Trade next years #1 for the Raiders #2 and #3 this year.
For whatever if Scott McM reads this...take note.
This may sound silly since I realize the emphasis that everyone puts on first round picks. But hear me out for a minute. For the sake of discussion let’s assume Jed York tells Scott to make a bold move. So sitting in the war room, he suggests this draft day scenario: Trade next year’s #1 pick for the Raiders second round #39 and third round #70 this year. Obviously none of this is possible without a willing trade partner. However considering Oakland traded their #1 away next year in the Richard Seymour trade; they may be willing to get that pick back. Also looking at their draft position a deal could happen based on the value of the picks. Follow my math here:
Draft Value: Using the value chart, I figured that if we reversed the trade we made with Carolina last year (a 1st for 2nd and 3rd) the numbers match up. Assuming we win the West next year, and get into the playoffs. Depending on how well we do, we will pick in the twenties. If we go 1 and done - we get the 21st pick (same as Bengals this year). That’s worth 800 points. If we win a game, we go to 26th (same as Cards this year) and that’s worth 700. If the Raiders give up their 2nd round (39th) and their 3rd round (70th) based on trade value that would equal 755 points (510 +245). To equal out the trade we may have to give up a 5th (100 pts) next year to be even if we win a game in the payoffs.
My Argument: Obviously if Alex Smith doesn’t play well, then everyone is going to want to use the 2011 #1 pick on a quarterback. The 49ers top brass have to believe however that with Warner gone we will be right there to win the West, and are willing to gamble. As I said we will pick in the middle 20’s no matter what our record is next year if we make the playoffs. (Draft rules for playoff teams) What great quarterback will be available then? We would have to move up using the 2nd and 3rd rounders next year, and I dont think we are willing to give up three picks for a rookie QB. Plus Nate Davis should get a shot for at least a season and if he doesn’t play well, you have your full complement of picks in 2012 to pick a QB.
Another point before the picks. We can debate players and who is better all day long, but I have used mock drafts that I think are realistic and have accurately slotted guys based on team needs and ability. I really tried not to reach for guys and picked based on who I thought would be available. If you feel a player is too high or too low, then substitute the BPA at that positon in the draft slot. Mocks drafts are all different so feel free to respond on players you like better. I also assumed the team needs are: OT - G / S / CB / PR-KR / NT / 3rd down back and ILB. Based on those needs I think we make the foillowing picks: http://walterfootball.com/offseason2010sf.php
With the 13th pick the 49ers pick: CJ Spiller- RB – KR/PR Clemson- The Webzone’s consensus #1 pick. When he runs a 4.24 at the combine heads will turn. He’s lighting quick and can go from 0 – 60 in warp speed. He is a true dual threat with his rushing and receiving skills. A legit home run every time he touches the ball. He will put pressure on defenses allowing us to dictate the tempo on offense espically third down. Plus Gore has missed 4 games the past two years due to injury and turns 28 next year. Coffee and Spiller can make up the slack if Gore gets injured again. Not to mention his return abilities. 1 KR for touchdown last year and 7 career kick off returns. Hopefully he falls this far.
With the 17th pick the 49ers pick: Mike Iupati RT – Idaho – or trade up for Bulaga. After studying the entire group of lineman projected in the first round, I am really torn here. I really like Brian Bulaga, but based on other team needs he will probably will be the 2nd or 3rd tackle off the board, and be gone by now. We need a #1 RT here. I am not sold on Trent Williams or Bruce Cambell who I think are reaches here. I would take the chance on Uptai before these other two because he’s a mauler and plays so aggressive. Sing is the master motivator; hopefully he and Coach Solari can turn Uptai into something great, since he has all the physical tolls and plays with a nastiness that we need. He would be a definite upgrade over Adam Snyder who would be the backup.
I went in this order because I think that at pick #14 Seattle would grab Spiller. I think Spiller has more value at 13 since he addresses multiple needs plus I don’t want to play against him twice every season for the next 10 years. Based on trade value if we were to use one of our #3’s we would be able to go from 16 to as high as 10 to ensure we get Bulaga. I vote to stay put and take Iupati
With the 39th pick the 49ers pick: Brandon Spikes- ILB FL or Patrick Robinson CB FSU. Dre Bly and Takeo Spikes are about done. Assuming Clements’s contract gets reworked, and the 49ers feel he is the long term answer as the CB they take Spikes. Otherwise Robinson is the pick. Both of these guys are first round talents who fill spots for aging veterans. Robinson has great ball skills that can create turnovers. Spikes hits like a MAC truck and has a skill set that will compliment Willis. Due to some character issues I think he falls here. My pick is Spikes who can take over the TED spot after a year of being under his cousin’s wing. He and Willis together will be a force in the middle. Sing and TKO would be a great influence on this kid. Also if available I think Daryl Washington ILB TCU and Kyle Wilson- CB BSU get looks here.
With the 49th pick the 49ers pick: Chad Jones – SS LSU or Nate Allen- S FSU - They have to take a safety here since Mike Lewis is about done. Jones (6’3 218) is big, physical and likes to hit. A great athlete who pitches on the LSU baseball team. Allen (6’1” 208) lighter and better suited at FS. Both excel in the box, and react well to the ball. Depending on who gets picked will determine if they move Goldston. Both could use a year to develop under to Lewis and then start next year. If available my pick is Jones for his size, and return skills and allows Goldston to stay at FS. Plus McC loves the SEC. If both are taken Larry Asante- SS Neb or Morgan Burentt- FS GT get looks here.
Also using this pick and who's on the board we could trade the 69th pick along with our 16th pick to get higher in the first round to select Bulaga. Or we can take this pick and a couple of late round picks(5th and 6th) and trade back into the end of the second round (high as #59) and take BPA at S or CB depending on who's available. If say Chad Jones falls we could grab Brandon Spikes at 39, Patrick Robinson at 49 and Jones at 59 for example. or if not take Spikes at 39, Robinson at 49 and Asante at 59
With the 69th pick the 49ers pick: (Assuming they take Brandon Spikes at #39 and don't trade) Brandon Ghee CB – Wake Forest or Javier Areanas CB BAMA. Ghee is fast, likes to hit, and very versatile. Can play the run and pass equally well. Areanas is a premier return guy but his play at CB is soft and very inconsistent. My pick is Ghee since he is a better pure corner.
With the 69th pick the 49ers pick: (If Spikes is gone and they take Patrick Robinson at #39 and dont trade) Mike Johnson Bama or Vladimir Ducasse UMASS: Both bruising guards that would be good backup to David Baas. My pick is Johnson who is more polished and versatile who can also play Center. Ducasse is a project.
With the 79th pick the 49ers select: Cam Thomas DT- North Carolina – Since they will franchise Abrayo Franklin, they need a replacement if they can’t work out a long term deal. Thomas is a very effective run stuffer who could anchor a defense for years to come. Plus a year behind Franklin wouldn’t hurt either. He is a wide body who plays with tons of energy takes up space in the middle and will keep guys off Pat Willis.
With the 110th pick the 49ers pick: Jacoby Ford WR / PR – Clemson
I came away from the Senior bowl impressed with his route running and quickness. He is blazing fast who can stretch the field for us like we haven’t see in awhile. Some call him just a track guy. While in high school he ran a 4.126- 40. But Ford was productive playing in the very competitive ACC. While at Clemson Ford and C.J Spiller became the greatest all-purpose duo in NCAA history. When he runs a 4.15 at the combine he may have to be picked earlier at #79. I think reaching for this guy is worth it. McM likes big receivers but this guy can be the next Desean Jackson and make a living playing the slot. Taking a chance on a guy like this in the 4th is worth if it.
By trading next years #1 and picking up two extra picks this year could be very enticing. Looking at the 2011 mocks, nothing stands out to me except Locker and he will go #1. All of our major future needs have been addressed plus we pick up Spikes and a corner capable of starting (hopefully) that can both sit a year and learn. We wont have our full compliment of picks in 2011, but where would are major holes be? This signature draft could start our Super Bowl run.
Not using the 3rd Round pick to trade up
1A. CJ Spiller RB and KR
1B. Mike Iupati RT / Bulaga RT
2A. Brandon Spikes ILB or Patrick Robinson CB
2B. Chad Jones SS
3A. Brandon Ghee CB / Javier Areanas CB or Mike Johnson G /Vladimir Ducasse G
3B Cam Thomas DT
4. Jacoby Ford WR / PR
5. BPA or Trade
7. BPA (comp pick)
Using the 3rd round pick to trade up
1A. CJ Spiller RB and KR
1B. Mike Iupati RT / Bulaga RT
2A. Brandon Spikes ILB
2B. Patrick Robinson CB or BPA CB
2C. Chad Jones SS or BPA SS
3 Cam Thomas DT
4. Jacoby Ford WR / PR
7. BPA (comp pick)