Brandon Aiyuk is a Quitter! Pick #25, 2020 NFL Draft

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
All these contracts are about gtd cash.

BUT they go hand and hand. 10 of the top 11 WRs in APY is also top 11 in GTD cash.

I just don't understand why people keep trying to steer that conversation to GTD money.

Because that's what these guys care most about

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by miked1978:
Also something to consider is state taxes. If looking at it correctly PA only gets taxed 3% on income compared to 13% in CA ???

When your talking 26 mill from SF vs 28 mill from Pitt its a lot more than that 2 million due to taxes.
__PRESENT__PRESENT

Players also get taxed based on where they play that week, not where their home team is (unless it's a home game).

half the games are at a lower tax rate.....

I did not look it back up since we talked about this earlier in the thread....but I believe ALL of the signing bonus gets taxed as well. It could add up pretty fast....

ok I went and looked it back up, in Cali a signing bonus is going to have full federal withholding and 13.3 state.

So to use Bosa as an example that 6.6m in savings on his signing bonus if he went to say...the texans or dolphins with a similar contract. He would save about 2.2m a year by removing the 13.3 tax and replacing it with 0% state tax on half his games.

So 17m over 5 years in that example or 3.4m per year on Bosa....

I could see BA saving about 2m a year IF he went to Texas or Florida...probably no...t in most other states.

Originally posted by Jakemall:
Actually there are 2 years out for the 4 year extension. 33m cap in 2026 and 41m cap in 2028. Hey if we can sign BA to a 4 year extension, that changes the mix a bit..but we haven't been doing more than 3 years.

Yes the risk is less. Let's run the numbers. Year 1: risk 14m vs 77m. Year two risk 22m vs 51m. Year three 28m vs 26m. ASB's number decreases as the guaranteed has been earned. BA's tags are independent and don't mean anything until the year of the tag.

Cap hit AND dead money are the two things we should be concerned with. Paying for a player that isn't on the team is pretty painful.

We can't really compare Deebo's contract. Situation was different and money was certainly different. If we pretend that BA gets a similar contract to ASB, even with a 4 year extension you have to sub in BA's current year of 14m which skews the numbers quite a bit. 14m with a 4m share of a signing bonus is still 18m on the 1st year cap. I suppose you could work it out so that BA took a salary hit on the first year of the extension, but I find that unlikely. Probably looking at 20m min. So that's 38m vs the current 36m. We're not even getting into dead money if BA doesn't continue to perform and we cut loose (highly improbable but needs to be considered).

The complicating factor, I think, is fitting in the Purdy contract with a front loaded type deal with the Aiyuk contract with a similarly front loaded deal. Why is *front loading* that important? As you alluded to -- *injuries.* (Dee Ford's geriatrick knee injury - for example) Dee Ford was on the 49er payroll for two years after he effectively retired.

Front loaded deals are very friendly towards injuries and premature aging of your stars. I remember Pierre Garcon going from hero to Zero in a year.

With contracts as huge as Aiyuk's Deebos, Bosa's and Purdy's - those front loading factors are very important in my opinion. This helps avoid cap hell despite *overpaying* your stars and also maintains cap flexibility if unexpected injuries or retirements happen to your players.

The reason this is all happening is because of the front office's success in getting great players. It's a blessing to be able to have these probelms. I'm pretty sure the Jets or the Texans would love these problems vs the problems they currently have.

Originally posted by TrojanPV:
Title window is open this year. Trading him for future picks does nothing.

I also don't believe he will sit out. That just hurts his own value (to the Niners or someone else).

He's a good player but WR just isn't where to spend premium money. I think we hold him to the contract, then tag and trade him.

Agree, I do think he will stay with the 49ers. I think the 49ers will sign him, but conversly - the 49ers *have* all the leverage and I can see the 49ers keeping him at his 14 million 5th year option and trading him next year too. Again. 49ers have ALL the leverage here. Aiyuk has very little. 49ers don't have to do anything to keep Aiyuk. One reason I say this is because I think ShanaLynch wants that 🏆 desperately this year.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by miked1978:
Also something to consider is state taxes. If looking at it correctly PA only gets taxed 3% on income compared to 13% in CA ???

When your talking 26 mill from SF vs 28 mill from Pitt its a lot more than that 2 million due to taxes.
__PRESENT__PRESENT

Players also get taxed based on where they play that week, not where their home team is (unless it's a home game).

The league needs to work with the Feds and states and just say all players get their checks from NY (nfl hq) and they pay reciprocal taxes from there. If some states are hard up for players tax money then they can get up to the NY tax collected.

In any event I will gladly pay more taxes to live in CA than Pittsburgh because of my fair weather and food tendencies.

Originally posted by Silky:
We gotta resign him. BA and Slick Rick are our future 1/2 combo. Niners should up the offer a little, Aiyuk should sign, and both parties should show up to work Monday like George Costanza and pretend nothing ever happened.

I'd hate to lose Deebo - he's only 29 by next year, I think he can be a Hall of Fame level player if he can tighten up his route running like Aiyuk did. Having said that, if he's traded next year - that's a 15+ million cap savings and most likeley the 49ers can get a boat load of draft picks on top of that also.

Originally posted by mitpdub:
The league needs to work with the Feds and states and just say all players get their checks from NY (nfl hq) and they pay reciprocal taxes from there. If some states are hard up for players tax money then they can get up to the NY tax collected.

In any event I will gladly pay more taxes to live in CA than Pittsburgh because of my fair weather and food tendencies.

Agree, you definitely pay a good weather tax, by living in California.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Most players accept trades and contract issues as part of the game. For some reason WRs have trouble accepting this.

I agree, but the complicating factor here is that the 49ers are up against the cap (due to great players on the team being paid in the past) and having a great record as of last year.

It's probably led to the percieved notion that a guy like Brandon Aiyuk (right or wrong) can be a game changer for a bottom feeder franchise that has a ton of cap space to play with. Now add in the fact that tha WR market has exploded - and you can see the headache ShanaLynch has to deal with this year.

Originally posted by miked1978:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by miked1978:
Also something to consider is state taxes. If looking at it correctly PA only gets taxed 3% on income compared to 13% in CA ???

When your talking 26 mill from SF vs 28 mill from Pitt its a lot more than that 2 million due to taxes.
__PRESENT__PRESENT

Players also get taxed based on where they play that week, not where their home team is (unless it's a home game).

Interesting i didnt know that

this isn't a great example cause it doesn't necessarily highlight an away game but under state, you can see the other state line items.

think of it like an artist being based out of Cali but has a concert in New York - you earned that income in New York. So you're required to pay taxes.

when I travel for work, like Cali, if I'm there for a week or so - I have to file income taxes for Cali that week. It's annoying

Originally posted by tankle104:
https://overthecap.com/author/jason

everyone needs to read this article so we can all truly understand the financial side of this situation. Niners aren't far off from his value but a lot of these WR contracts are bloated.

it's a really informative read.

AB81 is the man. Here is the critical paragraph in AB writes - my opinion. And why I think the 49ers and Aiyuk are close, and that he'll most likely sign. we shall see.

When we look at Brandon Aiyuk he fits in the middle of the numbers. He has averaged 71.4 yards per game the last two years which is less than Brown, St. Brown and Waddle. Waddle is probably the high end comp for him and my guess would be that the 49ers see that as a poor contract for Miami. That said the salary difference is not too small and I think anything between $27.5M and $28.5M a year would be a fair offer. Below that is necessarily insulting but probably not giving him enough credit. Moving above that level would either be a bad contract for the team signing him or would require doing the same fake money years others have to bloat the annual value.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by mitpdub:
The league needs to work with the Feds and states and just say all players get their checks from NY (nfl hq) and they pay reciprocal taxes from there. If some states are hard up for players tax money then they can get up to the NY tax collected.

In any event I will gladly pay more taxes to live in CA than Pittsburgh because of my fair weather and food tendencies.

Agree, you definitely pay a good weather tax, by living in California.

Not me. Your asking the player to forfeit a few million from their contract bc the weather? especially when most of these players spend their offseasons away from the state they play in?

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
You don't send away a top player just because he "wants to." This is just so dumb.

* Play on 5th year option.

* Franchise Tag 6th year.

* Two 1st round picks or get out of here. Play hardball. Or a star player and a 2nd.

Assuming he's traded, I'd be ok with two day 2 picks. But I don't think he's leaving the team. I would love two number 1 picks, but that's (I think) quarterback value territory and I don't see any team in the NFL giving up that kind of draft capital for Aiyuk. I defer to the guys like NY85 who are the draft guru's on these boards.

OBJ and Adams didn't get two 1sts but they got close. But yeah, two 1sts is typically limited to just QB and star edge rusher trades.

Actually, Jalen Ramsey is a corner and he netted two 1sts; Jamaal Adams is a safety and he netted two 1sts. So it's possible.

AB81 says the stats that Aiyuk had places him a little bit below the elite WR's (or that's how I read his article), and so to me, I agree - it's possible but not likely and that's why I think only the Steelers and the Browns (and the 49ers are looking for a 3rd party team) are still in trade talks.

Originally posted by miked1978:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by mitpdub:
The league needs to work with the Feds and states and just say all players get their checks from NY (nfl hq) and they pay reciprocal taxes from there. If some states are hard up for players tax money then they can get up to the NY tax collected.

In any event I will gladly pay more taxes to live in CA than Pittsburgh because of my fair weather and food tendencies.

Agree, you definitely pay a good weather tax, by living in California.

Not me. Your asking the player to forfeit a few million from their contract bc the weather? especially when most of these players spend their offseasons away from the state they play in?

I think California has about 130+ billionairs in the state. But most of their taxes are deffered or avoided because of being owners of their respective businesses. (The York Family being one of them) That's the major difference between an owner of a business and an employee - pretax vs post tax expenses.

As for Aiyuk, he's an employee. The government gets the bite of his income first before he does, thats an unfortunate truth for him and most employees.

Originally posted by mitpdub:
The league needs to work with the Feds and states and just say all players get their checks from NY (nfl hq) and they pay reciprocal taxes from there. If some states are hard up for players tax money then they can get up to the NY tax collected.

In any event I will gladly pay more taxes to live in CA than Pittsburgh because of my fair weather and food tendencies.

I feel like each state will get your money one way or the other lol. Quality of life matters in all of it. I'll pass on Pittsburgh.

fwiw BA moved his family out to CA this off season.

Originally posted by tankle104:

49ers defensive end Arik Armstead shares a game check.

He makes $393,055 a game.

49.3% comes out in taxes. pic.twitter.com/y3X7MBTpEU

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) November 3, 2023

this isn't a great example cause it doesn't necessarily highlight an away game but under state, you can see the other state line items.

think of it like an artist being based out of Cali but has a concert in New York - you earned that income in New York. So you're required to pay taxes.

when I travel for work, like Cali, if I'm there for a week or so - I have to file income taxes for Cali that week. It's annoying

Lol, yeah F that