Nick's Final Mock Draft (Full 1st Round)
Notes: The top 4 OTs are all gone at #13, as well as Dan Williams and Joe Haden, so the 49ers take S Earl Thomas at the Best Player Available. At #17, they get themselves into a position where they need to trade down, reach for a player of need, or take the best player availalble. Although I think they would trade down, I don't have any trades in my mock so they take the guy that is by far the best player available at #17, Dez Bryant.
Other interesting items from my mock: Tebow goes to MIN at #30, Brandon Graham slips out of the first round because nobody knows exactly where he'll fit (and his similarities to Groves and other busts), and Nate Allen makes it into the 1st round.
1. St. Louis - QB Bradford - Franchise QB, no explaination needed
2. Detroit - DT Suh - When it is all said and done, Detroit concluded that Suh + the Best tackle available at #34 is better than Okung + the best DT available at #34 (Price, Odrick, Joseph)
3. Tampa Bay - DR McCoy - No-brainer here; biggest need, BPA
4. Washington - OT Trent Williams - A little bit of a surprise here, but I've been seeing for weeks that the Redskins have Williams rated higher than Okung. Williams, reportedly, is better suited for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme AND has a higher ceiling than Okung (but a lower floor).
5. Kansas City - OT Okung - Easy choice here; Okung is the best player available and fills one of KC's 2 major needs (OT, Secondary)
6. Seattle - S Eric Berry - Best player available
7. Cleveland - RB CJ Spiller - the worst offense in the NFL needs a spark, and CJ is it; would have went w/ Berry if he were still on the board
8. Oakland - OT Anthony Davis - Everybody expects Oakland to make a stupid move here, but I don't. Davis is a fantastic tackle, and would have been the #1 OT off the board if it weren't for character issues...the Raiders don't care about that.
9. Buffalo - OT Brian Bulaga - Some may be shocked that they don't go with Clausen, but OT is huge huge need for them, especially after losing both starting OTs prior to the start of the '09 season. They decide to pass on Clausen because they don't expect to be a playoff team this year and the 2011 class is stacked.
10. Jacksonville - CB Joe Haden - They need help in the secondary, and Haden provides it. Could go with DE Morgan or S Thomas here, but go with the safer pick.
11. Denver - LB McClain - A lot of people expect the Broncos to replace Marshall with Bryant, but that is not what McDaniels wants to do -- why would he want to replace a character issue guy with a character issue guy??? They have much bigger needs, none bigger than ILB. McDaniels has 2 #2s next year, which should provide him w/ enough ammo to get a QB if Orton AND Quinn fail, so Clausen isn't an option.
12. Miami - DT Dan Williams - Biggest need here; they could go with pass rusher instead, but NTs are harder to come by.
13. San Francisco - S Earl Thomas - Best Player available; move pushes Goldson to SS, where he may be better suited (big hitter, excellent vs. the run). Thomas gives the 49ers strength over the top, a position where they were weak in 2009.
14. Seattle - QB Jimmy Clausen - Pete Carroll is ectatic that he was able to get Clausen at #14 instead of #6; Carroll wanted Clausen out of HS, and is a big fan. Charlie Whitehurst is not the long-term answer at QB, at best he is the spot starter if Hasselbeck goes down in 2010. Clausen will have the opportunity to sit for an entire year before competing for the position in 2011.
15. New York Giants - LB Sean Witherspoon - The Giants LB Corps is a joke...Witherspoon is a perfect fit for the 4-3, as he can play any of the 4-3 LB spots
16. Tennessee - DE Derrick Morgan - biggest need for the Titans, and they get a guy who could have gone in the Top 10.
17. San Francisco - WR Dez Bryant - I must caveat this pick in saying that I think the 49ers would find a way to trade down here if the Top 16 unfolded this way, even if it means taking a little bit less in a trade. The reason is that almost every other pick the 49ers could make here is a reach. Iupati and Pouncey could go here, but both of them are interior linemen, neither of which have proven they can play OT. We could also take a pass-rusher, but Kindle is a boom-bust project that could end up going in the 2nd round. I know there are a lot of man crushes on DE Graham, but the fact is that he has to prove he can play as a 3-4 end as well, and his value might be a little further down the line -- Kyle Wilson is also a reach here. Now, back to Dez -- the 49ers probably have him as a Top 5 guy on the draft board, even though it is not one of their needs. We picked up Ginn, but he will be a return specialist and occasional slot WR; Morgan is not a legit #2...With Crabtree, Bryant, Davis, Gore, and Morgan/Ginn in the slot, the 49ers offense threatens to be one of the more explosive in the NFL. If the 49ers wanted to trade down, New England could be a good candidate to trade with: NE could take Dez and we would send them the #17 and #79 for the #22 and #53. At #22 we would take Iupati, Puncey, Charles Brown, Kyle Wilson, Graham, etc..
18. Pittsburgh - OG/C Mike Iupati - Steelers take a guy that can play on the interior line for the next 10 years.
19. Atlanta - DE Jason Pierre-Paul - Abraham is aging quickly, and Anderson appears to be a gue bust. Pierre-Paul brings athleticism to the end position that will help them generate a pass rush.
20. Houston - CB Kyle Wilson - No-Brainer here; They lost Dunta to the Falcons and Wilson is a similar player, with the added ability to make plays on ST.
21. Cincinnati - TE Jermaine Gresham - Haven't had a quality tight end in a long, long time. Would take Dez if he's here
22. New England - OLB Sergio Kindle - Kindle may ba one-trick Pony (pass rush), but that is the Patriots' #1 Need.
23. Green Bay - OT Charles Brown - The Packers have a big need for a OT that can pass-block, and they are also a zone blocking team. Enter Charles Brown. This is a case of the right guy falling to the right team -- perfect match.
24. Philadelphia - C Maurkice Pouncey - Philly needs a pass rusher and an interior lineman, but their biggest need may be a guy that can play Center on Opening day in 2010 -- their center suffered a major knee injury last year and won't be ready for '10
25. Baltimore - CB Devin McCourty - Major need for the Ravens.
26. Arizona - DE/OLB Jerry Hughes - 'Zona needs help off the edge, and Hughes is a prototype 3-4 rusher -- they pass on Graham because they're not sure whether he fits the 3-4.
27. Dallas - S Nate Allen - The Cowboys badly need help over the top at FS, and Nate Allen gets the job done. Could go w/ Taylor Mays, but he's weak in deep coverage.
28. San Diego - NT Terrence Cody - San Diego finds a big, big, big replacement for Jamaal williams
29. New York Jets - DE/DT Jared Odrick - Jets pick up a man who can play the 3-4 end. Big enough frame that he may get big enough to play the nose someday.
30. Minnesota - QB Tim Tebow - Don't be shocked. The Vikes need a QB to replace Favre in 2011, and they can get Tebow here, let him work on his mechanics for a year, and learn from one of the all-time greats. Tavaris Jackson could still start in '11 if Tebow is not ready. In the meantime, Tebow could be utilized at the H-back
31. Indianapolis - DT Brian Price - Good fit for a team with few holes.
32. New Orleans - DE Carlos Dunlap - The defending SB Champs can affod to take a risk.
[ Edited by nickbradley on Apr 19, 2010 at 8:00 AM ]