Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
the most efficient personnel grouping to pass out of last year was 12 personnel
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 4, 2023
12 personnel usage rate on pass plays:
34% - BAL
29% - KC
27% - SEA
23% - ATL
22% - GB
21% - NO
20% - TEN, PIT, HOU
19% - ARI
17% - DEN
16% - NYG, CLE, JAX, NYJ
15% - DAL, LAC
14% - PHI, WAS, CAR…
Perhaps that's why the 3rd round TE was drafted. We'll see if he can quickly get up to speed and start contributing. The one thing that might make this chart misleading a bit is that there are only a handful of teams in the league that use a fullback (21 personnel). So the list of teams that can pitch in with the 21 (fullback in) versus 12 (two TEs) "battle", as to which grouping is more efficient to pass out of is very limited. I wonder how the 49ers' 21 personnel stacks up with the league's 12 when it comes to passing efficiency (whatever that means).
I think a big takeaway from that chart is that the league's slot CB is better than the league's SAM linebacker when it comes to pass coverage. This makes sense as the slot CB could be considered a starter while the SAM LB is the part time player. So defenses will naturally place higher priority on the slot CB. 11 personnel was all the craze the past couple years - most teams used it over 60% of the time. Let's see if there is a shift to more 12/21 now.
I found it interesting that the TEs are getting higher amount of targets vs the common 2 high shell defense.
also KC adjusting to this to win a SB after losing Hill .
I assume you are referencing this tweet in that thread:
I wonder if he's still talking about 12 personnel, or TEs in general (in any grouping). Kyle has been making half hearted attempts at finding a good receiving TE2, signing old Jordan Reed, toying around with Jordan Mathews the TE formerly known as a WR, hoping Woerner would develop into a decent receiving TE. He finally went out and spent decent draft capital on a TE prospect.I love it also (and TE-targets are having more success vs en vogue 2-high shell defenses than WR or RB targets as well)
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 4, 2023
Belichick spoke in depth about the pros and cons between having a FB on the field (21) versus a second TE (12). Long story short, a FB is better for the run game, a second TE is better for the pass game.
Here is Bellichick breaking down the three tight end formation for the Browns. I think there's a possibility Kyle is going to go three tight end base with Purdy being able to pass so arcuately from it.
When you say "3TE base", what do you mean? That this 3TE grouping will be replacing their usual 21 personnel (2rb/1te/2wr) as the primary grouping that keeps the defense's base personnel (4 DBs) on the field?
"Purdy being able to pass so arcuately from it". When did they do this last season? I don't recall Kittle Dwelley and Woerner being on the field at the same time last season.
Well, let me ask you why ShanaLynch drafted two tight ends instead of a running back this draft? Of course nobody knows, I"m just conjecturing too. Why 3 tight ends? Why more than one tight end? Here's my take.
First reason is to protect Brock Purdy on first downs. A tight end on either side will help in pass protection against elite edge rushers that can line up on the left or right side (Bosa is a great example). This would be the one back Two Tight end set. I'm hoping Latu will be ready to go against Reddick come playoff time.
Second reason is the ability to run against nickel packages, and still have the possibility of explosive passing plays. I'm still talking about the one back two tight end set. Adding a second tight end removes a WR and hence usually, you lose explosiveness because the formation is slower than a 3 wide receiver set. However, if you put CMC as a WR, you really don't lose speed. CMC is the equivalent of a Juan Jennings (note: from a cap perspective I don' t know if we can keep Jauan long term either.) You still have Aiyuk and Deebo as the WR's, and adding CMC, there is your 3rd receiver. Then you have the two tight ends, who can chip block the DE then go on a TE screen pass or, out jump the DB if you split the TE to the outside of the formation to force a DB vs TE situation. In other words, it's a strong run formation without losing much explosiveness from the passing dimension.
Third reason is Trey Lance. I think Trey has running gifts that Purdy doesn't. A three tight end set for Lance, will be helpful in his development, and assuming Brock is 100% healthy, they can insert Trey and the three tight end package on certain downs and distances to get Trey some live reps in live games. 3 TE set is a strong run formation. Not going to talk about the QB running from the formation, just go look at the Baltimore offense, nuff said. But on the passing side Defenses will have to account as Trey being a RB. They have to take a man and maybe spy Trey, and that would take a defensive coverage guy away from covering the TE's and the Receivers. That opens up more passing lanes for Trey. The Three TE set should be run on early downs and short yardage situations, to take advantage of the threat of the run, and Trey can pass to the TE's on crossers, wheels, and trails pass routes. Same thing with Purdy. Prudy doesn't have Trey's athleticism, but he does have tremendous short range accuracy and I think he can take advantage of the TE's greater catch radius against DBs, and call runs where the TE's have a size advantage in blocking vs nickel and dime DB's.
Finally, I think that third TE is going to be a possible replacement of two people - Jauan and Juszczyk. One is aging, and the other is a possible cap casualty. Combined Jauan and Juszczyk caught 40+ passes last year. I think a good second tight end is going to save cap space and get younger from the FB/OW side of things. Juszczyk is making about 7+ million a year, and the average salary for a decent to good tight end is lower than what Juszczyk is making.
