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Draft Grades: Kiper and others

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
I was watching both NFL-N and ESPN at first, but soon saw NFL-N had much better coverage. They stayed on the picks, whereas ESPN wandered too far off it. On day 3 they were constantly behind and gave only lip service to the picks. Mayock's the best analyst I've seen...having played the game, he has a very good understanding of players and how to evaluate them, plus how they'll fit into the teams that drafted them.

My take is both Jenkins and James bring speed and explosiveness to a team that desperately needed it. Don't underestimate them or Looney, who had higher round abilities, but slid some due to a broken foot. He's healthy now and IMHO will win the RG position. He's a road-grader...and they'll coach him up in pass protection. The competion between he and Kilgore should be cool to watch. Fleming's a ST'er at first, but Leavitt will coach him up to be a solid b/u. Robinson was an outright steal in 6th rd...he'll buddy up w/Whitner, you can bank on it. Both guys have heard "you're too small" and TR will use that as motivation to prove he can do the job. Slowey was a div II standout...and will likely understudy Goodwin to be our C of the future. Lastly, Cam Johnson has all kinds of ability..and could prove to be the biggest steal of the entire draft. Again, he'll be coached up by Leavitt, who did a terrific job with our LB's last season. Mayock had him at #50 on his top 100 list.

I think both channels have there pros and cons. Only problem with NFN is that i don't like when they have 4/5 guys up there. I'd rather just have Rich Maycok and one other guy. Not sure why Irvin, and Deion are part of the 1st day coverage. ESPN has finally gotten right by only having 3 guys. But I realized that I just can't take much of Chris Berman anymore. I like Mel but I'm not really all that crazy about Gruden who says the same thing about every prospect. I think they need to let Trey Wingo or somebody new take over for Berman. I think NFLN work were quicker to break down and analyze guys but ESPN graphics and highlight packages were much better. Where as ESPN were talking big picture topics with certain teams then would come back and breakdown the last several picks. So it's all about preference, I think both did a good job this year while last year they both sucked.
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Walters . . .

30. A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois: Matt Millen Casual Kielbasa Sex Grade
This is bizarre. Did the 49ers know that Coby Fleener, Cordy Glenn and Stephen Hill were still on the board, or were they thrown off because the first round was going by so quickly? I don't get it. This is a huge reach. Here's where A.J. Jenkins ranked on the major big boards: 67, 76, 57, 73 and 70. Yeesh.

http://walterfootball.com/offseason2012sf.php?id=21


Yeesh is right . . . basing an opinion on "major" big boards? Just wow!




Also . . . 49ers - Day One Losers

After Seattle, the second-most shocking pick was the huge reach of Jenkins going to the 49ers. One NFL coach told WalterFootball.com on a phone call during the draft that his team had Jenkins going in the third round. Jenkins is a good speed receiver, but a bigger speed receiver in Stephen Hill was available. San Francisco also could have addressed its offensive line with a player like Cordy Glenn.


Jenkins had a very productive senior season. He caught 90 passes for 1,276 yards and eight touchdowns. Jenkins hauled in 56 passes for 746 yards and seven touchdowns as a junior in 2010. The 6-foot, 190-pounder has the speed to produce some big plays downfield, like he did for Illinois, but he was a big reach in the first round.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2012winnerslosers.php

That site is run by a bunch of idiots, I lost all respect for that website when they said we had crap at S. Even before that. They no nothing about value and how to evaluate a player.
We heard the same thing last year about Aldon and Culliver. Let's give the guy a couple years before we knock the pick.
Originally posted by jreff22:
If we take a step back and it looks like Chilo is back out there it will be a failure. Nothing works if Alex is on his back and that starts upfront. The FA additions on O will be a bigger factor scoring IMO. Not a knock on Jenkins but I hope Moss really shows up because he could be dangerous. Not getting DeCastro, passing on Konz, Glenn, Jones etc is the biggest risk IMO. If the position is "fixed" then the draft goes up another grade for me. If we are back drafting more OL next year we have a problem.
I understand your point, but somewhat disagree. It seems like you're losing sight of the forest by focusing too much on a single tree.

The problem last year was that Rachal had the physical tools and attitude, but couldn't seem to get all the assignments, and Snyder could get all the assignments but just didn't have all the physical tools and attitude. And neither of them could pass protect for 4 or 5 seconds at a time.

Kilgore has had a year to work in the weight room and gain the strength needed. He has the attitude. Can he get all the assignments down and develop the chemistry needed with the other OL? Apparently Hargaugh thinks so, or they wouldn't have let Snyder go.

If not, Looney appears to have all the physical abilities, and the attitude (78 knockdowns as a Senior) needed. Plus he's smart enough to get all the assignments.

Beyond that, and despite the well known proposition that "it all starts up front," the fact is that no OL can hold off a pass rush forever--or consistently for 4 or 5 seconds at a time. Getting not one but two speedy playmakers is going to allow Smith to get rid of the ball faster and eliminate some of the "coverage sacks" we've given up in the past because our playmakers have not had sufficient speed to get separation and get open.

Just like a good pass rush can make a secondary look better on defense, a playmaker's ability to get open and allow the QB to get rid of the ball more quickly on offense can make the OL look better as well. Really just the other side of the same coin..

So it's my belief that Baalke did address the OL need (and not just the RG need)--in the first and second rounds--by drafting two speedy playmakers who are gonna make the OL and the QB look a whole lot better.

That's why this draft was good, if not great. Baalke and Harbaugh addressed the single biggest, most glaring need, the need for speed on offense, not just the need for a RG.
[ Edited by oldninerdude on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:19 PM ]
Wow Jenkins is a HOF if Millin thinks the pick is stupid his record was amazing as Detroit's GM.
d
Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
Wow Jenkins is a HOF if Millin thinks the pick is stupid his record was amazing as Detroit's GM.

Thought the exact same thing.....
How do you grade a draft? Solely on how many make a pro bowl, lead in stats, just starts? Look at the Giants and Packers. Their players contribute as a team with clutch plays. The defense of the pack ain't great and they payed for it, but the year before they contributed enough, so their picks were good.

I don't expect our picks to lead in stats or start, but contribute when needed. First downs here and there. TDs here and there. Help loosen up the opps D. Score more TDs instead of FG. Like when Walsh traded back so many times and got guys like f*gan, roberts, and others.
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
d
Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
Wow Jenkins is a HOF if Millin thinks the pick is stupid his record was amazing as Detroit's GM.

Thought the exact same thing.....
He does have a history of drafting WR in the 1st, lol
the problem with "experts" draft grades is they base it on where someone was drafted, who was still available, and the immediate need it fills. where someone was drafted only matters during the draft and contract negotiation, no where else. it doesnt matter who else we could have got. everyone could have got tom brady. we do not have many if any immediate needs depending on how you feel our current roster is at RG so we just picked up pieces that will compliment what we have very well. good draft.

by the way anyone take notice how many mock drafts are done by these experts and how so wrong they usually are?
Originally posted by TalkinBoutWILLIS:
the problem with "experts" draft grades is they base it on where someone was drafted, who was still available, and the immediate need it fills. where someone was drafted only matters during the draft and contract negotiation, no where else. it doesnt matter who else we could have got. everyone could have got tom brady. we do not have many if any immediate needs depending on how you feel our current roster is at RG so we just picked up pieces that will compliment what we have very well. good draft.

by the way anyone take notice how many mock drafts are done by these experts and how so wrong they usually are?

true but most experts say themselves they really don't like doing them. they just do them b/c fans love them and their bosses make them do it. Kiper says he'd just rather put up a big board and that's it but the powers that be force him and Mcshay to put out mocks. I think mocks are irrelevant in regards of gauging experts. It's more about did the guys they assigned to a specific round based on their talent, actually get drafted in those rounds. If a guy has 8 guys as 2nd round talent yet they are drafted in the 1st round then something is off. Nobody doing a mock can predict trades or what Seattle will do.
Originally posted by Kaz9er:
Originally posted by D-Money:
I think that's the problem. Hardballke became enamored with Mike Wallace when we faced the Steelers this year and were so ready to get him in FA until he wanted insane money. Instead they drafted someone who is very similar. That being said I hope we can use him like the steelers use Wallace. Bubble screens, underneath slants, and deep posts. The question now becomes can Smith get him the ball. I really think Kaepernick will be our Starting qb this year at some point.

I agree for the most part except for Colin starting. If that happens then we are probalbly losing games.

Yes. We signed Josh Johnson because he knows Harbaugh's system and is more ready right now to fill in if Smith struggles or is injured. Kaep and Tolzien will compete for the 3rd QB spot but we may keep four.
Excellent draft. I for one was extremely opposed to the thought of using another first round pick on an interior lineman. On a team with good coaching, like ours, you should be able to acquire a functional NFL guard in the drag without using a 1st round. 1st round caliber playmakers is exactly what we needed and we got 2 of them
I give Kiper a C, McShay a D and Mayock a B+.
Originally posted by lamontb:
true but most experts say themselves they really don't like doing them. they just do them b/c fans love them and their bosses make them do it. Kiper says he'd just rather put up a big board and that's it but the powers that be force him and Mcshay to put out mocks. I think mocks are irrelevant in regards of gauging experts. It's more about did the guys they assigned to a specific round based on their talent, actually get drafted in those rounds. If a guy has 8 guys as 2nd round talent yet they are drafted in the 1st round then something is off. Nobody doing a mock can predict trades or what Seattle will do.

And now they are going to be even more ridiculous and pointless because of all the trades that will be made in future drafts now that a rookie salary cap is in place. Not only will most o the picks be wrong, be the teams will be too. LOL
Originally posted by 9erred:
Originally posted by jreff22:
It was a weird draft. The play at OG will be a determining factor on how to grade this.


I disagree, the draft will be evaluated on if the Niners offense improves on gaining more yards, first downs, and TD's over field goals. CLEARLY the niners saw that the chance of repeating such a favorable turn over ratio, and stout defense is impossible. The offense needed to imrpove, they needed speed on the outside, a deep threat, a back who can line up like a WR (see sproles and woodhead).

The niners also have declared on defense they believe that getting to the passer is the way to go, speed and OLB's is the key rather than relying on CB's and DB's to cover for 4-5 seconds so you get coverage sacks.

If the Niners wanted to get a good draft grade, they could have traded their 1 and 2 to move up to get De Castro or stay put and got guard at 1st round pick. This drat also shows that Baalke and company have thrown out BPA drafting, this was drafting for what direction the team wants to move in the future.

This^^
They fixed there weak spot with speed an offensive upgradess for the now and future. I think next year you'll see us go more defensive. get solid youth fot the future of the d line