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Draft day maneuvering (trades)

Draft day maneuvering (trades)

Balke has proven that he can find good players in the draft. The next step that I'd like to see is his ability to maneuver on draft day. In the Bill Walsh era, the Niners worked the draft board like a speed bag several times. In my opinion, the draft is about two different things; 1) talent, 2) good value. A good example of value is Sebastian Janikowski. His a talented kicker, but was he worth a 1st round draft pick. Talent, but poor value.

Anthony Davis looks like he might turn out to be a good player, but the Niners jumped up to get him. It's impossible to say, but I think that was unnecessary and probably not great value. Next year, Aldon Smith was a out of the blue, but turned out to be a valuable player. Could the Niners have traded down and still got him? Great player, safe pick, best possible value?

Part of the reason I always considered Walsh to be such a genius is because he could see value (Jerry Rice) and get good value.

What should the Niners do with their pick this year?
If you have a player on your board that you want, you don't get cute and try to trade down and still get him. You get your guy with conviction and screw what everyone else thinks. This is what Baalke does.

So, I think Baalke has a few players in mind that he would like to draft. And just like he has a value for FA's and wont overspend, he has a value for the players in the draft and will only spend what he thinks they are worth. If a player falls and he can make a trade that fits his value, he will make it happen. Baalke will not pull a Ditka and give away all of his draft picks for a single player.
Originally posted by DynastyPart2:
If you have a player on your board that you want, you don't get cute and try to trade down and still get him. You get your guy with conviction and screw what everyone else thinks. This is what Baalke does.

So, I think Baalke has a few players in mind that he would like to draft. And just like he has a value for FA's and wont overspend, he has a value for the players in the draft and will only spend what he thinks they are worth. If a player falls and he can make a trade that fits his value, he will make it happen. Baalke will not pull a Ditka and give away all of his draft picks for a single player.

Its a basic drafting philosophy, make the safe pick or roll the dice and try to "get cute" and get them later with extra value. Walsh didn't always move down, sometimes he moved up too. I referenced the Jerry Rice pick when the Niners moved up to get the player they wanted. But what's wrong with moving down to get a player that a GM feels is undervalued if you think you can get him later. Aldon Smith is great. Aldon Smith plus and extra 3rd round pick is genius.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by Butter:
Balke has proven that he can find good players in the draft. The next step that I'd like to see is his ability to maneuver on draft day. In the Bill Walsh era, the Niners worked the draft board like a speed bag several times. In my opinion, the draft is about two different things; 1) talent, 2) good value. A good example of value is Sebastian Janikowski. His a talented kicker, but was he worth a 1st round draft pick. Talent, but poor value.

Anthony Davis looks like he might turn out to be a good player, but the Niners jumped up to get him. It's impossible to say, but I think that was unnecessary and probably not great value. Next year, Aldon Smith was a out of the blue, but turned out to be a valuable player. Could the Niners have traded down and still got him? Great player, safe pick, best possible value?

Part of the reason I always considered Walsh to be such a genius is because he could see value (Jerry Rice) and get good value.

What should the Niners do with their pick this year?

you do realize that every single pick from last years class besides Aldon was acquired VIA a trade at some point right? and 4 picks from 2010 were acquired through trades as well...I think he has already shown he can maneuver on draft day.
[ Edited by sfout on Mar 30, 2012 at 7:19 PM ]
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by Butter:
Balke has proven that he can find good players in the draft. The next step that I'd like to see is his ability to maneuver on draft day. In the Bill Walsh era, the Niners worked the draft board like a speed bag several times. In my opinion, the draft is about two different things; 1) talent, 2) good value. A good example of value is Sebastian Janikowski. His a talented kicker, but was he worth a 1st round draft pick. Talent, but poor value.

Anthony Davis looks like he might turn out to be a good player, but the Niners jumped up to get him. It's impossible to say, but I think that was unnecessary and probably not great value. Next year, Aldon Smith was a out of the blue, but turned out to be a valuable player. Could the Niners have traded down and still got him? Great player, safe pick, best possible value?

Part of the reason I always considered Walsh to be such a genius is because he could see value (Jerry Rice) and get good value.

What should the Niners do with their pick this year?

you do realize that every single pick from last years class besides Aldon was acquired VIA a trade at some point right? and 4 picks from 2010 were acquired through trades as well...I think he has already shown he can maneuver on draft day.

Oh, Snap!
I agree with trading up or staying put in the first and trading up in the second and or 3rd. The roster is pretty full and when teams are in these situations they look for complementary players who can step in and fill immediate needs. Not projects like we went after in years past. Green Bay has had success with a more means more philosophy in which the think they can get a higher success rate with more bodies to choose from. Most other teams target a guy and make and educated gamble. As much as I'd like to stay put and just draft reality says there is only so much space.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by Butter:
Balke has proven that he can find good players in the draft. The next step that I'd like to see is his ability to maneuver on draft day. In the Bill Walsh era, the Niners worked the draft board like a speed bag several times. In my opinion, the draft is about two different things; 1) talent, 2) good value. A good example of value is Sebastian Janikowski. His a talented kicker, but was he worth a 1st round draft pick. Talent, but poor value.

Anthony Davis looks like he might turn out to be a good player, but the Niners jumped up to get him. It's impossible to say, but I think that was unnecessary and probably not great value. Next year, Aldon Smith was a out of the blue, but turned out to be a valuable player. Could the Niners have traded down and still got him? Great player, safe pick, best possible value?

Part of the reason I always considered Walsh to be such a genius is because he could see value (Jerry Rice) and get good value.

What should the Niners do with their pick this year?

you do realize that every single pick from last years class besides Aldon was acquired VIA a trade at some point right? and 4 picks from 2010 were acquired through trades as well...I think he has already shown he can maneuver on draft day.

Well, if you are referring to these:

TRADES
w/Denver: 49ers 2nd (No. 45), 4th (No. 108), 5th (No. 141) for Broncos 2nd (No. 36 - Kaepernick)
w/Jacksonville: 49ers 3rd (No. 76) for Jaguars 3rd (No. 80 - Culliver) and 6th (No. 182 - Johnson)
w/Green Bay: 49ers 6th (No. 174) and 7th (No. 231) for Packers 5th (No. 163 - Kilgore)

...I guess so.

Also there was:

2009, 49ers traded 2nd round pick to Carolina for 2010 1st (Scott Mc)

It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.
trade down
Trade down and get Tim McDonald son T.J. next year baby!!
I think Baalke is decisive. If he wants a certain player he'll go after the pick BUT each pick has a value that he won't go beyond.

He is a shrewd operator. It depends on who falls to us at #30.

If he moves up I don't see in being higher than #20.

Just a guess on my part but I think we stand pat.
  • sfout
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2010: Dixon and Iupati were also acquired via trades at some point in the season or previous drafts

49ers receive: » Third-round pick (No. 91):Navorro Bowman » Sixth-round pick (No. 173):Anthony Dixon » 2011 fourth-round pick

Chargers receive: » Third-round pick (No. 79):Donald Butler
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Broncos receive: » First-round pick (No. 13):Traded to Eagles» Fourth-round pick (No. 113):Traded to Patriots

49ers receive: » First-round pick (No. 11):Anthony Davis
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Dolphins receive: » Fifth-round pick (No. 145):Nolan Carroll

49ers receive: » Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr.
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2011: 3 actual draft day trades but every pick besides Aldon was acquired via trade from either previous drafts or this past season.
Niners receive:

» Fifth-round pick (No. 163):Daniel Kilgore

Packers receive: » Sixth-round pick (No. 174): Traded to Dolphins» Seventh-round pick (No. 231): Traded to Dolphins
-
Jaguars receive: » Third-round pick (No. 76):William Rackley

49ers receive: » Third-round pick (No. 80):Chris Culliver » Sixth-round pick (No. 182):Ronald Johnson
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» Second-round pick (No. 36):Colin Kaepernick

Broncos receive: » Second-round pick (No. 45):Rahim Moore » Fourth-round pick (No. 108):Quinton Carter » Fifth-round pick (No. 141): Traded to Packers
-

thats the full list of actual draft day trades Baalke has made in the past 2 years. I think he has definitely shown his ability to maneuver.
Coach H called Baalke a "steely eyed missile man" after last years draft...this a quote from
the movie " The right stuff"...and refers to his being able to make very good decisions under stress....
I think and trust for this FO to get the better part of the players they want in this draft.
[ Edited by highway49 on Mar 31, 2012 at 1:43 PM ]
It's not an easy question to answer. Our only major need right now is RG. My guess is that Peter Konz and Cordy Glenn will be gone. We'd then be praying that Stephen Hill or Fleener are there at #30. So in order to draft a quality RG, we'd need to move up into the middle of the second round. I can easily see that happening.

Never easy predict Baalke's moves.
Depeneding on who is there to be drafted I would hope they stay put if the value is not there then trade down and pick up extra pick in second and third.
Originally posted by dlance:
Depeneding on who is there to be drafted I would hope they stay put if the value is not there then trade down and pick up extra pick in second and third.

This. Except if the value is not there trade down while getting a first next year. If we have more than seven guys drafted this year than multiple guys from this draft will not make the team.