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Baalke's chance for a masterpiece?

I see us only getting a 3rd for Alex at best. Not because he isn't worthy of a higher pick, because teams could just wait for him to be released. I think we will end up giving him up for very little, just to get him out of our division/conference.
Originally posted by Butter:
I think it is all a question of supply and demand. For teams like the Chiefs and Jets who saw their QB throw an inordinate amount interceptions, I think Alex will be very appealing. In this scenario, Kapernick's development behind Smith is also a bit of a selling point. If a team like the Chief's drafts Geno #1 overall, is he likely to be another Cam Newton or RGIII? Or, would he be better off getting a chance to develop behind Smith for a bit?

I think you do raise a valid point though. Maybe a 2nd is too high. I'd be a bit disappointed if they get something lower than a 3rd though.

The problem is that the supply is highly elastic in this case, all a team has to do is wait for the 49ers to release him, which they will if he isn't traded, and then it won't cost his new team any assets. The only reason I think a team will offer a 4th round pick is because A. they don't want to have to fight with other teams over the top quarterback on the market at that time and B. they'll get him at a relative bargain price for a starting QB and will be able to evaluate him before making a longer commitment.

There's also skepticism about how well Alex would transition into another system away from Harbaugh, whether his numbers will remain stable or he'll go back to performing like he did a few years ago. That certainly isn't helping his value.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Dec 23, 2012 at 10:00 AM ]
A Master Piece? Of what? Ass? Woman? Chicken? All three?
Yeah, the teams that will trade for smith are established with a run game and defense, but lack a QB. Those teams just want to get in the playoffs.

As a result. I think smith only has late 3rd, early 4th value.

the one thing we do have going for us, however, is that this is a terrible QB CLASS.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by Butter:
I think it is all a question of supply and demand. For teams like the Chiefs and Jets who saw their QB throw an inordinate amount interceptions, I think Alex will be very appealing. In this scenario, Kapernick's development behind Smith is also a bit of a selling point. If a team like the Chief's drafts Geno #1 overall, is he likely to be another Cam Newton or RGIII? Or, would he be better off getting a chance to develop behind Smith for a bit?

I think you do raise a valid point though. Maybe a 2nd is too high. I'd be a bit disappointed if they get something lower than a 3rd though.

The problem is that the supply is highly elastic in this case, all a team has to do is wait for the 49ers to release him, which they will if he isn't traded, and then it won't cost his new team any assets. The only reason I think a team will offer a 4th round pick is because A. they don't want to have to fight with other teams over the top quarterback on the market at that time and B. they'll get him at a relative bargain price for a starting QB and will be able to evaluate him before making a longer commitment.

There's also skepticism about how well Alex would transition into another system away from Harbaugh, whether his numbers will remain stable or he'll go back to performing like he did a few years ago. That certainly isn't helping his value.

1 Peyton Manning $20,000,000
2 Michael Vick $15,500,000
3 Carson Palmer $13,000,000
4 Eli Manning $13,000,000
5 Philip Rivers $12,000,000
6 Matthew Stafford $12,000,000
7 Ben Roethlisberger $11,600,000
8 Tony Romo $11,500,000
9 Matt Ryan $10,000,000
10 Tom Brady $9,750,000

Who would you rather have out of Smith, Romo, Palmer, Rivers?

With this current draft, lack of available FA QBs, and Alex's success between last season and this year, I don't think he'll sign for less than $8 mil. Teams might actually save money to trade for him at his current price tag. It'd give teams a chance to develop a young QB and still win now.
Also, Smith is an important asset for this off-season, but a big part of this thread was supposed to focus on Balke's draft day maneuvering. Personally, I think there is a very high chance the Niners trade up, several times.
How about trade Alex for something cheap and sign GOLDSTON. That I believe is a must
Anyway he takes a chance on Honey badger if he does not sign GOLDSTON?
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I think people are being unrealistically optimistic about Alex's trade value. It'd be one thing if the 49ers were planning on keeping him long-term but teams know that the 49ers are planning to dump him shortly. Why give up a high draft pick if you can wait a week or two and sign him as a free agent? If I'm a team like the Chiefs, I'm more willing to use my 2nd round pick to draft a quarterback than trade for what many will look at as a veteran stopgap.

I don't think a 2nd rounder is in the cards but an early-mid 4th rounder is quite realistic. Its high enough to reflect the value that acquiring Alex without having to negotiate or compete with other teams for his services will provide.

The bottom line is this. The Niners are not going to keep Alex Smith as a backup and they certainly aren't going to spend any money to keep him on the roster on the off chance that someone will give them a decent pick just to guarantee they get Smith. He's good compared to all the scrubs like Cassel, Quinn, Gabbert, Sanchez, Tebow, Lindley, Skelton, etc. but not a superstar. I think he hits the open market very early in the offseason.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
AB, who is ultimate cap wizard for the 9ers, and has done well in assessing values in upcoming drafts, and Butter, who I don't know much about, both seem to think alex is worth a 2nd at best, or maybe a 3rd. We all know what alex needs:
#1) a steady hand at HC/QB coach and OC, who will be there over the long haul.
#2) a very good OL that can protect him longer than 2-3 seconds.
#3) at least one very good receiver, TE or WR, or receiving RB, who can be counted on to catch a well thrown ball.

Look around at Chiefs, Jets, Eagles, Bills, Cards, JAX, and you don't see a lot of #1, not much of #2, and again, not much of #3, a receiver. Ergo, no matter where alex goes to one of these poor teams, I don't think his chances for excelling or doing well are very high. I suspect the above teams are somewhat aware of that also, but nobody could know that for sure. Nobody has mentioned it, but having alex here as the backup/starter is a HUGE advantage for 49ers going into the playoffs. Lose your QB in playoffs, and you lose your next game. So having alex is a monster advantage for the 9ers at present. He could definitely take us to and win the SB.

That brings up the possibility of a well placed team, (maybe Ravens, Steelers...heck, anybody with a good team who has to have a back up at QB that is ready to play at a high NFL level) being in the market for alex, altho in this case a good team is not going to pony up $7, 8 or $9 mil. to have a backup starting qb. Nor are they going to get alex as backup for a #1 pick. It does remain a possibility tho, that alex COULD go to a SB ready team.

Whether a lesser team or a SB ready team is interested in alex, his trade value after end of season could vary as much as a 1st rd player to maybe a 3rd rd. For the poorer teams, his value could be in the 1st rd range. Unfortunately, he would help those teams least, as they won't have the OL, HC/QB coach , OC, nor receivers that alex needs to play at his best level of Qb. Hence, a SB ready team with a QB with health issues, eg, (steelers) might just be perfect spot for alex.

For desperate teams, trading for alex before he is cut loose or has his bonus signing paid, the chances of getting alex for certain are much higher if he is traded from the 9ers. It would cut down having to go into a bidding war where one of the 6 teams noted above will win and 5 will lose..Factor that in and I could see alex going for player we really need (say a starter on OL, DL, CB, WR) or I could see a #1 pick being traded for alex. There are somewhere between 8-10 very good Qbs in league, and of those 6 are superb(eli, peyton, brady, brees,RG 3, Luck), and alex is QB just below that group. How some can say alex can't or won't bring a 1st rd pick with his numbers and record, is beyond me. I think we are looking at a #1 pick for alex or a trade for a starter at one of slots listed above. Of the 8-10 teams that just HAVE TO HAVE a starting Qb, somebody is going to go out on a limb and get alex at a very favorable trade with us. Look at Matt flynn in SEA, and he isn't even starting. Somebody has already set his sights on alex and is not going to take a chance of losing an established top 6-8 QB in the league. That team is going to pony up a #1 pick.

So to AB and Butter, altho I understand where you are coming from, I believe you are under rating what a desperate team( like the Jets, maybe), will be willing to do to get alex. Remember, whereas this past yr was chuck full of top flite QBs(luck, RG3, SEA's williams), this yr is a different story. That all will factor into what a desperate team will be willing to do to get alex. I look for him to be traded for a #1 pick virtually the moment the SB ends. I could make a case for a bidding war in trading for him also. I say he is a lock for a #1 pick in a trade. None of the desperate teams can take a chance in losing him in a bidding war if released by 9ers.
Good post, you hit the nail on the head. I think Alex's value is being underrated, especially given this year's lack-luster QB FA and draft class. There are a lot of teams who could very much use a proven QB vet who's an expert game manager, won't turn the ball over much, and tough. The Jets come continue to come to mind. They do have a good offensive line and a decent defense. If they bring in an established offensive-minded HC (Norv Turner?) I could see the Jets and Jacksonville making a serious move for Alex. I don't see Alex going to the Cards; the 9ers won't trade him in the division, plus that O-line is horrible. And I don't see Alex going to any team where he won't be the starter, or to a non-playoff capable team. I seriously doubt Alex has the appetite to be a backup (or QB competitions for that matter) after all he's been through, and I don't think the 49ers would trade him to that situation unless the deal is irrefusable. Again, the Jes and Jags come to mind. But that depends on the chages those teams make.
Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
Good post, you hit the nail on the head. I think Alex's value is being underrated, especially given this year's lack-luster QB FA and draft class. There are a lot of teams who could very much use a proven QB vet who's an expert game manager, won't turn the ball over much, and tough. The Jets come continue to come to mind. They do have a good offensive line and a decent defense. If they bring in an established offensive-minded HC (Norv Turner?) I could see the Jets and Jacksonville making a serious move for Alex. I don't see Alex going to the Cards; the 9ers won't trade him in the division, plus that O-line is horrible. And I don't see Alex going to any team where he won't be the starter, or to a non-playoff capable team. I seriously doubt Alex has the appetite to be a backup (or QB competitions for that matter) after all he's been through, and I don't think the 49ers would trade him to that situation unless the deal is irrefusable. Again, the Jes and Jags come to mind. But that depends on the chages those teams make.

Jacksonville is likely going full Tebow. They have Henne who has done a decent job, they'll add Tebow, give him a shot to compete for the starting QB spot, wait a year for a better shot at a franchise QB in the draft. Jets could definitely use Alex but they're screwed with Sanchize's contract. Supposedly he's on the trading block but no GM in their right mind will trade for him and the Jets can't release him due to the massive cap hit they'd take so they'll have to hold on to him, maybe start McElroy next year.


To me, Minnesota is intriguing, they've got a stellar running game, solid OL and defense but their QB play has been highly inconsistent and Ponder isn't very popular there. If they think Alex can provide stability, that could be quite an interesting spot for him. Beyond that, pretty much wherever Reid or Norv end up are possibilities as well.
Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
AB, who is ultimate cap wizard for the 9ers, and has done well in assessing values in upcoming drafts, and Butter, who I don't know much about, both seem to think alex is worth a 2nd at best, or maybe a 3rd. We all know what alex needs:
#1) a steady hand at HC/QB coach and OC, who will be there over the long haul.
#2) a very good OL that can protect him longer than 2-3 seconds.
#3) at least one very good receiver, TE or WR, or receiving RB, who can be counted on to catch a well thrown ball.

Look around at Chiefs, Jets, Eagles, Bills, Cards, JAX, and you don't see a lot of #1, not much of #2, and again, not much of #3, a receiver. Ergo, no matter where alex goes to one of these poor teams, I don't think his chances for excelling or doing well are very high. I suspect the above teams are somewhat aware of that also, but nobody could know that for sure. Nobody has mentioned it, but having alex here as the backup/starter is a HUGE advantage for 49ers going into the playoffs. Lose your QB in playoffs, and you lose your next game. So having alex is a monster advantage for the 9ers at present. He could definitely take us to and win the SB.

That brings up the possibility of a well placed team, (maybe Ravens, Steelers...heck, anybody with a good team who has to have a back up at QB that is ready to play at a high NFL level) being in the market for alex, altho in this case a good team is not going to pony up $7, 8 or $9 mil. to have a backup starting qb. Nor are they going to get alex as backup for a #1 pick. It does remain a possibility tho, that alex COULD go to a SB ready team.

Whether a lesser team or a SB ready team is interested in alex, his trade value after end of season could vary as much as a 1st rd player to maybe a 3rd rd. For the poorer teams, his value could be in the 1st rd range. Unfortunately, he would help those teams least, as they won't have the OL, HC/QB coach , OC, nor receivers that alex needs to play at his best level of Qb. Hence, a SB ready team with a QB with health issues, eg, (steelers) might just be perfect spot for alex.

For desperate teams, trading for alex before he is cut loose or has his bonus signing paid, the chances of getting alex for certain are much higher if he is traded from the 9ers. It would cut down having to go into a bidding war where one of the 6 teams noted above will win and 5 will lose..Factor that in and I could see alex going for player we really need (say a starter on OL, DL, CB, WR) or I could see a #1 pick being traded for alex. There are somewhere between 8-10 very good Qbs in league, and of those 6 are superb(eli, peyton, brady, brees,RG 3, Luck), and alex is QB just below that group. How some can say alex can't or won't bring a 1st rd pick with his numbers and record, is beyond me. I think we are looking at a #1 pick for alex or a trade for a starter at one of slots listed above. Of the 8-10 teams that just HAVE TO HAVE a starting Qb, somebody is going to go out on a limb and get alex at a very favorable trade with us. Look at Matt flynn in SEA, and he isn't even starting. Somebody has already set his sights on alex and is not going to take a chance of losing an established top 6-8 QB in the league. That team is going to pony up a #1 pick.

So to AB and Butter, altho I understand where you are coming from, I believe you are under rating what a desperate team( like the Jets, maybe), will be willing to do to get alex. Remember, whereas this past yr was chuck full of top flite QBs(luck, RG3, SEA's williams), this yr is a different story. That all will factor into what a desperate team will be willing to do to get alex. I look for him to be traded for a #1 pick virtually the moment the SB ends. I could make a case for a bidding war in trading for him also. I say he is a lock for a #1 pick in a trade. None of the desperate teams can take a chance in losing him in a bidding war if released by 9ers.
Good post, you hit the nail on the head. I think Alex's value is being underrated, especially given this year's lack-luster QB FA and draft class. There are a lot of teams who could very much use a proven QB vet who's an expert game manager, won't turn the ball over much, and tough. The Jets come continue to come to mind. They do have a good offensive line and a decent defense. If they bring in an established offensive-minded HC (Norv Turner?) I could see the Jets and Jacksonville making a serious move for Alex. I don't see Alex going to the Cards; the 9ers won't trade him in the division, plus that O-line is horrible. And I don't see Alex going to any team where he won't be the starter, or to a non-playoff capable team. I seriously doubt Alex has the appetite to be a backup (or QB competitions for that matter) after all he's been through, and I don't think the 49ers would trade him to that situation unless the deal is irrefusable. Again, the Jes and Jags come to mind. But that depends on the chages those teams make.


I think the trade talks will also involve the 9ers balancing a 1st or 2nd from someone (say the chiefs) by giving alex smith with some of our lower round draft picks. Example: chiefs 2nd round traded for 9ers alex smith and 9ers own 3rd round pick. Example 2: Raiders 1st round pick for alex smith and our 1st and 3rd round picks. BTW i think the raiders will cut palmer for cap reasons and alex and the raiders defense would add up to an attractive option for the raiders.
I don't think [hope] they'll trade Alex to any NFC team.

The AFC would be a smart move. I still like the Chiefs BUT Phoenix has a good call w/the Jets and Jacksonville.
I wouldn't sign Goldston however I hope Niners resign Goldson.....
Baalke. His last name is Baalke.