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Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
* Eagles #2 overall at 90% of 1st and 2nd rounders starting for them. Some stars too.

* 49ers #29 overall at just 43% of 1st and 2nd rounders starting for them. I'm not surprised at all. Call me not shocked. Yikes.


There's no question the 49ers have to improve their ability to hit early in the rounds but the chart is missing a good amount of context.

Like how far back are they looking? The Lance deal hurt the 49ers in him being a major miss but also eliminating two more picks off the board to improve us on this chart.

The other part of this ignores the fact that one thing the 49ers have done well is hit on later picks. So if you whiff on say Rueben Foster but nail Fred Warner that's still a win overall but obviously doesn't show up on this chart.

The idea is to improve the talent on your roster. 49ers swung big and missed big on Lance but got Brock in the 7th round. That's still a win…but keeping all those picks we lost and say drafting Rashawn Slater instead of Lance and still getting Purdy would've been a LOT better.

We gotta step up our game or we'll miss our window for sure. I'm hoping last year's draft class brings more of the same but at higher picks to hit on the really special talents.
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Originally posted by genus49:
There's no question the 49ers have to improve their ability to hit early in the rounds but the chart is missing a good amount of context.

Like how far back are they looking? The Lance deal hurt the 49ers in him being a major miss but also eliminating two more picks off the board to improve us on this chart.

The other part of this ignores the fact that one thing the 49ers have done well is hit on later picks. So if you whiff on say Rueben Foster but nail Fred Warner that's still a win overall but obviously doesn't show up on this chart.

The idea is to improve the talent on your roster. 49ers swung big and missed big on Lance but got Brock in the 7th round. That's still a win…but keeping all those picks we lost and say drafting Rashawn Slater instead of Lance and still getting Purdy would've been a LOT better.

We gotta step up our game or we'll miss our window for sure. I'm hoping last year's draft class brings more of the same but at higher picks to hit on the really special talents.

The most misleading thing about that graph is that bad teams will clearly draft more starters. Bears being #1 kind of speaks to that. Doesn't mean they drafted impactful starters.

Anyway, yes, the 49ers draft process in the early rounds has been bad. Their hit rate in the first 3 rounds is very low.

The Trey Lance trade is so historically bad. Trading 2 future 1st round picks and a future 3rd to move up 8 spots is something you can't even pull off using mock draft simulators.
  • Jcool
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Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
* Eagles #2 overall at 90% of 1st and 2nd rounders starting for them. Some stars too.

* 49ers #29 overall at just 43% of 1st and 2nd rounders starting for them. I'm not surprised at all. Call me not shocked. Yikes.


*Bears #1 91% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them: 2024: 5-12 record. Fired coach mid season.

*Saints #3 80% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: 5-12 record fired coach mid season.

*Bills #13 with 68% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them: 2024: played in AFC title game.

*Lions #16 with 62% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: 15-2 record.

*Chiefs #22 with 58% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: played in Superbowl.

*Vikings #30 with 48% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: 14-3 record.

*Commanders #32 with 36% of first and 2nd rounders tarting for them. 2024: played in NFC title game.

Originally posted by NYniner85:


"We'll be back again soon" could just be "we'll be playing there in 2026 (either in the Super Bowl or 2026 regular season)"
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by NYniner85:


"We'll be back again soon" could just be "we'll be playing there in 2026 (either in the Super Bowl or 2026 regular season)"

No no no….he wants to play for the 49ers

Dude is out of his mind if he thinks the Raiders are gonna be playing for a SB in a yr (I don't think we play Vegas this yr during the regular season).
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by NYniner85:


"We'll be back again soon" could just be "we'll be playing there in 2026 (either in the Super Bowl or 2026 regular season)"

No no no….he wants to play for the 49ers

Dude is out of his mind if he thinks the Raiders are gonna be playing for a SB in a yr (I don't think we play Vegas this yr during the regular season).

Your parentheses is correct—our next regular season game against them is 2026 (at Levi's).
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by NYniner85:


"We'll be back again soon" could just be "we'll be playing there in 2026 (either in the Super Bowl or 2026 regular season)"

No no no….he wants to play for the 49ers

Dude is out of his mind if he thinks the Raiders are gonna be playing for a SB in a yr (I don't think we play Vegas this yr during the regular season).

Your parentheses is correct—our next regular season game against them is 2026 (at Levi's).

I'd gladly give them a 2025 and 2026 2nd along with Deebo for Maxx.

IMO his trade value will be similar to what Brian burns went for (2nd/5th and swapped extra 5ths).

imo that trade offer would be top of the market.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by NYniner85:


"We'll be back again soon" could just be "we'll be playing there in 2026 (either in the Super Bowl or 2026 regular season)"

No no no….he wants to play for the 49ers

Dude is out of his mind if he thinks the Raiders are gonna be playing for a SB in a yr (I don't think we play Vegas this yr during the regular season).

Your parentheses is correct—our next regular season game against them is 2026 (at Levi's).

I'd gladly give them a 2025 and 2026 2nd along with Deebo for Maxx.

IMO his trade value will be similar to what Brian burns went for (2nd/5th and swapped extra 5ths).

imo that trade offer would be top of the market.

That would arguably be better than trading #11 and change for Myles Garrett—though I think Crosby's contract is more expensive for a team trading for him? (For Garrett it's really just the extension you have to worry about).

Getting Crosby and keeping #11 would be a massive win, though. That #11 could be massive if we just get the right pick for our OL or IDL.
[ Edited by Fanaticofnfl on Feb 17, 2025 at 8:53 AM ]
Originally posted by Jcool:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
* Eagles #2 overall at 90% of 1st and 2nd rounders starting for them. Some stars too.

* 49ers #29 overall at just 43% of 1st and 2nd rounders starting for them. I'm not surprised at all. Call me not shocked. Yikes.


*Bears #1 91% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them: 2024: 5-12 record. Fired coach mid season.

*Saints #3 80% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: 5-12 record fired coach mid season.

*Bills #13 with 68% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them: 2024: played in AFC title game.

*Lions #16 with 62% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: 15-2 record.

*Chiefs #22 with 58% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: played in Superbowl.

*Vikings #30 with 48% of first and 2nd rounders starting for them. 2024: 14-3 record.

*Commanders #32 with 36% of first and 2nd rounders tarting for them. 2024: played in NFC title game.


The NFL average for 1st round picks over the last 20 years is 43% so that makes the 49ers average. The worst position has been WR at 23%. The best iscenter at 93%. Not that bad when you consider that they had about half their picks were in the second half of the 1st round and several were at the end of the round.

In the grand scheme of things it doean't mattr whether you find talent in round one, round 5 or round 7.
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
That would arguably be better than trading #11 and change for Myles Garrett—though I think Crosby's contract is more expensive for a team trading for him? (For Garrett it's really just the extension you have to worry about).

Getting Crosby and keeping #11 would be a massive win, though. That #11 could be massive if we just get the right pick for our OL or IDL.

That 11th overall pick is pretty valuable. We could try and move down to recoup some picks in a trade scenario like that.

more than likely doesn't happen though. I would keep an eye on Joey Bosa getting cut as well.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
That would arguably be better than trading #11 and change for Myles Garrett—though I think Crosby's contract is more expensive for a team trading for him? (For Garrett it's really just the extension you have to worry about).

Getting Crosby and keeping #11 would be a massive win, though. That #11 could be massive if we just get the right pick for our OL or IDL.

That 11th overall pick is pretty valuable. We could try and move down to recoup some picks in a trade scenario like that.

more than likely doesn't happen though. I would keep an eye on Joey Bosa getting cut as well.

He's already on the team in my head. Mama Bosa has just posted a photoshop of Joey on the niners.
[ Edited by Hysterikal on Feb 17, 2025 at 9:55 AM ]
Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
That would arguably be better than trading #11 and change for Myles Garrett—though I think Crosby's contract is more expensive for a team trading for him? (For Garrett it's really just the extension you have to worry about).

Getting Crosby and keeping #11 would be a massive win, though. That #11 could be massive if we just get the right pick for our OL or IDL.

That 11th overall pick is pretty valuable. We could try and move down to recoup some picks in a trade scenario like that.

more than likely doesn't happen though. I would keep an eye on Joey Bosa getting cut as well.

He's already on the team in my head. Mama Bosa has just posted a photoshop of Joey on the niners.

Doesn't she do that every year? Lol
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
That would arguably be better than trading #11 and change for Myles Garrett—though I think Crosby's contract is more expensive for a team trading for him? (For Garrett it's really just the extension you have to worry about).

Getting Crosby and keeping #11 would be a massive win, though. That #11 could be massive if we just get the right pick for our OL or IDL.

That 11th overall pick is pretty valuable. We could try and move down to recoup some picks in a trade scenario like that.

more than likely doesn't happen though. I would keep an eye on Joey Bosa getting cut as well.

He's already on the team in my head. Mama Bosa has just posted a photoshop of Joey on the niners.

Doesn't she do that every year? Lol

I don't know but the Bosas seem like a bunch of mamas boys and I'm sure Joey would like to make his mom happy.
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