stever full first round mock

stever · 2012-03-25T12:48:36-07:00

Ok, here we go with the full first rounder. Comments are welcome, especially for my niners decision and explanation : 1) Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck, QB from Stanford There are rumors about the possibility of Griffin beeing the top pick, but i don't think the colts will go that way. They have had one of the greatest pocket passers of all time for the last decade and i think they will go with Luck here, because they like this kind of qb. 2) Washington Redskins Robert Griffin III, QB from Baylor The Redskins traded up to get Griffin. They would take Luck, too, but if he is gone, RG III will be the guy. The first to picks are no brainers, with the small possibility that they are swapped. 3) Minnesota Vikings Matt Kalil, OT from USC Clayborne could be interesting for the Vikes, too, because there only good cornerback is Antoine Winfield, who is on the wrong side of 30, but they need to protect Christian Ponder, who can be good with the right supporting cast. Kalil is the clear cut #1 left tackle, so he is the pick 4) Cleveland Browns Trent Richardson, RB from Alabama This pick is about the question if you are willing to take Ryan Tannehill this high. Colt McCoy does not seem to be the answer, but maybe it helps, if he can hand off the ball to a real running back. Tannehill will be picked in the first round but not this high. I made this mock without trades, so valuewise, this pick has to be Richardson here. 5) Tampa Bay Buccs Morris Claiborne, CB from LSU Ronde Barber keeps on playing, but he will not do this forever. Aquib Talib is in legal troubles and could not be available, so a corner is really needed. Another possibility would be a right tackle, but #5 is very very high for a rt. Don't rule out Trent Richardson here, because Blount is a good runner, but not much else, because he can't pass protect and can't catch. All in all the corner need is just too big and the value too good with Claiborne. 6) St.Louis Rams Justin Blackmon, WR from Oklahoma State Not an easy pick. The Rams need help at WR, OT and DT mostly. As i said earlier, i think this is too high for the next offensive tackle Riley Reiff. This leaves Dontari Poe and Justin Blackmon as possibilites here. You can get a good DT with the next pick, but no stud WR in Blackmons level. So the pick is Blackmon here 7) Jacksonville Jaguars Michael Floyd, WR from Notre Dame The Jaguars just don't have a #1 wr. They signed Laurent Robinson, but he is a #2 guy, too. Michael Floyd has so much potential and is a real #1, so he is the pick here. 8) Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill, QB from Texas A&M The Dolphins signed David Garrard, but he isn't the solution for the long run, but he is a good player to give a young qb some time to develop. So Tannehill makes a lot of sense here. The Dolphins need a WR too, but if you don't have a guy who can throw the ball to him on a constant base, you have to pick this guy up first. 9) Carolina Panthers Dontari Poe, DT from Memphis This is between Poe and Reiff here. The hole at defensive tackle looks a lot bigger than the hole at tackle. Poe just has much more value here. 10) Buffalo Bills Dre Kirkpatrick, CB from Alabama The bills adressed the top need for defensive ends with the signing of Mario Williams and Mark Andersen. They need a left tackle, too, but there are only right tackles available here without reaching, so they will pick up a corner here 11) Kansas City Chiefs Riley Reiff, RT from Iowa Barry Richardson needs to be replaced. Reiff is very good value here, so there is not much to think about. 12) Seattle Seahawks Quinton Coples, DE from North Carolina The hawks had some problems getting to the quarterback and the top pass rusher is still available. So if the hawks have the chance to pick up Coples, he should be the pick. 13) Arizona Cardinals Jonathan Martin, OT from Stanford The Cardinals could need to tackles. They resigned Levi Brown but the need another tackle. The could pick up David DeCastro here, too, but the signing of Adam Snyder looks like they are set at guard. 14) Dallas Cowboys Michael Brockers, DE from LSU The cowboys d-line is getting old, the top cornerbacks are gone, so it is time to get some fresh blood at front. 15) Philadelphia Eagles Fletcher Cox, DT from Mississippi State This pick was penciled in as Luke Kuechly for the whole offseason. But now it changed, because the eagles signed Demeco Ryans. Kuechly could still be the pick, but the eagles like a good rotation on the defensive front and so this pick makes sense. 16) New York Jets Melvin Ingram, OLB from South Carolina The Jets got some good numbers from Aaron Maybin, but they need more from their rushers. Melvin Ingram would be a steal here 17) Cincinatti Bengals David Decastro, OG from Stanford The Bengals will loose both starters at the guard position, so the selection of the best guard in the draft is quite natural ;) 18) San Diego Chargers Cordy Glenn, OG from Georgia The chargers need a replacement for Kris Dielman. A pass rusher like Courtne Upshaw is possible, too, but Glenn is the pick here 19) Chicago Bears Janoris Jenkins, CB from North Alabama The trade for Brandon Marshall moved wr a little bit down the list, but Kendall Wright is still possible. Imo cornerback is now the top need and Janoris Jenkins is the next corner available. So i pick him here 20) Tennessee Titans Peter Konz, C from Wisconsin The Titans have paid a lot of money to Chris Johnson, so they need to find some people, who open him some lanes. The titans need help all along the line and started with picking up Steve Hutchinson, but they need way more help. 21) Cincinatti Bengals Kendall Wright, WR from Baylor How about another weapon for Andy Dalton ? AJ Green is great, but nobody else from the wr corps is special. The bengals would need a cornerback or a interior lineman too, but nobody is available here who is worth #21 22) Cleveland Browns Stephen Hill, WR from Georgia Tech If they Browns decide to go with McCoy for another year, the need to give some weapons. So they pick up the best wr available. The draft just does not fall for the browns quarterback wise, so they must pick the weapons for Colt. 23) Detroit Lions Mark Barron, S from Alabama Cornerback or safety are the top needs for Detroit and there is no corner worth this pick. So the Lions pick up the playmaker from Alabama to play opposite to Louis Delmas. 24) Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Adams, OT from Ohio State The same procedure as every year :) The steelers need help on the oline and on the dline. Devon Still could be the defensive pick but i take the left tackle from Ohio State here, because of Max Starks' injury 25) Denver Broncos Devon Still, DT from Penn State The top need is an offensive guard, which would bring Kevin Zeitler into the mix. It would be a move to make Peyton happy. But ultimatly, the hole at defensive tackle is just as large and the value in picking up Still here is much better 26) Houston Texans Luke Kuechly, LB from Boston College Demeco Ryans was traded away, Kuechly is available and a steal here, so not much to explain 27) New England Patriots Nick Perry, OLB from USC Mark Anderson is gone, Andre Carter is a free agent, the patriots pass rush was bad last year, so they need a pass rusher, or better, they need too. Perry is the best one available. 28) Green Bay Packers Courtney Upshaw, OLB from Alabama The packers don't have anybody besides Clay Matthews. They pick up another speed rusher for the other side. A 5 technique like Kendal Reyes could be an option, too. 29) Baltimore Ravens Whitney Mercilus, OLB from Illinois Jarret Johnson is gone, so the ravens need another pass rusher opposite to Terrell Suggs. 30) San Franciso 49ers Reuben Randle, WR from LSU So who is available here : Reuben Randle or Alshon Jeffery or Coby Fleener as receiving threats, Kendal Reyes or Jerel Worthy as 5 techniques, and Kevin Zeitler as a guard. The best player available could be Stephon Gilmore or David Wilson, but i don't think we will pick up a running back this early. Zeitler is too high imo, we need to pick a guard in the 2nd round. This leaves the 3 playmakers and 2 the backup defensive ends. So i will go receiver here. But which one ? I really like Fleener, but the niners allready have two great receiving tight ends. Jeffery without a 40 time is just too risky. I will pick Randle here, but this could change to Jeffery if he has a pro day with a sub 4.5 40. In the real thing, i think the niners would try to trade down from this spot, if the draft falls this way. There just is not enough value for them here. 31) New England Pats Jerel Worthy, DE from Michigan State There are some older ( Warren ) or not very good (Love) guys on the defensive end positions in New England. They need some younger guy to rebuild the line. 32) New York Giants Donta Hightower, LB from Alabama Chase Blackburn needs to be upgraded. There are no safeties worth this pick, and i talked about the problematic area for guards earlier, so this should be Hightower.

Mar 25, 2012 at 1:09 PM

49erThrowback
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Posts: 1,194

Just can't see the Niners going for a WR here, and given the talent, I doubt there's one slotted on their board within 10 picks on either side of #30. And unlikely he'd see more than a few plays on the field all year, except perhaps on ST. More likely to pick Fleener if he's there, or an OL, but if the draft goes mostly this way but Fleener if gone, a good chance they entertain trades for someone's first round pick next year if another team is in love with someone still on the board who won't be there when it's their turn to pick.

[ Edited by 49erThrowback on Mar 25, 2012 at 1:11 PM ]

Mar 25, 2012 at 1:12 PM

stever
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Posts: 1,820

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
Just can't see the Niners going for a WR here, and given the talent, I doubt there's one slotted on their board within 10 picks on either side of #30. And unlikely he'd see more than a few plays on the field all year, except perhaps on ST. More likely to pick Fleener if he's there, or an OL, but if the draft goes mostly this way but Fleener if gone, a good chance they entertain trades for someone's first round pick next year if another team is in love with someone still on the board who won't be there when it's their turn to pick.

I think too, that a trade down is very likely in this scenario. There is no oliner available without reaching and i just don't think that the niners will pick up a 3rd receiving tight end.

Mar 25, 2012 at 1:14 PM

nickbradley
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Posts: 3,755

Fleener is a much better pick. Way better. Walker is a non-producer and is a free agent next offseason. Randle would be the #6 WR and won't see any action in 12 as a result.

Other than that, this mock is very realistic and is also one of the worst case scenarios for the 49ers...unless they take fleener.

Mar 25, 2012 at 1:19 PM

49erThrowback
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Posts: 1,194

If they pick Fleener, it's because they know Walker isn't a long term answer for that position (either because he can't carry the load or he leaves with FA next year). I think it's more likely that if a G or G/C falls a bit, the Niners will trade up to grab him if it doesn't cost too much. This is going to be a crazy draft and my hunch is that a bunch of receivers, RBs, and tackles will go early, pushing down a few players at other positions. Personally I think Fleener will be off the board before #30, too.

Mar 25, 2012 at 1:21 PM

stever
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Posts: 1,820

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Fleener is a much better pick. Way better. Walker is a non-producer and is a free agent next offseason. Randle would be the #6 WR and won't see any action in 12 as a result.

Other than that, this mock is very realistic and is also one of the worst case scenarios for the 49ers...unless they take fleener.

This is what i thought, too. Very bad scenario for the niners, but unfortunately, it could happen that way. The good WRs should be long gone and it isn't unlikely that the top interior linemen are all gone too.

Mar 25, 2012 at 1:32 PM

49erThrowback
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Posts: 1,194

Originally posted by stever:
This is what i thought, too. Very bad scenario for the niners, but unfortunately, it could happen that way. The good WRs should be long gone and it isn't unlikely that the top interior linemen are all gone too.

It's very unusual that so many interior linemen are being discussed as first round locks. Frankly, I don't see any of them as being the second coming of Steve Hutchinson, much less Mike Iupati (DeCastro may be an exception). Maybe the sportswriters are sharing a kind of mass hysteria, and those teams that are looking for good value for interior linemen will end up drafting OTs who make good G candidates. However, I could see the Niners go for Konz if he's available to them (straight pick or not-painful trade up). Their MO lately, though, leads me to think they'll look for OL value on Day 2. Could even happen that they end up signing Leonard Davis for a 1-year stint. A lot of things might happen in this draft, and could be we'll see trades galore in the first round.

Mar 25, 2012 at 2:16 PM

nw9erfan
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Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Fleener is a much better pick. Way better. Walker is a non-producer and is a free agent next offseason. Randle would be the #6 WR and won't see any action in 12 as a result.

Other than that, this mock is very realistic and is also one of the worst case scenarios for the 49ers...unless they take fleener.

Gonna have to agree with the above points. Also, Fleener knows the offense so he can offer help immediately. Randle may have some upside but probably won't provide much as a rookie.

After his Pro Day however, Fleener certainly could be taken before pick 30. If he is, I think it would be wise to trade down if the Niners can find a willing trade partner...unless of course, a stud DLman is still on the board then.

Cheers!

[ Edited by nw9erfan on Mar 25, 2012 at 2:18 PM ]

Mar 25, 2012 at 2:43 PM

BigBug415
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Posts: 1,383

The Bengals own the Raiders #17 pick.

Mar 25, 2012 at 4:19 PM

ishkabibel
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Posts: 696

Your right under this scenario I'd like to trade back. Question is who wants to trade up and for whom.

Mar 25, 2012 at 4:34 PM

#10

FredFlintstone
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Posts: 46,740

the bounty hunters dont have a 1st rd pick, it belongs to the pats

Mar 25, 2012 at 5:07 PM

#11

LasVegasWally
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Posts: 24,835

I'm another Fleener guy.

DWalker is a FA next season. Fleener is faster ad knows JH systems and will be able to contribute quickly.

I'd love to see a 3 TE formation.

You never know, if we pick Fleener DWalker could be an excellent trade bait for maybe a RG?

Mar 26, 2012 at 8:56 AM

#12

lamontb
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Posts: 33,136

Nobody is trading for Delanie Walker. Come on now.

Mar 26, 2012 at 9:47 AM

#13

cciowa
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Posts: 60,541

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
I'm another Fleener guy.

DWalker is a FA next season. Fleener is faster ad knows JH systems and will be able to contribute quickly.

I'd love to see a 3 TE formation.

You never know, if we pick Fleener DWalker could be an excellent trade bait for maybe a RG?

i bet we get a kid from iowa state for RG in the second round and then sign leonard davis cheap as we will know his health by then. But if mcnutt is there at two i bet they take him and get a Rg in round three. I am basing this theory on fleener being there for us at number one. No reason to trade walker, if we get fleener thats three good tight ends for the coaches system plus as we have said before, fleener and davis on the field together is not good for the opposing defense plus walker is good if someone gets hurt.

Mar 26, 2012 at 10:02 AM

#14

okdkid
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Posts: 23,723

How dare you be original and stray from a Fleener or Hill pick! Group think only!