- Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Kyle and John felt he was worth a gamble and they certainly know that if he doesn't pay off somewhere down the line that they'll look bad. We alllove draft picks but the truth is since 2016 the Niners haven't done well with 1st round picks.
They hit on Bosa, Aiyuk and Buckner
They missed on Foster, Garnett and Thomas
Lance, Kinlaw and McGlinchey are questionable.
So they hit on about 1/3 of their first round picks with 2 still to be decided. Their chances of getting a star player with those 2 first round draft picks they lost wer no better than 50/50. That's about the same as the chances of a 1st round QB making it in the NFL. Was the risk worth it. We'll see.
Overall, Kyle and John have done an amazing job building this roster to top of the league level. Critical mistakes can unwind that success however.
Use a poker analogy:
You're in a tournament and you make smart play after smart play, with minor mistakes mixed in, and continue to build your stack until you are one of the chip leaders. Then, you get reckless and you decide to push all in preflop with a suboptimal hand, say 10 J, on the hopes you hit a full house or straight on the flop and become the overwhelming chip leader. You bust out, and it's game over.
[ Edited by SmokeyJoe on Dec 25, 2022 at 12:14 PM ]