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MD was right

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Projected to be selected at 18, but graded by me, and on my board, as the 5th best player in the draft. Big difference since he would be on the 49ers roster if the team followed my board.

No disresepect, but I think everyone, or most agree, we aced the 2011 draft. Aldon's production has been amazing, 18.5 sacks in 21 games is amazing.
I don't know that the 49ers would be better with Watt. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. No one knows how good either team would be if the players were switched. If the Texans beat the 49ers in the Superbowl, maybe this matters. If we win it all, we made the right decision. It's still too early to tell. The bottom line is how well the team plays, not the individual stats of one player. If doesn't matter if we take Ray Finkle in the 1st round, and Stephen Hawking in the 2nd. If we win it all, we made the right decision. The ends justify the means, and we don't know what the ends are yet. I say Aldon is the better fit for us so far. Who's got it better than us? Not even the theoretical hindsight us.
Couple notes: looking back in time, fans assume that McDonald was automatically returning to the Niners. However, he was an unrestricted free agent, and he could have left the team before signing in July 2011.

Second, since the draft was months before McDonald's signing, the team could have gone DL, OLB, or CB to fit a need, since McDonald's signing was not guaranteed. All would have fit a "need".

Third, if the team drafted Watt, they would have saved money on the McDonald contract to invest in other areas on the squad. The role of a GM is to figure out where to prioritize spending to maximize the talent on a team.

Fourth, an argument can be made, based on this year's productivity, that Aldon Smith is lumped together in the same class as other 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB's. Both Robert Quinn and Justin Houston have posted better sack numbers. There is no other 3-4 DE from Watt's class that is in the same universe in talent and productivity.

So, while Aldon Smith has ended up being a very solid draft selection so far, there is no way a team would, in a re-draft, select a player who plays well at a position of need over a guy who is the frontrunner for DPOY, especially at a position where the award is never awarded. Nobody says that a DPOY should have been bypassed because the team already had another couple of good players on their rosters at the position.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
No question Watt is playing extremely well, and the full extent of his talent and potential began to reveal itself last year.

Also no question that no one saw just how great he could be before the draft, or he'd have been drafted in the top 5, maybe even #1 overall that year.

MD had him rated only at #18 in the last version of his big board before that draft.

How does that qualify as being "right?"

Watt is proving to be a great player, but he didn't fit the Niners' greatest need that year.

Aldon did fit the need, and he had a great year himself.

And he was part of what has to be considered a great draft overall that year: Aldon, Culliver, Hunter, Miller, Kaepernick, Kilgore.

Is there another NFL team that had that much success in the draft that year?

Projected to be selected at 18, but graded by me, and on my board, as the 5th best player in the draft. Big difference since he would be on the 49ers roster if the team followed my board.
More revisionist history?

Sorry, but this is the very FIRST mention by you that you had Watt graded #5 overall, and it comes in the second year AFTER the draft in which he was selected!

And you expect us to believe that you, and only you, saw Watt as a top five talent back then? You want us to believe that you seriously did not believe that a single NFL GM or personnel guy ranked him that high--which is the reason why you'd "rank" him down at #18, despite your own very high grade???

Sorry, your post doesn't make sense.

You frequently accuse members of this board of blindly anointing any Niner draft pick as a star once he's picked.

It appears that you do the same thing in reverse: anyone they don't pick who plays great for some other team becomes a star that you (but only you) knew all along was gonna shine, and had listed extremely high on your private, unpublished, secret list of players the Niners should have picked.

Like many others on this board, I enjoy reading your big board, and those of OTC and other draftnicks who like to list players and talk about the draft every year. And your personal evaluation of players, their strengths and weaknesses, etc., is frequently a good read.

But you appear to have this mental block about the Niners front office.

Just because they're the Niners front office doesn't mean they're always right. But it also doesn't mean that they're always wrong.

And how are they supposed to "follow your board" if you never published it, and don't even talk about it until nearly two years after the fact?

There's no problem with continuous close examination of the Niners front office when there's real evidence to support any criticism of them.

You should stick to player rankings and evaluations without proposing some make believe NFL roster of players you "would have" selected.

That "make believe" roster may never lose a game, but it will never win one either, because its only make believe.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Couple notes: looking back in time, fans assume that McDonald was automatically returning to the Niners. However, he was an unrestricted free agent, and he could have left the team before signing in July 2011.

Second, since the draft was months before McDonald's signing, the team could have gone DL, OLB, or CB to fit a need, since McDonald's signing was not guaranteed. All would have fit a "need".

Third, if the team drafted Watt, they would have saved money on the McDonald contract to invest in other areas on the squad. The role of a GM is to figure out where to prioritize spending to maximize the talent on a team.

Fourth, an argument can be made, based on this year's productivity, that Aldon Smith is lumped together in the same class as other 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB's. Both Robert Quinn and Justin Houston have posted better sack numbers. There is no other 3-4 DE from Watt's class that is in the same universe in talent and productivity.

So, while Aldon Smith has ended up being a very solid draft selection so far, there is no way a team would, in a re-draft, select a player who plays well at a position of need over a guy who is the frontrunner for DPOY, especially at a position where the award is never awarded. Nobody says that a DPOY should have been bypassed because the team already had another couple of good players on their rosters at the position.
There's little question TODAY that Watt should have been picked higher than he was. Everybody agrees with that. Question is, who recognized the level of his talent back then, before he was drafted.

Just when does this "redraft" occur? Oh, right, when frogs grow wings, and pigs learn to fly.

Not really fair to criticize the Niners front office for not picking Watt now, nearly two years after the fact. That's like saying "They shoulda taken that Tom Brady QB, I knew all along he was gonna be great."
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
No question Watt is playing extremely well, and the full extent of his talent and potential began to reveal itself last year.

Also no question that no one saw just how great he could be before the draft, or he'd have been drafted in the top 5, maybe even #1 overall that year.

MD had him rated only at #18 in the last version of his big board before that draft.

How does that qualify as being "right?"

Watt is proving to be a great player, but he didn't fit the Niners' greatest need that year.

Aldon did fit the need, and he had a great year himself.

And he was part of what has to be considered a great draft overall that year: Aldon, Culliver, Hunter, Miller, Kaepernick, Kilgore.

Is there another NFL team that had that much success in the draft that year?

Projected to be selected at 18, but graded by me, and on my board, as the 5th best player in the draft. Big difference since he would be on the 49ers roster if the team followed my board.
More revisionist history?

Sorry, but this is the very FIRST mention by you that you had Watt graded #5 overall, and it comes in the second year AFTER the draft in which he was selected!

And you expect us to believe that you, and only you, saw Watt as a top five talent back then? You want us to believe that you seriously did not believe that a single NFL GM or personnel guy ranked him that high--which is the reason why you'd "rank" him down at #18, despite your own very high grade???

Sorry, your post doesn't make sense.

You frequently accuse members of this board of blindly anointing any Niner draft pick as a star once he's picked.

It appears that you do the same thing in reverse: anyone they don't pick who plays great for some other team becomes a star that you (but only you) knew all along was gonna shine, and had listed extremely high on your private, unpublished, secret list of players the Niners should have picked.

Like many others on this board, I enjoy reading your big board, and those of OTC and other draftnicks who like to list players and talk about the draft every year. And your personal evaluation of players, their strengths and weaknesses, etc., is frequently a good read.

But you appear to have this mental block about the Niners front office.

Just because they're the Niners front office doesn't mean they're always right. But it also doesn't mean that they're always wrong.

And how are they supposed to "follow your board" if you never published it, and don't even talk about it until nearly two years after the fact?

There's no problem with continuous close examination of the Niners front office when there's real evidence to support any criticism of them.

You should stick to player rankings and evaluations without proposing some make believe NFL roster of players you "would have" selected.

That "make believe" roster may never lose a game, but it will never win one either, because its only make believe.

Well said.

At the end of the day, MD projected we'd go 6-10 last year with a higher likelihood of us winning only four games than eight. He based this projection on his belief that our front office was completely incompetent and any success was attributed to downright luck or Harbaugh (which he also believed we were also lucky to land). He bashed all of our signings from McDonald, to Rogers, to letting Spikes go, to even the celebrated signing of Akers, to Brooks, to the drafting of Aldon, to the handling of Crabtree, etc. The fact is he has been completely wrong. After all his bashing of this team, we are a powerhouse with a front seven like no other. I think he just wanted to be right more than wanting this team to succeed just so he could say "told you so". Too bad though. You don't get to say that. You don't get to pat yourself on the back over how good Watt is. You get nothing.

I didnt know you could make the Hall of Fame after a better than average first season, and a good start to a second one.

Cant wait for Charlie Garner and Olandis Gary to get in the hall of fame soon
  • 9er2k
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Aldon needs to get used to being on the field all game.Once his body adjusts I'm sure he'll be fine.Lets not forget he could have had 2 extra sacks this year had they not been called back off penalties
I am still confused as to what MD was "right" about. From what I remember, after MD handed out his post draft grades, he was pointing out that the Niners should have made one of two moves. I recall one that would have taken away Smith and Culliver in exchange for Peterson and one that would have taken away Smith in exchange for Gabbert. Don't seem to recall a rallying cry for Watt when the post draft grades were handed out though.



"To me, the Niners may have found best value in trading up to five and grabbing Peterson....if the Cards were willing to make that deal. Most teams do not mind trading down. It would have cost us a third rounder, and we would have secured the top CB in the draft at the most valuable position this team needs right now."



"First Round- Aldon Smith- C gradeSmith was the best OLB left on the board when the Niners selected. He does present a need for the team. However, the team intended on selecting a QB along the way, and missed on grabbing the best one in the draft, Blaine Gabbert. Instead, the team selected Colin Kaepernick, who may not be the best fit for the WCO."
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
More revisionist history?

Sorry, but this is the very FIRST mention by you that you had Watt graded #5 overall, and it comes in the second year AFTER the draft in which he was selected!

And you expect us to believe that you, and only you, saw Watt as a top five talent back then? You want us to believe that you seriously did not believe that a single NFL GM or personnel guy ranked him that high--which is the reason why you'd "rank" him down at #18, despite your own very high grade???

Sorry, your post doesn't make sense.

You frequently accuse members of this board of blindly anointing any Niner draft pick as a star once he's picked.

It appears that you do the same thing in reverse: anyone they don't pick who plays great for some other team becomes a star that you (but only you) knew all along was gonna shine, and had listed extremely high on your private, unpublished, secret list of players the Niners should have picked.

Like many others on this board, I enjoy reading your big board, and those of OTC and other draftnicks who like to list players and talk about the draft every year. And your personal evaluation of players, their strengths and weaknesses, etc., is frequently a good read.

But you appear to have this mental block about the Niners front office.

Just because they're the Niners front office doesn't mean they're always right. But it also doesn't mean that they're always wrong.

And how are they supposed to "follow your board" if you never published it, and don't even talk about it until nearly two years after the fact?

There's no problem with continuous close examination of the Niners front office when there's real evidence to support any criticism of them.

You should stick to player rankings and evaluations without proposing some make believe NFL roster of players you "would have" selected.

That "make believe" roster may never lose a game, but it will never win one either, because its only make believe.

I have bumped the "If you redo" thread for you. I am post #9 on the first page. Here is a copy:

I'd re-do all of the Niners picks. These are the players I would have selected based on my board and team need (unfortunately excluding trades...I would have moved up to select Peterson..even if the cost was high). In having no trades, note the extra selection. I would have bypassed selecting a QB early.Also, I strictly go by a no-cheating clause that does not look at how far a specific player mysteriously fell and selecting him in a later round before the real team selection.

1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia TechThe Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma StWas not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.
7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

As for my best player available board, I have always stated, pre-draft through today, the order I have graded each player. The order, as stated numerous times, was:
1. AJ Green- selected 4th overall; off the board
2. Patrick Peterson- selected 5th overall; off the board
3. Von Miller; selected 2nd overall; off the board
4. Marcell Dareus; selected 3rd overall; off the board
5. JJ Watt- on the board at number 7

There is no revisionist history. I graded Watt better than J. Jones, who went 6th overall, and A. Smith, who went seventh.

I think you are still confused, or choose to be confused, about the concept of my Big Board, which is a projection of where the player is selected in the draft, and a value board/draft rank/best player available. I projected Watt to be selected 18th overall, but in my opinion, he was the 5th best player in the draft. So, to answer your statement....yes, I did have him as a top five best player available pick. I projected on the Big Board for Cam Newton to go number one, but as you notice from my list, I did not grade him a top 5 pick.

Can someone help explain the difference to OND between a draft projection and a draft rank/best player available? I seem to not be able to get through, for years now, even though everyone else on the board seems to understand the concept.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Oct 12, 2012 at 12:53 PM ]
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
More revisionist history?

Sorry, but this is the very FIRST mention by you that you had Watt graded #5 overall, and it comes in the second year AFTER the draft in which he was selected!

And you expect us to believe that you, and only you, saw Watt as a top five talent back then? You want us to believe that you seriously did not believe that a single NFL GM or personnel guy ranked him that high--which is the reason why you'd "rank" him down at #18, despite your own very high grade???

Sorry, your post doesn't make sense.

You frequently accuse members of this board of blindly anointing any Niner draft pick as a star once he's picked.

It appears that you do the same thing in reverse: anyone they don't pick who plays great for some other team becomes a star that you (but only you) knew all along was gonna shine, and had listed extremely high on your private, unpublished, secret list of players the Niners should have picked.

Like many others on this board, I enjoy reading your big board, and those of OTC and other draftnicks who like to list players and talk about the draft every year. And your personal evaluation of players, their strengths and weaknesses, etc., is frequently a good read.

But you appear to have this mental block about the Niners front office.

Just because they're the Niners front office doesn't mean they're always right. But it also doesn't mean that they're always wrong.

And how are they supposed to "follow your board" if you never published it, and don't even talk about it until nearly two years after the fact?

There's no problem with continuous close examination of the Niners front office when there's real evidence to support any criticism of them.

You should stick to player rankings and evaluations without proposing some make believe NFL roster of players you "would have" selected.

That "make believe" roster may never lose a game, but it will never win one either, because its only make believe.

Bumped BPA board from last year. I hide nothing.
Bumped "Your 49ers Top 7" Thread, where I listed in early March 2011, Watt as the 6th best player in the draft.

Unless you have two players at the same level, and one is at a greater position of need, you have to always base your board on how you rank their ability to be great in the NFL. Here would be my board, if you put me on the clock today. All of these players have some question marks, and I am really tracking their Pro-Days to make a final conclusion. I have included what I want to see from each to solidy a final grade.
1) AJ Green- In drills, I want to see consistency in catching the ball.
2) Patrick Peterson- For Peterson, it is all about proving he can change directions quickly and effortlessly. I'd love to see him drop 10 pounds as well.
3) Marcel Dareus- Love the weight gain, especially as a potential for being a 3-4 NT prospect. Didn't love the reps at 24. Want to see him in the 30's in his Pro-Day.
4) Von Miller- Keep the weight at 245+, and continue working on playing in reverse.
5) Blaine Gabbert- Put on a show. I have no doubt he will do so. In the past few 6 years, the top QB prospect going into the Pro-Day portion of offseason workouts has played lights out at his Pro-Day. There is no reason to think that Gabbert breaks the trend (Bradford, Stafford, Ryan, Russell, Young, Smith)
6) JJ Watt- Continue to show the size, speed, strength combination that makes him special.
7) Cameron Jordan- See note on Watt.One final note: It is tough to be a top level prospect and have character concerns. Discipline, devotion, love for yourself, team, city, and family usually bring out the best in athletes in the NFL. All of the guys on the list are considered quality guys, guys who do not have police blotter on them.

In the month that followed, I dropped Gabbert and Jordan lower, and Watt filled in as my 5th best player available.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
More revisionist history?

Sorry, but this is the very FIRST mention by you that you had Watt graded #5 overall, and it comes in the second year AFTER the draft in which he was selected!

And you expect us to believe that you, and only you, saw Watt as a top five talent back then? You want us to believe that you seriously did not believe that a single NFL GM or personnel guy ranked him that high--which is the reason why you'd "rank" him down at #18, despite your own very high grade???

Sorry, your post doesn't make sense.

You frequently accuse members of this board of blindly anointing any Niner draft pick as a star once he's picked.

It appears that you do the same thing in reverse: anyone they don't pick who plays great for some other team becomes a star that you (but only you) knew all along was gonna shine, and had listed extremely high on your private, unpublished, secret list of players the Niners should have picked.

Like many others on this board, I enjoy reading your big board, and those of OTC and other draftnicks who like to list players and talk about the draft every year. And your personal evaluation of players, their strengths and weaknesses, etc., is frequently a good read.

But you appear to have this mental block about the Niners front office.

Just because they're the Niners front office doesn't mean they're always right. But it also doesn't mean that they're always wrong.

And how are they supposed to "follow your board" if you never published it, and don't even talk about it until nearly two years after the fact?

There's no problem with continuous close examination of the Niners front office when there's real evidence to support any criticism of them.

You should stick to player rankings and evaluations without proposing some make believe NFL roster of players you "would have" selected.

That "make believe" roster may never lose a game, but it will never win one either, because its only make believe.

Bumped BPA board from last year. I hide nothing.

You bumped the 2012 thread, didnt you mean 2011?
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
You bumped the 2012 thread, didnt you mean 2011?

Searching for the 2011 BPA board. For now, please refer to the "Your 49ers Top 7" thread which has Watt as my number 6 BPA a month and a half before the draft.

The reason I posted the 2012 board is that OND is insinuating that I create revisionist history to back my thoughts. As you can see with the numerous bumps from past threads regarding the 2011 draft, I hide nothing. I don't make stuff up, and when I error, it is for all to see.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Oct 12, 2012 at 1:12 PM ]
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I have bumped the "If you redo" thread for you. I am post #9 on the first page. Here is a copy:

I'd re-do all of the Niners picks. These are the players I would have selected based on my board and team need (unfortunately excluding trades...I would have moved up to select Peterson..even if the cost was high). In having no trades, note the extra selection. I would have bypassed selecting a QB early.Also, I strictly go by a no-cheating clause that does not look at how far a specific player mysteriously fell and selecting him in a later round before the real team selection.

1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.
2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.
3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.
4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.
4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.
5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia TechThe Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.
6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.
6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.
6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.
7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma StWas not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.
7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.
7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

As for my best player available board, I have always stated, pre-draft through today, the order I have graded each player. The order, as stated numerous times, was:
1. AJ Green- selected 4th overall; off the board
2. Patrick Peterson- selected 5th overall; off the board
3. Von Miller; selected 2nd overall; off the board
4. Marcell Dareus; selected 3rd overall; off the board
5. JJ Watt- on the board at number 7

There is no revisionist history. I graded Watt better than J. Jones, who went 6th overall, and A. Smith, who went seventh.
Oh, I remember you posting this AFTER the draft. And its correct that after the draft you were higher on Watt than many others.

But BEFORE the draft you had Watt "ranked" #18.

Now, without the lecture about how a big board is just a ranking of where players might be picked, not a listing according to their respective abilities, please explain how you would project Watt to be taken at #18 overall when he was actually, in your opinion, at least the 5th best player available.

Because even though big boards are not listings of players according to talent, a player's talent and ability is unquestionably a big part, a major consideration, in determining where that player should be "ranked" according to potential selection.

In other words, if someone really knew that Watt was gonna be as good as he's shown to date, he would have been "ranked" a top 5 player, if not #1 overall--the talent and ability he's shown since the draft makes him that good. There's got to be a number of other teams that picked before #11 in that draft that would love to have him now.

Sorry, but but your "ranking" of Watt as #18 on your big board BEFORE the draft is much more convincing and telling evidence of how you actually ranked Watt's talent and ability at that time than some POST DRAFT hypothetical, make believe "redo" or "re-draft."