Originally posted by miked1978:
Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
We've had some less than gret drfts recently but I went back and looked at the all time draft list. I the 4 years form 1990 thru 1993 the Niners had 39 draft picks. ( the draft had 12 rounds in some of those years) They had 5 #1 picks and 6 #2 picks. They got 5 good players out of all that. Stubblefield in 1993, Watters and Hanks in 1991 and Eric Davis and Dennis Brown in 1990. All the other 34 players either made no impact or were fringe players at best. I only post this to show that sometimes teams miss no matter who the coach and GM are. Sometomes the talent just doesn't fall their way. During those years the 49ers were much like the current team. Always battling for the top spot so they ended up pickng near the end of the round.
I've done a lot of research of the drafts since 2000 and i can tell you this regime is pretty good. They have swung hard and missed for sure and the Trey Lance miss will be one of the worst misses in franchise history. But they have also hit on a lot of picks as well.
Some interesting stats:
% of players by round that become Average to All Pro type of players
Rd 1: 53%
Rd 2: 42%
Rd 3: 26%
Rd 4: 20%
Rd 5: 15%
Rd 6: 10%
Rd 7: 8%
Getting an "ok" player in the first round is slightly more than 50/50 chance. That is crazy.. With that said I think the NFL values 1st rounders way too high considering those numbers.
i got a post on here somewhere talking about this, and how likely a player is to sign a second contract....
I don't recall the exact numbers, but this team is WELL above average when it comes to drafting people that get multi years starting, and sign a second contract.
I want to say they are 30% higher then league average...but i could be wrong on that, it has been a while since i looked it up. Of course, we have to remember they do things that slant's that a bit...like drafting a Kicker and Punter, but still there are sooo many hits, not always getting that second contract from the 49ers, but sticking in the league somewhere.
As bad as some of these drafts have been in producing functional talent, even with those misses, they are still very, very good compared to most.
Personally, I am fine with trading picks to get proven players like CMC. Especially when the situation will force the old team to eat a big chunk of the contract, but we are seeing what Trey and CMC have done to depth...and that is something the numbers do not tell you.
As good as the 49ers have been at drafting NFL talent in the draft, it is not always usable BY THE 49ers. I remember when I was looking up all the dudes who got a second contract...a pretty good portion of those are guys that could not make the roster on the 49ers. Things like 4th string RBs. Yeah...dude got a second contract, but a player like that almost has zero positive impact on the 49ers. You might write off an NFL talent that just can't stick on the 49ers due to depth, but when you trade off a draft haul for Trey and CMC... all of a sudden you need more draft choices to contribute on the 49ers.
I am all for treating draft picks as exactly what they are, disposable...but I think criticism is fair. For example...when we invest a large amount of that limited resource in back up RBs/WRs. Even when we get credit for "hitting" on those, it means almost nothing to the team when that player is seldom or never used depth.
It is just kind of terrible luck that you take random 190-200 pound fast dudes (WRs-RBs) thinking well...maybe they stick on special teams....and then...poof....oline sucks, dline sucks, lbers suck, safties suck, and shocker....Special Teams suck.... There are various reasons for all that... but one of those reasons is lack of functional depth.
I am not a bash the front office guy, or bash the coach type...but the criticisms regarding the draft, and in particular the depth on this roster are Fair. Might not always be right...but it is fair.
