Originally posted by MadDog49er:Originally posted by OnTheClock:Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.
The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.
As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.
The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.
You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.
Yeah, um, the 49ers pick right now is actually higher than the Panthers.. If we finished with the same record, "Our" pick would be before theirs.
I'm thinking it'll be the #9 pick at best, which I don't think will last us Berry. But it could get us Bryant or Bulaga.
You are right that if the season ended today that the Niners would select before the Panthers' original pick. However, played out to the full 16 games, the Niners own pick would be before the Panthers'. The projection percentages are listed on GBNreport.com.
The final two games will kill our opponents' winning percentage.
MD.. Please explain for the village idiot how opponents winning percentage works to determine draft order in case of a tie...Thx.