Team Building; 2021 Off-Season Personnel Decisions

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
^^^Thx bud.

I think the 49ers offseason signing will come down to whether or not Dee Ford is still a 49er or not, my hope is he takes a significant pay cut, after the team releases Weston Richburg, and tenders Moseley at the 2nd rd level, Dwelley, Harris & Mullens(to trade him) at original round level, and ERFA Daniel Brunskill, with a $180M floor(it could go up to $190M), I have the 49ers at $14,649,768 in cap room, this is based on like I said the $180M cap, plus $3.125M credits for Sherman & Compton's incentives, also $2,706,250 for per game roster bonuses counting in 2020, but the player didn't earn it, and $304,000 in UDFA base salary guarantee pay backs, since players can't double dip in the NFL, well as a rookie they can't, if a contract is terminated when they have GTD money in their base salary, the player can file termination pay, and end up getting the money, plus whatever else the player makes, but you can only do it 1 time in your career.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by NinerGM:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by NinerGM:
Um don't we need TWO CBs?

What are you referring to? My 1 rookie CB, they probably should go with 2, especially if they lose either verrett and/or k'waun.

Oh no it was aimed at you specifically - I was just thinking wow we really aren't going to have a secondary if we lose K'Waun or even Verrett. I hope we're looking to add at least 2 from the draft.

Gotcha, I agree we need to draft 2 cornerbacks even if k'waun and/or verrett leave.

So many good nuggets in this thread. I hope I didn't leave out any comments to respond to. Did you mean we should draft 2 corners even if we sign K'Waun and Verrett? I'm thinking we need to be developing the next group of DBs that will take over for the current group. Or at least give us flexibility 2-3 years down the road where we can say goodbye to a player and not be hurt too hard. I love Verrett's play and love the Verrett + Mosely combo. What I don't like is Verrett's injury history, which is partially why I wanted us to resign Sherman for so long (who in spite of his injuries, doesn't have nearly the injury history that Verrett does). I'm thinking 4 corners behind Verrett and Mosely, which means we should be targetting two in the draft. One on day 2 and the other on day 3 preferably. It doesn't count any UDFA corners they may bring in.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
My updated 2021 offseason plan.

UFAs re-signed(Includes camp bodies, and players competing for roster spots):

QB C.J. Beathard
FB Kyle Juszyzck
TE Jordan Reed
C Ben Garland
C Hroniss Grasu
LT Trent Williams
DE Kerry Hyder Jr.
DE Jordan Willis
DE Ronald Blair III
NT D.J. Jones
LB Joe Walker
CB Jason Verrett
CB K'Waun Williams
CB Dontae Johnson
CB Jamar Taylor

RFAs re-signed:

QB Nick Mullens (With intent on trading him for a mid-late rounder)
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
TE Ross Dwelley
CB Emmanuel Moseley
SS Marcell Harris
LS Taybor Pepper

ERFAs re-signed:

QB Josh Rosen
WR River Cracraft
C/RG Daniel Brunskill
CB Ken Webster
FS Kai Nacua

Extensions:

LG Laken Tomlinson
MLB Fred Warner
SS Tarvarius Moore

Pay Cuts:

C Weston Richburg
DE Dee Ford

UFAs not re-signed or lost:

RB Tevin Coleman
RB Jerick McKinnon
WR Trent Taylor
WR Kendrick Bourne
C Tony Bergstrom
RG Tom Compton
DE Ezekiel Ansah
DE Dion Jordan
DT Solomon Thomas
CB Richard Sherman
SS Jaquiski Tartt

Pre Draft Roster:

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, Josh Johnson, Josh Rosen
RB: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., JaMycal Hasty, Austin Walter
FB: Kyle Juszyczk, Josh Hokit
WR: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Richie James Jr., Jalen Hurd, Travis Benjamin, Kevin White, River Cracraft, Matt Cole, Chris Thompson, Jauan Jennings, Austin Proehl
TE: George Kittle, Jordan Reed, Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner, Chase Harrell
C: Daniel Brunskill, Weston Richburg, Ben Garland, Hroniss Grasu, Jake Brendel
OG: Laken Tomlinson, Colton McKivitz, Dakoda Shepley, Isaiah Williams
OT: Trent Williams, Mike McGlinchey, Justin Skule, Shon Coleman, Corbin Kaufusi
DE: Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Kerry Hyder Jr., Ronald Blair III, Jordan Willis, Daeshon Hall, Alex Barrett
DT: Javon Kinlaw, Kentavius Street
NT: D.J. Jones, Kevin Givens, Darrion Daniels, Josiah Coatney
LB: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Azeez Al-Shaair, Mark Nzeocha, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Joe Walker, Jonas Griffith
CB: Jason Verrett, Emmanuel Moseley, K'Waun Williams, Adonis Alexander, Ahkello Witherspoon, Tim Harris Jr., Dontae Johnson, Ken Webster, Jamar Taylor
FS: Jimmie Ward, Jared Mayden, Kai Nacua
SS: Tarvarius Moore, Marcell Harris, Obi Melifonwu, Chris Edwards
ST: Robbie Gould, Mitch Wishnowsky, Taybor Pepper

Ideal 2021 Roster:

OFFENSE:

QB(2/3): 10 Jimmy Garoppolo(2022)/ 3 C.J. Beathard(2021), 2 Josh Rosen(2021), or Rookie Draft Pick(2024)/ 4 Nick Mullens(2021)
RB(3/4): 31 Raheem Mostert(2021)/ 30 Jeff Wilson Jr.(2021)/ 38 JaMycal Hasty(2021)/ 48 Austin Walter(2021), 40 Josh Hokit(2021), or a UDFA(2023)
FB(1): 44 Kyle Juszyzck(2025)
WR(6): 19 Deebo Samuel(2022)/ 11 Brandon Aiyuk(2023)/ 14 Jalen Hurd(2022)/ three of these players 13 Richie James Jr.(2021), 14 Kevin White(2021), 17 Travis Benjamin(2021), 17 Jauan Jennings(2021), or Rookie Draft Pick(2024)
TE(4): 85 George Kittle(2025)/ 81 Jordan Reed(2021)/ 82 Ross Dwelley(2022)/ 89 Charlie Woerner(2023)
C(2): 58 Weston Richburg(2021)/ 63 Ben Garland(2021), 50 Hroniss Grasu(2021), or a Draft Pick or Veteran
OG(4): 75 Laken Tomlinson(2025)/ 60 Daniel Brunskill(2021)/ 68 Colton McKivitz(2023)/ 1 of these players 61 Dakoda Shepley(2022), Veteran, or Rookie Draft Pick C/OG(2024)
OT(3): 71 Trent Williams(2025)/ 69 Mike McGlinchey(2021)/ either 67 Justin Skule(2022), 78 Shon Coleman(2021), or a Rookie(2024)

DEFENSE:

DE(6): 97 Nick Bosa(2022)/ 91 Arik Armstead(2024)/ 55 Dee Ford(2021)/ 98 Ronald Blair III(2021)/ 92 Kerry Hyder Jr.(2025)/ Rookie Draft Pick(2024)
DT(2/3): 99 Javon Kinlaw(2023)/ 90 Kevin Givens(2021)/ 95 Kentavius Street(2021) or Rookie Draft Pick(2024)
NT(2): 93 D.J. Jones(2021)/ 65 Darrion Daniels(2021)
LB(5): 54 Fred Warner(2026)/ 57 Dre Grenlaw(2022)/ three of these players 53 Mark Nzeocha(2021), 51 Azeez Al-Shaair(2021), 45 Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles(2021), 59 Joe Walker(2021), or a Rookie Draft Pick(2024)
CB(5): 41 Emmanuel Moseley(2025)/ 24 K'Waun Williams(2025)/ 22 Jason Verrett(2025)/ Rookie Draft Pick(2024)/ 1 of the following 23 Ahkello Witherspoon(2021), 27 Dontae Johnson(2021), or 47 Jamar Taylor(2021)
FS(2): 20 Jimmie Ward(2022)/ Rookie Draft Pick(2024) or 43 Jared Mayden(2021)
SS(2): 33 Tarvarius Moore(2025)/ 36 Marcell Harris(2023)

SPECIAL TEAMS:

PK(1): 9 Robbie Gould(2022)
P(1): 6 Mitch Wishnowsky(2022)
LS(1): 46 Taybor Pepper(2022)

Notes: The numbers in parenthesis are the year they're contract runs out.

I am loving the idea roster along with when the contracts run out. I am guessing you are not assuming 5th year options picked up for McGlinchey, Bosa, KInlaw, and Aiyuk. I am also glad you adjusted the original plan and have Solomon Thomas not being resigned. It may be in response to his quote about if the deal is right, but he shouldn't have been a part of any offseason plan to begin with. We can draft a guy late or sign an UDFA and get the same production. If we took some high SPARQ guy with designs on playing him outside on base downs and inside on 3rd, similar to Thomas, I'd be fine with that too. But the reality is, the guy has shown nothing in 4 years. We are at the point where certain guys should be pushed off the roster- either by an expiring contract or a younger player is taking their place.

Now to address your position groups

QB- There may be some, probably over half the board that may not like that lineup, but with a beefed up O-line that can pass protect WITHOUT a dominant run game, I think we can compete for a playoff spot, whether Jimmy is our starter or whoever earns the backup spot.
RB- Good group an I'm hoping they can run for 2400 + in 2021.
WR- The group I am most excited about. We never got to see Samuel and Aiyuk at the same time much. I'm also hoping either Richie James or a rookie with some deep speed can earn that number 3 spot. Rounding out the group with hopefully a healthy Hurd, and we should have a really great mix of diverse skillsets at receiver.
TE- If resign Reed, we are in good shape. Hoping to find a Kittle-like situation on day 3. Some player that was underutilized in the passing game + good blocking skills and good speed. It doesn't need to be Kittle speed, but 4.6/4.7 would be nice.
OL- The group that concerns me most. I'd rather Brunskill be at RT so McGlinchey can have some competition. It would put us in a position where we'd have 4 tackles, assuming Trent Williams resigns and McGlinchey gets himself together. The fourth is either Shon Coleman or Justin Skule, though I'd expect Coleman to win that battle.
DE- A really good looking group. After the receivers, I'm most excited to see them run wild again. If we can add a player that can just be Dee Ford light in the draft, I'd argue we will be better than the 2019 group at the edge because of the amount of depth. Bosa, Hyder, Armstead (with the other talent around him IS dangerous), Blair, and Willis can keep the heat on all game long. Amazing how we looked in 2017-2018 at edge compared to what we could have in 2021.
DT- Doesn't appear to be as dominant as we did in 2019, even if KInlaw takes a leap. However with all the heat coming from the edges, there will be plenty of opportunity. I'm expecting us to draft two players on day 3 that can play that 2i position as well as one comfortable playing inside and outside.
LB- one player away from being an elite group. Hoping to add a player on day 3 to the mix.
S- Moore/Ward looks a lot better than Ward/Tartt. Will definitely need to add a player on day 3.
CB- The starters look good if we can bring back Williams, Verrett, and Mosely. I'm actually okay bringing back Witherspoon. Has the talent, and even if what we've seen is the best we'll get, that's good enough to be the 5th or 6th corner on a minimum deal. Hoping we add two rookies at this position. One on day 2 and another on day 3.

All in all, we have good talent signed. We have a lot of talent to sign and thankfully we have a lot of draft picks to add to our depth. I was hoping by some miracle we can have a real camp this year. Fingers crossed.

IOriginally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by NinerGM:
All great points of discussion Cisco. I'm sort of in the same boat and admittedly I'm struggling with changing how I'm thinking about the NFL. Some quick hits on what you've said that I took away:

• Defense is still relevant even in the offensive NFL era.
• You simply can't lose with an elite passer with mobility, but that may not be the winning formula for every coach/team/fFO.
• KS system still features a pocket passer despite the influx of talent on the DL, less talent/prep at OL which means a more mobile QB than we've seen in his offenses in the past (can Kyle evolve is the implied question I think)
• Running the ball and investing resources ro be successful here is still a winning strategy/foundation on which to build your offense regardless of how talented the QB will be.
• We might need patience in walking into the right scenario where we hit on a true FQB who can join an KS-configured team.

Please let me know if I've mis-stated anything above.

I think defense is still relevant in the NFL, specifically the Nickel Defense.

Kyles offense - I think has been really hampered by a weak center. I think every team needs a left tackle (or QB blindside protector - that could be a LT or RT) having said that, Kyle's offense relies on the run to really open up some passing lanes (QB boot pass), and to his offensive detriment, I don't think he's had a really good center here with the 49ers. A good center really makes the run game very hard to stop. Once an offensive line can reliably move the center of the defense, it weakens that defense tremendously.

Every offensive style would be improved by an elite passer that is mobile. The problem is those are very rare, they are either great passers or great runners, and not usually both. Steve was both a great runner and a great passer, and it took a long time for him to develop. I'd love it if Kyle would have a Steve 2.0, but he'll have to be a very patient coach for that to happen. I think he is moving in that direction - Brock Rutter - was a very interesting 2020 pre-season QB hire. Mobile *and* supposedly could pass (but got cut). Bill had Steve sit behind Joe for a very long time and it wasn't until Bill retired that Steve Young really hit his stride. (it took that long to develop steve young ) My ideal situation is to get a very talented but raw passer that is also mobile and have him sit behind Jimmy to learn the passing game, and develop him over time. It may take years. But Steve was able to step into Joe's shoes when he was dinged and did the 1st and 2nd read and took off. Steve was a very limited QB for a long time, but both Steve and his coaches stayed with him until he developed.

All in all, I think with Jimmy we can win a Lombardi with him. We were 10 minutes away from it in his first full season. Just get more depth and a bit more talent (at edge, OLine, DB etc...) and I think 2021 would be more line 2019.

I think we can too. I'm perfectly fine running it back one more time with him. If he shows he just can't do it, then we can put our resources into drafting a QB in 2022. Some may argue it will be more expensive then because we will draft lower if Jimmy starts. Very true, but we also won't have the holes on our roster after 2021 that we have right now. If they go for a QB right now, I won't be mad. But I'm also not bothered if they wait either.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by kirkscrafford:
i love reading these scenarios. lots of thought going into these.

if we're struggling so much with the cap, are there any scenarios where a FA gets signed to the team, unless they are willing to accept the min? heck, i wasn't even sure they could/would resign Bourne. I sure as heck would not tender Mullens, that doesn't seem like a good buy at several million. I don't know how much Shon signed up for, but I think he's going to be the position to opt out again. I'd also say this may be the year that a draft pick takes Skule's place.

The only way to reliably beat the cap is to draft well and develop unheralded players well. The Cap is designed to spread talent evenly across the NFL. So by design, if you have a talented team, the Cap is supposed to come in and take your talent and shift it to other NFL teams leaving you with average or below average talent in the next season.

I think Kyle's system is designed in a big way to sustainable under the cap. The TE is one of the most important pieces of his offense, and usually TE's have cap friendly numbers. He has a genius for developing running backs that nobody wants, and so he uses that to beat the cap. (Brieda is a good example). So his offense is run-heavy.

His short passing game needs a QB like Jimmy (pocket passer, quick release, precision arm and accuracy) because of the heavy play action fakes under his system. That quick release is key to beating the defenses who try to close those passing windows in an eye blink after a play-fake. An important key to his system is having multiple players be able to catch *and* run. Juice, the RB's, the WR's, all can do both. Problem is getting the players (Pettis and Hurd misfires really hurt in 2019).

But I think with free agency coming up and the cap shrinking, and 10 draft picks, he will have opportunities in free agency to shore up some of the weaker positions. (OLine, WR, FB, RB, DB etc...) If Kyle can achieve something like half of Bill's '86 draft - and continue the development of Aiyuk, Deebo, Wilson Mostert and JImmy, I think that will give him enough talent to possibly win another Lombardi.

Indeed. We have to continue to hit on day 2 and day 3 as well as finding unheralded free agents. The success there is what got us George Kittle, it allowed us to move on from Dante Pettis, Kwon Alexander, Earl Mitchell, Matt Breida, and even Tevin Coleman.

Originally posted by kirkscrafford:
it felt like they went away from their core strategy when they started dropping big dime on dee, kwon, sherman, mckinnon, and jimmy. just think if thomas and foster would have been players and the money they would have asked for.

don't forget, i think they will get quite a few comp picks net year too.

i sort of subscribe to the bill walsh..trade down and get some inexpensive players to fill the roster. but i think l&s will combine picks to get their targeted guys. works well if you walk away with kinlaw and ba. doesn't work well with a pettis, thomas and foster.

and what is the scoop with tim harris? and if they love their TE's, why do they keep signing daniel helm?

I think they had to spend. How long are fans and the owner going to tolerate losing seasons? We are a year removed from a Super Bowl and you see how fans are reacting. You can build through the draft, but you won't hit on most picks. Even in a good draft, teams don't hit on most picks. But when you go to free agency, you overpay. Hard to get around it. I don't really think what you described is Bill Walsh's strategy. He did that ONE year because he felt the talent in 86 wasn't worth those top picks. The year prior, he traded his 1, 2, and 3 to move up for Jerry Rice. Walsh's strategy depended upon available talent.

I don't actually see them exercising McGlinchey's option, I think it's 50/50, if the 49ers truly believe in him, then they will, but I want to personally see more improvement before exercising what will be over $10.6M for 2022.

All the more reason to draft Rashawn Slater and move Dan Brunskill back to RT.