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Sketching out our 2013 Draft Needs

Super Early, but I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the 2013 nfl draft.

First off, I think the writing is on the wall that Goldson is gone after the season. He'll be making $6m per season next year -- if we can get him a contract. As a result, replacing him with a rookie safety that competes with Trent Robinson for a starting role. Harrison Smith's contract with the Vikings was around $1.5m per season - so expect that. We use the money to extend Bowman. so,

1. Safety

Next, we have a lot of free agents on the defensive line next year and in 2013. RJF and Soap are both free agents -- I don't know if we'll re-sign them. I imagine we'll try to re-sign Soap. Justin smith is also a free agent in 2013. As a result, NT/DL is a high priority.

2. Defensive Line - Nose Tackle in particular

Next, Delanie Walker is as good as gone after the season for what he makes. We'll take a TE in the first three rounds as a replacement.

3. Tight End

Priorities after those three are primarily in the secondary, along with another outside linebacker.

A preliminary mock for our four picks in the first round:

Round 1 (32) Safety TJ McDonald, 6-3/205 - USC
Round 2 (64) Jesse Williams, DL, Alabama
Round 3 (75 - From Carolina) Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
Round 4 (96) Mister Cobble, NT, Kentucky
OLB before any TE
updated on bottom of page 7
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Oct 3, 2012 at 12:14 AM ]
Originally posted by Gore_21:
It's being discussed in a few threads already but here is what I put:

LIKELY NEEDS:
#3 and/or #4 OLB - Depending on if we keep Parys or not we will need 1 or possibly 2 guys. Who knows what Fleming will bring and Cam seems to have nice size but needs to get stronger. Haggins won't be around next year most likely.

3rd Tackle - We don't want to be shuffling Boone around if he is playing well at G. With Person and Hall gone that leaves Wiggins as the only backup T (ps).

5th CB - Brock could be upgraded or get someone good enough to bump everyone down and make the group that much better.

Backup S - Between Spillman and Robinson not sure we have a reliable backup FS or SS.

POSSIBLE NEEDS:
FS - Will Goldson re-sign and are they comfortable with Spillman starting?

C - Goodwin could be replaced after this year. Is Kilgore the future at center?

WR - Ginn and Moss would be FAs leaving Manningham, Crabtree, Jenkins and Williams (maybe Palmer if he makes it on PS all yr). If Moss does well and is back then it might not be a concern.

NT - Sopoaga and Ricky Jean-Francois are free agents. Look for us to re-sign at least one of them. Not sure Ian Williams could start. If we re-sign one or the other and Ian is the backup I would be fairly confident and maybe not get a guy until late. ILB - Only if we lose Larry Grant and/or Tavares Gooden to FA Down the list...

DE - Good backups in RJF, Tukuafu and Dobbs but if RJF is starting NT we could use another guy.

TE - Only need a #2 if we lose Walker to FA. Possibly a #3.

1. we drafted two OLBs last year - they'll be ready next year

2. looney's got a good chance at winning the RG spot next year -- dude is going to be a beast, and everyone knows that. Boone goes back to swing tackle

3. yeah, we need another CB in the first three rounds or so. Brown is a FA after 2013 as well.

4. need a safety for sure - whitner is also a FA in 2013.

5. Looney can play Center -- he's been working with Jeremy Newberry to improve his skills in that area.

6. We have no business drafting WRs for a long time.

7. RJF is also a FA
History repeats itself. Isaac Sopoaga is from American Samoa, he loves being on theNFL team closest to the Islands. When he was a FA he instructed his agent publicly to get a deal done only with the Niners. The agent was upset and wanted to wait until the start of FA to get leverage, and Sopoaga said no, get me a fair deal and I will stay a niner. Sopoaga will do the same thing again, trust me on that.

Moss- If the niners do well and Randy is happy, he will be back.

OLB- with Darius Fleming and Cam Johnson, we are ok at OLB

Qb set

RB set

Darn, Baalke et al are doing a great job. They can draft BPA, trade picks or get developmental picks. I think true OT, a back up swing Tackle from be high for rounds 2 or 3.
  • sfout
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Parys is with this team for 2013, its a torn tricep while serious it is by no means anywhere near as serious as a torn pectoral muscle or completely switching gears a torn ACL. We will have Parys back in 2013 and probably longer then that unless he opts to test the market in hopes of landing on a OLB needy team willing to overpay.

With a year under their belt both Fleming and Johnson will be able to contribute next season, while there is a chance of them being cut I just dont see it happening. The reports coming out of the local media was that Fleming could be a situational pass rusher in week 1. If its already coming out we envision Fleming as long term backup or someone to keep Brooks' on his best game then I can't see us dipping into the OLB market again unless they player is simply too good to pass up.

Most important needs in terms of draft choice / free agency is
DL
ILB
S
TE
Swing Tackle
WR (we have to resolve the contracts of Ginn and Moss otherwise we could be dipping right back into the market for at minimum a #4 WR. Hopefully we bring back both of them and keep the good things going while Jenkins progressions.
RB We need to see what Jacobs does for us and how much of a factor he is but we might opt to let him walk and go back to 3 RB set but I think 4 is very likely again next year.
[ Edited by sfout on Sep 10, 2012 at 11:37 AM ]
Originally posted by sfout:
Parys is with this team for 2013, its a torn tricep while serious it is by no means anywhere near as serious as a torn pectoral muscle or completely switching gears a torn ACL. We will have Parys back in 2013 and probably longer then that unless he opts to test the market in hopes of landing on a OLB needy team willing to overpay.

With a year under their belt both Fleming and Johnson will be able to contribute next season, while there is a chance of them being cut I just dont see it happening. The reports coming out of the local media was that Fleming could be a situational pass rusher in week 1. If its already coming out we envision Fleming as long term backup or someone to keep Brooks' on his best game then I can't see us dipping into the OLB market again unless they player is simply too good to pass up.

Most important needs in terms of draft choice / free agency is
DL
ILB
S
TE
Swing Tackle
WR (we have to resolve the contracts of Ginn and Moss otherwise we could be dipping right back into the market for at minimum a #4 WR. Hopefully we bring back both of them and keep the good things going while Jenkins progressions.
RB We need to see what Jacobs does for us and how much of a factor he is but we might opt to let him walk and go back to 3 RB set but I think 4 is very likely again next year.

We can't afford Haralson at 2.54M in 2013, plus 300K in bonuses. Right now only 3.5M under, with the cap credit from uncapped year, if we aren't using it now.

Guys like Haralson, Goodwin need to be cut or take pay cut to stay and save cap room. Justin Smith, David Akers and Donte Whitner make sense to redo and extend, and help keep Bowman.

So I don't expect Sopoaga and/or Goldson back. What's more important, Keeping Goldson, Sopoaga or Bowman? Bowman is real deal, Goldson is a bit overrated, and Sopoaga is older, and I don't think he will take much less than the 20M deal he got early in his career.

Moss looks like a keeper if he continues the play. Jacobs depends on how he plays.

RJF is easier to re-sign, same with Delanie. Gooden is easy sign, Grant might leave, Brock won't be back on a RFA tender of 1.26M.

Cap wise, I don't see us keeping everyone, and being tight against the cap, plus we need to pay the draft picks.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by AB83Rules:
1 - We can't afford Haralson at 2.54M in 2013, plus 300K in bonuses. Right now only 3.5M under, with the cap credit from uncapped year, if we aren't using it now.

2 - Guys like Haralson, Goodwin need to be cut or take pay cut to stay and save cap room. Justin Smith, David Akers and Donte Whitner make sense to redo and extend, and help keep Bowman.

3 - So I don't expect Sopoaga and/or Goldson back. What's more important, Keeping Goldson, Sopoaga or Bowman? Bowman is real deal, Goldson is a bit overrated, and Sopoaga is older, and I don't think he will take much less than the 20M deal he got early in his career.

Moss looks like a keeper if he continues the play. Jacobs depends on how he plays.

RJF is easier to re-sign, same with Delanie. Gooden is easy sign, Grant might leave, Brock won't be back on a RFA tender of 1.26M.

Cap wise, I don't see us keeping everyone, and being tight against the cap, plus we need to pay the draft picks.

1 - I couldn't agree more but I think this injury completely gives us the leverage to force a pay cut on him. He knows that coming off a fairly major injury like that and knowing he is just a backup he cant risk trying to tell us to shove it. He'd get a minimum deal anywhere he went if we cut him so he will have to decide whats more important. Winning or money/starting -- my point is a bit of a double edge sword. I think Fleming could/will supplant Haralson as the primary backup, thus making him expendable so that is why I dont see us taking another OLB unless he is the BPA.

2 - I think we will just re-do Goodwin's deal and swap him him Kilgore. It really seems like he is the "Center of the Future" and all we need to do is see him in real game action as a center sometime this season during mop-up duty. That way we will have a veteran fallback if Kilgore struggles or gets hurt.

All 3 of them will definitely get new contract offers in training camp next year, I agree on that. for example Whitner is the real deal for our D -- intelligent and a complete player in terms of tackling and coverage ability. He can lay the lick on people (see Pierre Thomas' soul on the 5 yard line) and can make the plays in coverage (see yesterdays diving PD), unlike Goldson we can count on Whitner on any given play.

3 - Again you speak the truth, Sopoaga will have to chose between our winning culture or maybe if a team offers him a big deal on the market but with Williams progressing I could see us telling him to shove it or taking a DL with our 1st pick this spring.

I've always said our defensive scheme makes all of our DBs look better then they are and couldn't agree more on Goldson, while fairly good he is inconsistent and just as often as he comes up with the big play he whiffs on a tackle and the guy scores a TD or something. I would be much happier if we signed a FS in FA or drafted 1 very early this spring and let Goldson walk. See #2 for my opinion on Whitner/Goldson.

Bowman is legit /discussion on that - I cant wait for the day we extend him and we dont have to worry about losing him.

4 - Remaining things, I could see us getting a solid 2 years out of Moss especially if we go deep into the playoffs/win the SB but at the same time I could see him riding off into the sunset if we win the SB, so he is definitely a wait and see situation.

Jacobs, if preseason indicates the Jacobs we have then I could see us keeping him as long as we keep Gore, especially if we can just string it into a 2 year extension worth maybe 2-3 mill a year max.

RJF should be easier to retain but with him being our top backup I could see him getting a solid looksee from many teams, maybe he becomes the starting NT and we let Sopoaga walk? that seems fairly likely IMHO.

DW is an asset at #2 TE but I can't help but think we can upgrade at that position, I dont see him leaving us by choice, it'll come down to the FO wanting to keep him or draft a replacement.

ILB just scares me because while Grant was not a hot commodity as an RFA I have a feeling several teams will come calling with moderately priced deals now that a draft pick isn't attached to him. Gooden will be back unless we deem him surplus but I my nervousness over this position is kept in check with Michael Wilhoite on PS. I think he can definitely step in as a backup next season.
  • Karma
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Originally posted by AB83Rules:
We can't afford Haralson at 2.54M in 2013, plus 300K in bonuses. Right now only 3.5M under, with the cap credit from uncapped year, if we aren't using it now.

Guys like Haralson, Goodwin need to be cut or take pay cut to stay and save cap room. Justin Smith, David Akers and Donte Whitner make sense to redo and extend, and help keep Bowman.

So I don't expect Sopoaga and/or Goldson back. What's more important, Keeping Goldson, Sopoaga or Bowman? Bowman is real deal, Goldson is a bit overrated, and Sopoaga is older, and I don't think he will take much less than the 20M deal he got early in his career.

Moss looks like a keeper if he continues the play. Jacobs depends on how he plays.

RJF is easier to re-sign, same with Delanie. Gooden is easy sign, Grant might leave, Brock won't be back on a RFA tender of 1.26M.

Cap wise, I don't see us keeping everyone, and being tight against the cap, plus we need to pay the draft picks.

I love being able to count on your cap knowledge. You say we are 3.5 mil under the cap for next year. Is that taking a likely increase in the cap into consideration? They only increased the cap a small amount this year because of the lockout/ uncapped year. Does that mean we are likely headed for a bigger increase? That would seem to be the deciding factor for many of our FA priorities.
Originally posted by Karma:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
We can't afford Haralson at 2.54M in 2013, plus 300K in bonuses. Right now only 3.5M under, with the cap credit from uncapped year, if we aren't using it now.

Guys like Haralson, Goodwin need to be cut or take pay cut to stay and save cap room. Justin Smith, David Akers and Donte Whitner make sense to redo and extend, and help keep Bowman.

So I don't expect Sopoaga and/or Goldson back. What's more important, Keeping Goldson, Sopoaga or Bowman? Bowman is real deal, Goldson is a bit overrated, and Sopoaga is older, and I don't think he will take much less than the 20M deal he got early in his career.

Moss looks like a keeper if he continues the play. Jacobs depends on how he plays.

RJF is easier to re-sign, same with Delanie. Gooden is easy sign, Grant might leave, Brock won't be back on a RFA tender of 1.26M.

Cap wise, I don't see us keeping everyone, and being tight against the cap, plus we need to pay the draft picks.

I love being able to count on your cap knowledge. You say we are 3.5 mil under the cap for next year. Is that taking a likely increase in the cap into consideration? They only increased the cap a small amount this year because of the lockout/ uncapped year. Does that mean we are likely headed for a bigger increase? That would seem to be the deciding factor for many of our FA priorities.
no
Originally posted by sfout:


Bowman is legit /discussion on that - I cant wait for the day we extend him and we dont have to worry about losing him.

ILB just scares me because while Grant was not a hot commodity as an RFA I have a feeling several teams will come calling with moderately priced deals now that a draft pick isn't attached to him. Gooden will be back unless we deem him surplus but I my nervousness over this position is kept in check with Michael Wilhoite on PS. I think he can definitely step in as a backup next season.

Niners will have a huge decision soon on if they can afford to extend Bowman or a) extend Larry Grant b) look for a replacement via draft or free agency. Bowman will not come cheap. I think they will opt for a cheaper option via the Patriot's model
[ Edited by BigYellowKahuna on Sep 10, 2012 at 4:32 PM ]
Delanie is too small to be a good TE, imo...will be gone anyway, thus we will go after a TE in rounds 1-3, imo.
Safety-positions will under watch, imo.
RB could be another position which could be drafted for early...Jacobs is 30 already, Gore will be 30 next year. Hunter has to pan out as a constantly good runner. I think that we will draft at least a power-RB in mid-rounds. Perhaps Stephan Taylor from Stanford...
[ Edited by communist on Sep 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM ]
Originally posted by Karma:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
We can't afford Haralson at 2.54M in 2013, plus 300K in bonuses. Right now only 3.5M under, with the cap credit from uncapped year, if we aren't using it now.

Guys like Haralson, Goodwin need to be cut or take pay cut to stay and save cap room. Justin Smith, David Akers and Donte Whitner make sense to redo and extend, and help keep Bowman.

So I don't expect Sopoaga and/or Goldson back. What's more important, Keeping Goldson, Sopoaga or Bowman? Bowman is real deal, Goldson is a bit overrated, and Sopoaga is older, and I don't think he will take much less than the 20M deal he got early in his career.

Moss looks like a keeper if he continues the play. Jacobs depends on how he plays.

RJF is easier to re-sign, same with Delanie. Gooden is easy sign, Grant might leave, Brock won't be back on a RFA tender of 1.26M.

Cap wise, I don't see us keeping everyone, and being tight against the cap, plus we need to pay the draft picks.

I love being able to count on your cap knowledge. You say we are 3.5 mil under the cap for next year. Is that taking a likely increase in the cap into consideration? They only increased the cap a small amount this year because of the lockout/ uncapped year. Does that mean we are likely headed for a bigger increase? That would seem to be the deciding factor for many of our FA priorities.

It includes the projected $121M cap, could be more, won't know till March 2013. But we can save easily 12M by cutting or redoing Haralson and Goodwin, extending J.Smith, Whitner and Akers.
Originally posted by BigYellowKahuna:
Originally posted by sfout:


Bowman is legit /discussion on that - I cant wait for the day we extend him and we dont have to worry about losing him.

ILB just scares me because while Grant was not a hot commodity as an RFA I have a feeling several teams will come calling with moderately priced deals now that a draft pick isn't attached to him. Gooden will be back unless we deem him surplus but I my nervousness over this position is kept in check with Michael Wilhoite on PS. I think he can definitely step in as a backup next season.

Niners will have a huge decision soon on if they can afford to extend Bowman or a) extend Larry Grant b) look for a replacement via draft or free agency. Bowman will not come cheap. I think they will opt for a cheaper option via the Patriot's model

we wont dump Bowman
I think you're right on point about our most critical needs. The draft is a long ways away and a lot of things can change by then, but Safety, D-line and TE are probably our 3 primary needs.

I will disagree with you slightly and say that I think DE is a bigger need than NT. We have a lot of depth on the line and I think if we aren't able to bring back Sopoaga, RJF and Ian Williams are capable of replacing him. Justin Smith is one of the best players on our team and there just isn't anybody on our roster who could replace his production. We need to bring in a young and raw but extremely talented DE to come in and learn behind Smith for a year or two. As much as I like Tukuafu, RJF and Dobbs, they just are not capable of replacing his production. It takes a special breed.

After those 3 needs, the rest of the draft can be spent building depth and increasing competition.

I would say OLB/Rush DE, Offensive Tackle, Cornerback, ILB (in the likely case that Grant leaves), Short-yardage RB, WR, and maybe even a 2nd Safety are all positions where some added depth might be needed and I could see us going after these positions in the mid to late rounds.