Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by Butter:
I think it is all a question of supply and demand. For teams like the Chiefs and Jets who saw their QB throw an inordinate amount interceptions, I think Alex will be very appealing. In this scenario, Kapernick's development behind Smith is also a bit of a selling point. If a team like the Chief's drafts Geno #1 overall, is he likely to be another Cam Newton or RGIII? Or, would he be better off getting a chance to develop behind Smith for a bit?
I think you do raise a valid point though. Maybe a 2nd is too high. I'd be a bit disappointed if they get something lower than a 3rd though.
The problem is that the supply is highly elastic in this case, all a team has to do is wait for the 49ers to release him, which they will if he isn't traded, and then it won't cost his new team any assets. The only reason I think a team will offer a 4th round pick is because A. they don't want to have to fight with other teams over the top quarterback on the market at that time and B. they'll get him at a relative bargain price for a starting QB and will be able to evaluate him before making a longer commitment.
There's also skepticism about how well Alex would transition into another system away from Harbaugh, whether his numbers will remain stable or he'll go back to performing like he did a few years ago. That certainly isn't helping his value.
1 Peyton Manning $20,000,000
2 Michael Vick $15,500,000
3 Carson Palmer $13,000,000
4 Eli Manning $13,000,000
5 Philip Rivers $12,000,000
6 Matthew Stafford $12,000,000
7 Ben Roethlisberger $11,600,000
8 Tony Romo $11,500,000
9 Matt Ryan $10,000,000
10 Tom Brady $9,750,000
Who would you rather have out of Smith, Romo, Palmer, Rivers?
With this current draft, lack of available FA QBs, and Alex's success between last season and this year, I don't think he'll sign for less than $8 mil. Teams might actually save money to trade for him at his current price tag. It'd give teams a chance to develop a young QB and still win now.