John Lynch - 49ers GM

Originally posted by replikante:
"What should have happened"?
really?

seems someone's hurt after the draft,... do you think that because you've watched a couple of player's film you can evaluate better than a professional team full of scouts, doctors, coaches, etc., etc.,? well, sorry to tell you but you cannot

And for some reason you have faith in this regime that has proven every single year that they identify players at a position of need, over draft those players and pass on players who are much better.

Their 1st round whiffs alone would get most GM's fired but like I have said I give them credit for finding gems in the later rounds.

But if they had more consistent drafts we'd have at least one SB by now probably two.

Originally posted by Dshearn:
depends on what you call a "hit"

Chat GPT list a player a hit if they are starter or share a large snap count, or are a major special teams contributor.

Some sites list a hit as a second NFL contract...then some people do not even count the first 2 years.

With Chat GPT--where this is all coming from--- Someone like Drake Jackson would be a partial hit since he has started, but been injured. DJ Reed is a hit since has had a good NFL career...just not with the 49ers. Someone like Ruben Foster is not, even though he started...he was out the league quickly....but S Thomas, would he started over 40 games with multiple contracts on multiple teams.

Either way...it is the same criteria used for the entire NFL...so whatever personal criteria you choose to use (and I probably would agree), it would apply to every draft pick...so all boats would rise or drop based on whatever tide we want to measure by.

No way to easily copy and paste what GPT reports, but they have 16 clear misses and 19 clear hits .....and 4 or so players that it is too early to tell (moody-Zakelj-Luter-Davis)

They will not rate people taken in 2024 or 2025 yet (duh).

So we have 51 players taken under Shanny between 2017 and 2023 ....47 that are not under a too early to tell stage.

The hits are:
1. Kittle
2, DJ Jones
3. McGlenchey
4. Warner
5. DJ Reed
6. Bosa
7. Deebo
8. Wish
9. Greenlaw
10. BA
11. McKevits
12. JJ
13. Banks
14. Lenior
15.Huff
16.Mitchell
17.Buford
18.Purdy
19.Brown

we have Partial hits that are in a grey area like Kinlaw..he started every game last year for the Jets but did not live up to his draft status...and guys like Ahkello Witherspoon that had multiple season starting with multiple teams...and of course guys like Drake Jackson that has started but can't stay on the field....That and Moody is probably why you feel resistance with the 52% number...but chat GPT list them as hits if they had success in the NFL...I get your resistance to the number, and I share it to a degree. Even a guy like S. Thomas started for 3 different teams and 4 years of consecutive starts makes him a hit...but you and I would call him the opposite..a bust.

Again though, every NFL team is measured by the same scale...so if we go selectively tossing out guys that don't fit our personal criteria...you have to toss every other NFL teams players with similar stories.

If we tossed out these "grey area" players... Would you agree with 40%-ish hit rate? that is roughly what the 19 out of 47 gets you.

That still puts us over the NFL average by a large margin, and lines the 49ers up with the average NFL hit rate on 3rd round picks.

I have a feeling when the 2024 draft class gets graded...that too is going to push the number up...too many guys I would not bet against being a draft "hit".

1.Ricky Pearsall

2.Renardo Green

3.Dominick Puni

4.Malik Mustapha

5.Isaac Guerendo

6.Jacob Cowing

7.Jarrett Kingston

8.Tatum Bethune

Drake Jackson has zero career starts and 6 sacks in 2 years. 3 of those came in one game.

And Solomon Thomas is our worst draft pick ever considering where we took him. Right after Trey Lance.

Like I said fireable offense. But lucking into Purdy in round 7, trades for CMC and Trent Williams and taking Warner in the 3rd and Kittle in the 5th saved their jobs.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by Mankster:
I often want Offence drafted...but there is a quote from Bill Walsh that always rings in my head...

"The only way you can play defense is with athletes," Walsh told the Chicago Tribune. "If there's a flaw in your defense, it always shows up against the better teams. Offensively, you can manipulate it to take advantage of the men you have and stay clear of the men who don't have the ability to make the big play. Offensively, you can coach a system of football that can be productive. But defensively you have to have players."

That's basically what Kyle has said multiple times. You can scheme up offense, but you need legit athletes and talent on defense.

Defenses have to be proactive and reactive at the same time. They need to know what's lining up and the possibilities of the offense running certain plays. Then they need to have the physical & mental ability to respond to it properly. It's a lot to ask and why most CBs don't have have ultra long careers and/or move to safety - you slow down physically as you age.

in every position, IMO, there are elements of the game that you either have or you don't. It's usually the mental side of the game. Nearly all of these guys are exceptional athletes.

I think a mistake a lot of people make when evaluating QBs is using the same criteria as other positions on the QB. Obviously physical traits matter but a qb doesn't need to have exceptional physical traits to be an exceptional qb, like most other positions do. That's my opinion in a nutshell on it.

Originally posted by tankle104:
Defenses have to be proactive and reactive at the same time. They need to know what's lining up and the possibilities of the offense running certain plays. Then they need to have the physical & mental ability to respond to it properly. It's a lot to ask and why most CBs don't have have ultra long careers and/or move to safety - you slow down physically as you age.

in every position, IMO, there are elements of the game that you either have or you don't. It's usually the mental side of the game. Nearly all of these guys are exceptional athletes.

I think a mistake a lot of people make when evaluating QBs is using the same criteria as other positions on the QB. Obviously physical traits matter but a qb doesn't need to have exceptional physical traits to be an exceptional qb, like most other positions do. That's my opinion in a nutshell on it.

Agree with most of this… I do think you need to have plus physical traits at QB all the same. For as many physically gifted QB failures there are…there's probably just as many (or more) failures with QBs who lack physical tools that are mentally great at playing QB…but there's a lot that goes into playing exceptional at the QB position including coaching and the roster around them.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Agree with most of this… I do think you need to have plus physical traits at QB all the same. For as many physically gifted QB failures there are…there's probably just as many (or more) failures with QBs who lack physical tools that are mentally great at playing QB…but there's a lot that goes into playing exceptional at the QB position including coaching and the roster around them.

I agree, there is a set of physical requirements that are NEEDED to excel at qb. It's not at the level of other positions but it's still there. You can't be 5'6 with a noodle arm, regardless of how well you have the mental side and leadership etc. now if you have all the physical traits and the other stuff that makes you great as a qb - that's ideal. That's the best. It's insanely rare but that is ideal.

id argue, and I'm saying this to agree with you, that a ton of talent at every position across the league doesn't come to fruition cause they go to poor coaching/system/organization. Scheme and coaching matters so much. Most guys aren't "all-world" players (Bosa's, Myles garret, Aaron Donald etc that would be good pretty much anywhere), most guys are fit for certain schemes and needed to be coached up as so, not forced to try to do something they aren't and then look like failures. It's honestly a shame but just the reality of it, IMO.

I didn't understand the Collins and Floyd release at the time and now that the draft is over I wish they would have kept both.

The guys we drafted are great against the run but Bosa, Collins,Williams Floyd on passing downs looks 1000x better than anything we can put out there currently. We didn't even save much by releasing them.

f**k the OLine
- John Lynch

Originally posted by krizay:
I didn't understand the Collins and Floyd release at the time and now that the draft is over I wish they would have kept both.

The guys we drafted are great against the run but Bosa, Collins,Williams Floyd on passing downs looks 1000x better than anything we can put out there currently. We didn't even save much by releasing them.

M Collins should have been kept. Floyd imo isn't very good anymore. A lot of clean up sacks more than him getting consistent pressure and beating his dude.

I actually really like the 3 DL we got a lot (Collins is growing on me). I wish they would have spent a day 3 pick on a DPR type of guy like Swinson/Walker/Stewart.

Originally posted by tankle104:
I agree, there is a set of physical requirements that are NEEDED to excel at qb. It's not at the level of other positions but it's still there. You can't be 5'6 with a noodle arm, regardless of how well you have the mental side and leadership etc. now if you have all the physical traits and the other stuff that makes you great as a qb - that's ideal. That's the best. It's insanely rare but that is ideal.

id argue, and I'm saying this to agree with you, that a ton of talent at every position across the league doesn't come to fruition cause they go to poor coaching/system/organization. Scheme and coaching matters so much. Most guys aren't "all-world" players (Bosa's, Myles garret, Aaron Donald etc that would be good pretty much anywhere), most guys are fit for certain schemes and needed to be coached up as so, not forced to try to do something they aren't and then look like failures. It's honestly a shame but just the reality of it, IMO.

Agreed.

After sleeping on it I love this draft and we of course will see. I love we went all defense. Next year, perhaps a better class of OLinemen and do the same but reverse and go all OL.

You can't do it all in one draft when trying to fill many holes. I prefer the get one line established again as much as possible and then move over to the other side. Next year can be massive OL picks.

I love the way they did it this year. Very different than past years.

yes yes,...make them all compete for a spot.

Originally posted by 9erson3:
After sleeping on it I love this draft and we of course will see. I love we went all defense. Next year, perhaps a better class of OLinemen and do the same but reverse and go all OL.

You can't do it all in one draft when trying to fill many holes. I prefer the get one line established again as much as possible and then move over to the other side. Next year can be massive OL picks.

I love the way they did it this year. Very different than past years.

I agree. This was definitely a year to go after defensive players and WRs. The entire NFL draft reflects that. In think most teams (with a couple exceptions) did a reasonable job this year given the talent available.

One draft pick worries me. Not this season or maybe even next season. What worries me is somewhere down the road he could be a thorn in the side for the Niners.

Jalen Milroe. I know he's not a polished passer but he has the arm strength and ridiculous athleticism to be a real force. If he gets the right coaching in Seattle we could be stuck facing him for several years. I've heard he's really bright so he may be able to learn in Seattle. If not they could convert him to RB. He wouldn't be the first QB that switched to RB or WR and became successful.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I agree. This was definitely a year to go after defensive players and WRs. The entire NFL draft reflects that. In think most teams (with a couple exceptions) did a reasonable job this year given the talent available.

One draft pick worries me. Not this season or maybe even next season. What worries me is somewhere down the road he could be a thorn in the side for the Niners.

Jalen Milroe. I know he's not a polished passer but he has the arm strength and ridiculous athleticism to be a real force. If he gets the right coaching in Seattle we could be stuck facing him for several years. I've heard he's really bright so he may be able to learn in Seattle. If not they could convert him to RB. He wouldn't be the first QB that switched to RB or WR and became successful.

It's possible. I wouldn't say I'm worried about him until I see him do well at this level but he does have a solid skill set and good head on his shoulders (from what I've read). I've watched quite a few of his games and I think he lacks proper vision and anticipation for this level, as of now, but maybe he improves. I think Seattle hired a Shanahan guy to run their system.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I agree. This was definitely a year to go after defensive players and WRs. The entire NFL draft reflects that. In think most teams (with a couple exceptions) did a reasonable job this year given the talent available.

One draft pick worries me. Not this season or maybe even next season. What worries me is somewhere down the road he could be a thorn in the side for the Niners.

Jalen Milroe. I know he's not a polished passer but he has the arm strength and ridiculous athleticism to be a real force. If he gets the right coaching in Seattle we could be stuck facing him for several years. I've heard he's really bright so he may be able to learn in Seattle. If not they could convert him to RB. He wouldn't be the first QB that switched to RB or WR and became successful.

I'm very high on Seattle and AZ. AZ has been sneaky quiet building the past couple of years. It will break out soon. The Seahags have a great new front office and coach. They seem to be doing things right early into the new regime. They look as you say a thorn but I don't think just QB.

The NFC West took a short break in toughest in league but it could be on its way back again and we just have to deal with it and I think we have this draft with OL to follow when we can to contend with anyone.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I agree. This was definitely a year to go after defensive players and WRs. The entire NFL draft reflects that. In think most teams (with a couple exceptions) did a reasonable job this year given the talent available.

One draft pick worries me. Not this season or maybe even next season. What worries me is somewhere down the road he could be a thorn in the side for the Niners.

Jalen Milroe. I know he's not a polished passer but he has the arm strength and ridiculous athleticism to be a real force. If he gets the right coaching in Seattle we could be stuck facing him for several years. I've heard he's really bright so he may be able to learn in Seattle. If not they could convert him to RB. He wouldn't be the first QB that switched to RB or WR and became successful.

It's possible. I wouldn't say I'm worried about him until I see him do well at this level but he does have a solid skill set and good head on his shoulders (from what I've read). I've watched quite a few of his games and I think he lacks proper vision and anticipation for this level, as of now, but maybe he improves. I think Seattle hired a Shanahan guy to run their system.

Like I said he's a project. The thing is I've seen him take over games just with that speed and arm strength. If it's ever harnessed he could be scary. Similar to Josh Allen in that regard except he's a better runner with not as strong an arm.