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Which mock gives the 49ers the most total value?

Which mock gives the 49ers the most total value?

Should you use your first draft pick for your greatest need? That is what is motivating recent mocks with us taking Kevin Zeitler at #30. But there is good depth at OG, so it is not required that we draft an OG in the first round, even though it may be the position of greatest need. While there is some fall-off in talent from round to round, the fall off at OG, is much less than say FS, QB, or OLB.

Using CBS DraftScout's 4/12 updated value chart, I have created 4 mock drafts with a guard taken in a different round. To make it more of an apples to apples comparison, I have also picked the same 4 positions: OG, DE, CB, WR for each option. Because of all the Coby Fleener, Stephen Hill love, I have left them out. This is also likely, since most of the recent mocks I have seen have both Fleener and Hill gone by pick #30.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

For comparison purposes, each mock is only 4 rounds, and the players taken remain constant when possible. All 4 mocks have a: OG, DE, WR, CB.

Please choose the mock which brings the most total value to the 49ers? Below are the overviews for the 4 OGs that are around our first 4 picks.

Kevin Zeitler:
A perfectionist, Zeitler expects more out of himself than anybody else possibly could in class, in the weight room and on the field. His anxious, nit-picking is noticed, and not always well-accepted, by classmates, teachers and teammates.

But it is opposing defenders who pay the price when the sum of his hard work pays off on the field. So, as expected, scouting reports show he does just about everything according to the book to his best ability - and he has plenty of ability. Zeitler added a significant amount of lean mass in his college career and used it well.

According the NFL Draft Report statistics he led college football with 142 knockdown blocks and had 33 blocks that resulted in touchdowns, obviously a major reason Wisconsin had a per-game average of 44.62 points and 467 total yards, including 237 on the ground.


Kelechi Osemele:
That's pronounced kah-LETCH-ee oh-sem-AH-lee, and pro scouts know it well. Osemele may be stronger than he is big, which is saying something. While some players use a strong base and others rely on a powerful upper body, Osemele has both.

He has incredible reach (35 1/4-inch arms and an 85 1/2-inch wingspan) and massive hands (10 3/8-inches) that make him hard to escape. He seems to enjoy using that strength most on run blocking, where he overwhelms most defenders. He is a bit more tentative as a pass blocker and must work on recognizing what is happening there.

A hard working student on and off the field, Osemele made the academic Honor Role three times and was selected All-Big 12 Conference first team in 2011. He played in 49 games and started 43 in a row despite missing most of one game last year with a severely sprained ankle.


James Brown:
Brown received attention from several SEC programs out of high school, but went the JUCO route enrolling at Southwest Mississippi Community College. After redshirting in 2007, he earned Second Team All-Mississippi Junior College performer in 2008 and was considered a three-star JUCO prospect, choosing to enroll at Troy. Brown earned a starting spot in 2009 as a sophomore and started every game at left tackle (13 starts). He started all 12 games at left tackle in 2010 as a junior, earning Second Team All-Sun Belt honors. Brown returned in 2011 as a senior and again started all 12 contests at left tackle, earning First Team All-Sun Belt honors.

Brown has a versatile skills set to line up at tackle or guard at the next level and there is a lot to love about his passionate football attitude if he can stay disciplined -- credits football with saving his life after growing up around crime. He has worked hard to lose bad weight (over 50 pounds), but needs to fill out his frame with positive pounds and get stronger for the next level.

Brown needs to work on his technique/footwork in order to stay coordinated through contact, but he has a high ceiling and bright football future if he puts in the time to reach his full potential -- developmental prospect with obvious upside who needs some work before he's thrown into NFL action, but the length, foot quickness and tools are there for him to be a full-time starter at the pro level.

Philip Blake:
Baylor supplied the National Football League with a first-round talent in Canadian native and junior college transfer Danny Watkins in April, as the Philadelphia Eagles selected the two-year starting left tackle with the 23rd overall selection. Although Blake may not hear his name picked in the first round in April 2012, his game is strong and his journey is quite similar to Watkins'.

Blake graduated from a secondary school Ontario in 2005, then played two years at Champlain Regional College before earning second-team all-conference honors at Tyler Junior College in 2008. Despite his lack of height, Baylor coaches started him at right tackle (making him Watkins' bookend) in 2009 before moving him to center, his natural NFL position as a junior. He was named honorable-mention All-Big 12 by league coaches and media after the 2010 season.

Since the then-26 year-old Watkins was selected in the first round, it's likely teams won't be worried about Blake's turning 26 during the 2011 season. Scouts will also like the fact he has six years of collegiate football experience before heading to the next level. If an NFL offensive line coach like's Blake's length, strength, and stocky build in the pivot, and feels he can work on Blake's hand placement and consistency sustaining his blocks, his team may select him in the top 100 overall selections.
Trade down and get another 2nd and 3rd pick.
2. OG K. Zeitler
2. DE J. Crick
3. TE O.Charles
3. WR M. Jones
why do we need reyes

i am not a fan of using a 1st round pick on a player who wont see the field for years
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
why do we need reyes

i am not a fan of using a 1st round pick on a player who wont see the field for years

Because Justin Smith and Ray McDonald played over 85% of our defensive snaps last year. We are one hamstring or ACL tear away from losing 1/3 of a very talented defensive line. Most of our backups were un-drafted FAs, or were taken on the last day, Ricky Jean Francios

Most teams rotate in players to keep their defenses fresh. Reyes would get playing time in the rotation in year one, and could potentially extend the career of Justin Smith..

And all indications are that he will be a good one.
Originally posted by mebemused:
Because Justin Smith and Ray McDonald played over 85% of our defensive snaps last year. We are one hamstring or ACL tear away from losing 1/3 of a very talented defensive line. Most of our backups were un-drafted FAs, or were taken on the last day, Ricky Jean Francios

Most teams rotate in players to keep their defenses fresh. Reyes would get playing time in the rotation in year one, and could potentially extend the career of Justin Smith..

And all indications are that he will be a good one.

We already have toakafu Dobbs and rid for rotation but thaat injury thing could be said about anything if we lose manningham or crabs we again have a crappy we core
If we lose Vernon our te becomes s**ty

Is rather take a guy in the first who were going to use on a regular basis and take our rotational guys later
[ Edited by 49ersalldaway126 on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:40 AM ]
Than you will always be drafting for need in the first, not BPA.
Is Reyes the BPA at #30? Maybe. Maybe not. Some would argue it could be Doug Martin, Coby Fleener, Kevin Zeitler, Stephen Hill etc. It may become a moot point...other teams will covet his talents, for example, NE, among others. So, would Baalke be willing to trade up to get Reyes? Remains to be seen...of those 5 guys, it'd seem like Zeitler would have the best chance to start this year, although Fleener would get a lot of PT, no doubt. All would see the field...so, I guess it comes down to what Baalke/Harbaugh expect from their #1 pick.
I don't understand all this linemen hype. Quality linemen can be found in all rounds why waste a 1st rd pick. Wev used 1st rd picks on O linemen enough te past years an seen what that does for a team, our line didn't start playin good until after this season started, years after those players were drafted. U guys wanna waste another 1st rd to give the line even more years to start workin? No we can draft depth in any round cuz that's what we need is depth, we don't need a starter we had 3 guys behind Snyder as backups last year that r all back. The team overall needs offensive playmakers most out of every position so unless they plan on using most of our picks for that their probly gonna look for the best offensive playmaker available at our pick.
Originally posted by stefano89:
I don't understand all this linemen hype. Quality linemen can be found in all rounds why waste a 1st rd pick. Wev used 1st rd picks on O linemen enough te past years an seen what that does for a team, our line didn't start playin good until after this season started, years after those players were drafted. U guys wanna waste another 1st rd to give the line even more years to start workin? No we can draft depth in any round cuz that's what we need is depth, we don't need a starter we had 3 guys behind Snyder as backups last year that r all back. The team overall needs offensive playmakers most out of every position so unless they plan on using most of our picks for that their probly gonna look for the best offensive playmaker available at our pick.


I agree one million percent. Coach Walsh always said take the skill guys high in the draft. The ONLY skilll guy on OL is the LT, the rest can be had later in the draft. Look at the past super bowl champions, NONE of them have as many high round draft picks on the OL. Remember about 20 years ago, the Saints had all high draft picks on the OL, yet they stunk it up. Skill positions make teams better. I have a friend who is a Minnesota fan, he said Steve Hutchinson was a FA bust until Adrian Peterson came in.

Red zone targets WR/TE
Pass rush
Safety
That is what will push this team over the top.
History proves that drafting a Dline late in the first does not give us good results. Remember Reggie McGrew and Blamer.
Originally posted by susweel:
History proves that drafting a Dline late in the first does not give us good results. Remember Reggie McGrew and Blamer.

Won't be the pressure to start right away, and they'll be training under the best.

Though I'd rather have Crick than Reyes, I'd be happy with either.
Originally posted by 9erred:
I agree one million percent. Coach Walsh always said take the skill guys high in the draft. The ONLY skilll guy on OL is the LT, the rest can be had later in the draft. Look at the past super bowl champions, NONE of them have as many high round draft picks on the OL. Remember about 20 years ago, the Saints had all high draft picks on the OL, yet they stunk it up. Skill positions make teams better. I have a friend who is a Minnesota fan, he said Steve Hutchinson was a FA bust until Adrian Peterson came in.

Red zone targets WR/TE
Pass rush
Safety
That is what will push this team over the top.

Walsh could do that because he had Bob McKitrick as an O-line coach, and the rules in the 80s allowed linemen to chop block below the knees. So the ideal lineman for McKitrick was smaller and agile, which could always be had in the later rounds of the draft. With the change in the rules, those days are gone. McKitrick was quite a coach!

Having said that, I agree with you that starting guards can be found in later rounds.
Trumaine Johnson is going to have to transition to safety, so I don't see very good second round value. The footwork simply is not there.
In my latest draft projections, I have Niners selecting David Wilson, Brandon Brooks, and Rishard Matthews.
Zeitler is a reach at 30