Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Originally posted by Giedi:can't wait for sass's reply lol
Originally posted by alwayssecond:
Originally posted by Typecast:
Stop treating consensus big board rankings as an objective measurement of draft value. Big boards are simply an aggregation of opinions based on varying amounts of limited data, some echo chambering, and often just blatant copying. Actual drafts also consider more than just pure player evaluation. Teams can prioritize by scheme, needs, positional value. Teams will promote or eliminate players based on character. Medical evaluations, which the public doesn't have access to, can remove players completely from consideration no matter the talent level.
But hey, you want to live and die by the consensus big boards. Let's look at the alternatives for the guys you mention. Only listing QBs if we took one in that draft, otherwise 3/4 of the best available would be a quarterback.
AHO = Arif Hasan Overall, AHF = Arif Hasan Forecasters Only, AHE = Arif Hasan Evaluators Only, MDD = Mock Draft Database, PFF = ProFootballFocus
- Jalen Hurd, WRF, Baylor - 2019.3.3 (67 Ovr)
- Ranks - 128 / 113 / 132 / 122 / NR
- Best Available
- AHO - Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida - Rank 36 - Pick 105
- AHF - Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida - Rank 45 - Pick 105
- AHE - Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State - Rank 35 - Pick 103
- MDD - Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida - Rank 37 - Pick 105
- PFF - Chase Winovich, EDGE, Michigan - Rank 29 - Pick 77
- Next Pick - Mitch Wishnowsky, P, Utah - 2019.4.8 (110 Ovr)
- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State - 2021.1.3 (3 Ovr)
- Ranks - 12 / 12 / 11 / 7 / 10
- Best Available
- AHO - Kyle Pitts, Florida, TE - Rank 2 - Pick 4
- AHF - Kyle Pitts, Florida, TE - Rank 2 - Pick 4
- AHE - Kyle Pitts, Florida, TE - Rank 2 - Pick 4
- MDD - Kyle Pitts, Florida, TE - Rank 3 - Pick 4
- PFF - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State - Rank 3 - Pick 11
- Next Pick - Aaron Banks, OG, Notre Dame - 2021.2.16 (48 Ovr)
- Trey Sermon, RBF, Ohio State - 2021.3.24 (88 Ovr)
- Ranks - 100, 97, 100, 101, 104
- Best Available
- AHO - Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse - Rank 56 - Pick 101
- AHF - Quinn Meinerz, OC, Wisconsin-Whitewater - Rank 56 - Pick 97
- AHE - Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse - Rank 54 - Pick 101
- MDD - Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse - Rank 45 - Pick 101
- PFF - Elijah Molden, NCB, Washington - Rank 35 - Pick 100
- Next Pick - Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan - 2021.3.38 (102 Ovr)
- Tyrion Davis-Price, RB, LSU - 2022.3.29 (90 Ovr)
- Ranks - 230 / 196 / 242 / 221 / 172
- Best Available
- AHO - Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss - Rank 33 - Pick 94
- AHF - Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss - Rank 33 - Pick 94
- AHE - Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss - Rank 33 - Pick 94
- MDD - Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss - Rank 33 - Pick 94
- PFF - Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina - Rank 34 - Pick 144
- Next Pick - Danny Gray, WRF, Southern Methodist - 2022.3.41 (105 Ovr)
- Danny Gray, WRF, Southern Methodist - 2022.3.41 (105 Ovr)
- Ranks - 137 / 135 / 138 / 140 / 97
- Best Available
- AHO - Perrion Winfrey, DL3T, Oklahoma - Rank 53 - Pick 108
- AHF - Perrion Winfrey, DL3T, Oklahoma - Rank 52 - Pick 108
- AHE - Perrion Winfrey, DL3T, Oklahoma - Rank 55 - Pick 108
- MDD - Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina - Rank 52 - Pick 144
- PFF - Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE, South Carolina - Rank 52 - Pick 179
- Next Pick - Spencer Burford, OG, UTSA - 2022.4.29 (134 Ovr)
- Jake Moody, PK, Michigan - 2023.3.35 (99 Ovr)
- Ranks - 275 / NA / NA / 186 / 317
- Best Available
- AHO - Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia - Rank 38 - Pick 105
- MDD - Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia - Rank 38 - Pick 105
- PFF - Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State - Rank 31 - Pick 111
- Next Pick - Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama - 2023.3.37 (101 Ovr)
- Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama - 2023.3.37 (101 Ovr)
- Ranks - 188 / NA / NA / 180 / 243
- Best Available
- AHO - Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State - Rank 40 - Pick 111
- MDD - Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL5T, Northwestern - Rank 110 - Pick 110
- PFF - Antonio Johnson, FS, Texas A&M - Rank 53 - Pick 60
- Next Pick - Darrell Luter Jr., CB, South Alabama - 2023.5.17 (155 Ovr)
- Nick Martin, OLB, Oklahoma State - 2025.3.11 (75 Ovr)
- Ranks - 192 / 179 / 203 / 170 / NA
- Best Available
- AHO - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado - Rank 22 - Picked 144
- AHF - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado - Rank 15 - Picked 144
- AHE - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado - Rank 25 - Picked 144
- MDD - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado - Rank 12 - Picked 144
- PFF - Kevin Winston Jr, SS, Penn State - Rank 33 - Picked 82
- Next Pick - Upton Stout, NCB, Western Kentucky - 2025.3.36 (100 Ovr)
- Carver Willis, OG, Washington - 2026.4.27 (127 Ovr)
- Ranks - 232 / 213 / 232 / 244 / 398
- Best Available
- AHO - Keith Abney II, NCB, Arizona State - Rank 61 - Pick 157
- AHF - Kyle Louis, OLB, Pittsburgh - Rank 62 - Pick 138
- AHE - Keith Abney II, NCB, Arizona State - Rank 59 - Pick 157
- MDD - Keith Abney II, NCB, Arizona State - Rank 62 - Pick 157
- PFF - Keith Abney II, NCB, Arizona State - Rank 50 - Pick 157
- Next Pick - Ephesians Prysock, CB, Washington - 2026.4.39 (139 Ovr)
- Enrique Cruz Jr., OT, Kansas - 2026.5.39 (179 Ovr)
- Ranks - 280 / 305 / 281 / 314 / 340
- Best Available
- AHO - Deion Burks, WRS, Oklahoma - Rank 96 - Pick 254
- AHF - Deion Burks, WRS, Oklahoma - Rank 87 - Pick 254
- AHE - Deion Burks, WRS, Oklahoma - Rank 96 - Pick 254
- MDD - Deion Burks, WRS, Oklahoma - Rank 93 - Pick 254
- PFF - Deion Burks, WRS, Oklahoma - Rank 78 - Pick 254
- Next Pick - None.
Not looking too good for those consensus big boards.
What exactly is a "hit" in your opinion? What is "successful"? Are the ones with asterisks hits or not? Make up your mind. In what world is Aiyuk not a hit?
What exactly makes Height, Black, and Stout "hits"? Is this just vibes?
There are considerations you have to make in both of these scenarios. For the drafted player, you get multiple years of relatively inexpensive control. For the veteran, you have to taken on their contract, possibly extend them, and you lose out on the opportunity costs from surrendering the picks in the trade. You also don't know if those players were available to the 49ers and at the costs those other teams paid. A side note, Hooker was paired with the Bills 5th for the 2nd from the Titans.
Sure, the drafted player is unproven, but so is the veteran for your team/scheme. The textbook example of a proven veteran not having transferrable talents to another team/scheme was Nnamdi Asomugha. Fantastic press-man corner for the Raiders. Went to Philly and was asked to play a lot of zone and was bad. He also wasn't a culture fit in Philly and never stepped into a leadership role you'd expect a highly-paid player to be.
Sauce Gardner was a two-time pro-bowler and playing at an elite level when he was traded from the Jets to the Colts. Gardner had just been extended and was considered one of, if not, the best lockdown corners in the league. Is anyone saying that trade has remotely worked out for the Colts? You bring up Jeffrey Simmons and I can think of Quinnen Williams. He hasn't been bad for the Cowboys, but has he lived up to they gave up for him? If we're just basing it on team record, the Cowboys are sitting at 4-5. Again, acquiring a veteran doesn't guarantee anything in relation to player and/or team "success", however you want to define that.
PFF did an article looking at hit rate based on snap counts. It's a pretty low bar to what most people's vibes usually are.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-historical-hit-rates-reveal-about-positional-success
excellent analysis
Agree 💯 %
Like usual, he posts facts with great logic.
Jk