In a recent ESPN article on soon-to-be market-setting contracts, Bill Barnwell calls Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson a "future Hall of Famer." While that might be true—Jackson is a superstar—that phrase is thrown around way too often.
Before I get started, let me iterate: I am not saying Lamar Jackson definitely won't get in or that he is undeserving, simply that calling him a sure thing is premature.
Consider the following. On the plus side, Jackson has won two league MVPs, been to four Pro Bowls, and been named to three All-Pro teams. Those seem worthy of the Hall.
However.
Let's look at a few measurements voters use when judging quarterbacks.
Postseason performance and results
In his eight seasons in Baltimore, with a loaded roster, Jackson has never taken a team to the Super Bowl and has reached the conference championship game only once. The Ravens have missed the playoffs entirely twice and were bounced in the Wild Card game twice as well. In total, he has led the club to just four postseason wins.
To put that into perspective, in just four years, oft-undervalued 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has won five playoff games, taken the team to the conference championship twice, including in his rookie year, and to the Super Bowl.
Statistics
In career passing yards, Jackson ranks 104th, twenty spots behind the Chargers' Justin Hebert, who has been in the league just five seasons, forty behind Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield, who did it in eight, and forty-eight behind the Bills' Josh Allen, who also did it in eight and is also a running quarterback. There are three more of Jackson's generation who are way ahead of him.
In career touchdown passes, Jackson ranks 64th, again significantly behind Allen, Mayfield, and the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes.
Compare Jackson to Allen. The latter has also been an MVP, and Allen has taken the Bills to the playoffs every year except his rookie campaign, has been to the conference championship twice, and has won far more playoff games. If Allen plays, say, five more years and stays on roughly the same pace, he would likely finish in the top 15 in career TD passes. If Allen and Jackson were to retire in the same year and voters could choose only one because of the numbers game, who should it be?
This is not to say that Lamar Jackson is an average quarterback. Or that there is no way he will make the Hall of Fame. Only that at this stage of his career, his prorated numbers are more in line with Donovan McNabb's, an outstanding, 6-time Pro Bowl, mobile quarterback who is not in the Hall.
Saying "future Hall of Famer" simply seems premature.
One quarterback you could say it about with the utmost confidence is Mahomes. He has also been named league MVP twice and has been voted to the Pro Bowl six times. Statistically, he is very highly ranked, on pace to finish in the top 10 in touchdown passes and the top 15 in passing yards.
Most important, though, is that Mahomes, in the same number of seasons as Jackson (the Chiefs did not start Mahomes in his rookie year), has won three Super Bowls, been MVP in all three, and taken the team to two more Super Bowls. They have missed the playoffs just once, last season when Mahomes was injured. Mahomes is likely a first-ballot inductee.
While I believe he will go in in his first year of eligibility, that phrase is my second pet peeve.
This one bugs me more because only a handful of players are inducted each year, and who goes in is largely determined by who else is up that year. Often, there are plenty of worthy candidates who do not get in simply because of that numbers game.
Here are a few examples.
When he retired, wide receiver Cris Carter was third all-time in receiving yards and second in receptions. Yet it took him five years to get in.
Michael Strahan, fifth all-time in sacks and a Super Bowl champion, was passed over in his first year of eligibility.
Tight end Tony Gonzales was the first tight end in history elected on the first ballot. That means legend Mike Ditka of the Chicago Bears had to wait for his gold jacket.
And there are other factors.
Length of career
The Faithful's beloved Patrick Willis was one of the greatest linebackers of his generation, but he played only eight seasons, the last of which was shortened by injury.
Even though he was a first-team All-Pro five times, a second-team All-Pro once, and a seven-time Pro Bowler (the only time he wasn't was that injury year), even though he was Defensive Rookie of the Year, and even though he led the league in tackles twice, it took him five years to get in.
As a point of comparison, Dolphins linebacker Zach Thomas was voted in before Willis was. Thomas also earned five first-team All-Pro nods and was named to seven Pro Bowls. But he never led the league in tackles, was not the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and was never voted the best linebacker in the game by his peers (as PW was twice).
But he played 13 seasons.
Personality
Terrell Owens is third all-time in touchdown receptions and third in receiving yardage (second in both when he retired). He had a lengthy career and was considered a lock for the Hall of Fame. But he was also considered at best a distraction and at worst a locker room cancer on the teams he played for, and he did not go in until his third year.
Larry Fitzgerald, on the other hand, who is a spot ahead of Owens in yardage (but behind him in per-season average) and behind TO in touchdown receptions, was considered an example of the professional a young player should emulate. And Larry went in on the first ballot. Both are worthy of the Hall, but how they were perceived as people made a difference.
Perception of performance
Eli Manning has hit several benchmarks that usually get a quarterback inducted. He passed for over 57,000 yards, and all those who have done that and were eligible are in. Likewise, he threw 366 touchdowns, and all eligible quarterbacks who threw at least 350 are in. Manning won two Super Bowls. But enough believe he was too inconsistent to be voted in, so he is still waiting.
And on a local note, while no one thought running back Roger Craig would get in during his first year of eligibility, neither did anyone imagine it would take him thirty-three. The Hall's voters are sometimes just squirrely.
This is not to denigrate any of the great players who do not get in on their first year of eligibility—far from it. Only that calling every great NFL player a first ballot is much too common.
A look ahead
Here are the current 49ers who many believe will get into the Hall of Fame once their careers are over, along with a few I consider on pace.
Locks
Trent Williams
The consensus is that Williams, who has been the gold standard at offensive tackle for years, will be elected to the Hall of Fame. He has been to 12 Pro Bowls and received five first- or second-team All-Pro nods. However, because of the numbers game, I caution against being confident that he will make it in his first year (though my fingers are crossed).
Mike Evans
A new addition to the team, Evans is tied for the record of consecutive 1,000 receiving-yard seasons with 11. The only other player to accomplish that was Jerry Rice. With one good season, Evans would be in the top 15 in yardage, and two strong seasons would put him in the top 10. But again, do not be surprised or dismayed if Evans is not elected his first year. The current numbers, 8 (Steve Smith) and 10 (Reggie Wayne), are still waiting.
Getting close
Fred Warner
Entering only his ninth season, Warner is doing everything right to make it into the Hall of Fame. He has been named a first-team All-Pro four times, even once unanimously, voted to four Pro Bowls, and voted the top off-ball linebacker in the game by his peers for three years running. He is considered the prototype of the modern middle linebacker.
There is no linebacker—inside or outside—who is as good as Warner is in pass coverage. (Check out this play in which he covers Cowboys All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.) In my mid-60s, I can confidently say I have never seen any LB as good in that area. Derrick Brooks (a 2014 HOF enshrinee) comes closest.
George Kittle
While Kittle has been in the league for only nine years, he is 10th all-time in receiving yards among tight ends. However, eight of those ahead of him are retired, and with two or three solid seasons, George could well be in the top five.
Just as important, ever since his rookie year, Kittle has been considered the most complete tight end in football. Of those ahead of him statistically, only one, Rob Gronkowski (eligible in 2027), is considered as vicious a blocker as our 49ers star is.
Has work to do
Christian McCaffrey
What CMC needs to do is to simply stay healthy. When he has been on the field, his performance has suggested he has a good shot to be considered for the highest individual honor a player can receive. Outside of his rookie campaign, every season he has played a full season, he has comfortably produced 1,000 rushing. He is one of the best receiving backs in league history and is part of the 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving club, one of the most exclusive in football, with only two other members. But if he can't stay healthy, he won't likely be part of the discussion.
Nick Bosa
Bosa is one of the best defensive ends in the league when healthy, but his career has been limited by injury. He was Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and Defensive Player of the Year in 2022, but he has not yet shown dominance for long enough.
Compared to his contemporary Myles Garrett, who will likely jump into the top five in career sacks in just a few years (and is a lock for the Hall) and TJ Watt, who tied the season sack record in 2022, Bosa is not in the discussion yet. He is only 135th in career sacks, 40 spots behind his brother, Joey. If Nick can stay healthy and ends up having a long career, who knows, though?
A wonderful 49ers nugget
When the HOF voters meet, the format is that a local writer stands and nominates a player. The journalist then makes a case, offering statistics, the player's reputation among peers and opponents, and so forth. In 2010, 49ers beat writer Nancy Gay did something different. She stood and said, "Jerry Rice," and sat down. Neither before nor since has that been done.
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