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The Case to Draft Plug and Play Draftees in 2011

The NFLPA is beginning its argument today before a federal judge, and it should be interesting to see if the owners' lockout will be allowed by the government. Knowing the history of labor squabbles, more than likely the players are going to lose this argument, and the impasse will continue far into the summer.

With this in mind, I think the Niners may be best served to target plug and play draftees in 2011, even if their ceiling is not as high as other players. As we have seen in most cases throughout the years, rookies who are delayed getting into camp due to contract issues or injuries struggle their rookie year in the NFL, and many, if not most, are not able to recover to become highly productive pros. My premise is based on analyzing these scenarios, not on data analysis (if someone wants to run numbers, please be my guest).

With an indefinite timetable before this labor situation is resolved, draftees can respond in many different ways. My guess is that mature, well-grounded, disciplined, intelligent, and experienced players will stay in top shape, train, and even watch tape during the dog days of summer, and will be somewhat prepared for the start of the 2011 season. Meanwhile, many players will sit on their butt, get out of shape, get in trouble with the law, and be completely unprepared when the veil is lifted. In other words, we could see a lot of busts from this draft class.

With this incredibly wordy start, it may be best that the Niners, in this extraordinary year, select players such as Prince Amakumara, a team captain who you know is going to be reliable, and ready to play right away. He may never be spectacular, but he will be in shape, mentally ready, and will carry a low bust probability. Going further, the Niners could stay in that same frame of mind, and draft another team captain, and person who loves the game, Kentucky's Randall Cobb, at 45, and completely bypass the QB chaos of 2011. Carrying this further, if he drops into their laps at 76, Penn State guard/center Stefen Wisniewski, is a team captain, Academic All-American, and well-grounded, having dad and uncle as former NFL players.

None of these three above players may be the athlete/player we would draft in a normal year, with mini-camps, OTA's and training camps that tend to keep players in good shape and sharp-minded. However, this may be the year the Niners play conservative in their draft selection, and select intelligent, disciplined players who are ready to go when the first whistle sounds. It may not be the sexiest of selections, but in a strange and wacky year, playing it safe may be the best option.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Apr 6, 2011 at 9:23 AM ]
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I've wanted Prince from the get go unless a Crabtree like fall happens to some top prospect. Ponder is a guy I wouldn't worry about because he's been battling/ rehabbing his whole college career.
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I got this feeling that if Peterson is off the board at #7 it will be Prince. I know I've been a critic of him in the past, but he really does have all the tools to be a successful CB in the NFL.
saw a snippet of his interview on "game changers"... highly impressive young man, articulate, intelligent, poised.
Cornerback is a significant need. If people want to argue Peterson versus Prince, I can see that perspective. But the combination of on the field skills and the quality of the person makes Prince a solid value at that spot. If the Niners could trade down and still get him, I'd be fine with that. But with all of the teams with needs in their secondary, I think Prince in the pick.

The only other player that I am really interested in is Phil Taylor. I don't see him as a good value at #7 though. IF the Niners were able to trade down, they could try to get Prince later, or if he was gone, they could go take Taylor as the consolation prize.
I don't know if you want to be short sighted. I think you always should go BPA regarless what the labor situation looks like.

I also think the division plays a role in this: we can still compete in a weak division while going through a transition phase.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The NFLPA is beginning its argument today before a federal judge, and it should be interesting to see if the owners' lockout will be allowed by the government. Knowing the history of labor squabbles, more than likely the players are going to lose this argument, and the impasse will continue far into the summer.

With this in mind, I think the Niners may be best served to target plug and play draftees in 2011, even if their ceiling is not as high as other players. As we have seen in most cases throughout the years, rookies who are delayed getting into camp due to contract issues or injuries struggle their rookie year in the NFL, and many, if not most, are not able to recover to become highly productive pros. My premise is based on analyzing these scenarios, not on data analysis (if someone wants to run numbers, please be my guest).

With an indefinite timetable before this labor situation is resolved, draftees can respond in many different ways. My guess is that mature, well-grounded, disciplined, intelligent, and experienced players will stay in top shape, train, and even watch tape during the dog days of summer, and will be somewhat prepared for the start of the 2011 season. Meanwhile, many players will sit on their butt, get out of shape, get in trouble with the law, and be completely unprepared when the veil is lifted. In other words, we could see a lot of busts from this draft class.

With this incredibly wordy start, it may be best that the Niners, in this extraordinary year, select players such as Prince Amakumara, a team captain who you know is going to be reliable, and ready to play right away. He may never be spectacular, but he will be in shape, mentally ready, and will carry a low bust probability. Going further, the Niners could stay in that same frame of mind, and draft another team captain, and person who loves the game, Kentucky's Randall Cobb, at 45, and completely bypass the QB chaos of 2011. Carrying this further, if he drops into their laps at 76, Penn State guard/center Stefen Wisniewski, is a team captain, Academic All-American, and well-grounded, having dad and uncle as former NFL players.

None of these three above players may be the athlete/player we would draft in a normal year, with mini-camps, OTA's and training camps that tend to keep players in good shape and sharp-minded. However, this may be the year the Niners play conservative in their draft selection, and select intelligent, disciplined players who are ready to go when the first whistle sounds. It may not be the sexiest of selections, but in a strange and wacky year, playing it safe may be the best option.

2 MAIN reasons why he fits that criteria

1. He's African (which means he's not lazy and is a very hard worker)
2. He's Christian (which means he's all about hard work and dedication)

PRINCE...........c'mon DOWN!!!!!!!

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The NFLPA is beginning its argument today before a federal judge, and it should be interesting to see if the owners' lockout will be allowed by the government. Knowing the history of labor squabbles, more than likely the players are going to lose this argument, and the impasse will continue far into the summer.

With this in mind, I think the Niners may be best served to target plug and play draftees in 2011, even if their ceiling is not as high as other players. As we have seen in most cases throughout the years, rookies who are delayed getting into camp due to contract issues or injuries struggle their rookie year in the NFL, and many, if not most, are not able to recover to become highly productive pros. My premise is based on analyzing these scenarios, not on data analysis (if someone wants to run numbers, please be my guest).

With an indefinite timetable before this labor situation is resolved, draftees can respond in many different ways. My guess is that mature, well-grounded, disciplined, intelligent, and experienced players will stay in top shape, train, and even watch tape during the dog days of summer, and will be somewhat prepared for the start of the 2011 season. Meanwhile, many players will sit on their butt, get out of shape, get in trouble with the law, and be completely unprepared when the veil is lifted. In other words, we could see a lot of busts from this draft class.

With this incredibly wordy start, it may be best that the Niners, in this extraordinary year, select players such as Prince Amakumara, a team captain who you know is going to be reliable, and ready to play right away. He may never be spectacular, but he will be in shape, mentally ready, and will carry a low bust probability. Going further, the Niners could stay in that same frame of mind, and draft another team captain, and person who loves the game, Kentucky's Randall Cobb, at 45, and completely bypass the QB chaos of 2011. Carrying this further, if he drops into their laps at 76, Penn State guard/center Stefen Wisniewski, is a team captain, Academic All-American, and well-grounded, having dad and uncle as former NFL players.

None of these three above players may be the athlete/player we would draft in a normal year, with mini-camps, OTA's and training camps that tend to keep players in good shape and sharp-minded. However, this may be the year the Niners play conservative in their draft selection, and select intelligent, disciplined players who are ready to go when the first whistle sounds. It may not be the sexiest of selections, but in a strange and wacky year, playing it safe may be the best option.

Good read MD 20/20,but it seems to me your line of reasoning also applys to Veteran players as well. Every team from top to bottom uses the offseason to prepare for the upcoming season. If and when this season begins,[my guess is late Sept] the teams that are in the best shape both physically and mentally will have a leg up. IMO as all the teams are afffected by the lock out equally,[in theory at least] things will tend to even itself out in the early part of the season. I still lean towards a PBA line of thought, And Prince is still in that picture too. High character players are most always good bets.
[ Edited by highway49 on Apr 6, 2011 at 11:11 AM ]
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Originally posted by TlSSER:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The NFLPA is beginning its argument today before a federal judge, and it should be interesting to see if the owners' lockout will be allowed by the government. Knowing the history of labor squabbles, more than likely the players are going to lose this argument, and the impasse will continue far into the summer.

With this in mind, I think the Niners may be best served to target plug and play draftees in 2011, even if their ceiling is not as high as other players. As we have seen in most cases throughout the years, rookies who are delayed getting into camp due to contract issues or injuries struggle their rookie year in the NFL, and many, if not most, are not able to recover to become highly productive pros. My premise is based on analyzing these scenarios, not on data analysis (if someone wants to run numbers, please be my guest).

With an indefinite timetable before this labor situation is resolved, draftees can respond in many different ways. My guess is that mature, well-grounded, disciplined, intelligent, and experienced players will stay in top shape, train, and even watch tape during the dog days of summer, and will be somewhat prepared for the start of the 2011 season. Meanwhile, many players will sit on their butt, get out of shape, get in trouble with the law, and be completely unprepared when the veil is lifted. In other words, we could see a lot of busts from this draft class.

With this incredibly wordy start, it may be best that the Niners, in this extraordinary year, select players such as Prince Amakumara, a team captain who you know is going to be reliable, and ready to play right away. He may never be spectacular, but he will be in shape, mentally ready, and will carry a low bust probability. Going further, the Niners could stay in that same frame of mind, and draft another team captain, and person who loves the game, Kentucky's Randall Cobb, at 45, and completely bypass the QB chaos of 2011. Carrying this further, if he drops into their laps at 76, Penn State guard/center Stefen Wisniewski, is a team captain, Academic All-American, and well-grounded, having dad and uncle as former NFL players.

None of these three above players may be the athlete/player we would draft in a normal year, with mini-camps, OTA's and training camps that tend to keep players in good shape and sharp-minded. However, this may be the year the Niners play conservative in their draft selection, and select intelligent, disciplined players who are ready to go when the first whistle sounds. It may not be the sexiest of selections, but in a strange and wacky year, playing it safe may be the best option.

2 MAIN reasons why he fits that criteria

1. He's African (which means he's not lazy and is a very hard worker)
2. He's Christian (which means he's all about hard work and dedication)

PRINCE...........c'mon DOWN!!!!!!!


And he's a PRINCE!!! That is way too cool to pass up!
[ Edited by SourdoughDan on Apr 6, 2011 at 11:11 AM ]
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The NFLPA is beginning its argument today before a federal judge, and it should be interesting to see if the owners' lockout will be allowed by the government. Knowing the history of labor squabbles, more than likely the players are going to lose this argument, and the impasse will continue far into the summer.

With this in mind, I think the Niners may be best served to target plug and play draftees in 2011, even if their ceiling is not as high as other players. As we have seen in most cases throughout the years, rookies who are delayed getting into camp due to contract issues or injuries struggle their rookie year in the NFL, and many, if not most, are not able to recover to become highly productive pros. My premise is based on analyzing these scenarios, not on data analysis (if someone wants to run numbers, please be my guest).

With an indefinite timetable before this labor situation is resolved, draftees can respond in many different ways. My guess is that mature, well-grounded, disciplined, intelligent, and experienced players will stay in top shape, train, and even watch tape during the dog days of summer, and will be somewhat prepared for the start of the 2011 season. Meanwhile, many players will sit on their butt, get out of shape, get in trouble with the law, and be completely unprepared when the veil is lifted. In other words, we could see a lot of busts from this draft class.

With this incredibly wordy start, it may be best that the Niners, in this extraordinary year, select players such as Prince Amakumara, a team captain who you know is going to be reliable, and ready to play right away. He may never be spectacular, but he will be in shape, mentally ready, and will carry a low bust probability. Going further, the Niners could stay in that same frame of mind, and draft another team captain, and person who loves the game, Kentucky's Randall Cobb, at 45, and completely bypass the QB chaos of 2011. Carrying this further, if he drops into their laps at 76, Penn State guard/center Stefen Wisniewski, is a team captain, Academic All-American, and well-grounded, having dad and uncle as former NFL players.

None of these three above players may be the athlete/player we would draft in a normal year, with mini-camps, OTA's and training camps that tend to keep players in good shape and sharp-minded. However, this may be the year the Niners play conservative in their draft selection, and select intelligent, disciplined players who are ready to go when the first whistle sounds. It may not be the sexiest of selections, but in a strange and wacky year, playing it safe may be the best option.

Why do you think the players are going to lose?

I think the judge will order mandatory arbitration--and the NFL will have to open its books. If no settlement is in two weeks, she will stop the lockout.

The court of appeals will uphold her decision--and the Supreme Court will fefuse to hear the case.

The season will start late, but it will happen.
M/D. 1. That should be the premise every year. Good Citizens will make better teams and players. 2. We can draft but cannot sign. If I were an agent I would make sure my clients were doing all the right things to prepare them for the season. If I'm Balke I will hire investigators to monitor the behavior of the draftees and use that information in the contract negotiations. We may not be able to talk to the draftee but their agent should be open season. Hold the agent accountable. One may want to factor in agent relationships when making a drafting decision this year.
My take on the plug-and-play scenario is that there will be a very compressed TC period of about 10 days to 2 weeks, with no exhibition games, and with the season startring in Week 5 (about Oct 1).

As it affects the draft, this will NOT be the year to highly value a player, who will need to play a different position (example, DE to OLB). Nor weill it be a good year, to highkly valuye a player, who needs a major adjustment at his own position (for example, a QB going from a spread offense to the PRO set). There just won't be enough time or reps to accomplish such major undertakings.

On the other hand, players who have experience at there position, which translates directly to the NFL, might be MORE highly valued (for example, a CB, RB, or DL).
Originally posted by Schulzy:
I don't know if you want to be short sighted. I think you always should go BPA regarless what the labor situation looks like.

I also think the division plays a role in this: we can still compete in a weak division while going through a transition phase.

This.

Don't mortgage/compromise the future for the short term fix.
I think we plan on picking two guys who already fit that bill. Amukamara (as mentioned) and Andy Dalton.
I would LOVE Prince. Im trying to warm myself on Dalton in the 2nd. I trust Harbaugh though.

Peterson or Prince or Miller at 7