If you could redo one of the 49ers pick who would you take.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I don't think you fully read my post. As stated in my post, this re-do of the Niners draft is based on the idea that a) the Niners did not trade up or down at number 7 (although I would have been happy to move picks for Peterson); and b) they did not make the trade for Kaepernick, nor for Kilgore. So, the added pick in the fourth and sixth round exists (12 selections overall), and hence, Cannon would have been my second fourth round pick.

As for selecting guys who went after the Niners' selection, that is always the main premise. You can't select guys who went before.

To my knowledge, I have never used the word, "reach", for Smith at 7. Since I projected him to go at 11, he was in the area I suspected a team might select him. I avoid saying "reach" because it makes people angry, frustrated, irrational. I use the term, "value", instead. You are right that some may say that Smith may have more value than Watt, but team boards are varied. What some team may value in Watt, may not be what they value in Smith. On my board, Smith does not have 7th overall value, since I do not believe he is near the 7th overall best player. Many teams would probably agree with me. At the same time, some would disagree and say that Smith does has 7th overall value. In the end, it appeared the team was stuck with the 7th overall, and in this scenario, I think the better, wiser, safer selection was Watt, not Smith.

As for teams converting players to positions that they were not projected to be drafting for (in the case of Clay), that is the drafting team's perogative. It does not mean the player cannot play the position they played in college. They may run a scheme that could use the player in a different position (like Miller for the Niners).

You believe my draft is not better than the Niners, and that is your right. However, in comparing my drafts to the Niners over the years, I think you would easily trade the guys we selected for the ones I earmarked in the past. We wouldn't have seen the mountain of second and third round disasters that have plagued our teams.

It appeared the Niners did not come away with either of their intended goals for the 7th overall, selecting Patrick Peterson, nor trading with Atlanta for a boatload of picks. Whether it be bad luck, or poor planning, it sure appeared the Niners were stuck with the 7th overall, and simply picked the best player on their board, based on need, which was Smith. That set the wheels in motion for a series of days where they did not get the best picks in their slots.

Oh, I read your post. I'm just not into hypotheticals. "What would have happened if the Niners hadn't traded up or down, etc."

The Niners draft is done and on the record. If you want to come up with a better scenario, then you have to compare it directly to what they did, not to what might have occurred if they hadn't done what they did. Likewise, the actual draft has occurred, so we don't need to conjecture about player rankings.

A direct comparison is helpful, IMHO.

Further, I'm not sure you want to get into comparisions of past drafts, or your analyses of past drafts. For one, we no longer have McGloughan doing the drafting, or Nolan/Singletary looking over his shoulder on draft day.

Same goes for Baalke/Singletary. Not sure Baalke would have gone with two OL in the first round, or with Mays in the second, last year without Singletary's input.

So the focus is just on this year's draft. Truly, the biggest lack is no NT. Although that is of some concern, I am nevertheless intrigued by the Baalke/Harbaugh leadership and the amount of thought and planning they had to have put into this draft.

They could not have missed the NT issue, so they must have something else in mind.

As for the first round scenario you present, rumor has it that they were prepared to trade back with Atlanta, but it fell through. Maybe they tried to trade up to get Peterson, but I've never heard anyone confirm that.

Neither of those two possibilities means that Aldon Smith wasn't or isn't worth the #7 pick, or that the Niner's didn't get most, if not all the players they'd targeted.

So, rather than a grade--which is really meaningless--I prefer to consider the Niner's draft this year as intriguing and filled with potential. I consider your hypothetical draft to be interesting, but it does not contain overwhelming evidence that the Niners should have gone a different way. IMHO.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by domingo:
Though I thought that Aldon Smith was a solid pick and more importantly the correct pick under the circumstances, I would have tried to trade up with Cincy for Patrick Peterson. The chart says it would have cost us a third and fourth but Im a quality over quantity guy anyhow so I say it would have been worth it.

Not sure if the Bengals would have made that trade, but I would have offered a nice trade package to make it tempting. This would have eliminated our biggest problem heading into 2011 and beyond, with a stud CB.

Not sure either if the Bengals would have made the trade either but its fun to play the what if game. Three weeks after the draft Im just plain bored. However, I want the front office to be aggressive in the draft and Baalke is showing signs of warming to his task.

One of the positive things about the 2011 draft was that the 49er brass selected with the first three picks players at the most important positions/areas on the field. In my opinion the cornerstones of an NFL team are QB, of course, offensive tackle, cornerback and pass russ. Simply cant win without them and for years the 49ers have not placed a priority of using early picks on these positions.

We have made no serious attempt to address the QB position since 2005 (Alex Smith), the pass rush since 2006 (Manny Lawson) or corner in 2007 (Nate Clements) through free agency. To the 49ers credit they have made attempts to fill the tackle position with Staley and Davis.

We have used our premium picks on Safetys, Guards, non pass rush linerbackers, tight ends etc. In my opinion it goes along ways in explaining why we have sucked for years. Our QB sucks, our corners suck, no real pass rush and despite the effort, our tackles still leave a lot to be desired.

A basic and fast change in philosophy regarding player personnel has long been called for. Our first three picks in the 2011 draft, though their talent level is debatable it does indicate that the light has finally gone on inside the 49ers war room. In my opinion there is a little hope and reason for optimism now.

I want Baalke to continue to be proactive and not give up and wait years till he addresses these positions in the future.

Originally posted by domingo:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by domingo:
Though I thought that Aldon Smith was a solid pick and more importantly the correct pick under the circumstances, I would have tried to trade up with Cincy for Patrick Peterson. The chart says it would have cost us a third and fourth but Im a quality over quantity guy anyhow so I say it would have been worth it.

Not sure if the Bengals would have made that trade, but I would have offered a nice trade package to make it tempting. This would have eliminated our biggest problem heading into 2011 and beyond, with a stud CB.

Not sure either if the Bengals would have made the trade either but its fun to play the what if game. Three weeks after the draft Im just plain bored. However, I want the front office to be aggressive in the draft and Baalke is showing signs of warming to his task.

One of the positive things about the 2011 draft was that the 49er brass selected with the first three picks players at the most important positions/areas on the field. In my opinion the cornerstones of an NFL team are QB, of course, offensive tackle, cornerback and pass russ. Simply cant win without them and for years the 49ers have not placed a priority of using early picks on these positions.

We have made no serious attempt to address the QB position since 2005 (Alex Smith), the pass rush since 2006 (Manny Lawson) or corner in 2007 (Nate Clements) through free agency. To the 49ers credit they have made attempts to fill the tackle position with Staley and Davis.

We have used our premium picks on Safetys, Guards, non pass rush linerbackers, tight ends etc. In my opinion it goes along ways in explaining why we have sucked for years. Our QB sucks, our corners suck, no real pass rush and despite the effort, our tackles still leave a lot to be desired.

A basic and fast change in philosophy regarding player personnel has long been called for. Our first three picks in the 2011 draft, though their talent level is debatable it does indicate that the light has finally gone on inside the 49ers war room. In my opinion there is a little hope and reason for optimism now.

I want Baalke to continue to be proactive and not give up and wait years till he addresses these positions in the future.

While I agree that finding a superb pass rushing backer has been neglected for years in the draft and free agency, the team has to be careful not to select a player based on need that is inferior to another player at a slightly less important position of need.

In other words, if the Niners thought that Maurkice Pouncey was better than Anthony Davis, then they should have selected Pouncey last year, even though it was a position of less need.

We still have not addressed the NT position, and this could bite us as early as this year. That is why I was very high on Phil Taylor as a trade-down option.

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I don't think you fully read my post. As stated in my post, this re-do of the Niners draft is based on the idea that a) the Niners did not trade up or down at number 7 (although I would have been happy to move picks for Peterson); and b) they did not make the trade for Kaepernick, nor for Kilgore. So, the added pick in the fourth and sixth round exists (12 selections overall), and hence, Cannon would have been my second fourth round pick.

As for selecting guys who went after the Niners' selection, that is always the main premise. You can't select guys who went before.

To my knowledge, I have never used the word, "reach", for Smith at 7. Since I projected him to go at 11, he was in the area I suspected a team might select him. I avoid saying "reach" because it makes people angry, frustrated, irrational. I use the term, "value", instead. You are right that some may say that Smith may have more value than Watt, but team boards are varied. What some team may value in Watt, may not be what they value in Smith. On my board, Smith does not have 7th overall value, since I do not believe he is near the 7th overall best player. Many teams would probably agree with me. At the same time, some would disagree and say that Smith does has 7th overall value. In the end, it appeared the team was stuck with the 7th overall, and in this scenario, I think the better, wiser, safer selection was Watt, not Smith.

As for teams converting players to positions that they were not projected to be drafting for (in the case of Clay), that is the drafting team's perogative. It does not mean the player cannot play the position they played in college. They may run a scheme that could use the player in a different position (like Miller for the Niners).

You believe my draft is not better than the Niners, and that is your right. However, in comparing my drafts to the Niners over the years, I think you would easily trade the guys we selected for the ones I earmarked in the past. We wouldn't have seen the mountain of second and third round disasters that have plagued our teams.

It appeared the Niners did not come away with either of their intended goals for the 7th overall, selecting Patrick Peterson, nor trading with Atlanta for a boatload of picks. Whether it be bad luck, or poor planning, it sure appeared the Niners were stuck with the 7th overall, and simply picked the best player on their board, based on need, which was Smith. That set the wheels in motion for a series of days where they did not get the best picks in their slots.

Oh, I read your post. I'm just not into hypotheticals. "What would have happened if the Niners hadn't traded up or down, etc."

The Niners draft is done and on the record. If you want to come up with a better scenario, then you have to compare it directly to what they did, not to what might have occurred if they hadn't done what they did. Likewise, the actual draft has occurred, so we don't need to conjecture about player rankings.

A direct comparison is helpful, IMHO.

Further, I'm not sure you want to get into comparisions of past drafts, or your analyses of past drafts. For one, we no longer have McGloughan doing the drafting, or Nolan/Singletary looking over his shoulder on draft day.

Same goes for Baalke/Singletary. Not sure Baalke would have gone with two OL in the first round, or with Mays in the second, last year without Singletary's input.

So the focus is just on this year's draft. Truly, the biggest lack is no NT. Although that is of some concern, I am nevertheless intrigued by the Baalke/Harbaugh leadership and the amount of thought and planning they had to have put into this draft.

They could not have missed the NT issue, so they must have something else in mind.

As for the first round scenario you present, rumor has it that they were prepared to trade back with Atlanta, but it fell through. Maybe they tried to trade up to get Peterson, but I've never heard anyone confirm that.

Neither of those two possibilities means that Aldon Smith wasn't or isn't worth the #7 pick, or that the Niner's didn't get most, if not all the players they'd targeted.

So, rather than a grade--which is really meaningless--I prefer to consider the Niner's draft this year as intriguing and filled with potential. I consider your hypothetical draft to be interesting, but it does not contain overwhelming evidence that the Niners should have gone a different way. IMHO.

I don't understand how you can say that you are not interested in hypotheticals, since the nature of this thread is hypothetical: "If you could redo one of the 49ers picks..."

If I am re-doing the draft, I would go down a different path...period. No trade for CK, and the keeping of the 12 picks.

As for the idea that the previous regimes were far inferior in drafting players compared to this one, I'm not so sure that will turn out to be the case. Wasn't Singletary supposed to be superior to Nolan? Wasn't Scot supposed to be superior to Nolan having last calls on the draft? Just because they are newer does not automatically mean they are better.

I think you are jumping the gun to assume that the team will be much improved on draft days now that Baalke is in charge, especially since he was the head of scouting for years, and second to Scot as of last year. I tend to be skeptical that his opinion was bypassed, and that he was ignored by the top guys. Instead, I tend to believe a lot of these guys on the roster were strongly encouraged to be drafted by Trent.

As for my presumption that the guys in charge were blindsided by the two scenarios that did not play out: Peterson at 7, or the mega-trade with Atlanta, this falls into the lap of responsibility for Baalke. He is running the show, and he could have made an attractive enough offer to get something done if they found either move to be critically important. Obviously, they were willing to deal to get CK.

Plan C is usually far inferior to Plan A. Whether the team ends up paying a price in the end, or benefitting from the orginal plans going south, for the team to be stuck at 7 is problematic if they never planned to draft Aldon Smith at 7.

I am a little confused by picks.

#7 JJ Watt - you say he is BPA for Niners, but have him ranked at #18 in your big board. With Prince and Jimmy Smith still there, would those not be better selections at much higher position of need?

You must not be very high on the CK pick? Harbaugh obviously had CK targeted all along, since Gabbert was not an option for him.

Also funny that you have two starting rookie OL (for the second year in a row), assuming that Baas, HEitmann, and Rachal all are hurt or underperform.

In comparing your scenario to the actual picks:
-D is basically a wash. You don't pick a pass-rushing LB, but I am guessing you hope JJ Watt draws double teams to open holes for our current LB. CBs are speculation at this point and the rest was drafted for depth/camp fodder
-Niners get OL for the future, but will likely struggle in their rookie campaign.

Your scenario seems like building for 2012, assuming Smith is going to struggle and net us a top 10 pick. I doublt we get in the Luck sweepstakes, unless his draft stock plummets. I don't know much about next year's QB class, but you must feel much better about their projections...?

Originally posted by SJniner7:
I am a little confused by picks.

#7 JJ Watt - you say he is BPA for Niners, but have him ranked at #18 in your big board. With Prince and Jimmy Smith still there, would those not be better selections at much higher position of need?

You must not be very high on the CK pick? Harbaugh obviously had CK targeted all along, since Gabbert was not an option for him.

Also funny that you have two starting rookie OL (for the second year in a row), assuming that Baas, HEitmann, and Rachal all are hurt or underperform.

In comparing your scenario to the actual picks:
-D is basically a wash. You don't pick a pass-rushing LB, but I am guessing you hope JJ Watt draws double teams to open holes for our current LB. CBs are speculation at this point and the rest was drafted for depth/camp fodder
-Niners get OL for the future, but will likely struggle in their rookie campaign.

Your scenario seems like building for 2012, assuming Smith is going to struggle and net us a top 10 pick. I doublt we get in the Luck sweepstakes, unless his draft stock plummets. I don't know much about next year's QB class, but you must feel much better about their projections...?

Luck, Barkley and Landry Jones are much better than Newton, Gabbert, and Locker.

Im with you on the Watt question though, don't see how he was BPA at #7 for us.

Originally posted by SJniner7:
I am a little confused by picks.

#7 JJ Watt - you say he is BPA for Niners, but have him ranked at #18 in your big board. With Prince and Jimmy Smith still there, would those not be better selections at much higher position of need?

You must not be very high on the CK pick? Harbaugh obviously had CK targeted all along, since Gabbert was not an option for him.

Also funny that you have two starting rookie OL (for the second year in a row), assuming that Baas, HEitmann, and Rachal all are hurt or underperform.

In comparing your scenario to the actual picks:
-D is basically a wash. You don't pick a pass-rushing LB, but I am guessing you hope JJ Watt draws double teams to open holes for our current LB. CBs are speculation at this point and the rest was drafted for depth/camp fodder
-Niners get OL for the future, but will likely struggle in their rookie campaign.

Your scenario seems like building for 2012, assuming Smith is going to struggle and net us a top 10 pick. I doublt we get in the Luck sweepstakes, unless his draft stock plummets. I don't know much about next year's QB class, but you must feel much better about their projections...?

The Big Board was a projection of where I believed a player would be selected, not a Best Available board. For instance, I had Cam Newton number one on my Big Board since I believed he would be selected by Carolina, not the best player on my board.

I had CK rated as my fourth best QB, below Gabbert, Dalton and Newton. I think he has potential, but is really a raw prospect. Big upside potential, but a really risky pick.

I do have two new starters for the Niners on the OL in the next couole of years. I do not believe Rachal is going to work out, and Baas and Heitmann both had injury issues this year (Baas had two concussions, Heitmann had leg and neck issues).

To me, the 2011 season is a wash. The team is turning over coaches, schemes and personnel. The lockout only diminshes the team's chances of success. And, it appears Harbaugh is handing the keys to Smith this year as an experiment for the future. The new target year where fans should have expectations is 2012.

Finally, I would take any of the top three QB's in next year's draft over any of the QB's in this year's draft (if Luck, Landry and Barkley all come out). So, drafting a QB now does not make the most sense, especially in a year with inflationary prices for QB's and no time to learn the system and practice with players before the season begins.

As for the Watt selection, I fully expect Franklin to hit the free agency pavement, and the Niners will need to have a new DE to replace Soap, who should be moving to the middle.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by SJniner7:
I am a little confused by picks.

#7 JJ Watt - you say he is BPA for Niners, but have him ranked at #18 in your big board. With Prince and Jimmy Smith still there, would those not be better selections at much higher position of need?

You must not be very high on the CK pick? Harbaugh obviously had CK targeted all along, since Gabbert was not an option for him.

Also funny that you have two starting rookie OL (for the second year in a row), assuming that Baas, HEitmann, and Rachal all are hurt or underperform.

In comparing your scenario to the actual picks:
-D is basically a wash. You don't pick a pass-rushing LB, but I am guessing you hope JJ Watt draws double teams to open holes for our current LB. CBs are speculation at this point and the rest was drafted for depth/camp fodder
-Niners get OL for the future, but will likely struggle in their rookie campaign.

Your scenario seems like building for 2012, assuming Smith is going to struggle and net us a top 10 pick. I doublt we get in the Luck sweepstakes, unless his draft stock plummets. I don't know much about next year's QB class, but you must feel much better about their projections...?

The Big Board was a projection of where I believed a player would be selected, not a Best Available board. For instance, I had Cam Newton number one on my Big Board since I believed he would be selected by Carolina, not the best player on my board.

I had CK rated as my fourth best QB, below Gabbert, Dalton and Newton. I think he has potential, but is really a raw prospect. Big upside potential, but a really risky pick.

I do have two new starters for the Niners on the OL in the next couole of years. I do not believe Rachal is going to work out, and Baas and Heitmann both had injury issues this year (Baas had two concussions, Heitmann had leg and neck issues).

To me, the 2011 season is a wash. The team is turning over coaches, schemes and personnel. The lockout only diminshes the team's chances of success. And, it appears Harbaugh is handing the keys to Smith this year as an experiment for the future. The new target year where fans should have expectations is 2012.

Finally, I would take any of the top three QB's in next year's draft over any of the QB's in this year's draft (if Luck, Landry and Barkley all come out). So, drafting a QB now does not make the most sense, especially in a year with inflationary prices for QB's and no time to learn the system and practice with players before the season begins.

As for the Watt selection, I fully expect Franklin to hit the free agency pavement, and the Niners will need to have a new DE to replace Soap, who should be moving to the middle.

What are your views about moving RJF to DE? He has seen the speed of the game, and could make the transition. Is it an arm-length issue? He seemingly has the strength and tenacity to make the transition, in the beginning I imagine it would be like Soap in his first couple years at DE, not a big play maker but won't get pushed off the line.

Id have taken Kenrick Ellis over Culliver.

i would definitally be the minority on this but i wouldve rather had an NT (i forgot who but there was a good oene in the 2nd round) instead of kapernick then pick up stanzi later

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

The Big Board was a projection of where I believed a player would be selected, not a Best Available board. For instance, I had Cam Newton number one on my Big Board since I believed he would be selected by Carolina, not the best player on my board.

I had CK rated as my fourth best QB, below Gabbert, Dalton and Newton. I think he has potential, but is really a raw prospect. Big upside potential, but a really risky pick.

I do have two new starters for the Niners on the OL in the next couole of years. I do not believe Rachal is going to work out, and Baas and Heitmann both had injury issues this year (Baas had two concussions, Heitmann had leg and neck issues).

To me, the 2011 season is a wash. The team is turning over coaches, schemes and personnel. The lockout only diminshes the team's chances of success. And, it appears Harbaugh is handing the keys to Smith this year as an experiment for the future. The new target year where fans should have expectations is 2012.

Finally, I would take any of the top three QB's in next year's draft over any of the QB's in this year's draft (if Luck, Landry and Barkley all come out). So, drafting a QB now does not make the most sense, especially in a year with inflationary prices for QB's and no time to learn the system and practice with players before the season begins.

As for the Watt selection, I fully expect Franklin to hit the free agency pavement, and the Niners will need to have a new DE to replace Soap, who should be moving to the middle.

If this lockout goes into August, like we are all beginning to believe, then 2011 is definitely a wash. Harbaugh would probably still nab a QB high if he felt really good about them.

Our first 3 picks did address our needs, versus yours address BPA. Yours are definitely safer picks, but we would still need to address the OLB and QB position in 2012. There are question marks around our 1-3 round picks this year, so it is understandable that we may be in a bad spot once this year is over, possibly needing a redo...

Maybe we do bad and still pick up a QB high next year. Wouldn't it be great if Colin looks good, but Harbaugh just can't pass on a top prospect QB, then we have two good QB's? One would be needing a new home for a very good price?

It will be interesting to see if Barkley, Landry and Luck continue their assent to the top or fall due to a poor 2011 season.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I'd re-do all of the Niners picks. These are the players I would have selected based on my board and team need (unfortunately excluding trades...I would have moved up to select Peterson..even if the cost was high). In having no trades, note the extra selection. I would have bypassed selecting a QB early.

Also, I strictly go by a no-cheating clause that does not look at how far a specific player mysteriously fell and selecting him in a later round before the real team selection.

1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.

2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State
I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.

3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.

4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn
I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.

4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU
Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.

5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech
The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.

6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa
A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.

6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond
Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.

6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi
Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.

7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St
Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.

7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St
Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.

7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St
Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

Cheers.

Glad you weren't in charge of things.

I would have took Quinn with the first pick, I still believe he is gonna be a better pass rusher then Smith.

i would have taken a NT somewhere in the middle rounds, basically any pick besides the Hunter pick

Replace Chris Culliver with Davon House.