Realistically looking at the situation who is under center 2021?

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
The % of getting any production as of those great QBs are slim. Just noting that it has happned before doesn't mean anything.

The odds are still against you, they are not better. Getting the top OL, CB or Edge will help the most

Kyle and John aren't drafting based on odds and percentages of hitting based on where the prospect is selected though. They are drafting based on their evaluations.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Brady, A.Rodgers. Add in Joe and there are three of the very best. So maybe not often, but some of the very best....that is odd, isn't it? And Mahomes almost made it past 12, but KC lucked out by others not drafting him earlier. Andy Reid KNEW tho.

I think Kyle knows the kind of QB that works in his system. Jimmy's did fine (when healthy) in this system. But drafting and developing a QB (BeatHard) versus having Jimmy on tape for (I think) 2+ NFL games is I think a lot harder. In other words Kyle had more info on Jimmy than he did on BeatHard at the time of pulling the trigger and making the decision (draft/trade).

I think Kyle just has to get the *kind* of pocket passer he likes high in the draft if Jimmy's health is a concern. If not then get a QB low in the draft with more upside but raw (mobile QB but a raw passer) and develop him, and do that every year until he finds a passer or until Jimmy can't start any more and Kyle has to go high in the draft for his replacement. This does two things (1) it forces the scout team to scout every QB (2) gets actual talent in the bullpen instead of having an empty cupboard.

What's kind of surreal for me is that had Jimmy hit Sanders for that TD, the whole story on Jimmy is completely different. Even if Mahomes comes back with a game winning drive, the narrative would still no longer be "Jimmy is a terrible QB" but rather Mahomes is just great and came thru in the clutch to win.

I'm not defending Jimmy by any means here, I think we need to upgrade because he's often injured and he isn't an elite guy that's worth his price. Rather, I am actually defending the regime here for sticking with him to this point because IMO they made mostly the right moves to get a ring. Yeah they whiffed on not evaluating and drafting either Watson or Mahomes in year 1, but it was a matter of a few feet that completely changed the entire timeline we are living in.

I have faith that we will figure out the QB situation long term under Kyle/John. Maybe not this offseason due to the circumstances, but definitely by next offseason.

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
The % of getting any production as of those great QBs are slim. Just noting that it has happned before doesn't mean anything.

The odds are still against you, they are not better. Getting the top OL, CB or Edge will help the most

Kyle and John aren't drafting based on odds and percentages of hitting based on where the prospect is selected though. They are drafting based on their evaluations.

I don't think any Org has gone off percentages to make picks. But that is just reality of hindsight towards QBs in the past drafts

I don't think they leaked out their draft evaluations saying they are picking QB at 12 or not?

I think it's a waste and i also don't see the Org settling for the short end of the stick with QBs, rather get someone who's better at a position of need

Originally posted by WildBill:
For those clamoring we NEED to move up in the draft to draft our franchise QB. There is no guarantee that they will be better than Jimmy G. - healthier yes, but not better. Plus the cost.

2019:
1. Kyler Murray
6. Daniel Jones
15. D Haskins

2018:
1. Baker Mayfield
3. Sam Darnold
10. Josh Rosen
11. Lamar Jackson

2017:
1. Mitch Trubisky
10. Patrick Mahomes
12 Deshuan Watson

2016:
1. Jared Goff, California, Rams
2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles
26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos

2015:
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans

2014:
3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars
22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns
32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings

2013:
16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills

2012:
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins
8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins
22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns

2011:
1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers
8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans
10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars
12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2010:
1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams
25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos

2009:
1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions
5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets
17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers

2008:
3. Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons
18. Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens

2007:
1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders
22. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, Browns

2006:
3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans
10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals
11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos

2005:
1. Alex Smith, Utah, 49ers
24. Aaron Rodgers, Cal, Packers
25. Jason Campbell, Auburn, Redskins

2004:
1. Eli Manning, Mississippi, Chargers
4. Philip Rivers, North Carolina State, Giants
11. Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (Ohio), Steelers
22. J.P. Losman, Tulane, Bills

2003:
1. Carson Palmer, USC, Bengals
7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars
19. Kyle Boller, Cal, Ravens
22. Rex Grossman, Florida, Bears
2002:
1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans
3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions
32. Patrick Ramsey, Tulane, Redskins

2001:
1. Michael Vick, Virginia Tech, Falcons

2000:
18. Chad Pennington, Marshall, Jets

If you look at the entire 2016 QB draft class it's crazy -
The rams traded the 2016 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks, along with the 2017 first and 3rd round picks to move up to select:
Jared Goff - whom they then traded, along with the 2022 and 2023 1st round picks and a 3rd pick to get Matthew Stafford.
They spent 5 draft picks to get Jared Goff and then 3 more to get rid of him......

The eagles actually had to acquire a higher first round to throw in to get Wentz, so they first traded their 1st overall, Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to get the 8th overall pick, they then traded the 8th, a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick, the 2017 1st round pick, and a 2018 2nd round pick to get Carson Wentz, who now looks to be getting traded away.

Denver - Paxton Lynch who's out of the NFL now

2nd round - Christian Hackenburg

NE Jacoby Brissett, 3rd round

CLE - Cody Kessler, 3rd round

Raiders - Connor Cook, 4th round

Cowboys - Dak Prescott, 4th round

Buf - Cardale Jones, 4th round

KC - Kevin Hogan, 5th round

WAS - Nate Sudefeld, 5th round

then nothing worth noting after that.

That's crazy. 2 QB's teams dumped massive draft capital to acquire and now both guys are most likely traded.

A bunch of guys out of the league and the only "sure" franchise guy suffered a horrible leg injury and it's unclear if he'll return to his team.

Lesson being - don't trade away the farm for a QB.

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
The % of getting any production as of those great QBs are slim. Just noting that it has happned before doesn't mean anything.

The odds are still against you, they are not better. Getting the top OL, CB or Edge will help the most

Kyle and John aren't drafting based on odds and percentages of hitting based on where the prospect is selected though. They are drafting based on their evaluations.

This for sure.

• Originally posted by jonnydel:If you look at the entire 2016 QB draft class it's crazy - The rams traded the 2016 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks, along with the 2017 first and 3rd round picks to move up to select:Jared Goff - whom they then traded, along with the 2022 and 2023 1st round picks and a 3rd pick to get Matthew Stafford.They spent 5 draft picks to get Jared Goff and then 3 more to get rid of him......The eagles actually had to acquire a higher first round to throw in to get Wentz, so they first traded their 1st overall, Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to get the 8th overall pick, they then traded the 8th, a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick, the 2017 1st round pick, and a 2018 2nd round pick to get Carson Wentz, who now looks to be getting traded away.Denver - Paxton Lynch who's out of the NFL now2nd round - Christian HackenburgNE Jacoby Brissett, 3rd roundCLE - Cody Kessler, 3rd roundRaiders - Connor Cook, 4th roundCowboys - Dak Prescott, 4th roundBuf - Cardale Jones, 4th roundKC - Kevin Hogan, 5th roundWAS - Nate Sudefeld, 5th roundthen nothing worth noting after that.That's crazy. 2 QB's teams dumped massive draft capital to acquire and now both guys are most likely traded.A bunch of guys out of the league and the only "sure" franchise guy suffered a horrible leg injury and it's unclear if he'll return to his team.Lesson being - don't trade away the farm for a QB.

Depends on what you define as trading the farm but moving up for QBs sure worked out well for Kansas City and Buffalo. It just comes down to how much you like a QB and if you are all in on them, well then you make whatever move is necessary to acquire them. There's always going to be hits and misses in the draft and when it comes to QB, once you get out of the 2nd round, historically it turns into an absolute crapshoot. Your best odds of finding a QB are and always have been in the first round.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

• Originally posted by jonnydel:If you look at the entire 2016 QB draft class it's crazy - The rams traded the 2016 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks, along with the 2017 first and 3rd round picks to move up to select:Jared Goff - whom they then traded, along with the 2022 and 2023 1st round picks and a 3rd pick to get Matthew Stafford.They spent 5 draft picks to get Jared Goff and then 3 more to get rid of him......The eagles actually had to acquire a higher first round to throw in to get Wentz, so they first traded their 1st overall, Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to get the 8th overall pick, they then traded the 8th, a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick, the 2017 1st round pick, and a 2018 2nd round pick to get Carson Wentz, who now looks to be getting traded away.Denver - Paxton Lynch who's out of the NFL now2nd round - Christian HackenburgNE Jacoby Brissett, 3rd roundCLE - Cody Kessler, 3rd roundRaiders - Connor Cook, 4th roundCowboys - Dak Prescott, 4th roundBuf - Cardale Jones, 4th roundKC - Kevin Hogan, 5th roundWAS - Nate Sudefeld, 5th roundthen nothing worth noting after that.That's crazy. 2 QB's teams dumped massive draft capital to acquire and now both guys are most likely traded.A bunch of guys out of the league and the only "sure" franchise guy suffered a horrible leg injury and it's unclear if he'll return to his team.Lesson being - don't trade away the farm for a QB.

Depends on what you define as trading the farm but moving up for QBs sure worked out well for Kansas City and Buffalo. It just comes down to how much you like a QB and if you are all in on them, well then you make whatever move is necessary to acquire them. There's always going to be hits and misses in the draft and when it comes to QB, once you get out of the 2nd round, historically it turns into an absolute crapshoot. Your best odds of finding a QB are and always have been in the first round.

Then again, you have the Terry Bradshaw situation where he sucked as a top pick until he got really better after Noll drafted Franco, and became a Hall of fame player after the '74 draft. Point being, what is Mahomes if he didn't have Kelce, Watkins, Robinson, Hill and Hardman. I'm betting you give any QB all those players, and their play will be elevated.

It's definitely going to be Jimmy, but I think we should try to trade up and grab Zach Wilson or wait for a guy like Trask in the 2nd. Whomever Shanahan ends up choosing I'd feel good about.

Originally posted by jonnydel:
If you look at the entire 2016 QB draft class it's crazy -
The rams traded the 2016 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks, along with the 2017 first and 3rd round picks to move up to select:
Jared Goff - whom they then traded, along with the 2022 and 2023 1st round picks and a 3rd pick to get Matthew Stafford.
They spent 5 draft picks to get Jared Goff and then 3 more to get rid of him......

The eagles actually had to acquire a higher first round to throw in to get Wentz, so they first traded their 1st overall, Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to get the 8th overall pick, they then traded the 8th, a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick, the 2017 1st round pick, and a 2018 2nd round pick to get Carson Wentz, who now looks to be getting traded away.

Denver - Paxton Lynch who's out of the NFL now

2nd round - Christian Hackenburg

NE Jacoby Brissett, 3rd round

CLE - Cody Kessler, 3rd round

Raiders - Connor Cook, 4th round

Cowboys - Dak Prescott, 4th round

Buf - Cardale Jones, 4th round

KC - Kevin Hogan, 5th round

WAS - Nate Sudefeld, 5th round

then nothing worth noting after that.

That's crazy. 2 QB's teams dumped massive draft capital to acquire and now both guys are most likely traded.

A bunch of guys out of the league and the only "sure" franchise guy suffered a horrible leg injury and it's unclear if he'll return to his team.

Lesson being - don't trade away the farm for a QB.

I like this argument.You Shoulda been a lawyer.

Ok so short of a massive blockbuster trade for Deshaun Watson, Jimmy G will be our starting QB. But there's no doubt they need to address the QB situation, by getting a solid back up and lighting a fire under Jimmy's ass. As much as I like Trey Lance or Wilson, something tells me they're not gonna pull the trigger on a rookie QB with the first pick, we have to many needs.

2021 2nd & 2022 3rd to the Jets for QB Sam Darnold

Jets will pick Fields and Saleh will turn around and hook us up. 49ers use the #12 on a top rated CB or BPA. That's the move. Lynch and Shanny are conservative, they are not going to gamble the teams future (or their jobs) like the Rams did. And I think it's possible that Kyle could groom Darnold into playing like Josh Allen in a season or two.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by WildBill:
For those clamoring we NEED to move up in the draft to draft our franchise QB. There is no guarantee that they will be better than Jimmy G. - healthier yes, but not better. Plus the cost.

2019:
1. Kyler Murray
6. Daniel Jones
15. D Haskins

2018:
1. Baker Mayfield
3. Sam Darnold
10. Josh Rosen
11. Lamar Jackson

2017:
1. Mitch Trubisky
10. Patrick Mahomes
12 Deshuan Watson

2016:
1. Jared Goff, California, Rams
2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles
26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos

2015:
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans

2014:
3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars
22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns
32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings

2013:
16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills

2012:
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins
8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins
22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns

2011:
1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers
8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans
10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars
12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2010:
1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams
25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos

2009:
1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions
5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets
17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers

2008:
3. Matt Ryan, Boston College, Falcons
18. Joe Flacco, Delaware, Ravens

2007:
1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders
22. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, Browns

2006:
3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans
10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals
11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos

2005:
1. Alex Smith, Utah, 49ers
24. Aaron Rodgers, Cal, Packers
25. Jason Campbell, Auburn, Redskins

2004:
1. Eli Manning, Mississippi, Chargers
4. Philip Rivers, North Carolina State, Giants
11. Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (Ohio), Steelers
22. J.P. Losman, Tulane, Bills

2003:
1. Carson Palmer, USC, Bengals
7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars
19. Kyle Boller, Cal, Ravens
22. Rex Grossman, Florida, Bears
2002:
1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans
3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions
32. Patrick Ramsey, Tulane, Redskins

2001:
1. Michael Vick, Virginia Tech, Falcons

2000:
18. Chad Pennington, Marshall, Jets

If you look at the entire 2016 QB draft class it's crazy -
The rams traded the 2016 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks, along with the 2017 first and 3rd round picks to move up to select:
Jared Goff - whom they then traded, along with the 2022 and 2023 1st round picks and a 3rd pick to get Matthew Stafford.
They spent 5 draft picks to get Jared Goff and then 3 more to get rid of him......

The eagles actually had to acquire a higher first round to throw in to get Wentz, so they first traded their 1st overall, Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to get the 8th overall pick, they then traded the 8th, a 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick, the 2017 1st round pick, and a 2018 2nd round pick to get Carson Wentz, who now looks to be getting traded away.

Denver - Paxton Lynch who's out of the NFL now

2nd round - Christian Hackenburg

NE Jacoby Brissett, 3rd round

CLE - Cody Kessler, 3rd round

Raiders - Connor Cook, 4th round

Cowboys - Dak Prescott, 4th round

Buf - Cardale Jones, 4th round

KC - Kevin Hogan, 5th round

WAS - Nate Sudefeld, 5th round

then nothing worth noting after that.

That's crazy. 2 QB's teams dumped massive draft capital to acquire and now both guys are most likely traded.

A bunch of guys out of the league and the only "sure" franchise guy suffered a horrible leg injury and it's unclear if he'll return to his team.

Lesson being - don't trade away the farm for a QB.

Absolutely correct. Outside of mahommes, I can't think of situation where trading the farm for a top qb worked.

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
Absolutely correct. Outside of mahommes, I can't think of situation where trading the farm for a top qb worked.

Watson is looking pretty good but I guess they didn't "trade the farm". Also, these teams are trading for unknown quantities, Watson is a top 3 established QBin the league.

Not sure I get the infacuation with Watson. He is a great QB but has not elavated the Texans to the point of being competitive. A QB justifying such a ransom should make players around them better. I just dont see this with Watson thus far. This is not to say he shouldnt be a highly touted prospect. But the way media and people in general are drouling over this guy is a bit much. Football is still a team sport even with the greater emphasis of the QB position in the past 10-15 years. To give up that much for Watson could be detrimental to a team that does not draft/develop players in the later rounds very well. The cap hit could also limit teams in the future to sign other talented players. We It is almost as if people view this transaction through the lense of Madden.

I liked the potential for Stafford for a 1st rounder but that is no longer possible. JG will most likely be our QB in 2021 so the team needs to solidify the OL and have a back up QB to challenge JG. Rosen may be able to push him. Rosen really has not been given much of an opportunity in the league. Maybe KS can develop him into a servicable QB. Rosen should have incentive.

Originally posted by illinois9er:

Originally posted by JoseCortez:
Absolutely correct. Outside of mahommes, I can't think of situation where trading the farm for a top qb worked.

Watson is looking pretty good but I guess they didn't "trade the farm". Also, these teams are trading for unknown quantities, Watson is a top 3 established QBin the league.

THAT is the deciding factor - IMO.

Watson is the 2nd best QB in the NFL [debatable but damn close]

He has proven - he can make every throw - can scramble and run and his a high character guy.

He has leadership abilities, is smart and is a Fierce competitor.

QB's in the draft are Unproven as far as the NFL is concerned.

Another point - will we be in the SB if we use our #1 & 2 picks?

I think we will be w/Watson.