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The first 6 picks of the draft determine everything

I think that the top 6 picks in the draft will dictate how the rest of the draft will go.

1. STL - Its pretty obvious that STL will go with Bradford; they've passed on franchise QBs 2 years in a row now.
2. DET - Huge question mark; the smart move would be Okung to protect Stafford and the $42m investment in him, but their defense is awful too. Their team is so bad that they need to trade down to rebuild
3. TB - Going to take one of the two DTs...Dez Bryant could be a sleeper pick if he has a good visit to Tampa
4. WAS - Another huge question mark; they really need an OT, but how can they pass on Clausen?

So there are a few different ways this thing can pan out
Scenario 1: Bradford/Okung/Suh/Clausen - This is the most likely scenario; The Chiefs would be forced to pick between reaching for an OT, reaching for McClain, or reaching for Berry. Trade-down is likely. If they reach for an OT here, a run on offensive tackles will ensue...bad for us.
Scenario 2: Bradford/Suh/McCoy/Clausen - Best situation for us; the run on OTs is delayed, and we may be able to swing a deal w/ KC for Okung. SEA would take the best player available, which is probably Berry. With Berry gone, the Browns are forced to reach for somebody: Haden, Spiller, pass-rusher.
Scenario 3: Bradford/suh/McCoy/Okung - Somebody trades up for Clausen at #5, Seattle takes BPA, Browns get screwed (unless they traded up for Clausen).
Scenario 4: Bradford/Okung/Suh/Bulaga - Big run on OTs, somebody trades up for Clausen, Seattle takes BPA

So after the top 4 picks are set, the Chiefs reach a decision point if Okung is NOT there: reach for a player or trade down. And based on that decision, Seattle will have to take the best player available

The Chiefs could also reach for Berry, changing the dynamics of the draft; Seattle could take Clausen, reach for an OT, or take a playmaker like Spiller or Dez Bryant.

What's in the best scenario for the 49ers, however, is for the run on OTs to be delayed as long as possible. This will happen if Okung falls to #5.

Worst-case scenario for the 49ers if 2 OTs go in the Top 4; Williams, Davis, and maybe even Campbell will all be gone before #13. We would have to take a playmaker at 13 and reach for brown at 17 -- maybe take Iupati.
I would say what Stl, Wash, Cle, and Sea do will be the biggest determining factors.
what the hell happened so Suh? A couple months ago, he was the sure #1 pick.
I always love these mocks, but inevitably there will be a trade or two that blows everything I've read for the last month+ out of the water. This should be a very fun draft, especially for Niner fans.
Originally posted by SybErkRimInAL:
what the hell happened so Suh? A couple months ago, he was the sure #1 pick.

DT's don't win championships....QB's do.

Not to mention they have drafted a few D Linemen the past few years.
I think we will end up with Haden or Trent Williams with our 1st pick. The 2nd pick is a complete tossup IMO. Could be Iupati, Charles Brown, Brandon Graham or even a wildcard like Jared Odrick or Jason Pierre-Paul if he falls.
Originally posted by ramanz16:
I always love these mocks, but inevitably there will be a trade or two that blows everything I've read for the last month+ out of the water. This should be a very fun draft, especially for Niner fans.

i hope you're right man. We better not draft another Balmer.
Originally posted by jreff22:
I would say what Stl, Wash, Cle, and Sea do will be the biggest determining factors.

I think STL is a 'lock' to take Bradford now that his shoulder checks out.

Also, Detroit is still a question mark. Do they make the smart move and take Okung, or do they go with their gut and take Suh the one-year wonder? I expect idiocy to trump logic in Detroit.

Agree on WAS and SEA, but KC is a big mystery too. Pioli doesn't like to draft OTs very high, but will if Okung falls. But if he's not there, what do they do? Trade down, I suspect -- too many holes...they need more picks.

And on Seattle, their strategy isn't too complicated: best player available. Whether its McCoy, Berry, Spiller, or Bryant, they will take the guy at the top of their board.
Originally posted by PatrickJira411:
I think we will end up with Haden or Trent Williams with our 1st pick. The 2nd pick is a complete tossup IMO. Could be Iupati, Charles Brown, Brandon Graham or even a wildcard like Jared Odrick or Jason Pierre-Paul if he falls.

If Trent Williams is there, we take him (no-brainer). But I don't think he will be. As a result, I think we go BPA at 13 and take Iupati or Brown at 17.

This is a strange year because it is so deep. Last year, I knew that the best possible scenario for the 49ers is if Crabtree or Raji fell to them at #10. And once Oakland took the greatest bust of all time, we were a lock to get one of the two.

But this year, I don't know what scenario to root for. I like Trent Williams, but I have my doubts. I guess I'm rooting for Haden, Dez, Williams, Earl Thomas, and McClain to ALL be there at 13. That way, we're guaranteed to get at least TWO of those players in the 1st round. If all those guys are there, we can trade down and still be guaranteed one of them at 17 -- maybe still pick up brown or Iupati in the late 1st round.
Originally posted by SybErkRimInAL:
what the hell happened so Suh? A couple months ago, he was the sure #1 pick.


Suh is the best player but Bradford has the most value.
  • mayo49
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If Clausen gets past Cleveland at 7 then thats good news for us as the Bills at 9 will probably take him allowing another OT to fall. Also, if Seattle passes on an OT at 6 then that also means an OT falls to us.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by jreff22:
I would say what Stl, Wash, Cle, and Sea do will be the biggest determining factors.

I think STL is a 'lock' to take Bradford now that his shoulder checks out.

Also, Detroit is still a question mark. Do they make the smart move and take Okung, or do they go with their gut and take Suh the one-year wonder? I expect idiocy to trump logic in Detroit.

Agree on WAS and SEA, but KC is a big mystery too. Pioli doesn't like to draft OTs very high, but will if Okung falls. But if he's not there, what do they do? Trade down, I suspect -- too many holes...they need more picks.

And on Seattle, their strategy isn't too complicated: best player available. Whether its McCoy, Berry, Spiller, or Bryant, they will take the guy at the top of their board.


Unfortunately for us, Matt Millen is no longer the GM for the Lions. Schwartz and the front office are football people that no what they are doing. I see either Okung or a DT going to them.

The same can be said for Washington. Shanahan (who I am no fan of) and Bruce Allen are a far more formidable talent evaluation group than Jim Zorn and Vinny Cerrato. For one thing, they've been able to keep Dan Snyders checkbook closed for the first time in years. They will make a choice that makes sense for the franchise, and that could very well be an OT since there stalwart retired this season.

The days of having teams like Arizona, Cleveland, Detroit and the Raiders all making front end decisions are less likely now that qualified people (in most cases) have taken over the GM and coaching duties.
You can say this about any draft though.

To me, this year there is a huge pool of 2nd tier and 3rd tier players.

1st tier:
Bradford
Suh
McCoy
Berry
Clausen

2nd Tier:
Is arguably 20+ players

3rd Tier is the same way as the 2nd tier.

I'd be stoked if we can somehow get back into round 2 without losing either of our 1st round picks or a 1st rounder next year. That would be 4 picks in the top 60 picks.
Originally posted by SybErkRimInAL:
Originally posted by ramanz16:
I always love these mocks, but inevitably there will be a trade or two that blows everything I've read for the last month+ out of the water. This should be a very fun draft, especially for Niner fans.

i hope you're right man. We better not draft another Balmer.

I actually think he will be good. Hes a DE in a 3-4. Its not just god-given talent at that position. And we have 2 good players ahead of him in Smith and Soapaga
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I think that the top 6 picks in the draft will dictate how the rest of the draft will go.

1. STL - Its pretty obvious that STL will go with Bradford; they've passed on franchise QBs 2 years in a row now.
2. DET - Huge question mark; the smart move would be Okung to protect Stafford and the $42m investment in him, but their defense is awful too. Their team is so bad that they need to trade down to rebuild
3. TB - Going to take one of the two DTs...Dez Bryant could be a sleeper pick if he has a good visit to Tampa
4. WAS - Another huge question mark; they really need an OT, but how can they pass on Clausen?

So there are a few different ways this thing can pan out
Scenario 1: Bradford/Okung/Suh/Clausen - This is the most likely scenario; The Chiefs would be forced to pick between reaching for an OT, reaching for McClain, or reaching for Berry. Trade-down is likely. If they reach for an OT here, a run on offensive tackles will ensue...bad for us.
Scenario 2: Bradford/Suh/McCoy/Clausen - Best situation for us; the run on OTs is delayed, and we may be able to swing a deal w/ KC for Okung. SEA would take the best player available, which is probably Berry. With Berry gone, the Browns are forced to reach for somebody: Haden, Spiller, pass-rusher.
Scenario 3: Bradford/suh/McCoy/Okung - Somebody trades up for Clausen at #5, Seattle takes BPA, Browns get screwed (unless they traded up for Clausen).
Scenario 4: Bradford/Okung/Suh/Bulaga - Big run on OTs, somebody trades up for Clausen, Seattle takes BPA

So after the top 4 picks are set, the Chiefs reach a decision point if Okung is NOT there: reach for a player or trade down. And based on that decision, Seattle will have to take the best player available

The Chiefs could also reach for Berry, changing the dynamics of the draft; Seattle could take Clausen, reach for an OT, or take a playmaker like Spiller or Dez Bryant.

What's in the best scenario for the 49ers, however, is for the run on OTs to be delayed as long as possible. This will happen if Okung falls to #5.

Worst-case scenario for the 49ers if 2 OTs go in the Top 4; Williams, Davis, and maybe even Campbell will all be gone before #13. We would have to take a playmaker at 13 and reach for brown at 17 -- maybe take Iupati.

Campbell is droping like a rock IMO.