There are 118 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

My 2012 Offseason Take #2

I love in all these mocks, we never loose any good players. Last year everyone had us keeping Nate, Lawson, and Spikes, unless we drafted their position in the 1st 2 rounds.
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by FredFlintstone:
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Originally posted by FredFlintstone:
so were going with the same wr corp but adding a 4th rd rookie??

Probably because Morgan was making big strides before he got hurt. If he comes back healthy and continues the early season roll he was on, our WR corps would be better. Fuller would be a good value pick in the 4th round.

i like morgan and all but im not satisfied with a wr group that cant constantly get open, with all the possible wr free agents i would hope we go for at least 1 of those guys. i'll be satisfied with a group of say stevie johnson/colston, crabtree, morgan, williams and the rookie. i want someone that defenses have to worry about and key on and not having to say you stop vernon and you have a great chance to win.

Neither am I, but I am not convinced that we go for a WR that early but I do agree that we could double dip as someone else mentions a couple posts later. He was an undrafted free agent but Dontavia Bogan is on injured reserve and will also be competing with John Matthews and Joe Hastings for a roster spot / PS spots.

I'm also not convinced that we bring Ginn back because KW and Hunter stepped it up in the return game the past couple weeks but I still see Ginn's free agent demand at a near ZERO so I don't believe we'll have issues with bringing him back unless we cut him loose on our terms.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Fuller has starting potential, he just battled injuries and some inconsistent offensive play, in my opinion. I think he can rebound, and is worth a shot in the 3rd-4th.

I think Williams is a good package-specific receiver that has room to go, but he does have a history of injuries and we need insurance for both him AND Morgan AND Crabtree.

I think we need to add two receivers and possibly go with 6 next season. Crabtree had the foot, Morgan the broken leg, Williams had hamstring and concussion, Walker the jaw and other various nicks in the past, Byham the knee. I keep saying, we need to cover our bases. I think we need to bring a bunch of receivers into camp. I say at least 8, and 4-5 TEs.

Maybe something like...

WR - Crabtree, Morgan, Rookie, Williams, Ginn, Rookie, Bogan, Hastings

TE - Davis, Walker, Byham, Reuland, Rookie

OTC is right - More than likely we will carry 10 total receivers going into next season, but don't forget that JH utilizes the PS to it's full extent and most of our packages hinge on only 2 receivers or 2 TEs we rarely go 4 WRS or more so if we focus mainly on 6 quality WRs/TEs and 1 or 2 PS quality guys I would say we're in good shape.


Originally posted by irishluder:
I really like your FA Niners re-signings

But I really dont want to take a 1st round Center, I know alot of guys are really high on Konz...but we have MUCH more pressing needs. CB and WR are two positions we need more talent on, that upgrades our starters. I like picking CB with the 2nd pick and WR Fuller with the 4th, but I'd like to see a WR at #32 . We need to take a shot at a tall pass catching TE also. Good late picks at CB and FS.

Thank you :D

I'm not too keen on a first round lineman but I think there is more value at OL in #1 then receiver in #1. I'm also not convinced that any of the late first round CB's are actually quality prospects. Look at Minnifield and Hosley, Hosley doesn't fit our system and Minnifield could fit but I am taking Hayward's ball hawking ability over Minnifield's lack of said skill.

In my first pass at our off season I had us drafting LaDarius Green TE from Louisiana-Lafayette, 6-6 230 athlete from hell, I would love to add him as a 3rd receiving weapon, he's nearly lean enough to transition to WR so he could be a great versatility pick as well.


Originally posted by Kolohe:
I'd be amazed, no I'd be shocked if we re-sign that many of our own free agents.

Why? Most of our free agents are low demand back ups that haven't generated buzz at all this season. Short of Larry Grant no back up has had a good enough season to warrant a long term deal on another team. Sure I wouldn't bat an eyelash if we lost Brooks because of his production, which is why I have us drafting Audie Cole in the 3rd but at the same time we've built a different team here and I don't see people wanting to leave, especially with $40 million in cap room. We really only have 4 people worth big deals: Alex, Goldson, Rogers, and Brooks. Morgan will be worth something but we'll offer him a lesser deal and tell him we'll work something out when he has a solid year. After that no one really deserves much more then 1 - 3 year 3 million dollar deals or something comprable.

Originally posted by nw9erfan:
I love your explanations regarding the re-signs as well as the Konz pick at number 1...a guy who could help anchor the line for the next 10 years. I could even go with taking a CB with the number 2 pick. After that however, I think you dropped off a bit, even though I like Black pick at number 6.

I think it is pretty clear now that one of the weakest areas on the team is WR. Since Baalke and Co. want to build through the draft rather than spend a lot in free agency on big name players, waiting until pick 4 seems unlikely.

Like many other zoners, I think the Niners will actually draft 2 wideouts...a burner to help stretch the field and an athletic guy that can consistently get separation. Only Davis at TE seems to be able to get separation and that simply won't cut in the NFL...

Still, there is a lot to like here....nice job overall.

Cheers!

I mentioned above that I think we will have 2 new wideouts in camp next year but I don't necessarily think we'll draft both of them. We already have John Matthews, Joe Hastings, and Dontavia Bogan competing for PS or possibly an active roster spot. Sure they're easily expendable but I'm not convinced that JH and Baalke turn the backs on these guys that quickly. IMO our receving group could look like this next year

Crabtree - Morgan - Rookie - Williams - Ginn - Bogan/Hastings/Matthews

But it could also look like

Crabtree - Morgan - Rookie - Williams - Rookie - Bogan/Hastings/Matthews

Ginn is the X factor, with us taking to WR Benford at the Shrine practices I am starting to lean the way that Ginn will be gone. I don't think we can afford to have a WR who is strictly KR and a liability on offense.


Originally posted by LottOfDefense:
I love in all these mocks, we never loose any good players. Last year everyone had us keeping Nate, Lawson, and Spikes, unless we drafted their position in the 1st 2 rounds.

I don't approach these threads as cut and dry. I should've put a disclaimer that I think this is how I think it will play out but I was hoping my explanations of the possibility of them leaving was sufficient enough to say that I think we could lose them. Because of this I addressed the needs, like a LB in the 3rd because there is a strong likelihood that Brooks leaves.

I also don't get your logic because we aren't really losing a lineman and I have us drafting a C not a RG. We have capable players in Kilgore and Person to replace Rachal.

Spencer is not that good which is why a 2nd year UDFA has unseated him as the 4th CB - Also the Hayward pick is the same logic as the Cole pick, we could realistically lose Rogers so we need to be prepared for it and draft a CB early.

I'm taking the same logic to the WR group, sure if Jeffery is available in the 1st I would love to take him but given the likelihood of us retaining Morgan I don't think we will be so hell bent on adding a WR early. We won 13 games with carousal of #2 receivers, if Morgan comes back I bet we win an extra game, the only receiver I think who will drastically improve our game is Alshon Jeffery. I don't think Kendall Wright or Dwight Jones would drastically improve our offense, especially because we emphasize blocking, I haven't seen Wright or Jones hailed for their blocking ability and I think we could find a later round prospect with those attributes.

Our free agents wont be in high demand, both Rogers and Goldson have had amazing years because of our system, not necessarily because of their amazing skills. Teams will recognize this and unless they play a very similar coverage scheme they will not pursue them extremely hard. Brooks is realistically the only free agent I truly think we will LOSE in free agency. Everyone else will be on our terms.

-------------------

Here is my personal opinion - The only way we draft a WR in rounds 1 or 2 is if he is supposed to start opposite Crabtree and have Morgan come off the bench in relief duty. Now if Morgan is still expected to start opposite Crabtree I remain convinced that the earliest we draft a WR is in the 3rd round, especially with prospects like Brian Quick, Juron Criner, Jeff Fuller, Marvin Jones and similar players available in the 3 - 5 rounds.

------------------

I also should have posted my take on the PS and our lower tier players, I think it would have provided context for a lot of my choices. I'll definitely do that on my next try after the Senior Bowl and Shrine game.
[ Edited by sfout on Jan 18, 2012 at 8:40 AM ]
Originally posted by Kolohe:
I'd be amazed, no I'd be shocked if we re-sign that many of our own free agents.

Exactly. I think folks are going overboard with the guys will want to play for the Niners thus just not taking top dollar elsewhere. These guys want to get paid.
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by Kolohe:
I'd be amazed, no I'd be shocked if we re-sign that many of our own free agents.

Exactly. I think folks are going overboard with the guys will want to play for the Niners thus just not taking top dollar elsewhere. These guys want to get paid.

Who will actually get paid? read my post, short of Alex, Goldson, Rogers, and Brooks no one has really stood out for other teams or are just quality back ups. How is it overboard to think with $40+ million in cap room that we can't franchise one of them, sign the other 3 to moderate deals and sign the rest of our back ups to quality deals. Grant will probably need a very big chunk of money but again I slated us drafting a LB in the 3rd to address either Brooks leaving or Grant leaving. We have PS guys who could fill in as the 4th MLB.
  • Kolohe
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 31,136
Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by Kolohe:
I'd be amazed, no I'd be shocked if we re-sign that many of our own free agents.

Exactly. I think folks are going overboard with the guys will want to play for the Niners thus just not taking top dollar elsewhere. These guys want to get paid.

A bunch of the prices for our own players just went up once we won that divisional game and made the NFC Championship, and I also base it on the fact that a bunch of these players turned down contract by Paraage and Baalke already.

Trust me, I'd love nothing else than to re-sign ALL of our key players, but in reality its just not going to happen.
I know we have spent a lot of high picks on OL but I really want Peter Konz.
Casey Hayward is one of my favorite players in the draft and to have Konz and Hayward as our first two picks, I'd be very happy.
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by SF69ers:
Casey Hayward is one of my favorite players in the draft and to have Konz and Hayward as our first two picks, I'd be very happy.

This is my thought as well. I'd love our draft to go like any of these three possibilities

Konz - Hayward - Quick - OLB Devin Taylor

Jefferry - Hayward - C Vlachos - Devin Taylor

Minnifield - OLB Bruce Irvin - Quick - C Garth Gerhart

Vlachos looks like another solid center prospect, not sure about his actual grade but I've heard of him getting 3rd round buzz a lot and Gerhart looks like a similar build to Goodwin and could be another good apprentice for him.
[ Edited by sfout on Jan 18, 2012 at 9:16 AM ]
Your FA analysis is spot on. I hope we can afford Brooks and Grant, as losing Brooks would effect our draft. I'm not sold on drafting Konz #1. I feel Snyder has earned that job at RG and Goodwin has 2 years left on his contract. I feel we can address RG via free agency or later in the draft. I just feel strongly our 1st rounder should play a large role as a Rookie, and there are several areas a rook could come in and contribute more. That said, I do believe Konz can start as a Rookie, but would we need him to? Great job.
good draft I just dont like jeff fuller being the only addition at wr. I think we'll get a FA WR.
i would like to get a WR early in the draft if we don't upgrade in FA. i also don't see grant or reggie smith returning. they would be backups here, they will go somewhere to try and compete for a starting job.
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by davidboutte:
Your FA analysis is spot on. I hope we can afford Brooks and Grant, as losing Brooks would effect our draft. I'm not sold on drafting Konz #1. I feel Snyder has earned that job at RG and Goodwin has 2 years left on his contract. I feel we can address RG via free agency or later in the draft. I just feel strongly our 1st rounder should play a large role as a Rookie, and there are several areas a rook could come in and contribute more. That said, I do believe Konz can start as a Rookie, but would we need him to? Great job.

Thank you for the compliment and regarding our OL that is how I've felt for much of the season. I don't think RG is what we'll truly be targeting with our 1st rounder, WR or CB are far more likely to be addressed at that point. I'd truly prefer to draft a WR early and either a draft a 2nd receiver after the 4th round or add someone in FA.

Originally posted by OtisDriftwood:
good draft I just dont like jeff fuller being the only addition at wr. I think we'll get a FA WR.

Thank you as well and I agree we should add a second WR just as I mentioned above. I think there are a ton of options in FA like Robert Meachem, Andre Caldwell, Pierre Garcon etc.


Originally posted by niners9:
i would like to get a WR early in the draft if we don't upgrade in FA. i also don't see grant or reggie smith returning. they would be backups here, they will go somewhere to try and compete for a starting job.

Those are likely possibilities but I think that Grant will want to stay here, an old regime kicked him out and the new one brought him back, he might like it here with the new management. Reggie on the other hand though I really can see bouncing for a chance at starting gig. I do know its more realistic that can't keep both Goldson and Reggie. We keep one or the other, not both. However Reggie is actually listed as a back up SS for Whitner and could possibly be retained in that roll if he is happy with it.
If we could somehow land Carl Nicks, I would switch the Konz pick to Jeffrey. But in the likely event that that won't happen, I would be very pleased with this situation!
This is turning into a very interesting thread... I do like your thinking regarding the PS players this year. I think WR Bogan, TE Reuland, C Beeler, and NT Williams, for example, could really surprise next year in training camp and even before the draft in mini camps. All have a chance to make the 53 man roster next season, I believe.

At this point, the team should have some idea about what the PS guys are capable of...and certainly would know if the guys are working hard and grasping the schemes and system. Given that, it is really difficult to predict what they will do in the draft.....other than go after a wideout or two.

One weakness that I've noticed with all the Niners WRs is that they don't get a lot of separation. I'm wondering which of the bigger WRs in the draft have that ability... Feel free to chime in on that if you know of any....those guys are the ones that the team will likely target.

Cheers!
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 20,638
I think we'll be picking a WR a little earlier. Nice mock, though.