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What will Scotty do?

If you subscribe to the belief that past behavior is the best indicator of future performance, let's break down Scotty's draft history and draw some conclusions. Scotty is a self-proclaimed BPA guy, but this breakdown might imply some other conclusions, as well.

There have been 42 picks with Scotty on board:

OG/C - 4 of 42 picks: Rnd 2 (2 picks), Rnd 3 (1 pick), Rnd 4 (1 pick).
OT - 1 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick).
TE - 5 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 6 (2 picks), Rnd 7 (2 picks).
WR - 5 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 3 (1 pick), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 6 (1), Rnd 7 (1).
QB - 2 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 5 (1 pick).
RB - 4 of 42 picks: Rnd 3 (2 picks), Rnd 4 (1 pick), Rnd 6 (1 pick).
FB - none

Total Offensive = 21

DL - 6 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1), Rnd 3 (1), Rnd 4 (1), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 6 (1), Rnd 7 (1).
ILB - 3 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 7 (1)
OLB - 3 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 4 (1), Rnd 5 (1).
CB - 5 of 42 picks: Rnd 3 (1), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 6 (2), Rnd 7 (1). Incl R.Smith as CB.
S - 3 of 42 picks: Rnd 4 (1), Rnd 7 (2).

Total Defense = 20

RS - 1 of 42 picks: Rnd 3 (1 pick) - this was Brandon Williams

Conclusions:

Over 5 years, covering 7 of 42 picks, Scotty has NEVER used more than a single Round 1 pick on ANY one position. Scotty proclaims to be a BPA disciple, but does he have a long term plan to eventually secure a #1 pick at most every position? Is it a DB's turn in this Round 1 rotation?

Over 5 years, the club has drafted only 1 player (Staley) for the NFL OT position. Does Scott value the OT position highly enough? Were there no Round 2-7 OT's, who were the BPA at the time? Odd.

"You can get guards" - in Rounds 2-4, otherwise, just sign them as UDFA's.

Over this period, the club has seemingly shorted the DB area, with R. Smith, drafted as a CB in Round 3, as its only Day 1 pick at this position. (Understand that Rnd 3 is no longer a Day 1 round).

The only previous effort at drafting a RS (B. Williams in Round 3) did not turn out so well. Does Scotty prefer FA to fill this need?

Only 2 of 42 picks were Round 2 selections (both times used to select an OG). Otherwise, the club has shown a propensity to trade (up or down) out of its Round 2 positions.
[ Edited by jimbagg on Feb 2, 2010 at 3:11 PM ]
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,931
He'll draft an OT at 13, Trade down from 16/17 and draft BPA. Whoever/whatever that may be.
Based on past performance, Scott will NOT trade down in Round 1 (that was Donahue's MO). Look for Scott to move the Round 2 pick, if he wants to manuever, up or down.
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,931
Originally posted by susweel:
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.

truer words have never been spoken!
Kinda shocking to see we've only drafted one OT.
  • smileyman
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by Leathaface:
Kinda shocking to see we've only drafted one OT.

Since 1950 the Niners have only drafted 4 offensive linemen in the first round. Three tackles and one center.
Originally posted by jimbagg:
If you subscribe to the belief that past behavior is the best indicator of future performance, let's break down Scotty's draft history and draw some conclusions. Scotty is a self-proclaimed BPA guy, but this breakdown might imply some other conclusions, as well.

There have been 42 picks with Scotty on board:

OG/C - 4 of 42 picks: Rnd 2 (2 picks), Rnd 3 (1 pick), Rnd 4 (1 pick).
OT - 1 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick).
TE - 5 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 6 (2 picks), Rnd 7 (2 picks).
WR - 5 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 3 (1 pick), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 6 (1), Rnd 7 (1).
QB - 2 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 5 (1 pick).
RB - 4 of 42 picks: Rnd 3 (2 picks), Rnd 4 (1 pick), Rnd 6 (1 pick).
FB - none

Total Offensive = 21

DL - 6 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1), Rnd 3 (1), Rnd 4 (1), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 6 (1), Rnd 7 (1).
ILB - 3 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 7 (1)
OLB - 3 of 42 picks: Rnd 1 (1 pick), Rnd 4 (1), Rnd 5 (1).
CB - 5 of 42 picks: Rnd 3 (1), Rnd 5 (1), Rnd 6 (2), Rnd 7 (1). Incl R.Smith as CB.
S - 3 of 42 picks: Rnd 4 (1), Rnd 7 (2).

Total Defense = 20

RS - 1 of 42 picks: Rnd 3 (1 pick) - this was Brandon Williams

Conclusions:

Over 5 years, covering 7 of 42 picks, Scotty has NEVER used more than a single Round 1 pick on ANY one position. Scotty proclaims to be a BPA disciple, but does he have a long term plan to eventually secure a #1 pick at most every position? Is it a DB's turn in this Round 1 rotation?

Over 5 years, the club has drafted only 1 player (Staley) for the NFL OT position. Does Scott value the OT position highly enough? Were there no Round 2-7 OT's, who were the BPA at the time? Odd.

"You can get guards" - in Rounds 2-4, otherwise, just sign them as UDFA's.

Over this period, the club has seemingly shorted the DB area, with R. Smith, drafted as a CB in Round 3, as its only Day 1 pick at this position. (Understand that Rnd 3 is no longer a Day 1 round).

The only previous effort at drafting a RS (B. Williams in Round 3) did not turn out so well. Does Scotty prefer FA to fill this need?

Only 2 of 42 picks were Round 2 selections (both times used to select an OG). Otherwise, the club has shown a propensity to trade (up or down) out of its Round 2 positions.

You have to take where the team was at the time strongly into consideration. You mention the team only attempting to draft one "return specialist". I dont even think they viewed Williams as much of a RS as they hoped he could be a slot WR. At any rate a team that is in rebuilding mode as they have been much of the past five years has no business using any draft picks on a "return specialist". This year how ever it is probably warranted.

And the $90 million investment they made in the supposed "lock down" corner in FA probably kept them from wanting to invest first round money at that position.
OT then BPA.
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by susweel:
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.

truer words have never been spoken!

Frank Gore?


Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by susweel:
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.

truer words have never been spoken!

Frank Gore?



Everyone gets lucky once in a while. Just look at how many times he has missed.
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by susweel:
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.

truer words have never been spoken!

Frank Gore?



Everyone gets lucky once in a while. Just look at how many times he has missed.

Nate Davis
Josh Morgan

Just to name a very short few off the top of my head. I'm sure I could name more if I wanted to look at every draft in depth.

Originally posted by susweel:
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.

Funny, but oh so truthfully painful!
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by susweel:
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.

truer words have never been spoken!

Frank Gore?



Everyone gets lucky once in a while. Just look at how many times he has missed.

Nate Davis
Josh Morgan

Just to name a very short few off the top of my head. I'm sure I could name more if I wanted to look at every draft in depth.


Yah those guys are perennial pro bowlers.
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by susweel:
Scotty will draft a good player in the first round then completely waste the rest of the draft on crappy players.

truer words have never been spoken!

Frank Gore?



Everyone gets lucky once in a while. Just look at how many times he has missed.

Nate Davis
Josh Morgan

Just to name a very short few off the top of my head. I'm sure I could name more if I wanted to look at every draft in depth.


Yah those guys are perennial pro bowlers.

People seem readily conviced that Nate Davis = the next Peyton Manning on this board. Look at all the threads and all the love he gets. You can't convince them otherwise.

Josh Morgan is a starter.