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AB's Mock Offseason V1.0

AB instead of extending akers do you think its possible he gets cut? theres some good young kickers coming out and would be cheaper im liking hopkins from florida st he can routinely hit 50 yarders and is pretty accurate as well as the kicker from florida both up for the groza award
AB, you're the man! What do you think is going to happen with Bowman??
AB- respect as always, way more thought and numbers research than I could ever do.

1. I think you are putting to much of a value on the older veterans, and need to take a page from Bill Walsh where maybe they leave a year or two too early, but you are not paying a high percentage of your salary cap to players on the down side of their career.

Delanie Walker- let him test FA, a back up TE/HB/FB is worth no more than 1.5 million a season. Walker can actually be upgraded via the draft for a salary cap cost significantly less than your proposed contract.

David Akers- I love Akers, but he falls under the Walsh plan, if anything I could envision Akers being let go in favor of a young leg. The team is switching to scoring TD's not FG's. He is not the kicker he used to be, see Rams game and number of FG's missed under 45 yards this season.

Justin Smith- This restructuring seems to be for salary cap relief only, it appears to be a 2 year contract with him gone in year 3.

Sopoaga- I differ with you on this. Sopoaga loves SF, it is the closest NFL franchise to American Samoa. He signed with the niners for an under market contract before FA began against the advice of his agent. Sopoaga wants to stay in SF. I think he will sign a reduced contract to stay. 3 years 9 million. Anything more let him walk.

Larry Grant- the team needs to get serious about signing him to a cap friendly deal. Let him test FA, if he cannot get a huge contract, sign him to a cap friendly 5 year contract which is back loaded with less guaranteed money. This way if he does not play up to the contract he can be cut in years 4 or 5 with little cap hit.

Navarro Bowman- Team cannot re sign him, they will have to let him play out his contract and franchise him. I would franchise him for a second round pick or a first. This way you at least get immediate compensation via draft pick if and when you lose him.

Randy Moss- I do not see the value in a one year deal for 2013. I am comfortable with Crabtree, Manningham, Williams, Jenkins as WR plus two draft picks or UDFA's.

Ted Ginn- gone-

Brandon Jacobs- Gone

Alex Smith- Gone- I think Harbaugh and Roman realize he is playing at his ceiling, and move forward with CK7 and Tolzien. I would re structure Tolzien to a 5 year 5 million dollar contract. Tell him it is back up money for a long term back up. I think he would be OK with it, and it would bring stability to the QB position.

Goldson- I LOVE how Goldson is playing, but I think that a good pass rush is more critical than a top paid safety. I would rather Keep Sopoaga, Williams at NT, draft a safety in round 1 this year and let Goldson walk, unless he is willing to sign for 6 million a season.

Quarterback- willing to draft a qb in rounds 4-7 with a high upside, someone to be the #3 long term.

Would not draft an OLB so high. Darius Fleming and Cam Johnson are ideal back ups for the OLB spot. Starters Brooks/Aldon Smith, back ups Darius Fleming/Cam Johnson.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 11,068
AB can you explain why we restructure the deal for Alex Smith and then cut him.

Would it not be cheaper to just not pay him the bonuses due in March and let him become a free agent?

Why would Smith be willing to sign restructured contract and then be cut?
If I am Smith, I would not agree to this restructured contract.

If we do restructure his contract, shouldn't we trade him?

Maybe I am dense, but I just do not understand your logic.
First three drafted are on defense? Niners offense is still lacking behind the defense's performance. And no proven backup at QB?
[ Edited by Paul_Hofer on Nov 25, 2012 at 8:11 AM ]
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
First three drafted are on defense? Niners offense is still lacking behind the defense's performance. And no proven backup at QB?

It makes perfect sense to go defense early. This offense is still growing and is in a sense, younger than the defense. You can see the future of this offense in guys like CK, Jenkins, James, Williams, Davis, Iupati, Kilgore, etc. The defense does not have young talent ready to step in and does not have the depth that the offense appears to have. Whether resign Soap or not, I'd like to see a NT drafted that can come in with the ability to dominate, taking some pressure off of our DEs who then can give our OLBs more openings to get after the QB. I also suspect we will have the most expensive group of LBs in the league for some time (and with those four guys, I don't mind it one bit), so I can see us consistently drafting Dlineman that can come in and play well for lower salaries. The only position on offense I could see us drafting early (with the first 3 rounds) is tackle and TE. We are pretty set everywhere else. And any other position (a big back to compete with Dixon or a QB to develop if Smith is gone ) can wait.
Just like before, some of the free agent signings didn't work out that well and some of the vets will be re-evaluated and if the market price is too high, they'll come back to us for a reasonable price.

The year before, Braylon didn't work out and in year's past, Baas and Snyder priced themselves out of being Niners. Maybe even Costanzo fits in that bucket. Some guys came back, like Larry Grant and Goldson.

Soap, Ginn and Walker are going to have to decide on their salary requirements. Jacobs and Moss will probably move on. Grant and Goldson are in the same boat that they were the previous year.
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
First three drafted are on defense? Niners offense is still lacking behind the defense's performance. And no proven backup at QB?

It makes perfect sense to go defense early. This offense is still growing and is in a sense, younger than the defense. You can see the future of this offense in guys like CK, Jenkins, James, Williams, Davis, Iupati, Kilgore, etc. The defense does not have young talent ready to step in and does not have the depth that the offense appears to have. Whether resign Soap or not, I'd like to see a NT drafted that can come in with the ability to dominate, taking some pressure off of our DEs who then can give our OLBs more openings to get after the QB. I also suspect we will have the most expensive group of LBs in the league for some time (and with those four guys, I don't mind it one bit), so I can see us consistently drafting Dlineman that can come in and play well for lower salaries. The only position on offense I could see us drafting early (with the first 3 rounds) is tackle and TE. We are pretty set everywhere else. And any other position (a big back to compete with Dixon or a QB to develop if Smith is gone ) can wait.
One rookie backup QB and another with an NFL start would be a weakness. Especially behind a guy starting his first full season.

Also, while Niners defense could use backup help, several offensive starting and major backup positions should be improved. Starters at WR, center, HB (a runner with Gore's power but with breakaway speed), FB and 2nd TE and 3rd TE could all be improved.
Originally posted by buck:
AB can you explain why we restructure the deal for Alex Smith and then cut him.

Would it not be cheaper to just not pay him the bonuses due in March and let him become a free agent?

Why would Smith be willing to sign restructured contract and then be cut?
If I am Smith, I would not agree to this restructured contract.

If we do restructure his contract, shouldn't we trade him?

Maybe I am dense, but I just do not understand your logic.

Not restructured, just cut before aprii 1 deadline.
Originally posted by 9erred:
AB- respect as always, way more thought and numbers research than I could ever do.

1. I think you are putting to much of a value on the older veterans, and need to take a page from Bill Walsh where maybe they leave a year or two too early, but you are not paying a high percentage of your salary cap to players on the down side of their career.

Delanie Walker- let him test FA, a back up TE/HB/FB is worth no more than 1.5 million a season. Walker can actually be upgraded via the draft for a salary cap cost significantly less than your proposed contract.

David Akers- I love Akers, but he falls under the Walsh plan, if anything I could envision Akers being let go in favor of a young leg. The team is switching to scoring TD's not FG's. He is not the kicker he used to be, see Rams game and number of FG's missed under 45 yards this season.

Justin Smith- This restructuring seems to be for salary cap relief only, it appears to be a 2 year contract with him gone in year 3.

Sopoaga- I differ with you on this. Sopoaga loves SF, it is the closest NFL franchise to American Samoa. He signed with the niners for an under market contract before FA began against the advice of his agent. Sopoaga wants to stay in SF. I think he will sign a reduced contract to stay. 3 years 9 million. Anything more let him walk.

Larry Grant- the team needs to get serious about signing him to a cap friendly deal. Let him test FA, if he cannot get a huge contract, sign him to a cap friendly 5 year contract which is back loaded with less guaranteed money. This way if he does not play up to the contract he can be cut in years 4 or 5 with little cap hit.

Navarro Bowman- Team cannot re sign him, they will have to let him play out his contract and franchise him. I would franchise him for a second round pick or a first. This way you at least get immediate compensation via draft pick if and when you lose him.

Randy Moss- I do not see the value in a one year deal for 2013. I am comfortable with Crabtree, Manningham, Williams, Jenkins as WR plus two draft picks or UDFA's.

Ted Ginn- gone-

Brandon Jacobs- Gone

Alex Smith- Gone- I think Harbaugh and Roman realize he is playing at his ceiling, and move forward with CK7 and Tolzien. I would re structure Tolzien to a 5 year 5 million dollar contract. Tell him it is back up money for a long term back up. I think he would be OK with it, and it would bring stability to the QB position.

Goldson- I LOVE how Goldson is playing, but I think that a good pass rush is more critical than a top paid safety. I would rather Keep Sopoaga, Williams at NT, draft a safety in round 1 this year and let Goldson walk, unless he is willing to sign for 6 million a season.

Quarterback- willing to draft a qb in rounds 4-7 with a high upside, someone to be the #3 long term.

Would not draft an OLB so high. Darius Fleming and Cam Johnson are ideal back ups for the OLB spot. Starters Brooks/Aldon Smith, back ups Darius Fleming/Cam Johnson.

Justin needs to be extended anyway, so it will help both ways.

I think Grant bolts for money and starting job.

I re-sign Moss and Walker due to vet leadership and Walker has been solid.

Sopoaga worries me. He is a better player, but is older than RJF. And I can see him wanting more money.

Akers I think is having a slump, if he continues it, then we cut him, I just assume he will come back better.
Originally posted by Byisgod:
AB, you're the man! What do you think is going to happen with Bowman??

If Alex is kept than there is no way he is extended in the offseason, but if cut, we can extend Bowman, give him low salaries in 2013 and 2014, then bumped up in 2015, 2016, 2017, etc.... Whatever is left over in cap room can be used as proration of a signing bonus paid up front. Maybe 12-15M signing bonus over extra 5 seasons.
[ Edited by AB83Rules on Nov 25, 2012 at 9:28 AM ]
Originally posted by RollinWith21n52:
My understanding is that Hankins is going much earlier than the mid 1st. Also, not sure that an early 3rd gets you into the mid first from the 30s

I think if need be, just stay at 30-32 and draft John Jenkins then.
Also L.Davis due to vet leadership, he has been great as a backup. So I prefered to have one vet backup.
AB, I have always wanted to ask this question.............what do you do for a living? Are you an accountant or finance geek in real life, too? Your attention to detail is stunning. Nice work!
I would love those first two picks...Floyd is a monster.

Go back to the well with Florida DE's (McDonald)
[ Edited by Sjceruti on Nov 25, 2012 at 12:13 PM ]