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Niners have good chance for a top six pick

The reason why is look at Carolina's remaining four games:

At New England (lost last two games and are going to go all out at home)
Home vs. Minnesota (Vikings are racing for home-field)
At NY Giants (Still in a battle with Cowboys and Eagles for first place)
Home vs. New Orleans (fighting for home-field and undefeated season)

At best, I see them going 6-10 but also likely they could lose all four and be 5-11. At 5-11, we are looking at top six pick and potential to pick up Berry, Okung, or Suh.
Well, there's currently 8 teams below them in the standings:

Oakland (4-8)
Buffalo (4-8)
Washington (3-9)
Kansas City (3-9)
Detroit (2-10)
Tampa Bay (1-11)
Cleveland (1-11)
St. Louis (1-11)

I think the bottom 5 are set, there's no way Carolina dips below KC, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, or St. Louis; those teams just won't win enough games. So the only way to end up in the top 6 would be to actually have the 6th pick.

So let's say they do lose out (which I think they will) and end up at 5-11. That means that to end up with the 6th pick, Oakland and Buffalo would have to win 2 games, and Washington would have to win 3. Their schedules:

Oakland
Washington
@Denver
@Cleveland
Baltimore

Buffalo
@Kansas City
New England
@Atlanta
Indianapolis

Washington
@Oakland
New York Giants
Dallas
San Diego

I think we can safely assume that Washington won't win 3 games. Oakland has been playing good lately, so I think they get 2 wins, but I don't see Buffalo winning 2 more games with their schedule.

So I think the Carolina pick will probably be at 7 or 8, most likely 7.
Maybe in most years a 5-11 record would get you a top 6 pick, but not this year. There are some really bad teams in the league this year.

The following teams currently have worse records and will likely finish with lousier records than the Panthers.

1. Tampa Bay
2. St. Louis
3. Cleveland
4. Detroit
5. Kansas City
6. Raiders
7. Buffalo
8. Raiders
9. Washington.

There is a logjam of teams at 5-7 including:

Forty Niners
Chicago
Seattle
Carolina Panthers

I agree that the Panthers remaining schedule is very tough and they may not win another game, but I doubt that few if any of the teams behind the Panthers get to 5 wins so I expect the Panthers pick to be the #10 pick and our pick to be 14 - 16.
I doubt it but we could use that.
I'm just hoping for a top 10 pick.
Originally posted by YourHuckleberry:
Well, there's currently 8 teams below them in the standings:

Oakland (4-8)
Buffalo (4-8)
Washington (3-9)
Kansas City (3-9)
Detroit (2-10)
Tampa Bay (1-11)
Cleveland (1-11)
St. Louis (1-11)

I think the bottom 5 are set, there's no way Carolina dips below KC, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, or St. Louis; those teams just won't win enough games. So the only way to end up in the top 6 would be to actually have the 6th pick.

So let's say they do lose out (which I think they will) and end up at 5-11. That means that to end up with the 6th pick, Oakland and Buffalo would have to win 2 games, and Washington would have to win 3. Their schedules:

Oakland
Washington
@Denver
@Cleveland
Baltimore

Buffalo
@Kansas City
New England
@Atlanta
Indianapolis

Washington
@Oakland
New York Giants
Dallas
San Diego

I think we can safely assume that Washington won't win 3 games. Oakland has been playing good lately, so I think they get 2 wins, but I don't see Buffalo winning 2 more games with their schedule.

So I think the Carolina pick will probably be at 7 or 8, most likely 7.

Thats exactly what I'm thinking, but I'm also hoping for a Washington miracle
oakland will get 2 more wins atleast, and i don't see carolina winning from here on out with their starting QB gone.
Originally posted by YourHuckleberry:
Well, there's currently 8 teams below them in the standings:

Oakland (4-8)
Buffalo (4-8)
Washington (3-9)
Kansas City (3-9)
Detroit (2-10)
Tampa Bay (1-11)
Cleveland (1-11)
St. Louis (1-11)

I think the bottom 5 are set, there's no way Carolina dips below KC, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, or St. Louis; those teams just won't win enough games. So the only way to end up in the top 6 would be to actually have the 6th pick.

So let's say they do lose out (which I think they will) and end up at 5-11. That means that to end up with the 6th pick, Oakland and Buffalo would have to win 2 games, and Washington would have to win 3. Their schedules:

Oakland
Washington
@Denver
@Cleveland
Baltimore

Buffalo
@Kansas City
New England
@Atlanta
Indianapolis

Washington
@Oakland
New York Giants
Dallas
San Diego

I think we can safely assume that Washington won't win 3 games. Oakland has been playing good lately, so I think they get 2 wins, but I don't see Buffalo winning 2 more games with their schedule.

So I think the Carolina pick will probably be at 7 or 8, most likely 7.

Hope you're right. I figured 10, but didn't spend much time looking at comparative schedules..

Carolina must be beside themselves for trading the pick for Everette Brown. As bad as Delhomme has been this year, you know they would be eyeing a QB.

I wonder how Everette Brown is doing for them?
Everette Brown states to date:
Sacks: 1.5
Total Tackles: 16
Interceptions: 0
Originally posted by KOniner:
Everette Brown states to date:
Sacks: 1.5
Total Tackles: 16
Interceptions: 0

Totally overmatched in the league. I remember last year when many board members had him rated over Orakpo, which I thought was insane.
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.

The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.

As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.

The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.

You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Dec 10, 2009 at 14:08:03 ]
Originally posted by KOniner:
Everette Brown states to date:
Sacks: 1.5
Total Tackles: 16
Interceptions: 0



Sacks 1.5 and Total Tackles: 16?

I'm glad that Carolina Panthers wanna him that trade up to 49ers for the 1st Rd 2010 years!! yay!!! Thanks Carolina Panthers!!

[ Edited by BuZzB28 on Dec 10, 2009 at 15:12:53 ]
wow didn't realize there was three 1-11 teams
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.

The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.

As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.

The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.

You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.

Yeah, um, the 49ers pick right now is actually higher than the Panthers.. If we finished with the same record, "Our" pick would be before theirs.

I'm thinking it'll be the #9 pick at best, which I don't think will last us Berry. But it could get us Bryant or Bulaga.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Dec 10, 2009 at 15:15:29 ]
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You had me until you stated "good chance". Yikes! The reality is that none of the bottom three teams (Browns, Rams, Bucs) will run the table, just to get to the Panthers' five wins. So, 1-3 is out.

The Lions are not going to win three of their last four games to get to 5-11. They play Baltimore, Arizona, SF. So, the fourth slot is out.

As for the fifth and six teams (Skins and Chiefs at 3-9), they would need to win at least two games, just to get to 5-11. The Skins play Oakland on the road, then NYG, then Dallas, the SD. That will be a mighty challenge.

The Chiefs have a better chance to get to 5-11, in that they play Buffalo and Cleveland at home before travelling to Cincinnati and Denver.

You also have to remember that the Panthers' opponents' projected win % is pretty high right now, so in tiebreaker situations, they would drop below other teams.
And, if the Panthers win even one game (which I project they will), then 6-10 will surely drop them out of any top 6 pick consideration. Expect a pick in the 7-10 area. Sixth overall is a real reach.

Yeah, um, the 49ers pick right now is actually higher than the Panthers.. If we finished with the same record, "Our" pick would be before theirs.

I'm thinking it'll be the #9 pick at best, which I don't think will last us Berry. But it could get us Bryant or Bulaga.

You are right that if the season ended today that the Niners would select before the Panthers' original pick. However, played out to the full 16 games, the Niners own pick would be before the Panthers'. The projection percentages are listed on GBNreport.com.

The final two games will kill our opponents' winning percentage.