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Niners have good chance for a top six pick

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.

The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.

As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.

The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.

You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.

Yeah, um, the 49ers pick right now is actually higher than the Panthers.. If we finished with the same record, "Our" pick would be before theirs.

I'm thinking it'll be the #9 pick at best, which I don't think will last us Berry. But it could get us Bryant or Bulaga.

You are right that if the season ended today that the Niners would select before the Panthers' original pick. However, played out to the full 16 games, the Niners own pick would be before the Panthers'. The projection percentages are listed on GBNreport.com.

The final two games will kill our opponents' winning percentage.


MD.. Please explain for the village idiot how opponents winning percentage works to determine draft order in case of a tie...Thx.
Originally posted by DaveWilcox:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.

The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.

As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.

The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.

You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.

Yeah, um, the 49ers pick right now is actually higher than the Panthers.. If we finished with the same record, "Our" pick would be before theirs.

I'm thinking it'll be the #9 pick at best, which I don't think will last us Berry. But it could get us Bryant or Bulaga.

You are right that if the season ended today that the Niners would select before the Panthers' original pick. However, played out to the full 16 games, the Niners own pick would be before the Panthers'. The projection percentages are listed on GBNreport.com.

The final two games will kill our opponents' winning percentage.


MD.. Please explain for the village idiot how opponents winning percentage works to determine draft order in case of a tie...Thx.

Your idiot comment reminds me of a Seinfeld episode where George says he is Lord of the Idiots.

The tiebreaker system for teams who finish with the same record is to tabulate the winning percentage of all 16 teams they play during the season. So, hypothetically, if all opponents finished 8-8 for the season, the opponents' winning precentage would be .500.

Teams who play lower caliber teams opponents during a season, (let's say the opponents finish with a winning percentage of.477), would select first over a team whose opponents finished with a win % of .494.

As of right now, the Niners have played a more difficult schedule than the Panthers, and would pick after them. However, the Niners play two dogs at the end of the season in the Lions and Rams, while the Panthers play four teams with record above .500, including the 12-0 Saints. So, by the end of the season, the Panthers will have played a more difficult schedule, so the Niners would use their own selection before the Panthers'.

Check out GBNReport.com to see the current standings projected out through the entire season.
Originally posted by PRIMETIME21:
oakland will get 2 more wins atleast, and i don't see carolina winning from here on out with their starting QB gone.

Shoot, thats probably exactly what they need
I'll take pick #11. Lots of talent coming from that pick in the draft.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.

The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.

As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.

The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.

You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.

Maybe you're right, but we all want to cheer for KC, since they are most likely to grab Eric Berry with being slotted in the 5 to 8 spot. Go KC

Washington can lose, they need a qb, buffalo needs offensive help, Oakland wants Taylor Mays
Unless we get a truly great pass rusher I think trading down both first rd picks for lower picks and picks in the second and third might be the way to go. I think we could get a lot of pretty good players especially in the areas of OL and dbs. When we do have many picks say in the fourth round Mcfooledagain goes and picks midgets or three legged runningbacks. I think we could do better with a sounder GM. I think McCloughan would be ok as a scout but in terms of making judgments, he is lacking any sort of mojo. I especially think they need sounder overall players and not just some superstar. The other thing is the coaches. They are hoboes making mulligan with filet mignons. If these guys were cooks we all would have Montezuma's revenge and the Tennessee trots for months on end.
Wow, 6th pick means we will probably get Eric Berry or Russell Okung.

And I admit I was one that was in the E. Brown camp. I won't count him out quite yet, but to trade a top pick for him is amazing.
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damn with gradkowski out oakland won't win anymore games, so let's go washington and buffalo!! win win win
A top 10 pick would be great for us with the Panthers pick.
I don't want projects from our first two picks, I want starters. Whether that be Okung, Spiller, Haden, Giyard, Graham, Iupati. I don't care who they are I want them to be immediate contributors.
I live in NC, and I love pulling for them to lose!
Originally posted by tohara3:
A top 10 pick would be great for us with the Panthers pick.

A top 10 is highly likely. The Panthers have three games left, against the Giants, Vikings and Saints.

I've got a feeling the Panthers stand a chance in one of those two last games, as both the Vikes and Saints could rest some players going into the playoffs. We've got to cheer that the Saints lose next week and Vikings win, so both teams have to play out each game.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by tohara3:
A top 10 pick would be great for us with the Panthers pick.

A top 10 is highly likely. The Panthers have three games left, against the Giants, Vikings and Saints.

I've got a feeling the Panthers stand a chance in one of those two last games, as both the Vikes and Saints could rest some players going into the playoffs. We've got to cheer that the Saints lose next week and Vikings win, so both teams have to play out each game.

this this this
Originally posted by NinerFan1977:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by tohara3:
A top 10 pick would be great for us with the Panthers pick.

A top 10 is highly likely. The Panthers have three games left, against the Giants, Vikings and Saints.

I've got a feeling the Panthers stand a chance in one of those two last games, as both the Vikes and Saints could rest some players going into the playoffs. We've got to cheer that the Saints lose next week and Vikings win, so both teams have to play out each game.

this this this
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.

The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.

As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.

The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.

You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.

Yeah, um, the 49ers pick right now is actually higher than the Panthers.. If we finished with the same record, "Our" pick would be before theirs.

I'm thinking it'll be the #9 pick at best, which I don't think will last us Berry. But it could get us Bryant or Bulaga.

You are right that if the season ended today that the Niners would select before the Panthers' original pick. However, played out to the full 16 games, the Niners own pick would be before the Panthers'. The projection percentages are listed on GBNreport.com.

The final two games will kill our opponents' winning percentage.


Eric Berry baby! Even if it takes trading up a few spots we got the ammo to do it!