"The Production Ratio was initially proposed by NFL.com's Pat Kirwan in his book titled "Take Your Eye Off the Ball", and is really a very simple formula that adds up sacks and tackles-for-loss and divides them by number of college games played. The resulting ratio is one tool among many - albeit a pretty good one - that measures the playmaking potential of front seven players coming out of college."
The Production Ratio is calculated as follows:
(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS) / NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO
What you want in a Production Ratio is a score of 1.0 or better. Effectively, a score of 1.0 says that a player recorded one splash play in the defensive backfield per game; the higher the number, the better.
The production ratios of the dynamic trio from the 2011 draft are:
Aldon Smith 2.00
JJ Watt 1.85
Von Miller 1.78
Cowboy standout DeMarcus Ware had a production ratio of 1.96.
"This formula, like every other stat-based projective tool, is not going to be a perfect predictor of how successful these players are going to be in the NFL. But it does give you something to think about as you evaluate these players and their potential, and it may be one building block in identifying who this year's playmakers will be - and who won't. "
One weakness that I see with the metric is that it does not take into account the importance of quarterback hurries, which, as was recently pointed out to me, can be as important as sacks.
In addition, the existing formula does not place on value on blocked kicks, extra points, or punts. These blocks like sacks, tackles for loss, and quarterback hurries also happen in the opponents backfield. And in this year's draft there are players who have a substantial number of blocks.
So, I have altered the formula. I have the sum of sacks, tackles for loss, quarterback hurries and blocks divided by the number of career games.
Any number over 1.00 is good and the higher the number, the better.
Here are the production ratios from some players I have as possible picks.
edit: I moved K Short to the list of the defensive ends, because he only weighed 308 lbs at the Senior Bowl weigh in.
Brandon Williams 2.27
John Jenkins 1.00
Jessie Williams 0.62
Kawann Short 1.49
Margus Hunt 1.33
*Sharrif Floyd 1.07
Kapron Lewis-Moore 0.99
David Bass 2.36
Quanterus Smith 1.52
Caleb Schreibeis 1.48
Link to the quoted to article
I hope you find this interesting.
[ Edited by buck on Jan 21, 2013 at 1:37 PM ]