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Brief history of multiple 1st rd picks

Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
Something that jumps out at me from this list is the three places where teams really transformed themselves by taking two players who will end up working together. I'm talking about:

Ware and Spears
Castillo and Merriman
Ferguson and Mangold

Dallas and SD were both able to make the 3-4 work right away by taking top OLBs and DEs. And the Jets were able to give themselves the kind on line that makes RBs and rookie QBs look good. It seems to me that those three drafts are the ones that had the most positive impact on their team.

Makes me think maybe Bulaga and Iupati isn't such a bad idea....

I wouldn't mind at all. We would have them 2, Statey and Rachel. Thats potentially 4 youg studs on our oline.

Dude your spelling sucks.

assclown
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
Something that jumps out at me from this list is the three places where teams really transformed themselves by taking two players who will end up working together. I'm talking about:

Ware and Spears
Castillo and Merriman
Ferguson and Mangold

Dallas and SD were both able to make the 3-4 work right away by taking top OLBs and DEs. And the Jets were able to give themselves the kind on line that makes RBs and rookie QBs look good. It seems to me that those three drafts are the ones that had the most positive impact on their team.

Makes me think maybe Bulaga and Iupati isn't such a bad idea....

I wouldn't mind at all. We would have them 2, Statey and Rachel. Thats potentially 4 youg studs on our oline.

Dude your spelling sucks.

assclown

!!!!!!! OK that's 10% warning for the breach of the Spelling Nazi rule and 90% for the unprovoked personal attack on yourself!
Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
Something that jumps out at me from this list is the three places where teams really transformed themselves by taking two players who will end up working together. I'm talking about:

Ware and Spears
Castillo and Merriman
Ferguson and Mangold

Dallas and SD were both able to make the 3-4 work right away by taking top OLBs and DEs. And the Jets were able to give themselves the kind on line that makes RBs and rookie QBs look good. It seems to me that those three drafts are the ones that had the most positive impact on their team.

Makes me think maybe Bulaga and Iupati isn't such a bad idea....

I wouldn't mind at all. We would have them 2, Statey and Rachel. Thats potentially 4 youg studs on our oline.

Dude your spelling sucks.

assclown

!!!!!!! OK that's 10% warning for the breach of the Spelling Nazi rule and 90% for the unprovoked personal attack on yourself!

He's a jerkface who deserves it.
Nice research
Originally posted by smileyman:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by TJA85:
Wow I forgot that the Jets had 4 1st rounders that year.

I know and none of them really worked out for them either.

Pennington was a very good pick for them, especially since he wasn't picked until #18.

Shaun Ellis has been a very solid starter in their 3-4 since he was drafted.

John Abraham turned into a decent DE but not until he left the Jets

Becht was a solid starter for 5 years before he went to Tampa Bay, and being picked at #27 overall that's pretty good value. I'd say the Jets got great value out of 3 of the 4 of their picks in 2000.

Pennington was a decent pick pre-surgeries. Ellis was a solid player when they were a 4-3 team as well. Abraham was a very good pass rusher before he went to Atlanta and Becht was a pretty good blocker and was a decent player but never played like a 1st round talent, that was a bad pick.

Good draft but not great.

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
Something that jumps out at me from this list is the three places where teams really transformed themselves by taking two players who will end up working together. I'm talking about:

Ware and Spears
Castillo and Merriman
Ferguson and Mangold

Dallas and SD were both able to make the 3-4 work right away by taking top OLBs and DEs. And the Jets were able to give themselves the kind on line that makes RBs and rookie QBs look good. It seems to me that those three drafts are the ones that had the most positive impact on their team.

Makes me think maybe Bulaga and Iupati isn't such a bad idea....

Spears never lived up to his draft status nor did Ferguson. While Ferguson has been a good LT he has never played like an OT worthy of being a top 5 pick.
History of multiple 1st rounders in recent years shows that a good percentage of the time teams pick one player who doesn't end up living up to his draft status or busts.
Originally posted by KRS-1:
History of multiple 1st rounders in recent years shows that a good percentage of the time teams pick one player who doesn't end up living up to his draft status or busts.

Well, doesn't that just reflect the chances of a first rounder either disappointing or busting? The fact that the team takes two players just doubles their chances. Other than Flagler and Kelly I don't think we have done too badly in this respect
lawson, davis

Willis, Staley were some of the best combo's in the last 8 years. I would say 2 out of the top 5 teams with multiple picks.
Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by KRS-1:
History of multiple 1st rounders in recent years shows that a good percentage of the time teams pick one player who doesn't end up living up to his draft status or busts.

Well, doesn't that just reflect the chances of a first rounder either disappointing or busting? The fact that the team takes two players just doubles their chances. Other than Flagler and Kelly I don't think we have done too badly in this respect

Let's keep this in recent history because Kelly/Flagler is a whole different time and regime. Staley and Willis was good combo in 2007 but Davis/Lawson was a disappointment. It took Davis 4 years to come around and Lawson has not lived up to expectations as a pass rusher.

Do we want to take another player who will take 4 years to come around and another who doesn't excel in at what he was drafted for (pass rushing) ?

People b***hed about losing a top 10 pick to nab Staley and still do (albeit there was no way of knowing the pick would be top 10, and we made the move because we saw Staley as a franchise LT). Those same people never piped up about VD taking 4 years to come around, instead every year it was "this will be his breakout year". VD was the wrong pick regardless of how he turned out now, you don't draft a TE at 6 overall and can be okay with waiting 4 years for his light switch to turn on. From a TE (being drafted that high) you expect better production earlier on in his career and someone who doesn't have a case of the dropsies.

I disagree with your last sentence but yes it is doubled chances to get at least one good player. But we can't afford to take a big risk on a player in this draft unless the risk is on a QB. So IMO drafting any underachievers or players who have sky high ceilings but are more of a project (ie. taking Iupati as an OT) are a .

Don't get me wrong on Iupati, I'd draft him but as an OG not an OT. We are close to being able to win this division and don't want to chance him struggling out there for a year or 2 or possibly longer, before developing into a quality tackle.

At the end of the day, there is a lot riding on Scot to somehow mirror 2007 and get 2 players who can make an immediate impact. If it mirrors 2006 then it's chalk full of fail and we can expect to win the west in 4 years if things pan out.

Hopefully we can get at least one of 2 to be an immediate contributor and crack a starting spot while the other should at least be a role player from day 1 (whether that's being used a returner, rushing the passer/playing in the nickel D or something to that extent).
Originally posted by elguapo:
lawson, davis

Willis, Staley were some of the best combo's in the last 8 years. I would say 2 out of the top 5 teams with multiple picks.

Agreed. Good job McLoughan and, yes, Nolan.

I am hoping they make it 3 for 3 with Spiller and Trent Williams!
perhaps some of you may want to consider that the problem wasnt drafting davis at #6 overall or that HE took 4 years to develop...

perhaps the problem was that norv turner left unexpectedly late in the offseason after one year... we've had new OCs every year, our "franchise-QB" (still to be determined of course, but must admit he played OK in 06 and 09 but) was injured for two years 07 08.

perhaps it's just plain difficult to ressurrect an NFL franchise from the depths of the abyss and sh!t happens and some ppl need to gain some perspective...

we've got some things in place now... continuity looks like it is going to happen... we had our 1st non loosing season in quite some time... most of our young players are starting to develop... let's look back and learn from past mistakes, but for pete's sake...

CAN WE JUST FOR ONE OFFSEASON STOP FROM BECOMING EMOTIONAL WHINY LITTLE BABIES AROUND HERE?!?!?

Yeah I gave the Jets an A that year they picked up Brick and Mangold. Then later swooped up Faneca. Thats how you build a line.
Originally posted by KRS-1:
Originally posted by smileyman:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by TJA85:
Wow I forgot that the Jets had 4 1st rounders that year.

I know and none of them really worked out for them either.

Pennington was a very good pick for them, especially since he wasn't picked until #18.

Shaun Ellis has been a very solid starter in their 3-4 since he was drafted.

John Abraham turned into a decent DE but not until he left the Jets

Becht was a solid starter for 5 years before he went to Tampa Bay, and being picked at #27 overall that's pretty good value. I'd say the Jets got great value out of 3 of the 4 of their picks in 2000.

Pennington was a decent pick pre-surgeries. Ellis was a solid player when they were a 4-3 team as well. Abraham was a very good pass rusher before he went to Atlanta and Becht was a pretty good blocker and was a decent player but never played like a 1st round talent, that was a bad pick.

Good draft but not great.

Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
Something that jumps out at me from this list is the three places where teams really transformed themselves by taking two players who will end up working together. I'm talking about:

Ware and Spears
Castillo and Merriman
Ferguson and Mangold

Dallas and SD were both able to make the 3-4 work right away by taking top OLBs and DEs. And the Jets were able to give themselves the kind on line that makes RBs and rookie QBs look good. It seems to me that those three drafts are the ones that had the most positive impact on their team.

Makes me think maybe Bulaga and Iupati isn't such a bad idea....

Spears never lived up to his draft status nor did Ferguson. While Ferguson has been a good LT he has never played like an OT worthy of being a top 5 pick.

You might be right about those players. But I still maintain that, whether they ended up being worthy of their high draft slot or not, those drafts transformed those teams into what they are now.

The Cowboys made the switch from a 4-3 to 3-4 seamlessly in one off season, while we fumbled around with that switch for 5 years. It's because the recognized they'd need a DE and an OLB that fit the 3-4 and they drafted two immediate starters. Was Spears the best 3-4 DE ever? No. But he was a major part of their being able to shift painlessly into a new defense.

And I'd argue the same with the Jets. Maybe Ferguson isn't worth a top 5 pick. But the Jets used have big O line problems and now it's one of their strengths.

Sometimes it's about seeing the forest not the trees.
Just like the rest of the draft, it's HIT or MISS. Only 4 examples I can see where a team got both picks right:

2005 San Diego Chargers Luis Castillo
2005 San Diego Chargers Shawne Merriman

2006 New York Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson
2006 New York Jets Nick Mangold

2008 Carolina Panthers Jonathan Stewart
2008 Carolina Panthers Jeff Otah

2008 Dallas Cowboys Felix Jones
2008 Dallas Cowboys Mike Jenkins

Our picks of VD and Manny almost make the list, but not quite because neither one has reached their full potential IMO.

Let's hope the Niners strike gold twice this year.

[ Edited by m_brockalexander on Feb 18, 2010 at 22:47:04 ]
Our draft could well start out with best OT on the board...I really don't see Singletary waiting unless there just aren't many taken before the #13 pick. All the speculation about Spiller, Haden, etc. is just that...the one thing Coach will want to make sure of is that he gets his OT this time. Remember, he was ready to take Oher last year when Crabtree fell in his lap. The 2nd 1st rounder could go at least 3 or 4 different directions. Only way I see it being an OT is if there are still a bunch of 'em on the board. It won't be Iupati...I know many scouts/analysts are frothing at the mouth over this guy, but I really don't see Mac pulling the trigger on any OG that early in the draft. So, I think it'll be a CB, RB, DE...I'm hoping for Jared Odrick, who'd give us all the things neither Sopoaga nor Balmer has so far. With him at LDE, I see us having one of the better DL's in the NFC. Then, Singletary can cut some of his under-achieving DE's. Would like to see Jean-Francois get some meaningful PT this year, too.