49ERS vs Lions Pregame thread 2023 Season NFCCG

Originally posted by wallangong:
And yet they gave up 6 ypc to the worst rushing team in the league. Not scared of any aspect of the Lions defense.

Right but that's because they gameplanned against a poor running offense and a more threatening passing offense with highly talented WRs… knowing full well their passing defense is their achilles heel.

They aren't going to have the same gameplan against us, so I wouldn't expect the same results.

All that said, I wouldn't be scared of Detroits defense either. The issue is how efficient will our offense have to be against them if we can't get off the field on defense.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by wallangong:
And yet they gave up 6 ypc to the worst rushing team in the league. Not scared of any aspect of the Lions defense.

Right but that's because they gameplanned against a poor running offense and a more threatening passing offense with highly talented WRs… knowing full well their passing defense is their achilles heel.

They aren't going to have the same gameplan against us, so I wouldn't expect the same results.

All that said, I wouldn't be scared of Detroits defense either. The issue is how efficient will our offense have to be against them if we can't get off the field on defense.

They need to gameplan for a potent run and pass game now lol if our o line can do their part I have no worries about their defense, but I suspect they'll get theirs at times. Their running game on the other hand scares me against our defense. Hopefully we get it together

Originally posted by scooterhd:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
No one wants them to lose. There are question marks on the team related to the inability to rush the passer, giving up easy yards on the ground and air, penalties in the secondary. These are red flags going into a game against one of the league's best offenses. We barely beat and should not have beaten the Packers the way the game was being played. But now that we squeaked by, it's not like everything is back to normal. Of course there is concern.

Kyle's offense covers up for a lot of defensive weaknesses. Example - run defense. Statistically 49ers are top 3 (or something like that) against the run. I feel they are more like towards middle of the pack. One reason is teams stop running against the 49er defense once they are behind. Thats a concern going into the Lions game as they do have a top flight run game.

To win - Kyle has to get ahead of them by a one or two scores to get them to start passing and give the 49er defense opportunity to create some turnovers, like in the Green Bay game.

I have heard this argument multiple times over the past several weeks. I am going to test this theory tonight. I am going to go through every game this season where the score was close at the half and see how offenses faired running the ball against us when the score was still close.

So I went through all the games. Only included defensive rushing stats when the game was close (within 2 scores) and I excluded week 18. Our run defense isn't any different when the game is close compared to what it has been overall for the season. In fact, the yards per attempt are actually slightly better at 4.09 yards per. Overall for the season we are at 4.2.

Thats kind of the opposite of what he is saying. Rushing yards against is much lower when we are winning. Based on yours numbers, you would expect Week 1, Week 3, Week 5, Week 12, Week 13 to be easy wins. Basically, when our offense gets early leads, teama naturally run less against us and then our defensive rushing stats look amazing. But its because of the offense. In close games, are rushing defense isnt all that great. If the Lions can keep it close, and justify lots of rushing attempt, they too will accumulate yards against us.

4.1 yards per attempt would put us in the top 10. I would argue that we are more susceptible to the run when we have a 2+ score lead because offenses are passing so much on us at that point that a run would catch us off guard. When the game is close, the defense must play more honest. Therefor, the numbers I crunched are a fair evaluation of our true run defense.

Originally posted by Cisco0623:
They need to gameplan for a potent run and pass game now lol if our o line can do their part I have no worries about their defense, but I suspect they'll get theirs at times. Their running game on the other hand scares me against our defense. Hopefully we get it together

Same. If they are going on long drives and converting third downs over and over again, they are not just likely to score points but they are putting pressure on our offense as well (obviously).

if weather conditions are ideal then we win by 20, if deebo doesn't play then we win by 13.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
4.1 yards per attempt would put us in the top 10. I would argue that we are more susceptible to the run when we have a 2+ score lead because offenses are passing so much on us at that point that a run would catch us off guard. When the game is close, the defense must play more honest. Therefor, the numbers I crunched are a fair evaluation of our true run defense.

Sure but the runs are less impactful and again the argument revolves around the amount of attempts. They attempt less against the weakness of our defense and are forced to play against the strength of our defense all while we know its coming situationally.

Originally posted by tankle104:
I may be in the minority but I like the idea of bringing young back, but not for too much. The flip side is who replaces him? He isn't bad, just not great. Very serviceable with high upside. Still super young and another year in our system may be good for him. I just hope we add more wrinkles to the d line than we currently have. I don't really like the wide 9.

Javon Kinlaw and Chase Young blowup the backfield for the 2-yard loss

Watch Kinlaw after the play is over 💀 pic.twitter.com/o7ORAIlLIi

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) January 22, 2024

I posted about it during the game in his thread, but Kinlaw had some incredible reps this game. That's a textbook rep right there turning the double into a single by attacking his man, getting skinny and waiting until he's free to get off the block. When you see it from the bird's eye view, you can see the knockback created by Kinlaw with great pad level and brute strength.

Kinlaw has a type of body language during a play that leads me to believe that he is at times surprised by his own ability. It feels like he gets shocked by how well he did in the first half of a rep that he forgets he needs to finish.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
4.1 yards per attempt would put us in the top 10. I would argue that we are more susceptible to the run when we have a 2+ score lead because offenses are passing so much on us at that point that a run would catch us off guard. When the game is close, the defense must play more honest. Therefor, the numbers I crunched are a fair evaluation of our true run defense.

Sure but the runs are less impactful and again the argument revolves around the amount of attempts. They attempt less against the weakness of our defense and are forced to play against the strength of our defense all while we know its coming situationally.

The runs are less impactful when the game is close vs when we have a huge lead? What are you trying to say? From the research I just did, offenses tend to pass to set up the run against us. Not the other way around. That tells me that offensive coordinators believe our pass defense is our weakness, not our run defense.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
The runs are less impactful when the game is close vs when we have a huge lead? What are you trying to say? From the research I just did, offenses tend to pass to set up the run against us. Not the other way around. That tells me that offensive coordinators believe our pass defense is our weakness, not our run defense.

They're less impactful when we have a two+ score lead. I responded to what you said:

I would argue that we are more susceptible to the run when we have a 2+ score lead because offenses are passing so much on us at that point that a run would catch us off guard.

Teams having slightly more success in runs when we are up two scores is not remotely surprising. I wouldn't be surprised if this was true for every team in the league.

Can you provide a chart that focuses on attempts?

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
The runs are less impactful when the game is close vs when we have a huge lead? What are you trying to say? From the research I just did, offenses tend to pass to set up the run against us. Not the other way around. That tells me that offensive coordinators believe our pass defense is our weakness, not our run defense.

They're less impactful when we have a two+ score lead. I responded to what you said:

I would argue that we are more susceptible to the run when we have a 2+ score lead because offenses are passing so much on us at that point that a run would catch us off guard.

Teams having slightly more success in runs when we are up two scores is not remotely surprising. I wouldn't be surprised if this was true for every team in the league.

Can you provide a chart with that focuses on attempts?

Sure but it will cost you $25 per hour spent working on it.

Our run defense's stats are far more important when the game is close. I am not sure why you think the opposite. The argument is that if we are in a close game against a top 5 rushing offense that our run defense won't hold up throughout the game. Hence, why I used only rushing stats when the game was close.

this will come down to whoever has a bigger game, Bosa or Hutchinson?

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:
this will come down to whoever has a bigger game, Bosa or Hutchinson?

This game will come down to which QB can handle the pressure better.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:
this will come down to whoever has a bigger game, Bosa or Hutchinson?

This game will come down to which QB can handle the pressure better.

i'll put my money on purdy and his 10 yard split vs goff and his cinder block shoes

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Sure but it will cost you $25 per hour spent working on it.

Our run defense's stats are far more important when the game is close. I am not sure why you think the opposite. The argument is that if we are in a close game against a top 5 rushing offense that our run defense won't hold up throughout the game. Hence, why I used only rushing stats when the game was close.

I don't think the opposite, lol.

What I don't agree with is the conclusion you seem to be drawing from this analysis and I also think it's missing the point of the comment you responded to (from Geidi) because that specifically is talking about # of attempts.

Our run defense isn't very good. It's tied for 10th in your analysis with four other teams (10-14) and this is just a pure YPA measurement. We are tied for 17th on the year (16-20) and are 26th in EPA/play. If you look at EPA/play it is better in the 2nd half of games than it is in the 1st* half… that's one reason why just measuring attempts would at least be interesting.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:
this will come down to whoever has a bigger game, Bosa or Hutchinson?

This game will come down to which QB can handle the pressure better.

Let's hope Goff still has PTSD from his last games as a Ram playing in Levi's--namely the losses 2019-20