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Draft day maneuvering (trades)

Draft day maneuvering (trades)

I'm really hoping to see some serious movement during the draft. The Niners need depth, but they also need talent. I don't see a lot of value in the 5, 6, and 7th round. I think the Niners should group as many picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th as possible. Here's one type of scenario that I'm envisioning.

TRADE #1
San Francisco trades:
1/30: 620
4/125: 47
Total pts = 667

Kansas City trades:
2/44: 460
3/74: 220
Total pts: 680

TRADE #2
San Fran Trades:
5/165 = 25.4
6/199 = 11.8
total pts: 37.2

Minnesota Trades:
5/137 = 37
total pts = 37

49ers total picks
I reviewed big boards of OTC, Maddog, and Mike Mayock. I tried to project picks +/- 5-10 picks up or down.

2/44
OTC big board: Courtney Upshaw, Kevin Zeitler, Devon Still, Josh Robinson, Alameda Ta'amu
Maddog big board: Kevin Zeitler, Josh Robinson, Vinny Curry, Derek Wolfe
Mayock: Amini Silatolu (37), Peter Konz(40), Trumaine Johnson, Josh Robinson, ,

2/61
OTC big board: Brandon Brooks, Bruce Irving, Trumaine Johnson,
MD big board: Brandon Brooks, AJ Jenkins, Bruce Irving, Alameda Ta'Amu
Mayock: Ruben Randle, Alameda Ta'amu,

3/74
OTC big board: Marvin Jones, Derek Wolfe, Isiah Pead
MD big board: Alfonzo Dennard, Chris Polk, Casey Hayward,
Mayock: Brandon Brooks, Alfonzo Dennard, Isiah Pead

3/92
OTC big board: Robert Turbin, Greg Childs, Phillip Baker, Tommy Streeter
MD big board: Keenan Robinson, Demario Davis, Marvin Jones, Phillip Baker, Greg Childs
Mayock: Mohamed Sanu, Chris Polk, Robert Turbin

5/138
OTC big board: Aaron Henry, Chase Minnifield, Josh Norman,
MD big board: Kyle Wilber, Trevor Guyton, TJ Graham, Tim Fugger, Juron Criner, Ron Brooks

7/237
OTC big board: Tim Fuggar (198)
no trading down this year

that being said only players worth trading up for in 1st roundi s floyd and decastro

otherwise stay put at 30 take BPA (jenkins at CB or btwn WR and CB)

trade up in 2nd possibly pick up a G (zeiter or amini) or WR (wright randle alshon jeffery)
I was liking the trade down scenario, but when i really thought about it unless we are getting some pick next year i don't think it would make any since to trade down. Only because where our roster is at we really need some quality over quantity. I believe trading up at some point in the draft would be our best option. Alot of picks this year wouldn't make any since imo because most of them probably wouldn't make the team.
Originally posted by sfout:
2010: Dixon and Iupati were also acquired via trades at some point in the season or previous drafts

49ers receive: » Third-round pick (No. 91):Navorro Bowman » Sixth-round pick (No. 173):Anthony Dixon » 2011 fourth-round pick

Chargers receive: » Third-round pick (No. 79):Donald Butler
-
Broncos receive: » First-round pick (No. 13):Traded to Eagles» Fourth-round pick (No. 113):Traded to Patriots

49ers receive: » First-round pick (No. 11):Anthony Davis
-
Dolphins receive: » Fifth-round pick (No. 145):Nolan Carroll

49ers receive: » Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr.
-
2011: 3 actual draft day trades but every pick besides Aldon was acquired via trade from either previous drafts or this past season.
Niners receive:

» Fifth-round pick (No. 163):Daniel Kilgore

Packers receive: » Sixth-round pick (No. 174): Traded to Dolphins» Seventh-round pick (No. 231): Traded to Dolphins
-
Jaguars receive: » Third-round pick (No. 76):William Rackley

49ers receive: » Third-round pick (No. 80):Chris Culliver » Sixth-round pick (No. 182):Ronald Johnson
-
» Second-round pick (No. 36):Colin Kaepernick

Broncos receive: » Second-round pick (No. 45):Rahim Moore » Fourth-round pick (No. 108):Quinton Carter » Fifth-round pick (No. 141): Traded to Packers
-

thats the full list of actual draft day trades Baalke has made in the past 2 years. I think he has definitely shown his ability to maneuver.

That 2011 4th we got from SD ended up being Kendal Hunter, which was a good trade. I don't get why people complain about this. Aldon was worth the pick, who is to say he would of been their 3 picks later, and who would of traded up? And for whom?
The only player I really see us trading up for is if DeCastro somehow slips. Some mocks have him going in the late teens and I think if he were to fall that far or further we may take a look at that. I don't put huge stock in the Stanford connection, but as the top G who can also play C, he could start at RG (backing up C) until Goodwin retires in a couple years, then pop over to C.
Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
I think Baalke is decisive. If he wants a certain player he'll go after the pick BUT each pick has a value that he won't go beyond.

He is a shrewd operator. It depends on who falls to us at #30.

If he moves up I don't see in being higher than #20.

Just a guess on my part but I think we stand pat.
I agree, i think he will also trade up, he's show he has the balls too before.
Originally posted by Butter:
I'm really hoping to see some serious movement during the draft. The Niners need depth, but they also need talent. I don't see a lot of value in the 5, 6, and 7th round. I think the Niners should group as many picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th as possible. Here's one type of scenario that I'm envisioning.

TRADE #1
San Francisco trades:
1/30: 620
4/125: 47
Total pts = 667

Kansas City trades:
2/44: 460
3/74: 220
Total pts: 680

TRADE #2
San Fran Trades:
5/165 = 25.4
6/199 = 11.8
total pts: 37.2

Minnesota Trades:
5/137 = 37
total pts = 37

49ers total picks
I reviewed big boards of OTC, Maddog, and Mike Mayock. I tried to project picks +/- 5-10 picks up or down.

2/44
OTC big board: Courtney Upshaw, Kevin Zeitler, Devon Still, Josh Robinson, Alameda Ta'amu
Maddog big board: Kevin Zeitler, Josh Robinson, Vinny Curry, Derek Wolfe
Mayock: Amini Silatolu (37), Peter Konz(40), Trumaine Johnson, Josh Robinson, ,

2/61
OTC big board: Brandon Brooks, Bruce Irving, Trumaine Johnson,
MD big board: Brandon Brooks, AJ Jenkins, Bruce Irving, Alameda Ta'Amu
Mayock: Ruben Randle, Alameda Ta'amu,

3/74
OTC big board: Marvin Jones, Derek Wolfe, Isiah Pead
MD big board: Alfonzo Dennard, Chris Polk, Casey Hayward,
Mayock: Brandon Brooks, Alfonzo Dennard, Isiah Pead

3/92
OTC big board: Robert Turbin, Greg Childs, Phillip Baker, Tommy Streeter
MD big board: Keenan Robinson, Demario Davis, Marvin Jones, Phillip Baker, Greg Childs
Mayock: Mohamed Sanu, Chris Polk, Robert Turbin

5/138
OTC big board: Aaron Henry, Chase Minnifield, Josh Norman,
MD big board: Kyle Wilber, Trevor Guyton, TJ Graham, Tim Fugger, Juron Criner, Ron Brooks

7/237
OTC big board: Tim Fuggar (198)

Nice breakdown, Butter. 6 picks and a lot of good prospects in the 2nd and 3rd round for the bulk of their picks.
So far, Balke's draft day manuvering leaves a lot to be desired.

Trent Baalke doesn't think so. He fielded a trade request by the Minnesota Vikings that presumably would have given the 49ers Minnesota's second-round pick (35th overall) as well as at least one other pick. The 49ers knew the Vikings wanted Harrison Smith, the Notre Dame safety they ended up taking at pick No. 29, so they only would have had to sweat out four more picks.
With Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Coby Fleener and others still on the board, wouldn't Jenkins still have been available at pick No. 35? Baalke didn't want to risk it. "When I used to work for coach (Bill) Parcells and Dick Hailey, Dick's mentality and coach's mentality was, if you like a player, take them," Baalke said. "If you like them at 30, what's the difference if you take him at 30 or 33 or 34? If you like the player, take them because if you don't take them and you trade back, you may not like the outcome."
Baalke pointed to last year's first-round pick, Aldon Smith, who also was a surprise. The 49ers picked Smith at No. 7, and Baalke said if the team had traded down just two spots, Smith wouldn't have been there. The Titans and Cowboys were picking after the 49ers that year.
"That sticks in your mind when you're sitting in the chair that I sit in," Baalke. "If you like the player, take him."
Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/04/did-49ers-jump-the-gun-on-jenkins-baalke-doesnt-think-so.html#storylink=cpy

I'm afraid that Jenkins might teach Balke another lesson. Balke does pull a lot of trades, but its mostly UP. He needs to have some patience.
  • sfout
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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7862017/2012-nfl-draft-cleveland-browns-talk-colt-mccoy-trade-brandon-weeden-pick

Cleveland considering trading McCoy.
Originally posted by sfout:
you do realize that every single pick from last years class besides Aldon was acquired VIA a trade at some point right? and 4 picks from 2010 were acquired through trades as well...I think he has already shown he can maneuver on draft day.

They want the experts to talk about us the same way they talk about Bill Belichek or some of those other wheelers and dealers that "manipulate the draft board" even though none of those teams had a class that matched ours in 2011. They want to be entertained by the manuevering.

I simply want Baalke to continue to do what he has been doing- drafting quality guys all over the draft and keeping this team stocked with talent.
Originally posted by Butter:
So far, Balke's draft day manuvering leaves a lot to be desired.

Trent Baalke doesn't think so. He fielded a trade request by the Minnesota Vikings that presumably would have given the 49ers Minnesota's second-round pick (35th overall) as well as at least one other pick. The 49ers knew the Vikings wanted Harrison Smith, the Notre Dame safety they ended up taking at pick No. 29, so they only would have had to sweat out four more picks.
With Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Coby Fleener and others still on the board, wouldn't Jenkins still have been available at pick No. 35? Baalke didn't want to risk it. "When I used to work for coach (Bill) Parcells and Dick Hailey, Dick's mentality and coach's mentality was, if you like a player, take them," Baalke said. "If you like them at 30, what's the difference if you take him at 30 or 33 or 34? If you like the player, take them because if you don't take them and you trade back, you may not like the outcome."
Baalke pointed to last year's first-round pick, Aldon Smith, who also was a surprise. The 49ers picked Smith at No. 7, and Baalke said if the team had traded down just two spots, Smith wouldn't have been there. The Titans and Cowboys were picking after the 49ers that year.
"That sticks in your mind when you're sitting in the chair that I sit in," Baalke. "If you like the player, take him."
Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/04/did-49ers-jump-the-gun-on-jenkins-baalke-doesnt-think-so.html#storylink=cpy

I'm afraid that Jenkins might teach Balke another lesson. Balke does pull a lot of trades, but its mostly UP. He needs to have some patience.

What lesson? Is this like last year when everyone thought we could of traded back 5 spots and still got Aldon or another player? You don't risk losing the player you love, STL was supposedly gonna take him at 33. Some had Jenkins in the 33-45 range, so 30 isn't really a big reach, especially when teams were likely looking at him in early 2nd rd.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by Butter:
So far, Balke's draft day manuvering leaves a lot to be desired.

Trent Baalke doesn't think so. He fielded a trade request by the Minnesota Vikings that presumably would have given the 49ers Minnesota's second-round pick (35th overall) as well as at least one other pick. The 49ers knew the Vikings wanted Harrison Smith, the Notre Dame safety they ended up taking at pick No. 29, so they only would have had to sweat out four more picks.
With Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Coby Fleener and others still on the board, wouldn't Jenkins still have been available at pick No. 35? Baalke didn't want to risk it. "When I used to work for coach (Bill) Parcells and Dick Hailey, Dick's mentality and coach's mentality was, if you like a player, take them," Baalke said. "If you like them at 30, what's the difference if you take him at 30 or 33 or 34? If you like the player, take them because if you don't take them and you trade back, you may not like the outcome."
Baalke pointed to last year's first-round pick, Aldon Smith, who also was a surprise. The 49ers picked Smith at No. 7, and Baalke said if the team had traded down just two spots, Smith wouldn't have been there. The Titans and Cowboys were picking after the 49ers that year.
"That sticks in your mind when you're sitting in the chair that I sit in," Baalke. "If you like the player, take him."
Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/04/did-49ers-jump-the-gun-on-jenkins-baalke-doesnt-think-so.html#storylink=cpy

I'm afraid that Jenkins might teach Balke another lesson. Balke does pull a lot of trades, but its mostly UP. He needs to have some patience.

What lesson? Is this like last year when everyone thought we could of traded back 5 spots and still got Aldon or another player? You don't risk losing the player you love, STL was supposedly gonna take him at 33. Some had Jenkins in the 33-45 range, so 30 isn't really a big reach, especially when teams were likely looking at him in early 2nd rd.

I'm not fixated specifically on Jenkins. Maybe he turns into the next Jerry Rice/Issac Bruce...however. What I'm concerned with is Balke's tunnel vision. And before anyone blasts me, I think he's doing a hell of a job as GM. But the draft is about two things in my opinion; 1) Talent, 2) Value.

The only thing better than getting a really talented player is getting him at a lower draft pick. I don't buy the smoke that AJ Jenkins was rated below Blackmon. Maybe its true, or maybe it was misdirection. When Davis was drafted, there was a "rumor" that someone wanted to draft him, so they traded up. When Aldon was drafted, there was a "rumor" that he might not fall. When Jenkins was drafted, there was a "rumor" that the Rams wanted him at 33 (almost a round higher than conventional wisdom).

Honestly, if you were a rival GM, and you saw a blue chip player falling on the boards, and you thought you could throw the Niners off by floating a smoke screen, what would you do with that pattern? It's not rocket science. The Niners are just making themselves susceptible to smoke screens in my opinion. So what if Jenkins had been drafted at 33. There are other players on their draft board. Draft Hill, or Randle, or what till the 2nd or third round and draft one of the other players. Jenkins might turn out to be an All-Pro, but percentages suggest that he isn't the only talented player in the draft.

Final thought, when defenses know that a QB zero's in on one WR, it makes them vulnerable. I love Balke, and I think the Niners are BLESSED to have him, but he's got to learn how to scan the field a bit IMHO.
Originally posted by Butter:
I'm not fixated specifically on Jenkins. Maybe he turns into the next Jerry Rice/Issac Bruce...however. What I'm concerned with is Balke's tunnel vision. And before anyone blasts me, I think he's doing a hell of a job as GM. But the draft is about two things in my opinion; 1) Talent, 2) Value.

The only thing better than getting a really talented player is getting him at a lower draft pick. I don't buy the smoke that AJ Jenkins was rated below Blackmon. Maybe its true, or maybe it was misdirection. When Davis was drafted, there was a "rumor" that someone wanted to draft him, so they traded up. When Aldon was drafted, there was a "rumor" that he might not fall. When Jenkins was drafted, there was a "rumor" that the Rams wanted him at 33 (almost a round higher than conventional wisdom).

Honestly, if you were a rival GM, and you saw a blue chip player falling on the boards, and you thought you could throw the Niners off by floating a smoke screen, what would you do with that pattern? It's not rocket science. The Niners are just making themselves susceptible to smoke screens in my opinion. So what if Jenkins had been drafted at 33. There are other players on their draft board. Draft Hill, or Randle, or what till the 2nd or third round and draft one of the other players. Jenkins might turn out to be an All-Pro, but percentages suggest that he isn't the only talented player in the draft.

Final thought, when defenses know that a QB zero's in on one WR, it makes them vulnerable. I love Balke, and I think the Niners are BLESSED to have him, but he's got to learn how to scan the field a bit IMHO.

Yes, but when Jenkins is the highest rated player, why take a chance and lose him, just take him, even if fans and media think it's a reach. Owners/Teams don't draft for PR or Fans, they draft to win.
Originally posted by Butter:
I'm not fixated specifically on Jenkins. Maybe he turns into the next Jerry Rice/Issac Bruce...however. What I'm concerned with is Balke's tunnel vision. And before anyone blasts me, I think he's doing a hell of a job as GM. But the draft is about two things in my opinion; 1) Talent, 2) Value.

The only thing better than getting a really talented player is getting him at a lower draft pick. I don't buy the smoke that AJ Jenkins was rated below Blackmon. Maybe its true, or maybe it was misdirection. When Davis was drafted, there was a "rumor" that someone wanted to draft him, so they traded up. When Aldon was drafted, there was a "rumor" that he might not fall. When Jenkins was drafted, there was a "rumor" that the Rams wanted him at 33 (almost a round higher than conventional wisdom).

Honestly, if you were a rival GM, and you saw a blue chip player falling on the boards, and you thought you could throw the Niners off by floating a smoke screen, what would you do with that pattern? It's not rocket science. The Niners are just making themselves susceptible to smoke screens in my opinion. So what if Jenkins had been drafted at 33. There are other players on their draft board. Draft Hill, or Randle, or what till the 2nd or third round and draft one of the other players. Jenkins might turn out to be an All-Pro, but percentages suggest that he isn't the only talented player in the draft.

Final thought, when defenses know that a QB zero's in on one WR, it makes them vulnerable. I love Balke, and I think the Niners are BLESSED to have him, but he's got to learn how to scan the field a bit IMHO.

Well said. Balke is a great talent scout, but not sure if he's a good trader. Of the two, I'd rather have the great talent scout, so it's good we have Balke. However, just like they want their players to improve, Balke needs to learn to "game the draft" better. The great teams usually are able to maximize the value by trading up or down as needed. Sometimes you will lose a trade, but Balke needs to take some risk and make trades with a high "risk/reward" ratio.
Check out the NFL.com draft trade tracker. Baalke is kicking the hell out of the draft, and will be ready to slay fools next year.