2018 vs. 2019: How Many Wins Have We Added? | Page 3

OnTheClock · 2019-05-07T12:18:52-07:00

I thought it would be neat to go ahead and break down the 2018 team vs. 2019 roster and discuss the major differences to see just how many potential wins we should have added via off-season transactions. We've addressed most, but not all weaknesses. However, with a healthier roster in general, it's hard to imagine us repeating anything similar to what we managed last season. Why? Well let me start with this... 2018 Losses tied heavily to a single, awful play: 24-16 Loss to Vikings: Alfred Morris fumble on the goal line. 27-29 Loss to Chargers: Celek flips pass up in the air at the goal line, huge runback ensues, Chargers score. 33-30 Loss to Packers: Buckner sacks Rodgers on 3rd down in OT but Sherman gets called for a penalty. Packers drive down & score. 18-15 Loss to Cardinals: 7 seconds, 1 TO left, ball at ARI 45. High snap over everyone. Game over. 27-23 Loss to Giants: 23-20, ball at NYG 49, 2nd & 20. Witherspoon PI puts ball at our 35. Giants score 3 plays later. 14-9 Loss to Bears: 4th down in CHI territory, Mullens scrambles right and stares downfield, with 30 yards of open grass in front. Never sees it, stays behind LOS, throws ball out of bounds. Game over. Alright, now let's look at the 2019 Roster Changes and What Difference it Could've Made: 1. Weapons added on offense: Jalen Hurd, Deebo Samuel, Kaden Smith, Tevin Coleman, McKinnon (returning from injury). I am sure the Morris fumble and Celek dropped haunted them for a while. They added guys they hope we can trust to hang onto the ball in RB Coleman and TE Smith who was known for soft hands and clutch catches. + 1 Win 2. Return of Jimmy Garoppolo who hopefully plays 16 games instead of 3. Bet he would've run against Chicago. + 1 Win 3. Secondary additions: Jason Verrett, Tim Harris, Adrian Colbert (return from injury). Front 7/Pass Rush Additions: Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Demontre Moore, Kentavius Street (returning from injury). Numerous games we simply couldn't close out due to defensive deficiency and no ability to create turnovers, such as the Packer game and Giants game. + 2 wins 4. Offensive line additions: Richburg's health, Ben Garland, Willie Beavers, Wesley Johnson, Justin Skule, Daniel Brunskill. The team started giving snaps to Garnett at center late last year over Magnuson. Garnett actually played fine at OG in limited action. While I thought Mags was promising in 2017, this leads me to believe he actually doesn't have the edge over Garnett anymore. The addition of Garland who can also play center means we probably want more experience there so we don't have another Arizona debacle. That alone, plus Richburg's return to health should net one more win. +1 win 5. Special teams additions: Jonathan Brown, Mitch Wishnowsky, Raheem Mostert (return from injury). Brown has the ability to kick 60+ yard FGs. If Gould refuses to play and we don't sign anyone else, we may rely on him to win some games. That's a big risk. - 1 win. Mostert's return gives us another weapon on the coverage team and as a return man if we use him there. Wishnowsky may be good, but is unproven. Neutral net gain here with those two, -1 win over all. This changes to 0 net gain/loss if Gould returns. Summary Analysis: A bad team with CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens should've beaten two playoff teams in the Chargers and Bears, respectively, and our injury depleted squad with a roster consisting of backup caliber receivers, DEs, OLBs, safeties, and QBs, still could've gone 8-8 last year when you look at how many close games we lost. Considering all the above information, I think we've added roughly 5 wins in terms of talent value and this team is plenty good enough to pull off at least 9-10 wins now with their QB back, new WRs/TEs, new pass rushers, and others returning from injury.

May 7, 2019 at 9:19 PM

#31

KeepRabbitsOut
Veteran
Posts: 6,412

W - Bucs
W - Bengals
W - Steelers
L - Browns
L - Rams
L - Redskins
W - Panthers
W - Cards
W - Sea
W - Cards
L - Packers
L - Ravens
L - Saints
L - Falcons
L - Rams
W - Sea

plus 4

May 8, 2019 at 2:17 AM

#32

DRCHOWDER
Veteran
Posts: 21,566

Moral victories, over 49

May 8, 2019 at 3:10 AM

#33

mayo49
Veteran
Posts: 65,216

We've got a brutal schedule.

May 8, 2019 at 6:28 AM

#34

SoCold
Hall of Dumb
Posts: 133,090

I really want to expect a winning season from this group.

Can the top 10 players stay healthy. Who's going to show up?

Offense
Jimmy G
Kittle
Jet
Pettis
?

Defense
Buckner
Sherm
D Ford
Bosa
?

Looking at the schedule I see maybe 8 wins. Kyle gonna need to get these guys fired up to win some tough road games. Something they couldn't do last year.

May 9, 2019 at 9:39 PM

#35

pasodoc9er
Veteran
Posts: 21,040

Originally posted by SoCold:
I really want to expect a winning season from this group.

Can the top 10 players stay healthy. Who's going to show up?

Offense
Jimmy G
Kittle
Jet
Pettis
?

Defense
Buckner
Sherm
D Ford
Bosa
?

Looking at the schedule I see maybe 8 wins. Kyle gonna need to get these guys fired up to win some tough road games. Something they couldn't do last year.

Ok, will add a little to O and a tad to D

Jimmy
Kittle
Jet
Pettis
Joe S
McG
Richburg
Laken and person
Brieda
Kaden
TT
Marquise
Hurd
Deebo

Buck
Bosa
Dee
Solomon
Warner
Kwon
New guy
Sherm
Tartt et al....and if 1 of 4 turns out to be a starter, we'll all be happy

Plus add 1 DB and 1 OG from cap cuts just before start of season

Finally we have a. Team plus extra RBs + extra QB and a very nice punter...and i sure hope Gould

For a change we actually have 22 guys to start plus good depth at DT, and WR/RB.

I think we win those 6 games we were in last yr, plus the 4 we did win. Recall most of those games were played with a shell of a team,, not 11 starters between O and D total. Maybe not that many. Best OC out there. Backups for Saleh if he can't improve, and very big improvement at DB and DL coaches...both positioned to take over DC if Saleh doesn't progress this yr.

So 10 game and an O and D all with mostly starters. Plus the cap cuts yet to come at OG and DB. I like us for 10. Losses look like:

at SEA
At LAR
Saints
Maybe Pitts
And then 2 others

May 9, 2019 at 10:48 PM

#36

AB81Rules
Hall of Fame
Posts: 34,071

Originally posted by BleedsRedNGold:

Originally posted by pdizo916:
With jimmy g returning: +4

With FA/draft. -2

Net improvement. 2

So with Ford and Bosa our team took a step back? Fire your weed man.

1. He's probably 1 of those fans who still are mad we didn't sign Earl Thomas, and 2. I'm surprised he didn't give a -2 for FA and a -2 for Draft, so -4 combined.

May 9, 2019 at 10:56 PM

#37

RTFirefly
Veteran
Posts: 3,262

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by BleedsRedNGold:

Originally posted by pdizo916:
With jimmy g returning: +4

With FA/draft. -2

Net improvement. 2

So with Ford and Bosa our team took a step back? Fire your weed man.

1. He's probably 1 of those fans who still are mad we didn't sign Earl Thomas, and 2. I'm surprised he didn't give a -2 for FA and a -2 for Draft, so -4 combined.

He's mad that his team lost Le'Veon and AB and everybody still hates Big Ben.

May 10, 2019 at 12:13 AM

#38

WildBill
Veteran
Posts: 6,217

Considering all the injuries we had and when you look at the scores, it is not like we got blown out week in and week out. We lost a lot of close scores. The only thing is, if we stay healthy, the team will win many of those games and the ball will bounce our way. Who will break out this year or bounce back in some cases. I think we can get 6-8 more wins this year.

May 10, 2019 at 7:42 AM

#39

T-9ers
Veteran
Posts: 1,820

Anything less than 8 to 10 is a disappointment imo. We are spending 30 million on a QB, we used a majority of the cap space we've been saving to fill needs, and added the best pass rushing prospect in the draft. I'm willing to take a few L's due to the growing pains of a young squad but there should be a remarkable improvement to our team on the field. If not, the coaching/front office staff needs to be re-evaluated starting at Lynch and Saleh with the ladder being gone by mid-season if they aren't playing well as a unit. Plus you know, we're the 49ers and anything less than winning is unacceptable.

[ Edited by T-9ers on May 10, 2019 at 7:46 AM ]

May 10, 2019 at 8:01 AM

#40

Joecool
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Posts: 70,984

I hope we add more OL from free agency. We can't afford an OL injury. All other positions, we can sustain an injury, even QB.

May 10, 2019 at 8:50 AM

#41

Paul_Hofer
Veteran
Posts: 4,070

Another factor to consider: If the Niners perform better and win more games, teams will play against them with more intensity. As bottom dwellers last season, the Niners had the benefit of teams playing them emotionally flat in many games, particularly in the season's second half.

May 10, 2019 at 12:27 PM

#42

GarnerValleyFan
Veteran
Posts: 512

I am a Mullen fanboy: With Mullen 6 wins, with GQ 4 to 5 wins.

If the improvement is 3 wins or less, some head must .... you know what.

May 10, 2019 at 12:32 PM

#43

9moon
Veteran
Posts: 22,257

if we stay at least 80% healthy, then I expect us to be 10-6 at the very least..

May 12, 2019 at 6:04 AM

#44

paulk205
Veteran
Posts: 951

2-4. 5 if all stars align and no big injuries.

May 12, 2019 at 6:59 AM

#45

pasodoc9er
Veteran
Posts: 21,040

Originally posted by Joecool:
I hope we add more OL from free agency. We can't afford an OL injury. All other positions, we can sustain an injury, even QB.

That's why i am saying the beads for cap cuts....the late, late, can't trade an older starter who wants 3-4 yr extension, and lots of money. Taking on his remaining 1 yr contract, just like Bellichek did with Trent Brown...that is the guy i am hoping for....actually several of them. 1, and hopefully two OLs, and 1, hopefully two DBs. That would be one heckuva send off for us into the new season.

I know that is being piggy and those kinds of deals are not many. But BB makes a living off of those 1 yr rentals and that is a weapon not currently in our game bag....and it SHOULD be. There is no harm in copying a really slick move like that. I just hope we do ...and beat BB to the punch at his own game.