....eagerly awaiting the national anthem on sunday.

Thanks!

Btw, you never know about getting a 2nd day pick and a young player from the Chiefs. That's essentially what Andy Reid got in return for Kevin Kolb who wasn't half as accomplished as Alex Smith. Plus this from Trent Dilfer:

Dilfer, a friend and former teammate of Smith, said he hasn't talked to him in about a month but believes Smith would be a great fit for Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs. "Andy really likes Alex," Dilfer said.

great job on the mock and I love Jalil Brown!