Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:This is what I was thinking also. Browns can also trade down from there and accumulate more picks whether it's this year or next year. I would be ecstatic for a 1 this year and a 2 in 2026. Heck, a 1st next year instead of 2 I will be ok too. We still have a bunch of picks to go wild and address other needs/depth in this draft.
Originally posted by paulk205:
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Two #1's is about right… if you're the Rams/Lions/Commanders and you're picking #26 or later.
If you're us and we're picking #11 then two 1sts is too many, unless it's 2026 and 2027 1sts. #11 is valued at about two #25's.
That #11 does give us leverage over the other teams I mentioned, though. #11 and a 2026 2nd (and some chips on the side) is a much more attractive offer than a lot of other teams have to offer.
I can not stress enough that for the Browns, picks >>>>> players. They're not going to want a 31-year-old Kupp or a gadget Deebo or a decent non-rookie corner. They're going to want picks. They're stuck with Watson for a few more years and Garrett wants out, so no player is going to help them short term or long term. And therefore that #11 pick is our leverage.
Friend, who cares where "#11 is valued at" in some chart? Who cares? Kiper? Draftniks? Why? Why do they matter?
The correct way to see it is: are you picking two players at #11 and next year's 1st rounder (one hopes at #32) who are going to produce as much as one of the three top defensive players in the NFL in his prime? A proven quality against two possibles at best? When our own star core is aging fast?
Possibly. Unlikely. You have to hit on both youngsters. The draft bust rate for the 1st round is about 2 to 1, and the star rate is probably 1 in 10. Garett is not a certainty (who is?) but he's damn more likely to hit immediately than one rookie this year and another next year.
The Rams, who everyone is using as the yardstick here, had no problem "mortgaging their future"... and have a championship to show for it.
"Value" has, well, value when you are rebuilding, or when you are several pieces away. We are not one piece away (no team is), but we are quite talented yet but our talent is aging. The time to strike is now. The questions are: Do we like Garett? Can we fit him under the cap? Forget "value".
Now, I'm not saying to pull a Ricky Williams trade here, nor a Herschel Walker one. We still need to pick a bunch of players. Luckily we have a boatload of picks. Pick them and hope some of them contribute quickly. But the same holds for whoever gets picked (by whoever) at #11. You hope, you do not KNOW. You don't quite know with a veteran superstar either (see Haynesworth, Albert), but the chances are better.
You're correct from our perspective, but I was looking at it from the Browns' perspective. They're going to want picks more than anything else and they want those picks to be as high quality as possible, both to justify such a trade and give them more flexibility (perhaps they trade down from #11 and get a future 1st, who knows).
This is why a trade makes at least some sort of sense. We value Garrett and the two years left on his contract highly, more highly than the Browns (who aren't competing for at least three years) do. Browns value a high 1st highly, more highly than we do.
#11, our comp 3rd and a 2026 2nd is more valuable to the Browns than, say, #28 and a 2026 1st. Our first being #11 instead of low 20's matters to the Browns.
1st traded for Miles Garrett
2nd- Darius Alexander or any other DL here
3rd
3rd
4th
4th
4th
6th
7th
7th
Sign like DJ Jones in FA and our weakness unit last year has now been solidified.
) who are going to produce as much as one of the three top defensive players in the NFL in his prime? A proven quality against two possibles at best? When our own star core is aging fast?