Holy moly, Batman! We have a slim chance to pick at #2.

I don't want to lose to Arizona. But if we do, we would possibly pick second in the draft behind Carolina as all the other teams in front right now could possibly win.

Again, I don't want to lose nor am I wishing my team to. I just find it fascinating that we have that possibility. Either way, we are assured a top ten pick win or lose now.

Whew!

We pick fifth right now. Unbelievable.

[ Edited by ninertico on Dec 27, 2010 at 00:02:55 ]

but if there is a log jam at 5-11 how would they determine picks?

That would be good for us...

it says if there is a tie in record draft status is determined by strength of schedule.

lol no.
Broncos will not beat SD
Cinci will not beat Baltimore.

even if we tied teams at 5-11 our strength of schedule is so weak this year we would still be in the 5-8 range: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/21479/2010-strength-of-schedule

If and big if we lose, we would stand to gain a top five pick at least it seems. If we win we will be in the top ten still at nine I would guess.

I just don't see us being able to pry Carolina's hold on #1 which means Luck. Instead, we would have to deal with Mallett and Newton as we thought for our QB choices in the first.

Nice to have a chance at #2 though.

Originally posted by TheLumi:
lol no.
Broncos will not beat SD
Cinci will not beat Baltimore.

1.) It's ok if Denver loses; they won't be picking a QB (which we likely will)
2.) Baltimore is in, and may not play their starters...I like Cincy's chances (they go to 5-10)
3.) Buffalo plays the Jets; NY might not play their starters either (Bills go to 5-10)

Say Denver loses, the Bills and Bengals win and we lose to the Tards:

Draft order:

1.) Carolina - 2-14
--Andrew Luck, QB

2.) Denver - 4-12
--Patrick Peterson, DB OR A.J. Green, WR

3.) 49ers - 5-11 (weakest SOS among 5 win teams)
--A.J. Green, WR, OR Ryan Mallett, QB OR Cameron Newton, QB OR Prince Amukamara, CB


NOTE: To move up to the #1 spot from #3 would only take our #1 overall, our 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder. So if we wanted to trade with CAR, and they were open to passing on Luck (highly doubtful), our draft would look like this:

Round 1 - Andrew Luck, QB
Round 2 - *traded to CAR*
Round 3 - *traded to CAR*
Round 4 - pick
Round 4 - pick (extra pick acquired)
Round 5 - pick
Round 6 - pick
Round 6 - pick (from SEA for Balmer)
Round 7 - pick
Round 7 - pick (from DET for Hill)

So we'd get our QB of the future and still have 7 picks to work with (not even counting comp picks) to help re-stock the roster.

[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Dec 27, 2010 at 00:50:41 ]

With the tiebreaker being strength of schedule, the most likely draft order is:

1) Carolina 2-14
2) Denver 4-12 L vs. SD
3) Cincinnati 4-12 L @BAL
4) Buffalo 4-12 L @NYJ
5) Arizona 5-11
6) Dallas 5-11 L @PHI
7) Minnesota 5-11
8) Cleveland 5-11 L vs. PIT
9) SF 49ers 6-10
10) Seattle 6-10
11) Houston 6-10 W vs. JAX
12) Tennessee 6-10
13) Washington 6-10
14) Detroit 6-10

SOS: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl10.htm

It doesn't matter what TEN, WAS and MIN/DET (playing each other next week) do, as their strength of schedules will remain tougher than the 49ers'. Seattle's SOS should be tougher than the 49ers' after next week. If Arizona wins, the 49ers will do no worse than #5, but I won't root for them to lose.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by TheLumi:
lol no.
Broncos will not beat SD
Cinci will not beat Baltimore.

1.) It's ok if Denver loses; they won't be picking a QB (which we likely will)
2.) Baltimore is in, and may not play their starters...I like Cincy's chances (they go to 5-10)
3.) Buffalo plays the Jets; NY might not play their starters either (Bills go to 5-10)

Say Denver loses, the Bills and Bengals win and we lose to the Tards:

Draft order:

1.) Carolina - 2-14
--Andrew Luck, QB

2.) Denver - 4-12
--Patrick Peterson, DB OR A.J. Green, WR

3.) 49ers - 5-11 (weakest SOS among 5 win teams)
--A.J. Green, WR, OR Ryan Mallett, QB OR Cameron Newton, QB OR Prince Amukamara, CB


NOTE: To move up to the #1 spot from #3 would only take our #1 overall, our 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder. So if we wanted to trade with CAR, and they were open to passing on Luck (highly doubtful), our draft would look like this:

Round 1 - Andrew Luck, QB
Round 2 - *traded to CAR*
Round 3 - *traded to CAR*
Round 4 - pick
Round 4 - pick (extra pick acquired)
Round 5 - pick
Round 6 - pick
Round 6 - pick (from SEA for Balmer)
Round 7 - pick
Round 7 - pick (from DET for Hill)

So we'd get our QB of the future and still have 7 picks to work with (not even counting comp picks) to help re-stock the roster.

THIS is the kind of offseason optimism THAT I'M TALKIN ABOUT!

QUALITY POST - I approve this message

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by TheLumi:
lol no.
Broncos will not beat SD
Cinci will not beat Baltimore.

1.) It's ok if Denver loses; they won't be picking a QB (which we likely will)
2.) Baltimore is in, and may not play their starters...I like Cincy's chances (they go to 5-10)
3.) Buffalo plays the Jets; NY might not play their starters either (Bills go to 5-10)

Say Denver loses, the Bills and Bengals win and we lose to the Tards:

Draft order:

1.) Carolina - 2-14
--Andrew Luck, QB

2.) Denver - 4-12
--Patrick Peterson, DB OR A.J. Green, WR

3.) 49ers - 5-11 (weakest SOS among 5 win teams)
--A.J. Green, WR, OR Ryan Mallett, QB OR Cameron Newton, QB OR Prince Amukamara, CB


NOTE: To move up to the #1 spot from #3 would only take our #1 overall, our 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder. So if we wanted to trade with CAR, and they were open to passing on Luck (highly doubtful), our draft would look like this:

Round 1 - Andrew Luck, QB
Round 2 - *traded to CAR*
Round 3 - *traded to CAR*
Round 4 - pick
Round 4 - pick (extra pick acquired)
Round 5 - pick
Round 6 - pick
Round 6 - pick (from SEA for Balmer)
Round 7 - pick
Round 7 - pick (from DET for Hill)

So we'd get our QB of the future and still have 7 picks to work with (not even counting comp picks) to help re-stock the roster.

Good post. The only disagreement I have with this is the Ravens game next week. If I recall correctly, they are still playing for the division and a first round bye. Depending on how the flex schedule plays out, if they win and the Steelers somehow lose to the Browns, then they get a first round bye. I honestly wouldn't discount the Browns either, they've played tough this year.

It'll be interesting how they schedule the games next weekend. If the Ravens are the early game then I highly doubt they'll be resting their starters. The Steelers can potentially fall all the way to the 6th seed if they lose and the Jets and Ravens win. So i don't think the Jets, Ravens or Steelers rest their starters next week. It all depends on the flex scheduling. The only team I can see resting their starters next week would be the Jets because all they can do is move up to 5 right now.

Originally posted by global_nomad:
even if we tied teams at 5-11 our strength of schedule is so weak this year we would still be in the 5-8 range: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/21479/2010-strength-of-schedule

That's preseason strength of schedule...almost worthless.

I think we'll probably win, the players will want to just to spite Singletary. But interesting possibilities regardless, and I'm glad we're assured a top 10 pick no matter what at this point.

Originally posted by thedude:
I think we'll probably win, the players will want to just to spite Singletary. But interesting possibilities regardless, and I'm glad we're assured a top 10 pick no matter what at this point.

We could pick 11th if:

- Seattle loses to STL
- GB Beats CHI
- Giants and Eagles both win
- Seattle wins the tie-breaker coin-toss with us

I hate to loose. We need to end the season the right way and see what Nate Davis has. That said. I want a top 5 pick with the abortion of a season that this has been.