Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
One thing I'm hoping he will improve on is the short to medium game. Sustained drives. I think thats what made made Jimmy successful when he was here. If you're sustaining drives, you're tiring and frustrating the other team. While I appreciate the homeruns and the big play potential, which is something we really lacked with Jimmy, ball controlled offense is such a huge part of getting the W.

100% right on, it's the big play potential that will open up the short to medium game and if he improves there it will be fun to watch

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
One thing I'm hoping he will improve on is the short to medium game. Sustained drives. I think thats what made made Jimmy successful when he was here. If you're sustaining drives, you're tiring and frustrating the other team. While I appreciate the homeruns and the big play potential, which is something we really lacked with Jimmy, ball controlled offense is such a huge part of getting the W.

My crackpot QB rating formula has 1D% as the most important contribution, because the win correlation of moving the chains is the highest among all the stats I considered. /shameless plug.

https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl/196068-new-homegrown-rating-metric-jimmy-controversially-ranks-12th/
(still a work in progress, of course)

Your crackpot formula isn't any worse than the one used by the NFL. QB rating has been criticized as being way too simplistic and not considering of many factors that make a QB good.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
One thing I'm hoping he will improve on is the short to medium game. Sustained drives. I think thats what made made Jimmy successful when he was here. If you're sustaining drives, you're tiring and frustrating the other team. While I appreciate the homeruns and the big play potential, which is something we really lacked with Jimmy, ball controlled offense is such a huge part of getting the W.

My crackpot QB rating formula has 1D% as the most important contribution, because the win correlation of moving the chains is the highest among all the stats I considered. /shameless plug.

https://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl/196068-new-homegrown-rating-metric-jimmy-controversially-ranks-12th/
(still a work in progress, of course)

Your crackpot formula isn't any worse than the one used by the NFL. QB rating has been criticized as being way too simplistic and not considering of many factors that make a QB good.

IMHO it's way better. NFL passer rating makes no attempt to distinguish between QB and WR contribution, and it doesn't, as far as I can tell, weight anything by win%. Now, ESPN's Total QBR and NGS's QB metric seem to do these things, so if I had to choose between the three, I'd much prefer Total QBR and NGS to NFL passer rating, and because ESPN hides their formula, of the three, NGS wins hands down for me.

Here is their rating:
https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-passing-score-metric

I'm doing something similar, but I'm not comparing anything to a league average baseline, and I'm not doing any advanced per play stuff (like EPA). I'm trying to basically do what NFL passer rating did, but account for non-QB contribution and weight everything to win percentage (similar to what NGS does, except they use Win Probability).

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by pillageDatazz:
Now chris simms turn...

Grant Cohn took offense at Simms saying "Anybody you talk to who saw training camp last year," but failed to speak to Cohn, who claims that Trey Lance looked really good in camp, and that he gave the 49ers a better chance than Jimmy.

Of course, it's Cohn.

It's also most of 49er twitter that actually did go to camp that said Simms is full of s**t.

Guys like Jason Aponte, Javier Vega, Kyle Posey, John Middlekauff, Guy Haberman, Brad Graham, Jordan Elliott and even our own beat writers.

Tinfoil hat time:

Simms is a close friend of Shanahan. Shanahan wants to trade Garoppolo for decent value, but has very little leverage because teams know he wants to move on to Lance. So, Simms—at Shanahan's behest— leaks that the 49ers aren't secure in Lance, hoping to make it seem like a legitimate possibility they keep Garoppolo if no one trades for him.

Or maybe Simms only spoke to a couple of guys about it, and that's what they said.

Occam's Razor would suggest that Sims has dug himself a hole by ranking Lance much lower than Mac Jones during the draft process. Then he looked like a fool when Kyle, a good friend of his, took Lance. I think people would rather be right than watch a guy they ranked lower than 99% of people, succeed.

Originally posted by Ghostofabshelmet:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
I went back and watched the Houston game. I have been too critical. He had some really good passes in that game. It was his second start without the benefit of off-season with the first team, and most importantly, did not have the benefit of playing multiple games and getting into a groove. The running is still something I'm not sold on.

I don't necessarily mind the running I don't think he will ever have rg3, Kaep or Lamar like running efficiecnh but I just want him fast enough for when the play breaks down he can buy time in the backfield. I think his accuracy issues are overblown his intermediate accuracy was fine from I saw once he got settled in but something I hope he cleans up tho is those short passes he had a nice one in his td to Mitchell against the Texans but he also had cost some yac with a bad throw to Juice and missed deebo completely. It was something that happened occasionally in his ndsu film as well so hopefully that cleans up.

The problem is people who didn't spend the time to watch his college games have a vision of him being a running QB But if you watched his tape you would know that he is a QB who will use his legs to get out of trouble and extend plays. He will have the occasional play when he breaks a run but he is not a Kap or Jackson type runner. If that's what you thought you were going to see then you are wrong. He is going to be a mix of Allen and Mahomes running styles. Running not comparing there passing abilities but he may land somewhere in between them.

Originally posted by fan49:
It is not make or break for trey

Used make and break and didnt use cake. Missed opportunity. Underwhelming.

Originally posted by Izyniner:
The problem is people who didn't spend the time to watch his college games have a vision of him being a running QB But if you watched his tape you would know that he is a QB who will use his legs to get out of trouble and extend plays. He will have the occasional play when he breaks a run but he is not a Kap or Jackson type runner. If that's what you thought you were going to see then you are wrong. He is going to be a mix of Allen and Mahomes running styles. Running not comparing there passing abilities but he may land somewhere in between them.

The only time Lance ran a lot at NDSU was against JMU in the Championship. JMU was not prepared for it and lost.

Originally posted by NDSU:
The only time Lance ran a lot at NDSU was against JMU in the Championship. JMU was not prepared for it and lost.

He ran for 1,100 yards in one season. For a QB thats pretty considerable yardage on the ground. Allen in college didn't go above 500 in any season. Mahomes had less. Even for NDSU that's a lot of yards on the ground. Wentz never had more than 600. At least in college, his use was closer to a Lamar Jackson.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by NDSU:
The only time Lance ran a lot at NDSU was against JMU in the Championship. JMU was not prepared for it and lost.

He ran for 1,100 yards in one season. For a QB thats pretty considerable yardage on the ground. Allen in college didn't go above 500 in any season. Mahomes had less. Even for NDSU that's a lot of yards on the ground. Wentz never had more than 600. At least in college, his use was closer to a Lamar Jackson.

Why you gotta do an NDSU fan like that, Phoenix?

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by pillageDatazz:
Now chris simms turn...

Grant Cohn took offense at Simms saying "Anybody you talk to who saw training camp last year," but failed to speak to Cohn, who claims that Trey Lance looked really good in camp, and that he gave the 49ers a better chance than Jimmy.

Of course, it's Cohn.

It's also most of 49er twitter that actually did go to camp that said Simms is full of s**t.

Guys like Jason Aponte, Javier Vega, Kyle Posey, John Middlekauff, Guy Haberman, Brad Graham, Jordan Elliott and even our own beat writers.

Tinfoil hat time:

Simms is a close friend of Shanahan. Shanahan wants to trade Garoppolo for decent value, but has very little leverage because teams know he wants to move on to Lance. So, Simms—at Shanahan's behest— leaks that the 49ers aren't secure in Lance, hoping to make it seem like a legitimate possibility they keep Garoppolo if no one trades for him.

Or maybe Simms only spoke to a couple of guys about it, and that's what they said.

Also Simms talks out of his ass at such a rate it may well be a second mouth.

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by pillageDatazz:
Now chris simms turn...

Grant Cohn took offense at Simms saying "Anybody you talk to who saw training camp last year," but failed to speak to Cohn, who claims that Trey Lance looked really good in camp, and that he gave the 49ers a better chance than Jimmy.

Of course, it's Cohn.

It's also most of 49er twitter that actually did go to camp that said Simms is full of s**t.

Guys like Jason Aponte, Javier Vega, Kyle Posey, John Middlekauff, Guy Haberman, Brad Graham, Jordan Elliott and even our own beat writers.

Tinfoil hat time:

Simms is a close friend of Shanahan. Shanahan wants to trade Garoppolo for decent value, but has very little leverage because teams know he wants to move on to Lance. So, Simms—at Shanahan's behest— leaks that the 49ers aren't secure in Lance, hoping to make it seem like a legitimate possibility they keep Garoppolo if no one trades for him.

Or maybe Simms only spoke to a couple of guys about it, and that's what they said.

Also Simms talks out of his ass at such a rate it may well be a second mouth.

There is that.

Originally posted by Chance:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by pillageDatazz:
Now chris simms turn...

Grant Cohn took offense at Simms saying "Anybody you talk to who saw training camp last year," but failed to speak to Cohn, who claims that Trey Lance looked really good in camp, and that he gave the 49ers a better chance than Jimmy.

Of course, it's Cohn.

It's also most of 49er twitter that actually did go to camp that said Simms is full of s**t.

Guys like Jason Aponte, Javier Vega, Kyle Posey, John Middlekauff, Guy Haberman, Brad Graham, Jordan Elliott and even our own beat writers.

Tinfoil hat time:

Simms is a close friend of Shanahan. Shanahan wants to trade Garoppolo for decent value, but has very little leverage because teams know he wants to move on to Lance. So, Simms—at Shanahan's behest— leaks that the 49ers aren't secure in Lance, hoping to make it seem like a legitimate possibility they keep Garoppolo if no one trades for him.

Or maybe Simms only spoke to a couple of guys about it, and that's what they said.

Occam's Razor would suggest that Sims has dug himself a hole by ranking Lance much lower than Mac Jones during the draft process. Then he looked like a fool when Kyle, a good friend of his, took Lance. I think people would rather be right than watch a guy they ranked lower than 99% of people, succeed.

This is likely the cause for all of this.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by NDSU:
The only time Lance ran a lot at NDSU was against JMU in the Championship. JMU was not prepared for it and lost.

He ran for 1,100 yards in one season. For a QB thats pretty considerable yardage on the ground. Allen in college didn't go above 500 in any season. Mahomes had less. Even for NDSU that's a lot of yards on the ground. Wentz never had more than 600. At least in college, his use was closer to a Lamar Jackson.

From watching his college games, he definitely had a lot of designed runs, often right up the middle. I think Shanahan tried to give him a game plan he was familiar with against Arizona, but hopefully that won't be the case going forward now that he has fully mastered every intricacy of the offense.

Trey going through his progressions in college and preseason and making some nice throws.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by pillageDatazz:
Now chris simms turn...

Grant Cohn took offense at Simms saying "Anybody you talk to who saw training camp last year," but failed to speak to Cohn, who claims that Trey Lance looked really good in camp, and that he gave the 49ers a better chance than Jimmy.

Of course, it's Cohn.

It's also most of 49er twitter that actually did go to camp that said Simms is full of s**t.

Guys like Jason Aponte, Javier Vega, Kyle Posey, John Middlekauff, Guy Haberman, Brad Graham, Jordan Elliott and even our own beat writers.

The problem with these sports media guys is that they always need to talk about something regardless of whether or not there is anything worth talking about. This one guy's tweet has been like an oasis in the desert for these guys and has probably generated 1000 hours of podcasts by itself. Now that the fervor over the initial tweet is dying down, Simms has to go stoke the fires to generate more discussion.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
He ran for 1,100 yards in one season. For a QB thats pretty considerable yardage on the ground. Allen in college didn't go above 500 in any season. Mahomes had less. Even for NDSU that's a lot of yards on the ground. Wentz never had more than 600. At least in college, his use was closer to a Lamar Jackson.

Trey Lance 2019
Over 16 games.
169 rushes total.
Avg ~10 rush attempts per game. Figure 2 were scrambles. 8 rushes per game is pretty average for a NDSU QB.
Its not his fault that he was good at it and his average yards are higher. 30 were against JMU in the final.

Quincy Patterson 2021
Over 14 games
113 rushes total.
Avg ~8 rush attempts per game.

Easton Stick 2018
Over 15 games.
117 rushes total.
Avg ~8 rush attempts per game.

Carson Wentz 2014
Over 16 games
138 rushes total.
Avg ~8 rush attempts per game.

Not trying to argue, just putting out the facts