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MD was right

Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Aldon Smith may be better. Still think Watt is an absolutely great player.

From my point of view, this thread simply is not about who is the better player.

I would say that remains to be seen and even then that debate, interesting as it may be, might not have a clear answer.

Maddog graded Aldon's pick as a C. Clearly, evaluations that had Aldon pick rated higher than a C are more realistic.
.


He's clearly not a C. More like an A+.
Personally I never quite understood the "grading" of a draft pick right after it happened. No one knows how its going to turn out, not even the GM that picked him.

Post-draft, analysis is better served by telling people the type of player that was picked, how he fits in, and how (or if) he can contribute in year 1.

Aldon Smith, IMO, could clearly contribute right away as a pass-rusher specialist. Somehwere I posted about Aldon could be brought in on 3rd downs and get some pressure, but would take time to learn the OLB position. His rapid rise was a complete surprise to me and is why he has become such a dominant player. If someone could say with a straight face they knew Aldon would adapt to the NFL so fast, they are lying or just got lucky with a random guess. You could see it in his rookie year how the staff was grooming him and bringing him along.

Harbaugh's staff has shown an uncanny ability to teach new positions to players which has been a game changer in terms of developing drafted players. You might think a player is a long term project, next thing you know he is the starting FB. Kaep's accuracy and reading defenses has improved by light years since his rookie year.
[ Edited by SunDevilNiner79 on Nov 27, 2012 at 6:17 PM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
He's clearly not a C. More like an A+.


I think I rated the Aldon pick as a B+ or an A-, and apparently I was wrong also.
  • buck
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Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Personally I never quite understood the "grading" of a draft pick right after it happened. No one knows how its going to turn out, not even the GM that picked him.

Post-draft, analysis is better served by telling people the type of player that was picked, how he fits in, and how (or if) he can contribute in year 1.

Aldon Smith, IMO, could clearly contribute right away as a pass-rusher specialist. Somehwere I posted about Aldon could be brought in on 3rd downs and get some pressure, but would take time to learn the OLB position. His rapid rise was a complete surprise to me and is why he has become such a dominant player. If someone could say with a straight face they knew Aldon would adapt to the NFL so fast, they are lying or just got lucky with a random guess. You could see it in his rookie year how the staff was grooming him and bringing him along.

Harbaugh's staff has shown an uncanny ability to teach new positions to players which has been a game changer in terms of developing drafted players. You might think a player is a long term project, next thing you know he is the starting FB. Kaep's accuracy and reading defenses has improved by light years since his rookie year.

Very true.

Baallke, Harbaugh, and company are proving to quite adept at both selecting and coaching the players.

Just look at what the coaching staff has done with that draft.

Aldon Smith-- no comment needed
Colin Kaepernick--what a transformation and in less than two years.
Miller--DE to solid starting fullbuck
Chris Culliver--from safety to good corner back.
lol at this thread
Originally posted by buck:
As I said, your call on Watt becoming a great player was indisputable.

The point I raised, and I raising again, is that your call on Aldon Smith was wrong.

Here is your commentary on the drafting of Aldon.

First Round- Aldon Smith- C grade Smith was the best OLB left on the board when the Niners selected. He does present a need for the team. However, the team intended on selecting a QB along the way, and missed on grabbing the best one in the draft, Blaine Gabbert. Instead, the team selected Colin Kaepernick, who may not be the best fit for the WCO. As for Smith, he is a good straight ahead rush backer. At the same time, he is not an elite athlete, which is what you want from a guy this high on the board. Smith's shuttle numbers at the combine, which show change of direction skills, was amongst the worst for the DE class. He only pressed the bar 20 times, which is not horrible for a guy with a long wingspan, but still mediocre. Smith's long jump, which measures explosiveness, was average, and his cone time was poor. So, while he posted good numbers at Missouri, and certainly has a big upside, the current Smith is not an elite Smith, and to me, too risky for the 7th overall. Can he be great? Maybe. But, once again, the team is not drafting in the 15th, or 20th, or 25th spot. This is the 7th overall. Just not good value.

By the way, you argued that drafting Aldon we lost the chance to draft Blaine Gabbert in the first. You did not argue that we should have drafted JJ Watt.

It would be nice to see you in a simple straight forward fashion just acknowledge that your call on the drafting of Aldon Smith was incorrect.

I have already long ago came put and said that based on the performances of Smith and others from this class that a C grade was way too low. This has been an A class for sure. As for Gabbert, his prospect as the best QB from this class looks grim, although of all positions, it takes QB's a long time to see who pans out as best, since many have long careers, and some are late bloomers.
I never advocated the selection of Gabbert in that slot, since I graded Watt higher than anone else on the board at seven. In fact, I advocated bypassing an early selection of a QB since A. Smith had a chance to turn things around. I advocated using a fifth rounder on Tyrod Taylor, who is backing up Flacco in Baltimore.

In regards to Smith, my grade was based on his selection at seven, which I termed as risky. The drafting of Smith at seven was then, and is still wrong with Watt on the board. If Watt was gone at six, and the Niners then selecting Smith at 7, then they got it right. You have to select the best player on our board, and the Niners did not. Did they get a great consolation prize? Absolutely.

If you want to visit my 2011 draft, please see the thread with keyword, "Redo". I am the 9th post on the first page. It posts the round by round selections of players, the bypassing of a trade in the second round, etc. Some of thr guys in my draft had solid weekends a few days ago, including Marcus Cannon of the Pats, Justin Rogers of the Bills, Charles Clay of the Dolphins. My second rounder, Rodney Hudson was the starting center for KC before going on IR.

My 2012 class also looks solid with the recent play of Peter Konz, Mohamed Sanu, and Vick Ballard, who is one of the best rookies in the NFL this season. Cheers.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Nov 27, 2012 at 9:52 PM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I have already long ago came put and said that based on the performances of Smith and others from this class that a C grade was way too low. This has been an A class for sure. As for Gabbert, his prospect as the best QB from this class looks grim, although of all positions, it takes QB's a long time to see who pans out as best, since many have long careers, and some are late bloomers.
I never advocated the selection of Gabbert in that slot, since I graded Watt higher than anone else on the board at seven. In fact, I advocated bypassing an early selection of a QB since A. Smith had a chance to turn things around. I advocated using a fifth rounder on Tyrod Taylor, who is backing up Flacco in Baltimore.

In regards to Smith, my grade was based on his selection at seven, which I termed as risky. The drafting of Smith at seven was then, and is still wrong with Watt on the board. If Watt was gone at six, and the Niners then selecting Smith at 7, then they got it right. You have to select the best player on our board, and the Niners did not. Did they get a great consolation prize? Absolutely.

If you want to visit my 2011 draft, please see the thread with keyword, "Redo". I am the 9th post on the first page. It posts the round by round selections of players, the bypassing of a trade in the second round, etc. Some of thr guys in my draft had solid weekends a few days ago, including Marcus Cannon of the Pats, Justin Rogers of the Bills, Charles Clay of the Dolphins. My second rounder, Rodney Hudson was the starting center for KC before going on IR.

My 2012 class also looks solid with the recent play of Peter Konz, Mohamed Sanu, and Vick Ballard, who is one of the best rookies in the NFL this season. Cheers.

I missed your earlier statement, or misunderstood it.

We agree that your grade of a C for Smith was too low.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by buck:
As I said, your call on Watt becoming a great player was indisputable.

The point I raised, and I raising again, is that your call on Aldon Smith was wrong.

Here is your commentary on the drafting of Aldon.

First Round- Aldon Smith- C grade Smith was the best OLB left on the board when the Niners selected. He does present a need for the team. However, the team intended on selecting a QB along the way, and missed on grabbing the best one in the draft, Blaine Gabbert. Instead, the team selected Colin Kaepernick, who may not be the best fit for the WCO. As for Smith, he is a good straight ahead rush backer. At the same time, he is not an elite athlete, which is what you want from a guy this high on the board. Smith's shuttle numbers at the combine, which show change of direction skills, was amongst the worst for the DE class. He only pressed the bar 20 times, which is not horrible for a guy with a long wingspan, but still mediocre. Smith's long jump, which measures explosiveness, was average, and his cone time was poor. So, while he posted good numbers at Missouri, and certainly has a big upside, the current Smith is not an elite Smith, and to me, too risky for the 7th overall. Can he be great? Maybe. But, once again, the team is not drafting in the 15th, or 20th, or 25th spot. This is the 7th overall. Just not good value.

By the way, you argued that drafting Aldon we lost the chance to draft Blaine Gabbert in the first. You did not argue that we should have drafted JJ Watt.

It would be nice to see you in a simple straight forward fashion just acknowledge that your call on the drafting of Aldon Smith was incorrect.

I have already long ago came put and said that based on the performances of Smith and others from this class that a C grade was way too low. This has been an A class for sure. As for Gabbert, his prospect as the best QB from this class looks grim, although of all positions, it takes QB's a long time to see who pans out as best, since many have long careers, and some are late bloomers.
I never advocated the selection of Gabbert in that slot, since I graded Watt higher than anone else on the board at seven. In fact, I advocated bypassing an early selection of a QB since A. Smith had a chance to turn things around. I advocated using a fifth rounder on Tyrod Taylor, who is backing up Flacco in Baltimore.

In regards to Smith, my grade was based on his selection at seven, which I termed as risky. The drafting of Smith at seven was then, and is still wrong with Watt on the board. If Watt was gone at six, and the Niners then selecting Smith at 7, then they got it right. You have to select the best player on our board, and the Niners did not. Did they get a great consolation prize? Absolutely.

If you want to visit my 2011 draft, please see the thread with keyword, "Redo". I am the 9th post on the first page. It posts the round by round selections of players, the bypassing of a trade in the second round, etc. Some of thr guys in my draft had solid weekends a few days ago, including Marcus Cannon of the Pats, Justin Rogers of the Bills, Charles Clay of the Dolphins. My second rounder, Rodney Hudson was the starting center for KC before going on IR.

My 2012 class also looks solid with the recent play of Peter Konz, Mohamed Sanu, and Vick Ballard, who is one of the best rookies in the NFL this season. Cheers.

Funny how you put yourself out there in terms of draft opinions and then get criticized for it. If everyone was spot on Michael Jordan would have been drafted first and JJ Watt shouldn't have even made it to the 9ers at 7.

Post more please.....I appreciate your knowledge and effort.
Originally posted by bzborow1:
Funny how you put yourself out there in terms of draft opinions and then get criticized for it. If everyone was spot on Michael Jordan would have been drafted first and JJ Watt shouldn't have even made it to the 9ers at 7.

Post more please.....I appreciate your knowledge and effort.

Thanks for your comments. You hit sometimes and you miss. I feel confident about my calls before, during and after, and always have a strong rationale behind each observation. Of course, once you put yourself out there, you are a target, especially when you make any critique of the team.
  • kush
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Originally posted by WINiner:
Maddog is one of my least liked posters, and I disagree with him often, but when it comes to Watt and Smith he is 100% correct. Our team would be better with JJ Watt than we are with Aldon Smith.

JJ Watt is going to be a HoF type player, while Aldon is going to be real good, but not the level of Watt. Barring injury of course.

Gotta give credit where it's due.

Personally? I've not seen Watt take over games like Aldon did against Chicago. Therefore, I have to respectfully disagree.
Originally posted by billbird2111:
Personally? I've not seen Watt take over games like Aldon did against Chicago. Therefore, I have to respectfully disagree.

I respectfully disagree with your respectful disagreement.

Houston didn't get much exposure the first half of the season, but Watt was huge in making game-changing plays:

* In the first game, the Texans came out flat and were behind the Dolphins after one quarter. Watt deflects two balls for INT's in the second quarter leading to two touchdowns, and by half, the Texans were up 24-3. Honestly, I don't think Aldon, who has had great sack numbers, had anything close to an impactful quarter as this one quarter, which set up the Texans the rest of the year.

* In the Jets Monday night game, the Texans were up by 7 going into half, with the Jets inside the ten yard line. Watt deflects a ball headed toward an open receiver, and the DB returns it back deep into Jets territory. The Texans get a field goal out of play and the 10 point swing changes the game completely.

You could argue that Watt changed two of the first 5 games of the season in the Texans' favor. The number of deflections (13, sixth in the NFL behind 5 DB's), hits, pressures, tackles for loss (second in the NFL), tackles (54; first in the NFL for DL) and sacks (14.5 for a 3-4 DE is crazy phenomenal) has been pretty consistently strong throughout the year.

In the last two games (against the Jags and Lions), Watt's play in the fourth quarter and overtime was gigantic in the Texans' wins. In the Thanksgiving game, Watt makes two sacks to push the Lions out of field goal range on two drives. That was massive.

Aldon Smith was terrific, amazing, sensational, unreal, you fill in the word in the Bears' game, especially with 5.5 sacks. However, his impact has not been on par with many other defenders across the season, such as Watt, Charles Tillman, Von Miller and even Geno Atkins. To me, he would be fifth on the DPOY ballot after these defenders. Pro Football Focus has him seventh overall in their DPOY ballot.

There is no doubt the Niners got a monster in Smith. At the same time, Miller and Watt are better all-around players, and I would say clearly more impactful. I believe nearly every writer who follows the game would agree.
Hey MD - Keep 'em coming. ALWAYS appreciate your opinions.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by bzborow1:
Funny how you put yourself out there in terms of draft opinions and then get criticized for it. If everyone was spot on Michael Jordan would have been drafted first and JJ Watt shouldn't have even made it to the 9ers at 7.

Post more please.....I appreciate your knowledge and effort.

Thanks for your comments. You hit sometimes and you miss. I feel confident about my calls before, during and after, and always have a strong rationale behind each observation. Of course, once you put yourself out there, you are a target, especially when you make any critique of the team.

The problem has always been the way you handle yourself, not your critique. There are plenty of other posters who go out on a limb and make predictions or give logical critique, but without all the drama. Why? Because you have in the past been a condescending prick, pointing to those who disagree with you as not as intelligent as you, in innumerable ways. Furthermore, when you have been blatantly wrong, you've twisted things as to never really admitting, "hey guys, I just flat out got this wrong." For example, I remember quite well your avid criticism of Baalke, yet haven't once heard you say anything other than he's just lucked out on any of his previous decisions. It's your condescension, combined with unwillingness to eat crow when you've stepped over others' opinions in the process, and then you ignore your stances when they turn out wrong, that have rubbed people the wrong way. IMHO.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by bzborow1:
Funny how you put yourself out there in terms of draft opinions and then get criticized for it. If everyone was spot on Michael Jordan would have been drafted first and JJ Watt shouldn't have even made it to the 9ers at 7.

Post more please.....I appreciate your knowledge and effort.

Thanks for your comments. You hit sometimes and you miss. I feel confident about my calls before, during and after, and always have a strong rationale behind each observation. Of course, once you put yourself out there, you are a target, especially when you make any critique of the team.

The problem has always been the way you handle yourself, not your critique. There are plenty of other posters who go out on a limb and make predictions or give logical critique, but without all the drama. Why? Because you have in the past been a condescending prick, pointing to those who disagree with you as not as intelligent as you, in innumerable ways. Furthermore, when you have been blatantly wrong, you've twisted things as to never really admitting, "hey guys, I just flat out got this wrong." For example, I remember quite well your avid criticism of Baalke, yet haven't once heard you say anything other than he's just lucked out on any of his previous decisions. It's your condescension, combined with unwillingness to eat crow when you've stepped over others' opinions in the process, and then you ignore your stances when they turn out wrong, that have rubbed people the wrong way. IMHO.

Wow. I dont think you like MD very much.