49ERS vs Lions Pregame thread 2023 Season NFCCG

HELL YEAH! They're going to let the boys play!

Originally posted by tankle104:
I may be in the minority but I like the idea of bringing young back, but not for too much. The flip side is who replaces him? He isn't bad, just not great. Very serviceable with high upside. Still super young and another year in our system may be good for him. I just hope we add more wrinkles to the d line than we currently have. I don't really like the wide 9.

Javon Kinlaw and Chase Young blowup the backfield for the 2-yard loss

Watch Kinlaw after the play is over 💀 pic.twitter.com/o7ORAIlLIi

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) January 22, 2024

I agree with adding a young back. I think Mason should get a bigger role too. Hopefully we see Mason grow into a featured back, but you never know what's going on behind the scenes with Kyle and who ends up in his dog house.

Originally posted by tankle104:
I may be in the minority but I like the idea of bringing young back, but not for too much. The flip side is who replaces him? He isn't bad, just not great. Very serviceable with high upside. Still super young and another year in our system may be good for him. I just hope we add more wrinkles to the d line than we currently have. I don't really like the wide 9.

Javon Kinlaw and Chase Young blowup the backfield for the 2-yard loss

Watch Kinlaw after the play is over 💀 pic.twitter.com/o7ORAIlLIi

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) January 22, 2024

Love what Lenoir does there. We got our nickel guy no doubt. Also, watch Warner's feet before the snap. Hes primed for a run to this side. He beats the blocker to the hole. Get pushed out a bit, but seals the edge and now the weakside is completely open for Greenlaw. Didnt end up needing the LBs so much because the DLine did their job, but boy is Warner quick.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
No one wants them to lose. There are question marks on the team related to the inability to rush the passer, giving up easy yards on the ground and air, penalties in the secondary. These are red flags going into a game against one of the league's best offenses. We barely beat and should not have beaten the Packers the way the game was being played. But now that we squeaked by, it's not like everything is back to normal. Of course there is concern.

Kyle's offense covers up for a lot of defensive weaknesses. Example - run defense. Statistically 49ers are top 3 (or something like that) against the run. I feel they are more like towards middle of the pack. One reason is teams stop running against the 49er defense once they are behind. Thats a concern going into the Lions game as they do have a top flight run game.

To win - Kyle has to get ahead of them by a one or two scores to get them to start passing and give the 49er defense opportunity to create some turnovers, like in the Green Bay game.

I have heard this argument multiple times over the past several weeks. I am going to test this theory tonight. I am going to go through every game this season where the score was close at the half and see how offenses faired running the ball against us when the score was still close.

So I went through all the games. Only included defensive rushing stats when the game was close (within 2 scores) and I excluded week 18. Our run defense isn't any different when the game is close compared to what it has been overall for the season. In fact, the yards per attempt are actually slightly better at 4.09 yards per. Overall for the season we are at 4.2.

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by DrEll:
Seems like the Raven/Chiefs game is all about the titans.

we're the special Olympics game

Whats wrong with the Special Olympics they work hard to train for the sport they're competing in.

Take f**kin lame ass somewhere please don't talk about people who have special needs.

+1

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
No one wants them to lose. There are question marks on the team related to the inability to rush the passer, giving up easy yards on the ground and air, penalties in the secondary. These are red flags going into a game against one of the league's best offenses. We barely beat and should not have beaten the Packers the way the game was being played. But now that we squeaked by, it's not like everything is back to normal. Of course there is concern.

Kyle's offense covers up for a lot of defensive weaknesses. Example - run defense. Statistically 49ers are top 3 (or something like that) against the run. I feel they are more like towards middle of the pack. One reason is teams stop running against the 49er defense once they are behind. Thats a concern going into the Lions game as they do have a top flight run game.

To win - Kyle has to get ahead of them by a one or two scores to get them to start passing and give the 49er defense opportunity to create some turnovers, like in the Green Bay game.

I have heard this argument multiple times over the past several weeks. I am going to test this theory tonight. I am going to go through every game this season where the score was close at the half and see how offenses faired running the ball against us when the score was still close.

So I went through all the games. Only included defensive rushing stats when the game was close (within 2 scores) and I excluded week 18. Our run defense isn't any different when the game is close compared to what it has been overall for the season. In fact, the yards per attempt are actually slightly better at 4.09 yards per. Overall for the season we are at 4.2.

good stuff, YAC. Thanks for crunching those numbers.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So I went through all the games. Only included defensive rushing stats when the game was close (within 2 scores) and I excluded week 18. Our run defense isn't any different when the game is close compared to what it has been overall for the season. In fact, the yards per attempt are actually slightly better at 4.09 yards per. Overall for the season we are at 4.2.

What is this actually showing though? The argument isn't that our run defense is worse in close games right?

It makes complete sense to me that our run defense would be close or even slightly better than the season long average when we are defending the run in a close game.

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:
Lions #4 Rushing offense
#1 Rushing defense

they seem like a team built to beat us

we're going to come out passing

Lions have the #1 rushing defense? Luckily their pass defense his horrendous... Lets hope Kyle out coaches them this game.

DVOA, FWIW

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Baldie:

Originally posted by SlipAndSlideBosa:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:
Lions #4 Rushing offense
#1 Rushing defense

they seem like a team built to beat us

we're going to come out passing

Lions have the #1 rushing defense? Luckily their pass defense his horrendous... Lets hope Kyle out coaches them this game.

Nick Mullens almost had 400 yards against them passing.

They also have a top 5 rushing offense while our rushing defense is towards the bottom 😐. All they'll need to do really is run th ball and dominate TOP.

we have the #3 rushing defense and that with all those missed games by AA. GB tried to do that and we played as horrible as we can on offense and still won.

they still ran over us kinda, even with AA. hopefully he just needed a game to shake off some rust perhaps. (not saying he's to blame, btw)

also Chase Young needs to set his f**king edge

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Baldie:

Originally posted by SlipAndSlideBosa:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:
Lions #4 Rushing offense
#1 Rushing defense

they seem like a team built to beat us

we're going to come out passing

Lions have the #1 rushing defense? Luckily their pass defense his horrendous... Lets hope Kyle out coaches them this game.

Nick Mullens almost had 400 yards against them passing.

They also have a top 5 rushing offense while our rushing defense is towards the bottom 😐. All they'll need to do really is run th ball and dominate TOP.

we have the #3 rushing defense and that with all those missed games by AA. GB tried to do that and we played as horrible as we can on offense and still won.

they still ran over us kinda, even with AA. hopefully he just needed a game to shake off some rust perhaps. (not saying he's to blame, btw)

also Chase Young needs to set his f**king edge

Yeah, looked like he gave up the edge on Aaron Jones' 53 yarder. For the upcoming Lions game, I wonder if they'll put in Randy Gregory more in running situations.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
No one wants them to lose. There are question marks on the team related to the inability to rush the passer, giving up easy yards on the ground and air, penalties in the secondary. These are red flags going into a game against one of the league's best offenses. We barely beat and should not have beaten the Packers the way the game was being played. But now that we squeaked by, it's not like everything is back to normal. Of course there is concern.

Kyle's offense covers up for a lot of defensive weaknesses. Example - run defense. Statistically 49ers are top 3 (or something like that) against the run. I feel they are more like towards middle of the pack. One reason is teams stop running against the 49er defense once they are behind. Thats a concern going into the Lions game as they do have a top flight run game.

To win - Kyle has to get ahead of them by a one or two scores to get them to start passing and give the 49er defense opportunity to create some turnovers, like in the Green Bay game.

I have heard this argument multiple times over the past several weeks. I am going to test this theory tonight. I am going to go through every game this season where the score was close at the half and see how offenses faired running the ball against us when the score was still close.

So I went through all the games. Only included defensive rushing stats when the game was close (within 2 scores) and I excluded week 18. Our run defense isn't any different when the game is close compared to what it has been overall for the season. In fact, the yards per attempt are actually slightly better at 4.09 yards per. Overall for the season we are at 4.2.

Thats kind of the opposite of what he is saying. Rushing yards against is much lower when we are winning. Based on yours numbers, you would expect Week 1, Week 3, Week 5, Week 12, Week 13 to be easy wins. Basically, when our offense gets early leads, teama naturally run less against us and then our defensive rushing stats look amazing. But its because of the offense. In close games, are rushing defense isnt all that great. If the Lions can keep it close, and justify lots of rushing attempt, they too will accumulate yards against us.

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:
Lions #4 Rushing offense
#1 Rushing defense

they seem like a team built to beat us

we're going to come out passing

Lions have the #1 rushing defense? Luckily their pass defense his horrendous... Lets hope Kyle out coaches them this game.

DVOA, FWIW

And yet they gave up 6 ypc to the worst rushing team in the league. Not scared of any aspect of the Lions defense.

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Baldie:

Originally posted by SlipAndSlideBosa:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:
Lions #4 Rushing offense
#1 Rushing defense

they seem like a team built to beat us

we're going to come out passing

Lions have the #1 rushing defense? Luckily their pass defense his horrendous... Lets hope Kyle out coaches them this game.

Nick Mullens almost had 400 yards against them passing.

They also have a top 5 rushing offense while our rushing defense is towards the bottom 😐. All they'll need to do really is run th ball and dominate TOP.

we have the #3 rushing defense and that with all those missed games by AA. GB tried to do that and we played as horrible as we can on offense and still won.

they still ran over us kinda, even with AA. hopefully he just needed a game to shake off some rust perhaps. (not saying he's to blame, btw)

also Chase Young needs to set his f**king edge

In fairness, I think they had the #3 rushing defense thanks to quick starts and big leads, forcing other teams to throw more.

Originally posted by scooterhd:
Thats kind of the opposite of what he is saying. Rushing yards against is much lower when we are winning. Based on yours numbers, you would expect Week 1, Week 3, Week 5, Week 12, Week 13 to be easy wins. Basically, when our offense gets early leads, teama naturally run less against us and then our defensive rushing stats look amazing. But its because of the offense. In close games, are rushing defense isnt all that great. If the Lions can keep it close, and justify lots of rushing attempt, they too will accumulate yards against us.

This is what I was getting at. The argument is not that we are worse defending the run in close games. The argument is that we aren't very good at defending the run period and we are forcing teams away from it in the vast majority of our games because we have big leads in the games. A more prudent chart would show the amount of attempts we've seen per quarter and per half… and really to hone in on the detail would focus on games where we have multi-score leads.