Originally posted by paulk205:
Friend, who cares where "#11 is valued at" in some chart? Who cares? Kiper? Draftniks? Why? Why do they matter?
The correct way to see it is: are you picking two players at #11 and next year's 1st rounder (one hopes at #32
) who are going to produce as much as one of the three top defensive players in the NFL in his prime? A proven quality against two possibles at best? When our own star core is aging fast?
Possibly. Unlikely. You have to hit on both youngsters. The draft bust rate for the 1st round is about 2 to 1, and the star rate is probably 1 in 10. Garett is not a certainty (who is?) but he's damn more likely to hit immediately than one rookie this year and another next year.
The Rams, who everyone is using as the yardstick here, had no problem "mortgaging their future"... and have a championship to show for it.
"Value" has, well, value when you are rebuilding, or when you are several pieces away. We are not one piece away (no team is), but we are quite talented yet but our talent is aging. The time to strike is now. The questions are: Do we like Garett? Can we fit him under the cap? Forget "value".
Now, I'm not saying to pull a Ricky Williams trade here, nor a Herschel Walker one. We still need to pick a bunch of players. Luckily we have a boatload of picks. Pick them and hope some of them contribute quickly. But the same holds for whoever gets picked (by whoever) at #11. You hope, you do not KNOW. You don't quite know with a veteran superstar either (see Haynesworth, Albert), but the chances are better.
>>Friend, who cares where "#11 is valued at" in some chart? Who cares?
Well, every single GM in the NFL cares for one, as well they should. So if no one should care about value.....then maybe a team should offer their next 10 first round picks to us for Jake Moody? I mean, according to you "who cares" about value. Doesn't really make any sense, does it.
>>You have to hit on both youngsters..
No, actually you'd just have to hit on one of them....hitting on both would be awesome though. Hitting on one player who became a superstar and we get them cheap for 5 years is very very significant. Hitting on both would be simply amazing. But we wouldn't "have" to hit on both.
>>"Value" has, well, value when you are rebuilding, or when you are several pieces away..
Nope, value always has value ....to suggest there is value only in the situation of a rebuild or a "one piece away" is simply not correct. Successful teams are always trying to hit on their drafts, so that they can stay in the hunt each year. If you really believe what you wrote, then unless a team is in a rebuild or one piece away, then there is no value in the draft position. So according to you a team can trade it's 14th pick in round one to a team for it's 28th round one pick straight up because the 14th pick has no value? Sorry, I'm noy buying that logic. Value should always be considered, and it exists even when a team is not in a rebuild or one piece away. Would you be okay if, this year or any other year, the 49ers traded our 11th pick in the 1st round for another teams 22nd round pick straight up? If not, then value exists. Simply put, the 11th pick has more value than the 22nd pick. There is no guarantee as to the outcome of either of those picks, but to suggest there is no value is incorrect. The 11th pick is more valuable than the 22nd pick because more players will be available for the 11th pick. Whether of not we hit on that pick is a separate matter.
>>Do we like Garett? Can we fit him under the cap? Forget "value"
Would love to get Garett......but writing "forget value" is where we don't agree. If you really mean "forget value", then you should, in theory, be okay with giving up 50 of our first round picks for Garett, as long as we 1) want him, and 2) can fit him under the cap. I hope it would be very obvious to you that we should not do that deal, because Garrett's
value is clearly not worth 50 1st round picks.