2018 vs. 2019: How Many Wins Have We Added? | Page 8

OnTheClock · 2019-05-07T12:18:52-07:00

I thought it would be neat to go ahead and break down the 2018 team vs. 2019 roster and discuss the major differences to see just how many potential wins we should have added via off-season transactions. We've addressed most, but not all weaknesses. However, with a healthier roster in general, it's hard to imagine us repeating anything similar to what we managed last season. Why? Well let me start with this... 2018 Losses tied heavily to a single, awful play: 24-16 Loss to Vikings: Alfred Morris fumble on the goal line. 27-29 Loss to Chargers: Celek flips pass up in the air at the goal line, huge runback ensues, Chargers score. 33-30 Loss to Packers: Buckner sacks Rodgers on 3rd down in OT but Sherman gets called for a penalty. Packers drive down & score. 18-15 Loss to Cardinals: 7 seconds, 1 TO left, ball at ARI 45. High snap over everyone. Game over. 27-23 Loss to Giants: 23-20, ball at NYG 49, 2nd & 20. Witherspoon PI puts ball at our 35. Giants score 3 plays later. 14-9 Loss to Bears: 4th down in CHI territory, Mullens scrambles right and stares downfield, with 30 yards of open grass in front. Never sees it, stays behind LOS, throws ball out of bounds. Game over. Alright, now let's look at the 2019 Roster Changes and What Difference it Could've Made: 1. Weapons added on offense: Jalen Hurd, Deebo Samuel, Kaden Smith, Tevin Coleman, McKinnon (returning from injury). I am sure the Morris fumble and Celek dropped haunted them for a while. They added guys they hope we can trust to hang onto the ball in RB Coleman and TE Smith who was known for soft hands and clutch catches. + 1 Win 2. Return of Jimmy Garoppolo who hopefully plays 16 games instead of 3. Bet he would've run against Chicago. + 1 Win 3. Secondary additions: Jason Verrett, Tim Harris, Adrian Colbert (return from injury). Front 7/Pass Rush Additions: Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Demontre Moore, Kentavius Street (returning from injury). Numerous games we simply couldn't close out due to defensive deficiency and no ability to create turnovers, such as the Packer game and Giants game. + 2 wins 4. Offensive line additions: Richburg's health, Ben Garland, Willie Beavers, Wesley Johnson, Justin Skule, Daniel Brunskill. The team started giving snaps to Garnett at center late last year over Magnuson. Garnett actually played fine at OG in limited action. While I thought Mags was promising in 2017, this leads me to believe he actually doesn't have the edge over Garnett anymore. The addition of Garland who can also play center means we probably want more experience there so we don't have another Arizona debacle. That alone, plus Richburg's return to health should net one more win. +1 win 5. Special teams additions: Jonathan Brown, Mitch Wishnowsky, Raheem Mostert (return from injury). Brown has the ability to kick 60+ yard FGs. If Gould refuses to play and we don't sign anyone else, we may rely on him to win some games. That's a big risk. - 1 win. Mostert's return gives us another weapon on the coverage team and as a return man if we use him there. Wishnowsky may be good, but is unproven. Neutral net gain here with those two, -1 win over all. This changes to 0 net gain/loss if Gould returns. Summary Analysis: A bad team with CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens should've beaten two playoff teams in the Chargers and Bears, respectively, and our injury depleted squad with a roster consisting of backup caliber receivers, DEs, OLBs, safeties, and QBs, still could've gone 8-8 last year when you look at how many close games we lost. Considering all the above information, I think we've added roughly 5 wins in terms of talent value and this team is plenty good enough to pull off at least 9-10 wins now with their QB back, new WRs/TEs, new pass rushers, and others returning from injury.

2018 vs. 2019: How Many Wins Have We Added?

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Jun 28, 2019 at 4:44 AM

#106

OnTheClock
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38,541

Originally posted by mayo49:
We have a brutal schedule - I'm looking at between 3-5 wins.

Total? Or added? Schedules are never what they seem honestly.

Jun 28, 2019 at 5:14 AM

#107

mayo49
Veteran
Posts: 65,216

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by mayo49:
We have a brutal schedule - I'm looking at between 3-5 wins.

Total? Or added? Schedules are never what they seem honestly.

Added.

Jun 28, 2019 at 7:01 AM

#108

OnTheClock
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38,541

Originally posted by mayo49:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by mayo49:
We have a brutal schedule - I'm looking at between 3-5 wins.

Total? Or added? Schedules are never what they seem honestly.

Added.

Gotcha, that definitely makes more sense, lol.

Jun 28, 2019 at 9:24 AM

#109

LifelongNiner
Veteran
Posts: 24,711

Originally posted by mayo49:
We have a brutal schedule - I'm looking at between 3-5 wins.

This is said every year. No one knows how tough the schedule is until games are actually played. But I agree with 3-5 added wins. 3 added (7 total would be a underachieving, but enough to stay the course) and 4 or 5 added would be the safe bet. Any more would be luck IMO. For example, if we win 10 or more it's because everyone is healthy enough to play and plays to their ability.

Jun 28, 2019 at 9:34 AM

#110

billbird2111
Veteran
Posts: 17,638

If Jimmy G. stays healthy, this team will be in contention all season long. IF he stays healthy.

I know it seems like a long time ago, but remember how good he maked the rest of the team look during that five game stretch? There is no reason why he can't do that again.

The only thing holding us back will be the defense. It was our Achilles Heel last year. It's got to improve. Hopefully, it will. Keep opposing teams under 17 points and the wins will come.

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2018 vs. 2019: How Many Wins Have We Added?